'two shores-one china'

[nokhor]

they get so involved with the wording. 'one china', '1992 consensus', 'two shores-one china' i kinda find it fascinating. if only lives and sovereignty and honor, war and all that stuff wasn't involved.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/s/washpost/china_alters_language_on_taiwan

[bmolsson]

I think we all should stop hiding our head in the sand and acknowledge Taiwan as the free indepentend nation it actually is.......

[Degtyarev14.5]

... and acknowledge Taiwan as the free indepentend nation it actually is.......
But that's your opinion bmolsson, and the Chinese don't share it. And in this regard, their opinion carries quite a lot of clout.

To stimulate discussion, I would pose the following:

How can the Taiwanese government definitively assert their independence such that the Chinese government will openly acknowledge Taiwan as an independent state?

And please note that unless the Chinese government does just that, any Taiwanese claims to sovereignty are effectively void: the Chinese must co-operate.

I would point to East Timor to illustrate a recent case of a small, effectively powerless nation breaking away and asserting its independence of its much larger neighbour, Indonesia. The only reason this process has proven successful (and that depends upon one’s definition of “success”) is that Indonesia has – very reluctantly – agreed to let it go. And even now, East Timor hovers on the brink of anarchy: it relies upon the presence of foreign peace-keeping forces to prevent pro-Indonesia militias from reasserting their authority and plunging the country into chaos.

I honestly don’t see Taiwan surviving the twenty-first century as a perceived independent state.

EDIT: and only now, after having written and posted this, have I noticed that you are based in Jakarta, Indonesia. I assure you I cited East Timor not because of your proximity, but because of my own (Australia).

[Don Corleone]

There is no way in hell PRC will ever recognize Taiwan. Never. It means to much to their national pride and they'd give up a lot of men, money and prestige to get it back. But I disagree with your assertion that this obsession with returning Taiwan to the fold means that Taiwan couldn't be a real 'sovereign' power. North Korea doesn't recognize South Korea as an independent country and they're just as eager to get their hands on their land. That doesn't mean South Korea isn't a true country.

[Degtyarev14.5]

Then I suspect that it boils down to the larger, “aggressor” nation’s willingness to occupy the rogue breakaway state.

Surely you must admit that when the PRC invades Taiwan – I don’t see it happening within the next twenty years, but it will happen – Taiwan will cease to be a sovereign power.

Don, I do agree with you in that China’s “obsession with returning Taiwan to the fold” does not deprive Taiwan of its sovereignty, but when this obsession, one day, translates into occupational forces, I’m afraid Taiwan as an autonomous state will cease to exist.

[Papewaio]

How can it be a rogue breakaway state when it has never been occupied by Communist China?

Japan has more of a 'right' to ownership then China.

And if China can take over Taiwan because of ethnic ties then so can Britain take over NZ or Australia (or USA could do the same to A/NZ).

[Byzantine Prince]

I agree with Pape on this one. It makes a lot of sense for us to fully acknowledge Taiwan as a country. They are at least a democracy.

[Degtyarev14.5]

I agree with Pape on this one. It makes a lot of sense for us to fully acknowledge Taiwan as a country.
Yes, I don't dispute that. But what I'm getting at is that the Chinese won't offer the Taiwanese the same courtesy.

Re: being a rogue breakaway state that has never been occupied in the first place:

Pape, I see your point, and you state it quite aptly, but our perspective (yes, I share it too) counts for nothing when China ultimately decides to stake its claim.

As for Japan having more “right” to Taiwan than China: I would suggest that depends upon Japan’s willingness to assert that right. And I am, of course, talking militarily.

I would also venture to ask: if the USA decided to occupy and annex Australia or New Zealand, what could either do to stop it?

My whole point is that it all comes down to the “aggressor” state’s perspective and will, especially when the aggressor state is one so large and powerful as China, who never has and never will acknowledge Taiwan’s right to sovereignty. When the Chinese government decides the time for a takeover is ripe, who will stop them? The US?

A.

EDIT: Could I get some constructive feedback please? Am I articulating my point clearly? Does anyone see what I’m getting at?

[Papewaio]

The US and Japan.

[Degtyarev14.5]

Why?

(I’m not trolling you Pape, I promise. I respect your views.)

[Proletariat]

And South Korea.

[Byzantine Prince]

And Australia, and Indonesia.

[Papewaio]

IMDHO

Because Japan will sh!t itself at the idea of giving territory so close to Japan to an aggressor.

USA has painted itself into a corner of defending democracies lately so it would be egg on its face if it says. Well here is the population equivalent of Iraq that is already an emergent democracy that we have been backing all these years, let communist China have them.

'bout the only thing that will make either of these countries pause is the pain of the huge market economy that they may lose to France in the process... ~:cool:

[Proletariat]

USA has painted itself into a corner of defending democracies lately so it would be egg on its face if it says. Well here is the population equivalent of Iraq that is already an emergent democracy that we have been backing all these years, let communist China have them.


I don't think we care about the egg. The US must defend Taiwan because if they don't, it shows a lack of faith to it's other allies in the region (ie, Japan, South Korea). Then what you have next would be a nuclear arm's race between China, Japan, S. Korea, etc.

So America's gonna keep Taiwan safe for a long time.

[Papewaio]

Speaking of egg I'm going to lunch as I feel I am posting more aggresively the more hungry I get :bow:

[Degtyarev14.5]

When we talk of America offering its support to Taiwan, are we talking about the use of military force, or peaceful diplomatic backing?

We must bear in mind that in choosing to bring democracy to Iraq (let’s not get caught up nitpicking over the validity of that particular claim), the US wasn’t bringing its forces to bear against a military might comparable to China. Honestly, can you see the US committing to such a course of action?

EDIT: IMDHO? Sorry, what does this mean?

[Proletariat]

When we talk of America offering its support to Taiwan, are we talking about the use of military force, or peaceful diplomatic backing?

We must bear in mind that in choosing to bring democracy to Iraq (let’s not get caught up nitpicking over the validity of that particular claim), the US wasn’t bringing its forces to bear against a military might comparable to China. Honestly, can you see the US committing to such a course of action?

I think so, completely. The only way you could consider China a military might, is if they have the home field advantage. Out in Taiwan, they would be used to wipe the floor by the US, UK, AU naval forces.

[LittleGrizzly]

EDIT: IMDHO? Sorry, what does this mean?

IMDHO = In My DisHonourable Opinion

[Degtyarev14.5]

So you believe that I am overestimating China’s military strength? I’ll buy that.

That is one reason I believe that any Chinese move to annex Taiwan will not occur within the next twenty or even thirty years.

[Papewaio]

~:cheers:

EDIT: IMDHO? Sorry, what does this mean?

IMDHO = In My DisHonourable Opinion

Correct. ~:cheers: ~:cheers: ~:cheers:

[Byzantine Prince]

So you believe that I am overestimating China’s military strength? I’ll buy that.

That is one reason I believe that any Chinese move to annex Taiwan will not occur within the next twenty or even thirty years.
Yeah I'm sure their technology willll be easy to upgrade after a while. The Europeans have already started the process. That's where China's guns com from. ~;)

[bmolsson]

But that's your opinion bmolsson, and the Chinese don't share it. And in this regard, their opinion carries quite a lot of clout.

To stimulate discussion, I would pose the following:

How can the Taiwanese government definitively assert their independence such that the Chinese government will openly acknowledge Taiwan as an independent state?

And please note that unless the Chinese government does just that, any Taiwanese claims to sovereignty are effectively void: the Chinese must co-operate.

I would point to East Timor to illustrate a recent case of a small, effectively powerless nation breaking away and asserting its independence of its much larger neighbour, Indonesia. The only reason this process has proven successful (and that depends upon one’s definition of “success”) is that Indonesia has – very reluctantly – agreed to let it go. And even now, East Timor hovers on the brink of anarchy: it relies upon the presence of foreign peace-keeping forces to prevent pro-Indonesia militias from reasserting their authority and plunging the country into chaos.

I honestly don’t see Taiwan surviving the twenty-first century as a perceived independent state.

EDIT: and only now, after having written and posted this, have I noticed that you are based in Jakarta, Indonesia. I assure you I cited East Timor not because of your proximity, but because of my own (Australia).

Due to the same reasons Australia is a country and not a penal colony anymore. The same reasons most countries in the world actually are what they are. The people in the countries want it. Rather simple actually.
Can't see any reason what so ever why communist China should have any say on Taiwans future.

For your information, I believe that the creation of Timor Leste was a big mistake. Even bigger mistake was the invasion in 1976.

We are not talking about breaking up a country here, we are talking about a in reality country that is being held for ransom due to the west greedy attitude to access the Chinese market.

[King Edward]

Yeah I'm sure their technology willll be easy to upgrade after a while. The Europeans have already started the process. That's where China's guns com from. ~;)

Most of Europe has an arms sales ban to China (was put in place after the Tiannamen (sp?) Sqr Massacre. A lot of their equipment is of soviet design i believe. (although the French are lobbying to get this ban Lifted.)

The PRC has never held Taiwan, so it is slightly odd they regard it as a renegade province.

If it wasn't for the difference in military capabilities between The PRC and Nationalist China (Taiwan) then Taiwan would be flexing its muscles towards the PRC.

The Kumontang (Sp) fled China from the advancing Communist under Mao as so technically Tiawan is the true china.......

The US will continue to support Taiwan as it is a valuable trading partner and also is a foothold in the far east incase things ever get really hot over there.

The New law PRC passed a few months back is a bit of a worry as it states they can use 'non peaceful' meant to bring Taiwan under its control. Although they did state this didn't nessisarily mean war, the likes of blockades could be used but again this may lead to US intervention.

If Taiwan ever formally declares full independence the i truly believe the PRC WILL invade. and that will be a dark day for the world as the ramifications could be felt for decades after........

Note: Does anyone have a more detailed description on the US relationship with Taiwan? as i believe the PRC refuses to have diplomatic relations with anyone who recognizes Taiwans soverenty, yet the US still trades and sells weapons to Taiwan. Thanks!

[Degtyarev14.5]

Due to the same reasons Australia is a country and not a penal colony anymore. The same reasons most countries in the world actually are what they are. The people in the countries want it. Rather simple actually.
Can't see any reason what so ever why communist China should have any say on Taiwans future.
Please understand that I say this with utmost respect, but I’m afraid it is not so simple as you make out bmolsson. A hypothetical situation:

It’s 1901, and the states of the newly-federated, fledgling nation of Australia are celebrating and drinking to a bright future. Then word arrives from Motherland Britain that Queen Victoria’s reign has ended, that her son has ascended to the throne and that he and his cabinet flatly refuse to recognise Australia as an independent nation.

Furthermore, they threaten to utilise overwhelming military might to bring us back into the fold unless we acquiesce to the status quo: continued existence as a (somewhat autonomous) penal colony for the United Kingdom.

The United Kingdom’s allies support this stance.

Now, irrespective of this Great Southern Land’s residents’ wishes, I can’t imagine that under these circumstances, the notion of Australia as an independent state will be honoured by any save those very same residents.

Taiwan is fortunate in that much of the world does indeed recognise its right to self-rule, but it is a delicate situation when China, an ascendant world power, even a potential superpower given time, regards the Taiwanese territory and people as falling under its own dominion.

In short, it really isn’t that simple.

EDIT:

We are not talking about breaking up a country here, we are talking about a in reality country that is being held for ransom due to the west greedy attitude to access the Chinese market.
This is a very interesting point. I realise I'm not the owner of the thread, but can we discuss this further?

[bmolsson]

In short, it really isn’t that simple.

This is a very interesting point. I realise I'm not the owner of the thread, but can we discuss this further?


In case of Australia, well, you might have a point there....

In case of Taiwan, yes, it is that simple.

My dealings with Taiwan and that includes their diplomatic delegation here (I am a guest of honor at their "Travel Fair Opening") and even if they don't dare speak out loud, it's very obvious that they don't want to become communists in the near future. Further more, if you talk to people in Hongkong off the record, they are not giving standing ovations to being a part of Greater China.

China is an oppresive state and they have expansionistic ambitions. They currently use the large market and their expansion is paid with the US trade deficit. I honestly can't understand why everyone can defend China and at the same time be stomping on Cuba.

Leaving Taiwan to China is like giving ok to slavery again...... :book:

[Papewaio]

Now, irrespective of this Great Southern Land’s residents’ wishes, I can’t imagine that under these circumstances, the notion of Australia as an independent state will be honoured by any save those very same residents.

Taiwan is fortunate in that much of the world does indeed recognise its right to self-rule, but it is a delicate situation when China, an ascendant world power, even a potential superpower given time, regards the Taiwanese territory and people as falling under its own dominion.


The two cases are not equal.

It is more like saying that as Australia became independent in 1901 that the USA claims it because of shared ethnic origin.

Although I debate about the origins of human rights, there inherency and other factors. I do believe that they are steps towards a better world. Communism as acted out is not a step towards a better world.

[Efrem]

How can it be a rogue breakaway state when it has never been occupied by Communist China?

Japan has more of a 'right' to ownership then China.

And if China can take over Taiwan because of ethnic ties then so can Britain take over NZ or Australia (or USA could do the same to A/NZ).


What are you talking aboot pape????

We are both still ruled by the same queen.

[Efrem]

BTW

I'm all for an independant taiwan!

[Degtyarev14.5]

In this, my three hundredth post, I just wish to clarify that I do not defend China's ambitions, nor do I support the notion of a communist government in Taiwan.

I am simply reiterating that just as a system of law is critically flawed and essentially meaningless if it is impossible or impractical to enforce, ultimately, in the face of a discontinuation of peaceful diplomatic relations, one’s right to rule a nation is effectively nullified should one be unable to defend that very right via military means.

I have an early morning tomorrow, so goodnight! and keep the discussion flowing! ~:cheers:

A.

EDIT:

it’s very obvious that they don't want to become communists in the near future
But I will respond to this before I go. bmolsson, I’m not arguing against you on this point, I believe you, I can’t imagine that the Taiwanese people would want to live in a communist state. I believe you are missing my point.

My point is that unless the Taiwanese state can defend its interests and secure international sympathy and support, the Taiwanese people won’t have a say in their future: they will be incorporated into the People's Republic of China whether they like it or not.

[bmolsson]

In this, my three hundredth post, I just wish to clarify that I do not defend China's ambitions, nor do I support the notion of a communist government in Taiwan.

I am simply reiterating that just as a system of law is critically flawed and essentially meaningless if it is impossible or impractical to enforce, ultimately, in the face of a discontinuation of peaceful diplomatic relations, one’s right to rule a nation is effectively nullified should one be unable to defend that very right via military means.

I have an early morning tomorrow, so goodnight! and keep the discussion flowing! ~:cheers:

A.


In the case of Taiwan, they can defend themselves. Also to note, in the modern world we don't allow larger rough states taking what they want, why should China be allowed when we did not let Iraq taking Kuwait ?



But I will respond to this before I go. bmolsson, I’m not arguing against you on this point, I believe you, I can’t imagine that the Taiwanese people would want to live in a communist state. I believe you are missing my point.

My point is that unless the Taiwanese state can defend its interests and secure international sympathy and support, the Taiwanese people won’t have a say in their future: they will be incorporated into the People's Republic of China whether they like it or not.


China is building up it's military capability on the back of slave labor used to produce cheap products for the western markets. China will NEVER be able as a communistic state to build up an economical and military power to take Taiwan, without getting hard currency from the western markets.

Communistic states, as well as facist states, are predators on freedom and use expansionistic measures to keep growth up. Sovietunion keept on growing stronger as long as it had states to invade and absorb. The growth didn't come from within. When the expansion was halted by the cold war, they collapsed.....

[Degtyarev14.5]

In the case of Taiwan, they can defend themselves. Also to note, in the modern world we don't allow larger rough states taking what they want, why should China be allowed when we did not let Iraq taking Kuwait ?
Perhaps I am mistaken in this, but I am under the impression that one reason the USA and its allies were so eager to attack Iraq was that it was an easy target: Iraq simply could not stand in the face of US aggression, and as such allied casualties could be kept to a bare minimum.

In thirty or forty years, will we be able to say the same of China? Might an allied attempt to curb their expansionist ambitions descend into a Vietnam-like quagmire? Perhaps we should be thankful that Bush et al. are pouring so much funding into the USA’s defence budget, but I am unaware of exactly how much of that is being allocated to research and development.


China is building up it's military capability on the back of slave labor used to produce cheap products for the western markets. China will NEVER be able as a communistic state to build up an economical and military power to take Taiwan, without getting hard currency from the western markets.
And that is exactly what it is doing.


Communistic states, as well as facist states, are predators on freedom and use expansionistic measures to keep growth up. Sovietunion keept on growing stronger as long as it had states to invade and absorb. The growth didn't come from within. When the expansion was halted by the cold war, they collapsed.....
I agree that you present here a prime reason why China should possess expansionist ambitions. Taiwan is right to be concerned (an understatement, I know), but the question is:

Given that the West is proving happy and willing to feed China’s economy, and given that China is intent upon expanding its sphere of influence, what can Taiwan do about it?

A.

[Papewaio]

I think the west learnt from Hitler the value of appeasement.

If the west lets Taiwan go, who is next?

[Degtyarev14.5]

The West hasn’t proven particularly eager to liberate Tibet.

From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibet#History):


However, the PRC government does not view itself as an occupying power [...] The PRC also does not recognize the borders of Tibet as claimed by the government of Tibet in Exile
I am aware that there are differences, such as a certain 1907 treaty between Britain, China and Russia recognising China's right to the Tibetan lands and peoples (this, of course, pre-dates the establishment of the communist People's Republic of China), but the present implications of the underlying politics are essentially the same.

A.

[King Edward]

I am aware that there are differences, such as a certain 1907 treaty between Britain, China and Russia recognising China's right to the Tibetan lands and peoples (this, of course, pre-dates the establishment of the communist People's Republic of China), but the present implications of the underlying politics are essentially the same.

A.

If anything thes agreement recognises Taiwans rights to tibet as that would be the government the treaty was made with.....

[Degtyarev14.5]

Yes yes yes!! :bow:

But how could you coerce the PRC to look at it that way? They could counter-claim that they have rightfully annexed Tibet through legitimate use of force. (And that no real attempt has been made to deny them that.)

And then they could also claim the right to employ the very same means to acquire Taiwan.

[Papewaio]

And then they could also claim the right to employ the very same means to acquire Taiwan.

So if they have the ability they can also acquire Australia. Neither one in the past has been ruled by Communist China, and if they cannot defend themselves then mainland China can have them both with equal rights... :duel:

[bmolsson]

I agree that you present here a prime reason why China should possess expansionist ambitions. Taiwan is right to be concerned (an understatement, I know), but the question is:

Given that the West is proving happy and willing to feed China’s economy, and given that China is intent upon expanding its sphere of influence, what can Taiwan do about it?

A.

They could get defensive nukes.... ~;)

[bmolsson]

You could argue that any non-democratic government has by default no rights to anything or anyone. In the case of Tibet, a referendum would be the appropiate solution IMHO.....

[DisruptorX]

Perhaps I am mistaken in this, but I am under the impression that one reason the USA and its allies were so eager to attack Iraq was that it was an easy target: Iraq simply could not stand in the face of US aggression, and as such allied casualties could be kept to a bare minimum.


US aggression? I understand that many of you are not happy with many choices of the US gov't, but to declare the Persian Gulf war "agression" is ridiculous.

Kuwait is a middle eastern country that is more modernized than its neighbors, with a higher standard of living and less nutjobs. It also has oil. Saddam Hussein is a pan-arabist who has compared himself to Stalin. The object of the war was to prevent him from gaining control of a large portion of the Middle East's oil. Remember, at this point he would likely have used the Kuwaiti oil to finance and supply a renewed war again Iran, which was in far worse shape after their first war. This would have given him even more of the oil supplies.

Also, before the Gulf War, confidence in the US military was not as strong as it is now.

[Degtyarev14.5]

Ahh, very well, I concede that the term “aggression” does not perfectly reflect what I had meant to convey.

Please substitute a more neutral phrase such as “US military intervention,” and I apologise for the misunderstanding.


So if they have the ability they can also acquire Australia. Neither one in the past has been ruled by Communist China, and if they cannot defend themselves then mainland China can have them both with equal rights... :duel:
Pape, if that is China’s will, then I’m afraid that is the way of it. I appreciate the strong idealism behind your views, as evidenced by statements such as


I do believe that [there] are steps towards a better world. Communism as acted out is not a step towards a better world
and I applaud you for it. I’m afraid I possess a rather more cynical and even morbid outlook on world affairs and life in general, and believe me, my personality betrays it.

[bmolsson]

I’m afraid I possess a rather more cynical and even morbid outlook on world affairs and life in general, and believe me, my personality betrays it.

You mean you shave your head ??? ~D ~:grouphug:

[Kraxis]

You could argue that any non-democratic government has by default no rights to anything or anyone. In the case of Tibet, a referendum would be the appropiate solution IMHO.....
Hardly viable as China has moved millions of Han Chinese into Tibet effectively outnumbering the Tibetans. Tibet is a lost cause... Anything short of invasion will not budge China in this.

[ichi]

They could get defensive nukes....

"Come one step closer and the koala gets it!"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1900000/images/_1901932_phone300ap.jpg

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/kids/2003/08/images/koala-big.jpg

http://www.deskpicture.com/DPs/Miscellaneous/AtomicBlast.jpg

ichi :bow:

[BDC]

I suspect a few well placed nukes and cruise missiles could decapitate China quite easily and leave it in another pitiful civil war for a few decades as regional leaders try and take control.

Of course I'll have to pay slightly more for tshirts then. And of course hundreds of millions would die.