War in Iraq looks like last stand for al Qaeda

[Gawain of Orkeny]

War in Iraq looks like last stand for al Qaeda


By Rowan Scarborough
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

The war in Iraq is increasingly looking more like a showdown with Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda followers than a battle primarily against Saddam Hussein loyalists.
The shift is making the fight a focal point of the U.S. global war against Islamic terrorists and one that might dictate whether the U.S. wins or loses, said a senior official and an outside expert.
"If they fail in Iraq, Osama and his whole crew are finished," said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, a military author and analyst.
The changing dynamic was highlighted this week when the U.S. military launched a major offensive in western Iraq, primarily against foreign jihadists who crossed the border with Syria to join the al Qaeda network in Iraq led by Abu Musab Zarqawi. In a troubling sign, U.S. officers said Zarqawi's terrorists seemed well-trained and well-equipped.
The U.S. offensive, code named Operation Matador, entered its third day yesterday in the dusty border towns west of Baghdad near Syria. The command said three Marines and more than 100 enemy fighters have been killed.
"In the Muslim world and extremist world, this fight for Iraq is their key battle," said Gen. McInerney. "If they lose it, they lose the war. And so the imams are inciting young people, not particular well-educated, to head to Iraq. Most are going through Syria via Damascus.
"This is why Iraq is such a fundamental part of the global war on terrorism. When we finally defeat Muslim extremists, it will be the battle in Iraq that defeats them."
The war's changing nature is also illustrated by the list of the high-ranking enemy announced as captured by the new Baghdad government. Virtually all of those caught since December have been identified as lieutenants of the Jordanian-born Zarqawi, not operatives for Iraq's former dictator Saddam Hussein.
Since the January elections of the new Iraqi parliament, Zarqawi's suicide terrorists have unleashed more than 100 car bombings, killing hundreds.
On the plus side for the U.S., it is receiving a record number of intelligence tips from Iraqis that have resulted in scores of captures of Zarqawi's terrorists.
But the number of arrests also present the coalition with a sobering reality. The fact that Zarqawi has in place a larger number of cell leaders and planners means that he has built up a sizable terror network since the March 2003 invasion.
"Clearly, the insurgents are more lethal, and that is a better measure than numbers," said a senior Pentagon official, who agreed that Iraq has become pivotal in the overall global war on terror. "They continue to adapt to the changes we make. They are a thinking enemy."
Outside analysts, such as Gen. McInerney, estimate that Zarqawi has as many as 2,000 operators. The Pentagon official said Zarqawi has the ability to quickly replenish his ranks once suicide jihadists kill themselves and their targets.
The constant reinforcement is one reason that the U.S. command launched Operation Matador in an attempt to flush out and kill insurgents who found safe havens in towns near Syria.
Gen. James T. Conway, the Joint Chiefs director of operations, said at the Pentagon yesterday that the battle plan called for the 2nd Regimental Combat Team to cross the Euphrates River, then set up blocking positions near the town of Rommana, as other forces flushed out insurgents.
But most foreign fighters chose to fight instead of running toward the Marine position.
"They were decisively engaged," Gen. Conway said. "A fairly significant battle followed. ... If they are intending on being martyred, that has to be cranked into the equation with this particular enemy."
He said the fighting yesterday involved Marines and soldiers finding fixed enemy positions and then hitting them with ground and air power. He said Marines received one unconfirmed sighting of Zarqawi in the past three weeks in an area between Qaim on the Syrian border and Husaybah.
A Marine officer told a Los Angeles Times reporter, "These are the professional fighters who have come from all over the Middle East. These are people who have received training and are very well-armed."
Insurgents kidnapped the governor of Al Anbar Province, Raja Nawaf Farhan al Mahalawi. They said he would not be released until U.S. forces withdraw from Qaim, the site of intermittent fighting since Baghdad fell two years ago.

Like I said in another thread this is why the fighters encountered were better trained and armwed. Insurgency my butt. Yes there are some but these are the real trouble makers.

[Papewaio]

al Qaeda is an idea as much as an organisation. It has already done the hardest thing and that is proof of concept. al Qaeda being wiped out does not remove the concept nor does it stop the copy cats nor the other affiliate organisations like the Bali Bombers.

The idea that al Qaeda is a neatly parceled organisation that can be destroyed as a whole flies in the face of the notion of terrorist cells.

It also fails to realise that al Qaeda showed that a small coordinated team of suicide terrorists can cause 3000+ deaths and mass fear.

Nor does it take into account that al Qaeda aim is to bring down western civilisation. Which comparatively speaking it is winning with our help. Western values of freedom, innocent until proven guilty, media independence, religious freedoms, separation of religion and state, and equal rights are being thrown away for 'security'.

The same civilization that we fear that al Qaeda will impose on us we are inching into by our own hands.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Western values of freedom, innocent until proven guilty, media independence, religious freedoms, separation of religion and state, and equal rights are being thrown away for 'security'.

Bullocks

[Papewaio]

Really so do we have more or less of the above since 2001?

Not just legislation or prisoners without normal rights.

But things like PC media self-censorship, hysteria and religious hate mongoring.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

But things like PC media self-censorship

Youve got to be kidding me. Have they now anointed Bush?


hysteria and religious hate mongoring.

Where?

And what of these you mentioned


religious freedom

What religous freedom have we lost?


, separation of religion and state

So now we are coming close to a theocracy. I see more seperation here not less. Besides that its not in the constitution and total seperation is a bad thing.


equal rights

As US citizens how are our equal rights being denied?

The only thing you really have to bitch about is the patriot act. Every time we go to war we suspend some rights for securities sake. This is no dufferent and in comparison to what say FDR did in ww2 is insignificant.

[PanzerJaeger]

Western values of freedom, innocent until proven guilty, media independence, religious freedoms, separation of religion and state, and equal rights are being thrown away for 'security'.

I dont know whats happened in Australia but here in America things are completely the opposite.

[Papewaio]

I was actually thinking of how equally we apply these rights to ourselves and those we fight...

[Steppe Merc]

I dont know whats happened in Australia but here in America things are completely the opposite.
Opposite? Certaintly not. Censorship is certaintly on a rise, for sure. Some senator had an idea for profanity on air resulting in jail time! I forget the specifics, but it was nuts. Starbucks has recently refused to sell Bruce Springsteen's new CD, due to the fact it mentions sodomy and uses the f word. Why? Because they're scared of the increasing backlash against any sort of "bad" word or "inapropriate" content.

[Al Khalifah]

Starbucks has recently refused to sell Bruce Springsteen's new CD, due to the fact it mentions sodomy and uses the f word. Why? Because they're scared of the increasing backlash against any sort of "bad" word or "inapropriate" content.
I don't think that was the objective Al Qaeda wanted to achieve in the west at all. You can't blame the terrorists for that.

I agree that our personal freedoms are slowly being eroded. You can now be held, without charge, on the say so of those in power with those who care about you completely unaware of what is going on. Sounds like the Taliban regime to me.
The Patriot Act was a complete disgrace. The fact it was not published as a written piece of prose that someone could read and comprehend how it changed their rights smacks of facism to me. Rather they chose to publish a list of ammendments to existing areas of the constitution that it affects. This makes understanding the Patriot Act - the ultimate defense against tryranny and oprression - like trying to understand a Word document by only reading the Track Changes. But I suppose people are less likely to complain about changes in the law if they don't know what they are.

Personally I feel the best defense against terrorism would be to just continue normally and not make any serious ammendments to the way we live our lives or our liberties. I'm sick of only hearing on the news about 'the impending terror threat' and how I must protect my family. Yes I will do all I can to protect them, but I will not create a world in the process that I would not want them to live in. While this may sound like whiny 'liberal' rhetoric, in gauging the sucess of America's international 'terror-prevention' campaign: how many terrorist attacks were comitted on American soil by Al Qaeda in the period September 11th 1997 and Septmeber 11th 2001? Hence, what are they judging their achievement against?

[Paul Peru]

It would be great if it were their last stand.
The price is still too high, though.

[Meneldil]

Oh yeah, I can't wait for the victory of the coalition in Irak, so international terrorism and Al-Qaeda disapear, just like that.

Well, more seriously, I hope the guy quoted in this article is better as a general than as a public relation guy, cause he had not explained why would Irak be al Qaeda last stand.


"In the Muslim world and extremist world, this fight for Iraq is their key battle," said Gen. McInerney. "If they lose it, they lose the war. And so the imams are inciting young people, not particular well-educated, to head to Iraq. Most are going through Syria via Damascus.
"This is why Iraq is such a fundamental part of the global war on terrorism. When we finally defeat Muslim extremists, it will be the battle in Iraq that defeats them."

Sorry, but LOL LMAO ROFL.
Yeah, except that while the western world is fighting Muslim extremists in Irak, they are taking power in Bangladesh, in Czeczenia (sp), as well as in some part of Pakistan.
How long do you think it will take before the fall of the corrupted dictatorship (allied to the western world) of the Saudis (sp) ?
How long do you think it will take before Baluchistan and other rebelious provinces in Pakistan try to secede, and for the whole country (ruled by a corrupted dicatorship allied to the western world) to collapse into a civil war ? After all the coup that happened in this country, I hardly believe we didn't have a religious folk ruling it yet, though it will happen sooner or later.
How long do you think it will take for the local talibans to take the power in Bangladesh ? They are already executing their politic opponents, but then who care about Bangladesh ? Too bad none does, cause one day, we'll hear "Taliban are rulling Bangladesh, we must attack them and kick their ass out of there guys, this is the last fight for freedom, and Al Qaeda's last stand".
And so one in a whole lot of Asiatic and African countries, ruled by tyranical dictatorship (most of them are just as bad as Saddam was), allied to the west, and hated by their own people.

And yes, things such as democracy, freedom of speech and of information, rationality, access to a fair law system, and overall western values and civilisation are threatened in the western world.
But then, I don't hope for someone who's all for the Patriot Act and for creationism being taught in class to agree with me.

[JAG]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1481885,00.html


One month's toll in Iraq: 67 suicide bombers

US losing battle to stem flow of foreign fighters prepared to die for cause

Michael Howard in Sulaimaniya and Ewen MacAskill
Thursday May 12, 2005
The Guardian

The number of suicide attacks in Iraq has reached a record high, with more than 67 insurgents blowing themselves up in the month of April alone.

New figures revealed by diplomatic and Iraqi security sources yesterday show that of the 135 car bombings that month, which took hundreds of lives and inflicted thousands of injuries, more than half were suicide missions. The number of car bombings has doubled since March.

Article continues
The level of suicide attacks has raised fears that American and Iraqi forces are losing the battle to prevent foreign fighters, prepared to die for the cause of defeating the US occupation, entering the country.

Most suicide bombers are believed to come from outside Iraq, intelligence sources say, although they operate with local support.

A western diplomat said that, for the first time since the fall of Saddam Hussein, sui cide bombers now account for most of the car bomb attacks that are causing destruction on a daily basis. "There is an apparent free flow of suicide bombers into Iraq," he said.

A senior Iraqi official added: "Unless we can stop that flood, people will be afraid to gather in public together or lead normal lives without fear."

The warnings followed another series of blasts across the country yesterday that killed at least 71 people and wounded more than 100.

Since the new government led by prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari was announced on April 28, nearly 400 people have been killed and up to 1,000 wounded in a wave of insurgent attacks.

The bombers have targeted civilians as well as Iraq's nascent security structures and the US-led forces. The security official said in addition to the increase in car bombers there had been a rise in the number of "walk-in" suicide attacks.

He said the US military and Iraqi authorities were increasingly alarmed at the coopera tion between foreign militants in Iraq and "the domestic insurgents". This could turn "the homegrown resistance into a breeding ground for a major jihadi movement".

A US military spokesman in Iraq said the general insurgency was averaging 70 attacks a day this month, up from 30 to 40 in February and March.

Yesterday the bloodshed continued. There were five suicide bombings - one each in the central Iraqi towns of Hawija and Tikrit, and three in Baghdad. The heaviest casualties occurred in Hawija at a police and army recruitment centre. Witnesses said a man with explosives strapped to his body slipped through a security cordon and blew himself up in a line of 150 people. Iraqi police said at least 30 people had been killed and 35 injured.

"I was standing near the centre and all of a sudden it turned into a scene of dead bodies and pools of blood," said Khalaf Abbas, a police sergeant. "Windows were blown out in nearby houses, leaving the street covered with glass."

In Tikrit, about 80 miles north of Baghdad, at least 33 people were killed and 80 wounded when a suicide car bomb exploded in a market near a police station. Police said the station had been the intended target but the bomber swerved into a crowd at the market because he was unable to breach the security barriers.

"What I saw was a tragedy," said Ibrahim Mohammed, a migrant worker. "Some people had their heads torn off by the explosion, some were burned, some were ripped to pieces."

The militant group Ansar al-Sunn later claimed responsibility for the bombing.

Three car bombs targeting a police station and patrols exploded in Baghdad, killing at least four people and wounding 14, police said.

Iraq's new interior minister, Bayan Baqir Jabr, claimed the government had a grip on the security situation, saying committees of police and military officials had been formed to implement a plan to protect Iraqi cities. He gave no details.

US forces continued with a large-scale offensive in the western desert near the Syrian border, aiming to disrupt militant supply lines into Iraq.

Operation Matador was launched after intelligence suggested followers of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi had fled there from the restive towns of Falluja and Ramadi, which have also been the targets of a US-led onslaught.

The escalation in violence has not prompted a rethink in London or Washington over an early withdrawal of troops.

The British government acknowledges the violence has become heavier recently, blaming a three-month political vacuum as Iraqi politicians argued over the formation of a transitional government, completed this week, and an improvement in the efficiency of the insurgents.

Officials, who are in daily contact with Washington, are adamant that British troops will not be withdrawn until Iraqi security forces are in a position to begin a takeover.

The US, Britain and other coalition forces are mandated by the UN to remain in Iraq only until the completion of the political process in December when elections are scheduled to take place, but admit that the lack of readiness among Iraqi forces means they will remain longer.

Kim Howells, the new Foreign Office minister of state responsible for the Middle East, yesterday described the attacks as "horrendous".

He said: "These and other recent tragic incidents are the desperate acts of those seeking to destabilise the successful democratic political process reflected in the recently elected transitional government. They will not win."

In the US, the Senate voted unanimously for $76bn (£40.6bn) to fund this year's military operations in Iraq, as President Bush had requested. The vote also increased payments to families of soldiers killed in combat from $12,000 to $100,000.


Don't be so naive.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

It shows that they are desperate and fighting for their very existance and that was the whole point of this article. The Germans did more damage in the Battle of the bulge than they had done in most of the fighting proceeding it. Just because they still have a fight left in them doesnt mean their winning.

[Adrian II]

The changing dynamic was highlighted this week when the U.S. military launched a major offensive in western Iraq (..)Sorry Gawain, I'm with the majority on this one, even if I don't belong to the I told you so brigade. The 'changing dynamic' this week was four hundred dead Iraqi soldiers and civilians and U.S. military, whilst the new Iraqi government starts looking more and more like Karzai's bunch in Kabul instead of a genuine government.

God what a mess..

[Gawain of Orkeny]

God what a mess..

Is that so?

LINK (http://chrenkoff.blogspot.com/2005/03/good-news-from-iraq-part-23.html)

[Adrian II]

Is that so?

LINK (http://chrenkoff.blogspot.com/2005/03/good-news-from-iraq-part-23.html)For Christ's sake Gawain, that's a blog from a Bachelor of Arts who's looking for a job, and I think we can see why.

We're looking at four hundred dead in one week here, hello!...

[Gawain of Orkeny]

We're looking at four hundred dead in one week here, hello!...

How many did we loose at the battle of the bulge in one week?hello !


For Christ's sake Gawain, that's a blog from a Bachelor of Arts who's looking for a job, and I think we can see why.

So hes lying ?

[Adrian II]

How many did we loose at the battle of the bulge in one week? So hes lying ?I don't know, but it's inadequate either way. And the Battle of the Bulge was when the U.S. fought the number one military power in the world. Iraq in 2003 was 56th on the world list, it had suffered from two devastating wars, decades of sanctions, failed economic schemes, bouts of civil war and horrible leadership since at least 1960.

That was in 2003. This is 2005 and according to your own chief of staff, General Myers, militant resistance in the country is actually growing.

This war has become a huge mess and as long as Americans turn a blind eye on it they're going to get in deeper and deeper, and so are the Iraqi's and, in the end, all of us.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

I don't know, but it's inadequate either way. And the Battle of the Bulge was when the U.S. fought the number one military power in the world.Iraq in 2003 was 56th on the world list, it had suffered from two devastating wars, decades of sanctions, failed economic schemes, bouts of civil war and horrible leadership since at least 1960.

Your missing the point. The Germans were desperate so they gave it one final try to bring the allies to the bargaining table. AQ is getting to be in that same position. They decided to make their stand here and their losing. If they leave their image will be sorely tarnished. them to try even harder as things get worse for them hoping people like you will say exactly what your saying.

[KukriKhan]

Your missing the point. The Germans were desperate so they gave it one final try to bring the allies to the bargaining table. AQ is getting to be in that same position.

AQ wants to bargain?

[Gawain of Orkeny]

AQ wants to bargain?

Havent they always? All we have to do is give in to their demands. That has always been the case. If you call that bargaining. Do as we say or die.

[BDC]

Havent they always? All we have to do is give in to their demands. That has always been the case. If you call that bargaining. Do as we say or die.
Kind of. If you gave in they would demand more. Their status relies on there being a war and an enemy. If there is neither they just look like mad murderers.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Their status relies on there being a war and an enemy. If there is neither they just look like mad murderers.

Was there a war being waged on 911? They are just mad murderers. Thats the point.

[Adrian II]

They decided to make their stand here and their losing.Last stand? Dear Gawain, terrorists aren't your Mohicans, they don't do last stands. In 2001 they were based in Afghanistan, now they're all over my backyard and yours, they're growing as a movement and only last week they killed four hundred people under the eyes of the U.S. Army.

I can hear the 'fly paper' theoreticians murmuring in the background. Do they ever consider that it might be the other way round, Iraq being a fly paper for Americans?

[Meneldil]

So true. No wonder why many country are planning to bring their boys home.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

they're growing as a movement


I suppose you have prove of this.


I can hear the 'fly paper' theoreticians murmuring in the background. Do they ever consider that it might be the other way round, Iraq being a fly paper for Americans?

At the ratio were killing them at their fly paper will soon be overwhelmed. If this is a battle of attrition I suggest they are losing. I hear its even safe for americans to walk the streets of Faluchia without a helmet or flack jaket today. Again people like yourself are their only hope in this type of war just as peole like you were the N Vietnameses hope in that war.

[Byzantine Prince]

Oh just to make things clear AlQaeda is a made up word by neocons to con(no pun intended) you all into beleaving that we are in danger from some crazy organization that in reality has no name and is very limited in membership.


The so called sleeper cells are completely independent of this so called "alqaeda" and act alone inspied by faith and the occupation of Palestine.

[Adrian II]

At the ratio were killing them at their fly paper will soon be overwhelmed.Your fly paper costs $100 billion a year. They get theirs for free, so they've been spreading it to Indonesia, Turkey, Morocco, Spain, The Netherlands...

[KukriKhan]

Do I understand the bone of contention in this thread?

It's over the word "last", in the title (and article)?

Just checking.

[Adrian II]

Do I understand the bone of contention in this thread?

It's over the word "last", in the title (and article)?

Just checking.I guess so. It doesn't look like they're making their last stand, either within Iraq or in the world at large. And inside Iraq it isn't even clear whether the U.S. is confronting mainly Al Qaeda and/or some of its successor groups, or an entirely different composite of groups. We're two years down the road of Iraq's 'pacification' and the 'end of hostilities' and yet four hundred people, including dozens of American soldiers, are killed in one week there.

[Kanamori]

The most disturbing part is not that it is violence towards American troops, but that it is violence against the new government and its supporters. It will turn into, unless it already has and I do not fully understand the issue, a civil war, which is a very gloomy future.

[mercian billman]

Oh just to make things clear AlQaeda is a made up word by neocons to con(no pun intended) you all into beleaving that we are in danger from some crazy organization that in reality has no name and is very limited in membership.

Actually Al-Queda is not some made up word or orginization, it's a group of loosely affiliated operatives, that operate under the control of Osama Bin Ladin.



The so called sleeper cells are completely independent of this so called "alqaeda" and act alone inspied by faith and the occupation of Palestine.

And where's your proof of this?

[Adrian II]

And where's your proof of this?You're lookig for a smoking djellaba? Try Bali, Casablanca, Madrid, Amsterdam.

[bmolsson]

This terrorism thingy is far more complex than any of here can comprehend. I really wich that Gawain and the article writer was right, but I fear not. The terrorism we see today from islamofacists is here to stay. We will see it under other religions, ethnic groupings and political views in the future. The modern global society have to gear up it's legislation and law enforcement. The real challange here is not when we have killed bin Laden, but how we can keep a free, open and democratic society and at the same time be secure from predators of terrorism.......

[Al Khalifah]

I suspect that many of the fighters in Iraq are no longer terrorists, but more what could be called 'freedom-fighters', lashing out against what they see as a foreign presence on their holy soil.
Under Sadam's regime the insurgents could not act against the establishment, because Sadam would mercilessly hunt down and kill not only them, but their families too. The new regime does not inspire this level of dread and so the insurgents are far more willing to kill for their causes. The insurgents are also more able to work in the cities.

Iraq is not the last stand of Al Qaeda, because Al Qaeda is not a solid concept and so it is impossible to kill. Al Qaeda is not a snake, its a hydra, whenever you remove one of the heads, another two will appear each willing to avenge the last fallen. There will never be an end to Al Qaeda as long as there are disenfranchised Islamic fundamentalists in the world willing to invoke the name.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

I suspect that many of the fighters in Iraq are no longer terrorists, but more what could be called 'freedom-fighters', lashing out against what they see as a foreign presence on their holy soil.
Well then this article, the generals and everyone else is wrong. The whole point of this article is these men are coming from other countries. Their not even Iraqis never mind freedom fighters. Who are they trying to free the Iraqi people from ? Themselves?

[Fragony]

Bush was smart, Al quaida cannot ignore Iraq because they would lose popular support. Right now they are defeating their own cause by blowing up potential sympathisers. They have already lost.

[Adrian II]

Bush was smart, Al quaida cannot ignore Iraq because they would lose popular support. Right now they are defeating their own cause by blowing up potential sympathisers. They have already lost.The insurgents appear to be mainly Sunni muslims and they are blowing up shiites, bystanders, Americans, Iraqi soldiers and policemen, whatever. No signs of a lost cause there, unless that cause is civilisation. Meanwhile, the UN and the Iraqi authorities have just released a joint report on the worsening physical and social conditions in the country.

O, and another eight American soldiers are dead since Wednesday.

Well, as long as our little fly papers are flapping in the wind we're safe and sound, right?

[Fragony]

The insurgents appear to be mainly Sunni muslims and they are blowing up shiites, bystanders, Americans, Iraqi soldiers and policemen, whatever. No signs of a lost cause there, unless that cause is civilisation. Meanwhile, the UN and the Iraqi authorities have just released a joint report on the worsening physical and social conditions in the country.

O, and another eight American soldiers are dead since Wednesday.

Well, as long as our little fly papers are flapping in the wind we're safe and sound, right?

Iraq has a 'sucking' quality, terrorists cannot just leave it be because they would lose credibility, and instead of trials they can just be shot over there. It won't be long before the iraqi's will be lynching this trash themselve, when that happens and it won't be long, the war against terrorism will be won.

And don't think I don't care, I hate everything I read about it. In the end the Iraqi's will have a better country, it is a shame there is no inflatable happiness.

[Adrian II]

Iraq has a 'sucking' quality, terrorists cannot just leave it be because they would lose credibility, and instead of trials they can just be shot over there. It won't be long before the iraqi's will be lynching this trash themselves, when that happens and it won't be long, the war against terrorism will be won.Pipe-dreams, Fragony. We've been hearing the same story over and over again for two years. The last time was November 2004 during the battle of Falluja. That was a 'decisive blow' to the insurgents that wasn't, just like all the ones that went before.

This here is from today's news. You tell me whom the Iraqis are ready to lynch in that last sentence:


Bombs Kill 21 and Hurt 70 in Baghdad

By SABRINA TAVERNISE
Published: May 13, 2005

BAGHDAD, Iraq, May 12 - A suicide car bomber steered a white sedan into a street thick with traffic on Thursday and blew himself up, the most deadly in a series of bombing attacks that killed at least 21 people and wounded more than 70, officials and witnesses said.

Angry Iraqis threw stones at American soldiers following a car bomb explosion in eastern Baghdad. In the aftermath of the attack, an angry crowd gathered, and a policeman at the scene said the crowd turned on American troops who responded to the bombing.
I sincerely believe that you care and that you abhor the senseless killing that goes on in Iraq, but I am also convinced that you and Gawain are dead wrong.

Anthony Cordesman of CSIS, who is one of the best (and best-placed) of American analysts, has filed a series of devastating reports on the failures of U.S. policies in Iraq, the lack of judgment, the lack of financial accountability, and the lack of foresight of the American civil administration and army in Iraq. His latest analysis confirms what outsider and experienced journalists and international observers in the ground have been saying for quite some time: that the operation is a bloody mess and the U.S. is in no way 'winning' a war, let alone a war on terrorism.

In his last report (http://www.csis.org/features/050512_IraqInsurg.pdf) which came out in draft form just yesterday, Cordesman states the following:


As late as July 2004, some senior members of the Bush Administration still seemed to live in a fantasyland in terms of their public announcements, perception of the growing Iraqi hostility to the use of Coalition forces, and the size of the threat. Its spokesmen were still talking about a core insurgent force of only 5,000, when many Coalition experts on the ground in Iraq saw the core as at least 12,000-16,000.
As the report makes clear, many events and trends developed as a result of the apparently steep learning curve of the terrorists. The Sunni insurgents and islamists learned, for instance, that 'horror attacks' and suicide bombings have a maximum media impact in the West and force the U.S. Army to maintain a constant high degree of presence and alertness and cause a sense of insecurity throughout the country. By the beginning of this year their tactics had become far more sophisticated and multi-pronged:


By the spring of 2005, insurgents increasingly used such mixed attacks to strike at US facilities. For example, they used a mix of gunmen, suicide car bombs, and a large fire truck filled with explosives to attack a US marine base at Camp Gannon at Husaybah near the Syrian border on April 11, 2005.27 On May 9, 2005, they used a hospital at Haditha as an ambush point, then attacked the US forces that responded with suicide bombs once they are entered. This mix of unpredictable attacks, many slowly built up in ways difficult for US intelligence methods to detect, has greatly complicated the operations of US and Iraq forces, although scarcely defeated them.
Cordesman is also pretty clear about the fact that the insurgency is not the work of the by now mythical Al Qaida or any other conglomerate of foreign fighters. Some of them have no political goals at all, they just seek martyrdom:


The insurgent and terrorist threat in Iraq remains all too real, and it is far from clear whether the US and Iraqi government will be able to decisively defeat the various insurgent groups. It is also clear that Iraq faces a wide mix of active and potential threats, and the task that Iraqi military, security, and police forces is anything but easy.
The Sunni elements of the insurgency involve a wide range of disparate Iraqi and foreign groups, and of mixes of secular and Islamic extremist factions. There are elements tied to former Ba’athist officials, and to Iraqi and Sunni nationalists. The are elements composed of native Iraqi Sunni Islamists, groups with outside leadership and links to Al Qa’ida, and foreign volunteers with little real structure -- some of which seem to be seeking Islamic martyrdom rather than clearly defined political goals.
Tribal and clan elements play a strong role at the local level, creating additional patterns of loyalty that cut across ideology or political goals. The stated objectives of various groups range from a return of some form of Ba’athist like regime to the creation of an extremist Sunni Islamic state, with many Iraqi Sunnis acting as much out of anger and fear as any clearly articulated goals.
The report goes on to explain how and why U.S. official statements about 'diminishing insurgent activity' are unsubstantiated and often conflicting:


An internal US Army analysis in April also calculated that the apparent shift was more a shift in focus to more vulnerable non-US targets than an actual drop in incidents.37 Similarly, a study by the National Intelligence Council in the CIA, that was leaked to Newsweek, concluded that US government reporting had so many conflicting sources and methods of analysis that the resulting metrics could not be trusted, and that there was inadequate evidence to support any conclusions about whether the insurgents were being defeated.
The DIA and MNC-I-I figures, and Coalition casualty data, were also heavily skewed in favor of counts of attacks on coalition forces and grossly undercounted attacks on Iraqi civilians, and some aspects of Iraqi officials, military, and police. One of the tragedies of Iraq is that as part of its effort to spin reporting on the war in favorable directions, the Department of Defense has never publicly attempted to count Iraqi casualties of any kind, or treat Iraqi military and police casualties as partners whose sacrifice deserves recognitions. They also undercounted major acts of sabotage. Like most such partial counts they disguised important shifts in the patterns in insurgency. As the chronology in the appendix to this analysis shows, insurgents also shifted from US and Coalition to Iraqi government, Kurdish, and Shi'ite targets, and the major incidents came to include a far more bloody series of suicide bombings. As a result, it is not surprising that there was a major resurge in such activity in the months that followed, and as a new Iraqi government finally completed its selection process in late April and early May 2005. (..) The number of car bombings rose from 65 in February 2005 to 135 in April, and the total number of major attacks per day rose from 30-40 in February and March to 70 in April and May.
There appear to be some hopeful signs and redeeming factors, such as the relatively small size and lack of true mass support of the insurgent groups, their internecine fights and their tactical mistakes, the willingness of some groups to negotiate with the new government, as well as the growing number of Iraqi units taking part in the security and anti-terrorism operations. But as the report states:


Some things are clear. As Chapter III has described, threat forces have evolved, as well as Iraqi military, security, and police forces. The insurgents and terrorists have grown in capability and size, although serious fighting in Fallujah, Mosul, and Samarra may have reduced their capabilities towards the end of the year. The insurgents have also learned a great deal about how to use their weapons, build more sophisticated IEDs, plan attacks
and ambushes, improve their security, and locate and attack targets that are both soft and that produce political and media impact.
US and Iraqi efforts to thwart insurgent attacks – while tireless – are also sometimes hollow victories. As one US Marine specializing in counterinsurgency in Iraq recently noted, “Seizing the components of suicide bombs (or IED making material) is like making drug seizures, comforting, but ultimately pointless. There will always be more. Both sides are still escalating to nowhere.”
Of course today may prove to be the 'tipping point', or else tomorrow, or some day next week, next year...

I see no tipping point at all.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

I sincerely believe that you care and that you abhor the senseless killing that goes on in Iraq, but I am also convinced that you and Gawain are dead wrong.

And Im convinced were correct. OK on to another thread now that this has been settled.

[lanky316]

Well then this article, the generals and everyone else is wrong. The whole point of this article is these men are coming from other countries. Their not even Iraqis never mind freedom fighters. Who are they trying to free the Iraqi people from ? Themselves?

The fact that the trouble seems to have started with the shi'ites and Kurds the coalition forces went in to "save" has been completely lost on some people then...

[Adrian II]

And Im convinced were correct. OK on to another thread now that this has been settled.It isn't settled at all, you just walk away from it.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

It isn't settled at all, you just walk away from it.

I was just kidding

[zelda12]

I actually agree with Fragony on this one. There's only so much a country or a people can stand before they lash out. If you saw the pictures of Iraqi's Shiites dancing in the streets after the election you will understand what I'm about to say.

The Shiites are Muslims, much like the difference between Protestant's and Catholics. Now even though the Terrorists are attacking Shiites who in part support the new government, but they are also killing fellow Muslims now this is unsettling for a lot of people and as a result Al Qaeda are losing some of their support from the more ideological Muslims.

At the same time the Shiites are having funeral processions almost every day. Its only a matter of time before they lash out. Nationalism and pride are very powerful things, a prime example being the French Volunteer columns that beat of all the major powers in Europe during the 18th century because of their Nationalism and Pride. I could predict that that seething hatred and resentment of the suicide bomber's and terrorists is going to boil and boil until something really sets it off.

Then we'll see what happens, possibly a civil war but I doubt it, there is the other more worrying possibility, the Shiites blame Syria for the Terrorists and in turn terrorise Syria possibly even an invasion, albeit an unofficial one.

I'd also like to point out that terrorism in Kurdish and British controlled regions are virtually non-existent when compared to the American controlled zones. It could point to the fact that those areas are pro-government areas and that the people there are informing on the terrorists, the same may start happening elsewhere as the resentment of the attacks increases.


Then again something completely different could happen, its very hard to predict any future let alone the right one.

[Adrian II]

I was just kiddingI should have known, you never were a quitter. :bow:

[Adrian II]

The Shiites are Muslims, much like the difference between Protestant's and Catholics. Now even though the Terrorists are attacking Shiites who in part support the new government, but they are also killing fellow Muslims now this is unsettling for a lot of people and as a result Al Qaeda are losing some of their support from the more ideological Muslims.1. There is no Terrorist movement, as you can see from the above analysis by Cordesman as well as other sources. There are all sorts of movements, some (loosely) connected, others at odds with one another. It doesn't prevent them from killing Iraqi officials and security personnel, American soldiers, aid workers, etcetera.
2. Both Sunnis and Shiites want the U.S. out of the country; instead of fighting each other, they could just as well unite to oppose the American presence.
3. On the very day that Shiites start to fight the Sunnis (which is near, if Fragony and you are right), Iraq is over and done with. The Kurds will go their separate way, Iran will get even more involved, etcetera. Hardly a recipe for peace.

And no 'tipping point' in sight, my friend.

[DisruptorX]

Again people like yourself are their only hope in this type of war just as peole like you were the N Vietnameses hope in that war.

So true. Sometimes I feel that many leftists oppose the war simply because it was started by Bush. In my mind, I do not even consider this, when looking at whether or not it is a good thing. Using this as a front for Bush bashing cheapens the good things that our soldiers are doing for the Middle East in general. Strawman arguments in debating is pointless, and is why people can't seem to frankly discuss the real issues without resorting to partisan bickering and parroting of official propaganda and even outright lies from both sides. This isn't even Vietnam, though, this time our armies are actually on the offensive, and our losses are practically nothing.

As far as Terrorism goes, the hard fact is that Saudi Arabia must do something, along with other middle eastern countries that consider themselves pro-western diplomatically. I'm sure that there is a much larger population of people in Iraq with a positive attitude towards us than in Saudi Arabia. The government in Saudi Arabia (the House of Saud) came to power by appealing as a fundamentalist force and for opposing both the Ottomans (unsuccesfully) and then the Imperial powers. Of course, the Saudi gov't now is on very friendly terms with the west, because they can make a great profit by doing business with us, but the common people are still very anti-american.

And I don't just mean Saudi Arabia, so many pro-western governments in the middle east are leaders of rabidly anti-western populations. Most of the 9-11 terrorists were Arabians. This is not a coincidence. Untill the middle east has a solid middle class, making Democracy possible, and completely severs church and state, we will have terrorism. I do not think terrorism is inevitable, I think it can be stopped. I'm sure that there was a time when people thought that the Irish and English would be killing each other untill the end of time, but this is no longer the case. The church needs to seperated, and the muslim nations need to stop putting things into a "clash of east and west" perspective, which is nonsense, to use forum appropriate language. I'm sorry, you religious nut-jobs, Americans don't want to fight you. I'm sorry, the tiny nation of Israel is not responsible for any of your problems. Its easy to pick on the Jews, but unlike Hitler, the middle eastern nations are fortunately unable to do anything about them except spew hate speech.

I don't even know why I'm writing this rant, I suppose I'm just sick of hearing and reading people spewing propaganda and turning a real, important issue, that actually has a very, very real affect on the world as a whole into a meaningless sham of a debate and an exercise in partisan bullshit. I don't really care whether you are a liberal or conservative, because, contrary to what you might believe, party affiliation is an artificial construct that may tell you something about someone's value's but has absolutely no relation to whether what they say is true or false.. Of course, I'm sure I'm naturally wrong because I'm an anti-American liberal pinko-communist conservative neo-fascist imperialist American.

The solution is that the Middle East needs to do something, and that something is actively fight against the spread of rabid anti-westernism and needs to step up and denounce religious demogogues. No, sorry, your religion is not "the only true religion", yours and everyone else's, buddy. If religion has influence in politics, you can bet that there will be holy wars going on, the demogogues have nothing to lose, and everything to gain.

[bmolsson]

I actually agree with Fragony on this one. There's only so much a country or a people can stand before they lash out.


You would be amazed on how fast people forget and how easy they are to mislead. The only way to create peace in a country or a society is to keep the masses busy and have a somewhat similar standard of living.
The most stabile societys today have this......

Terrorism is a political view or religion if you like. It's a predator among ideologies, very similar to fascism. It has come to stay and we need to learn how to live with it......

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Terrorism is a political view or religion if you like. It's a predator among ideologies, very similar to fascism. It has come to stay and we need to learn how to live with it......

Thats what the state department told Reagan about the USSR . ~;)

[DisruptorX]

Thats what the state department told Reagan about the USSR . ~;)

What part of his comment were you referring to? Stalist Communism is a secular religion.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

What part of his comment were you referring to? Stalist Communism is a secular religion.

I think someones pulling my leg ~D

[Adrian II]

As far as Terrorism goes, the hard fact is that Saudi Arabia must do something, along with other middle eastern countries that consider themselves pro-western diplomatically. I'm sure that there is a much larger population of people in Iraq with a positive attitude towards us than in Saudi Arabia.Nobody knows how much support for the American presence there really is in Iraq, but I agree that it's bound to be greater than in Saudi Arabia. Todays' The Washington Post has an article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/14/AR2005051401270.html?referrer=email&referrer=email) based on some new information from DoD on the make-up of suicide squads in Iraq, and it appears that the majority could well be Saudis. These are the people mentioned in the Cordesham report as the ones who are driven by the wish to become 'martyrs' and little else. Their names are honoured on jihadist web sites and that's where the information mainly comes from. What does that tell us about the state of U.S. 'intelligence' in Iraq? Anyway, foreigners would make up about 10% of the insurgents according tot DoD, the rest are Iraqis. But the proportion of Saudis in the foreign 'battalions' seems to be pretty high. Looks like Zarqawi has found himself a new category of cannon fodder; as the Palestinian situation shows, there is an almost unlimited reservoir of such willing idiots.


Many of the suicide bombers appear to have been novices in warfare, attracted by the relative ease of access to Iraq and the lure of quick martyrdom. "This is not al Qaeda's first team," said Hammes of the National Defense University. "These are the scrubs who could never get us in the States."

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Many of the suicide bombers appear to have been novices in warfare, attracted by the relative ease of access to Iraq and the lure of quick martyrdom. "This is not al Qaeda's first team," said Hammes of the National Defense University. "These are the scrubs who could never get us in the States."

Did you ever consider this maybe because we killed most of the first team pros?

[Adrian II]

Did you ever consider this maybe because we killed most of the first team pros?I did, but where's the proof that they didn't raise new cadres? And where's the proof that second generation movements such as Takfir are suffering?

[Gawain of Orkeny]

but where's the proof that they didn't raise new cadres?

And wheres the proof that they did? And would these new cadres be better than those with years of experience. Just yesterday another high ranking AQ guy was caught who they say was supposed to be taking the place of the number 3 guy they caught a few weeks ago.

[Adrian II]

And where's the proof that they did?There is no hard evidence, but this is clearly suggested by the facts enumerated in the Cordesman report. These insurgents have clearly not taken a leaf from the North Vietnamese (as the article quoted by Lemurmania elsewhere suggests) and indeed, why should they? They take the Afghanistan campaign of 1979-1991 as their example and model (which doesn't mean they can't improve on it). Their whole programme then was: Russians out. Their whole programme now seems to be: Americans out.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Their whole programme now seems to be: Americans out.

Well they hardly seem to achieving anything other than their own deaths. We aint going anywhere. The quickest way to get us out is to stop fighting and killing people. If that what they wanted they never should have fought us in the first place and just waited for us to pour n the money and then take it back when we left. Their the main reason were still there for Petes sake.

[Adrian II]

Well they hardly seem to achieving anything other than their own deaths. We aint going anywhere.That is not for you to decide. Even now some Americans seem to buy the notion that they won the Vietnam war after the U.S. withdrew and lost the country to Communism. The same mechanic might be applied in Iraq (hand everything over to local warlords and make yourself scarce before it hits the fan) and I guess some of the insurgents must be banking on that.

[Gawain of Orkeny]

That is not for you to decide.

Or for you either. Do you really think Bush will pull out? Y=ou havent addressed my point that if they want us gone they certainly are going about it in entirely the wrong way. You cant compare this to vietnam.

PS look at the new thread about the mystery of the Iraqi insurgency.

[Adrian II]

Or for you either. Do you really think Bush will pull out?Maybe, maybe not. Nixon was a hardliner and he pulled out of Vietnam. On the other hand, it might be Bush' successor who pulls out. You're right that it isn't my decision, but then I'm not talking about your POTUS in terms of 'we'. You have a hotline? ~:cool:
PS look at the new thread about the mystery of the Iraqi insurgency.I already referred to it in my post #57 above...

[Gawain of Orkeny]

Nixon was a hardliner and he pulled out of Vietnam

Nixon campaigned for president on his promise to get us out of Nam and thats just what he did. He wasnt pulled away kicking and screaming as some see to imagine.


You have a hotline?

Yes I get emails from News Max ~D