Population in Sengoku Jidai Japan

[candidgamera]

Looking for a recommendation on source discussing what population of SJ Japan, and relative proportion of population under arms, on the farm was.

Is this established and known, or not knowable based on available sources, records?

[Zen Blade]

Candid,

My best guess:

Yes, there probably are some records. Especially of the clans in the east and west. But, they are probably all in Japanese. Seal, might know how to get a hold of them (of may know of them off hand), but I do not. Your best hopes probably lie in trying to find some Hojo clan domestic report or Imagawa perhaps in the east. In the west, I am not sure how much attention was paid to this stuff. Also, the Shingen did a lot to make shinano more agriculturally successful.

Sorry I can't be of more help.

-Zen Blade

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Zen Blade Asai
Red Devil
Last of the RSG
Clan Tenki Council-Unity

[candidgamera]

Thanks anyway Zen, for the input.
Get any feedback elsewhere on your Onin War question?

Wondering if numbers are knowable or guessable not from written records, but from archeologic work - which leads to how much of that done? Imagine it might be quite problematic given Japan's dense population and built-up areas.

[Anjin-san]

Ok. First, I get this from James Clavell's Shogun. Now, it is a novel, but he did a lot of research and I also know he might have taken some artistic license. Unfortunately, I don't have the book right here in front of me. The story takes place in 1600, April, with the arrival of a Dutch ship and here English pilot.

Anyway, later on, a Portuguese pilot tells Blackthorn that the population of Japan is around 50 million, perhaps more -(The more I think about it, I cannot for the life of me remember what the exact numbers that Rodriguez gave him, doh!)-. Blackthorn is rocked by the number, since the population of England is no more than 3 million, Spain 8 million and the rest of Europe is no more than 30 million
.

[Zen Blade]

Anjin,

50 million seems unlikely mate....
That would mean almost 1 million per "province" or area...

perhaps 15 million?? Or, as you said it could be artistic liscense. Or, it could just be to show the inaccuracies of the Portugese data.

But, just from a growth curve perspective... 50 million, and Japan now a days is about 125million. it seems unlikely that the population would barely double in 400 years... especially when you consider that the population of the world doubled around twice in the 20th c.

-Zen Blade

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Zen Blade Asai
Red Devil
Last of the RSG
Clan Tenki Council-Unity

[candidgamera]

Am wondering looking at some of Sansom's appendices and the koku values of the fiefs, if the amount of surplus koku was known, could one back population some out of those figures - if the value of 1 koku is really enough food for a year for one man.

[FwSeal]

According to at least one estimate, the population of Japan during the height of the sengoku period was around 18 million. This figure was drawn, for the most part, by evaluating rice production on a province by province basis (a bit like what Candidgamera suggested). This figure gradually increased to somewhat less then 30 million by 1700. The population remained more or less static from there until the Meiji era. Between 1868 and 1912, the population is thought to have jumped from 30 million to 50 million. Needless to say, 50 million was reached long after the events depicted in Shogun, though 'Rodriguez' could be forgiven for his hyperbole - at least one 16th Century Western visitor to Japan described the population as 'innumerable' - as well it must have seemed to a European.
Looking province by province at koku production can give at least a vauge sense of the population of each. According to a nifty map provided with the Oda Nobunaga volume of the Rekishi Gunzo series, for example, mountainous Hida Province yielded some 38,000 koku as of 1598. Omi, on the other hand, was listed at having the potential to produce 775,379 koku. Tiny Shima province produced 17,854. I've seen a similiar map that lists the number of soldiers raised in 1600 on a province by province basis - if I can remember where I saw it, that might also be useful for making some general assumptions about the military capacity of each province.


[This message has been edited by FwSeal (edited 06-03-2001).]

[Yoshitsune]

The 'Cultural Atlas of Japan' by Collcutt, Jansen and Kumakura has some notes on historical population growth:

'Estimates of population in the early 17th Century range from 7 to 18 million. There is general agreement that the population grew rapidly until about 1720 when the first shogunate census counted 26 million (if allowance is made for samurai, court nobles and outcasts, this would have totalled about 30 million).' Thereafter, overall population growth was slower with considerable regional variation. With thriving cities and garrison towns like Osaka, Kyoto, Edo and Nagoya, Japan was highly urbanized for a pre-industrial society.'

[Tone]

O.K. here's my knowledge.

The Sengoku Jidai had no population census. However Toyotomi Hideyoshi carried out what is now called the Taiko Land Survey. Using this data as you suggest has allowed academics to estimate a population of 18 million (tying in with Seal-san etc.) for this part of Hideyoshi's rule. This is the first time in Japans' history that this can be done because the Taiko Land Survey was the first time that the value Koku was introduced.

Any reference to Koku existing before this is because later monetary documents applying to the earlier period converted the previous currency of the silver Kan into Koku. Obviously because of economic complexity and the changing real vaue of the Kan you cannot convert earlier economic figures into a population estimate.

The change in currency was a result of Hideyoshi's abolition of the Shoen landhoding system with its form of land tax, the Nengu system. The later system being based on the Koku with both the landholding and tax system called Kokudaka.

It is interesting to note that when the Taiko land survey was completed just before Hideyoshi's death the land directly under his rule amounted to 2.2 million Koku. While later addendums' to the survey put the land directly under Tokugawa Ieyasu's control early in his rule at 4 million Koku. Giving quite an interesting analogy of the manpower available to each.

All figures on Japanese population are estimates until 1920 when the first ever census was carried out giving a total of 57 million. With the current population being 126,549,976 as of July 2000.

A little note. My own opinion is that if anything the Koku method of population estimate probably gives a slightly high result. I would hedge my bets on 16-17 million.

A little note here the 1720 Shogunate census mentioned by Yoshitsune did not apparently contain accurate information on population. This was acknowledged by both the commissioning Shogunate and modern historians. Having said that the figure is recognised as probably being quite accurate.

[This message has been edited by Tone (edited 06-04-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Tone (edited 06-05-2001).]

[Tone]

Oh yeah a little extra that I forgot to mention.

In response to the book Shogun which tends to give very high populations. The populations of cities during the Sengoku Jidai are estimated as follows.

Large cities such as Nagasaki etc. are thought to number around 100,000. The principle cities of the time Osaka, Kyoto and later Edo numbered over 200,000. While by the time of Tokugawa Ieyasu's death Edo is considered the largest city in Japan with a population of about 250,000.

This is considerably lower than the book suggests, but still must have seemed ubelievable to any European visitor. Large European cities of the same period numbered no more than a few tens of thousands.

What would Rodriguez have thought if he had been lucky enough to visit Peking/Beijing where archaelogical evidence and surviving documents put the population of the city at 2 million with an incredible 1 million living inside the city walls. The city walls apparently enclosing 100 square miles of land.

[candidgamera]

FwSeal:

Many thanks for the response. Am guessing here, but is it believed that the population plateaus at 1700, because:
*Domestic food production maxed out at that point.
*Japan closing itself off limited its outside food sources from Trade. ?

Also guessing, but knowing that around 230,000 in the field for Sekigahara, kind of implies that not as many could be put under arms, because they were needed on the farm-labor intensity of rice farming?

Also, in general would it be fair to say that surplus rice for making money on sale to other provinces was not a big amount for most provinces?

The archeology angle: much activity in finding out facts from this with regard to SJ Japan?

Would Rodriguez's impression of 50 million be driven by Japanese population be focused into select areas because of where the food's grown and him extrapolating in error over Japans area a bloated number?

Yoshitsune:
Have to look for your source, and many thanks. Same question to you as to FwSeal on population slowdown.

River in Shimosa:
Is the Taiko Land Survey or extensive discussion of it in any available source?

Figures on TI verses HT's koku: would suggest who really was more powerful even when HT was in power-TI an indespensible ally.

Think it would be interesting to work population into the dynamics of STW from the economic standpoint - a touch of Pharaoh, Caesar series.

Large Asian city populations: better hygiene and experience and no discontinuity in knowledge like in Europe: Rome-Dark Ages-Medieval? At it longer and more cohesively and continuously.

Reminds of our postings about disease, Chinese ability to avoid it.

Thanks for the info.

[Tone]

Candid:

My stuff on the Taiko Land survey comes directly from references to it in historical periodicals. I don't know the published source. I would also be interested in seeing it if anyone knows about it.

Large city population certainly in Japan stems from far superior hygeine at the time. A result of the cultural importance placed on societal cohesiveness and responsibility that can still be seen in modern Japan.

The lack thereof in London lead directly to the discovery by correlation of the source of cholera and other diseases in waste contaminated drinking water. Resulting in the building of a comprehensive sewer system. The west and the east went down radicaly different paths to solve their mutual overcrowding problems. The eastern solution lead to large cities emerging earlier. While the western solution became the easiest sustainable route and therefore the present day model.

[Anjin-san]

Well, in the book, the Portugeese knew the Chinese were numbers were vast.

[candidgamera]

Tone:

Which are your prefered historical periodicals in this area?

England: do remember something about cholera, identifying its vector - to do with the water.