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Adrian II
05-13-2005, 23:25
An interesting tit-bit, and a heads-up for ladies and gentlemen of the anthropogenic persuasion.


Telegraph
01/05/2005

Leading scientific journals 'are censoring debate on global warming'

by Robert Matthews

Two of the world's leading scientific journals have come under fire from researchers for refusing to publish papers which challenge fashionable wisdom over global warming.

A British authority on natural catastrophes who disputed whether climatologists really agree that the Earth is getting warmer because of human activity, says his work was rejected by the American publication, Science, on the flimsiest of grounds.

A separate team of climate scientists, which was regularly used by Science and the journal Nature to review papers on the progress of global warming, said it was dropped after attempting to publish its own research which raised doubts over the issue.

The controversy follows the publication by Science in December of a paper which claimed to have demonstrated complete agreement among climate experts, not only that global warming is a genuine phenomenon, but also that mankind is to blame.

The author of the research, Dr Naomi Oreskes, of the University of California, analysed almost 1,000 papers on the subject published since the early 1990s, and concluded that 75 per cent of them either explicitly or implicitly backed the consensus view, while none directly dissented from it.

Dr Oreskes's study is now routinely cited by those demanding action on climate change, including the Royal Society and Prof Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser.

However, her unequivocal conclusions immediately raised suspicions among other academics, who knew of many papers that dissented from the pro-global warming line.

They included Dr Benny Peiser, a senior lecturer in the science faculty at Liverpool John Moores University, who decided to conduct his own analysis of the same set of 1,000 documents - and concluded that only one third backed the consensus view, while only one per cent did so explicitly.

Dr Peiser submitted his findings to Science in January, and was asked to edit his paper for publication - but has now been told that his results have been rejected on the grounds that the points he make had been "widely dispersed on the internet".

Dr Peiser insists that he has kept his findings strictly confidential. "It is simply not true that they have appeared elsewhere already," he said.

A spokesman for Science said Dr Peiser's research had been rejected "for a variety of reasons", adding: "The information in the letter was not perceived to be novel."

Dr Peiser rejected this: "As the results from my analysis refuted the original claims, I believe Science has a duty to publish them."

Dr Peiser is not the only academic to have had work turned down which criticises the findings of Dr Oreskes's study. Prof Dennis Bray, of the GKSS National Research Centre in Geesthacht, Germany, submitted results from an international study showing that fewer than one in 10 climate scientists believed that climate change is principally caused by human activity.

As with Dr Peiser's study, Science refused to publish his rebuttal. Prof Bray told The Telegraph: "They said it didn't fit with what they were intending to publish."

Prof Roy Spencer, at the University of Alabama, a leading authority on satellite measurements of global temperatures, told The Telegraph: "It's pretty clear that the editorial board of Science is more interested in promoting papers that are pro-global warming. It's the news value that is most important."

He said that after his own team produced research casting doubt on man-made global warming, they were no longer sent papers by Nature and Science for review - despite being acknowledged as world leaders in the field.

As a result, says Prof Spencer, flawed research is finding its way into the leading journals, while attempts to get rebuttals published fail. "Other scientists have had the same experience", he said. "The journals have a small set of reviewers who are pro-global warming."

Concern about bias within climate research has spread to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose findings are widely cited by those calling for drastic action on global warming.

In January, Dr Chris Landsea, an expert on hurricanes with the United States National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, resigned from the IPCC, claiming that it was "motivated by pre-conceived agendas" and was "scientifically unsound".

A spokesman for Science denied any bias against sceptics of man-made global warming. "You will find in our letters that there is a wide range of opinion," she said. "We certainly seek to cover dissenting views."

Dr Philip Campbell, the editor-in-chief of Nature, said that the journal was always happy to publish papers that go against perceived wisdom, as long as they are of acceptable scientific quality.

"The idea that we would conspire to suppress science that undermines the idea of anthropogenic climate change is both false and utterly naive about what makes journals thrive," he said.

Dr Peiser said the stifling of dissent and preoccupation with doomsday scenarios is bringing climate research into disrepute. "There is a fear that any doubt will be used by politicians to avoid action," he said. "But if political considerations dictate what gets published, it's all over for science."

Devastatin Dave
05-13-2005, 23:29
Is this Bush's fault?

Templar Knight
05-13-2005, 23:30
Is this Bush's fault?

probably ~:)

Adrian II
05-13-2005, 23:43
Is this Bush's fault?There are different threads for your sort of thing, Dave. This is about peer review failure in Science and Nature.

:mellow:

Crazed Rabbit
05-13-2005, 23:59
Environmental Liberals stiffling dissent?!?!? I guess its the only way they can hope ot have everyone believe them.

It is sad that allegedly high reputation science journals are doing this, but I suppose scientists, like anybody else, can have agendas.

I wonder if big-name liberals in the US will talk about this, if at all. They go to extreme lengths to keep the traitor churchill on public dole, while demanding Summers, Pres. of Havard, apologize ad nauseum since he suggested the possibility of men and women being physically and mentally diffferent. Free speech for me, but not for thee....

Crazed Rabbit

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 00:17
Environmental Liberals stiffling dissent?!?!?Earth to Rabbit, this has nothing to do with liberalism.

The global warming scare was invented by Margaret Thatcher for heaven's sake. It is propagated as God's answer to our environmental sins by heavily Christian scientists like Sir John Houghton (http://www.st-edmunds.cam.ac.uk/cis/houghton/lecture0.html), the founder and first president of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Margaret Thatcher, Conservative

http://www.margaretthatcher.net/biography/images/picb.jpg


John Houghton, professional sinner

http://www.st-edmunds.cam.ac.uk/cis/houghton/images/houghton

Templar Knight
05-14-2005, 00:18
Me and my fellow conservatives are to blame for this? oh balls... :hide:

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 00:30
Me and my fellow conservatives are to blame for this? oh balls... :hide:Yes, and you in particular. You better pack a few personal belongings and wait for the knock on your door.

Of course bad science is just that, it's not Conservative or Liberal. All sorts of political trends and movemnts have contributed to the scare, including liberals and environmentalists, but they're not exclusively to blame for it.

In the case of these magazines I guess it's a matter of a social consensus among a relatively small group of scientists and article reviewers suggesting that there is a scientific consensus in the wider community. Such processes are self-reinforcing. There's no reason to accuse anyone of conspiracies.

Big_John
05-14-2005, 00:31
lol "professional sinner"..

anyway, i don't know enough about this topic to reply meaningfully. don't follow the publications like i used to. i'm sure my old nasa colleagues would have an earful to tell me about all this. alas..

here are a couple of interesting (if jargony) 'science forum' discussions related to this topic between nuclear.com's steve schulin, u. chicago geophysicist michael tobis, and climate modelers william connolley and james annan, among others.

http://www.groupsrv.com/science/about95343.html

http://www.groupsrv.com/science/about96086.html

Beirut
05-14-2005, 00:32
http://www.margaretthatcher.net/biography/images/picb.jpg


My Iron Lady. What a woman! :wink3:

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 00:33
My Iron Lady. What a woman! :wink3:No wonder things have heated up since 1979, eh?

Templar Knight
05-14-2005, 00:36
my, that was quick. Well there is the door, goodbye everyone, I'll send some snow ~:wave:

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 00:39
my, that was quick. Well there is the door, goodbye everyone, I'll send some snow ~:wave:Not from where you're going... http://matousmileys.free.fr/teufel.gif

Templar Knight
05-14-2005, 00:46
Not from where you're going... http://matousmileys.free.fr/teufel.gif

was I that bad? :shame:

anyway, I'm led to believe that global warming may make certain areas cooler?

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 00:59
was I that bad? :shame:

anyway, I'm led to believe that global warming may make certain areas cooler?Why am I trolling my own thread? http://matousmileys.free.fr/impatient.gif

hrvojej
05-14-2005, 01:10
This just goes to show that all those high-impact-factor journals are overrated...

Freedom to the scientific journals!

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 01:19
This just goes to show that all those high-impact-factor journals are overrated...Isn't it amazing, though, that one author, Oreskes, finds no signs of opposition to anthropogenic global warming in 1,000 scientific articles, and Peiser finds only one percent support for it in those same 1,000 articles. They were probably just that: scientific articles - suggesting that a majority of scientific authors isn't 'politicised' at all. And these aren't bloggers or tv presenters, these are top-notch scientists from the best labs, observation stations and institutes in the whole world. In fact what it suggests is that the community of climate scientists is more or less immune to politicisation, and that it's rather the editors of the magazines who appear to be politiced.

hrvojej
05-14-2005, 01:52
Isn't it amazing, though, that one author, Oreskes, finds no signs of opposition to anthropogenic global warming in 1,000 scientific articles, and Peiser finds only one percent support for it in those same 1,000 articles. They were probably just that: scientific articles - suggesting that a majority of scientific authors isn't 'politicised' at all. And these aren't bloggers or tv presenters, these are top-notch scientists from the best labs, observation stations and institutes in the whole world.
To be completely honest, to really have an opinion about the discrepancy I would have to read all those myself to be able to see who is wrong and to what extent. Of course, even then it would be only my opinion. That's also why one should generally steer away from the review articles for hardcore references.

Besides, I doubt that each of those 1000 articles had clear conclusions stating "yes, this is man-made" or something to that effect. If this was not the main goal of a given paper, the focus of the conclusions could be pointing to something else, and hence their interpretation in this particular light could be, well, open to interpretation.

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 01:56
Besides, I doubt that each of those 1000 articles had clear conclusions stating "yes, this is man-made" or something to that effect. If this was not the main goal of a given paper, the focus of the conclusions could be pointing to something else, and hence their interpretation in this particular light could be, well, open to interpretation.Indeed; I just added a sentence to that effect to my post, at the same time you were posting this message. The majority of authors probably isn't politicised at all, even though thier findings and recommendations (if any) could have political consequences.

Devastatin Dave
05-14-2005, 02:25
Why am I trolling my own thread? http://matousmileys.free.fr/impatient.gif


Because its in the blood man!!!! ~:cheers:

Gawain of Orkeny
05-14-2005, 02:38
And the next time the argument about global warming turns up here those on the side of it(mosty liberals no matter what has been said here) will be quoting these journals as proof that it exists.

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 11:36
And the next time the argument about global warming turns up here those on the side of it (mosty liberals no matter what has been said here) will be quoting these journals as proof that it exists.There's a big world outside this Backroom that I find far more interesting, with all due respect to the patrons here. I'm not interested in playing libs and cons. I did that when I was five, it was called 'playing Knight' (a bit like your Cowboys 'n Injuns). In fact I'm hardly interested in debating things at all, I'm much more interested in discussing, investigating, figuring out how things work. In order to clear the ground you have to debate certain points now and then. But the Internet is such a restricted environment, it's just a very narrow window on a tiny part of the world. I think it would be worthwhile to write a book on the 'making of' the IPCC, including all the great stories that have come up over the years in connection with the subject. You'd have to talk to the people involved, including Thatcher and Houghton of course, but a lot of scientists too.

If I weren't tied to a desk most of the week I would be out researching things like this, reporting, making trips to interview people like I used to. Meanwhile colleagues of mine have been to Afghanistan, Iraq, Darfur, Macedonia, Uzbekistan, Pakistan. This is a temporary situation though. It's connected to personal circumstances that are changing for the better every week.

Hmm, I wonder where I stored that laptop with the satellite phone modem?...

therother
05-14-2005, 12:51
I had a little look into this, and this site (http://cgi.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/cgi-bin/blog/science/peiser.html?seemore=y#more) has the dissenting abstracts. The rejected letter, and correspondence are here (http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/Scienceletter.htm).

There is some sceptical discussion of Peiser's letter and methods here (http://crookedtimber.org/2005/05/05/take-the-global-warming-taste-test).

"Prof Dennis Bray, of the GKSS National Research Centre in Geesthacht, Germany, submitted results from an international study showing that fewer than one in 10 climate scientists believed that climate change is principally caused by human activity."

This a bit misleading. The actual results of Bray's online survey (Q40) (http://w3g.gkss.de/G/mitarbeiter/bray/BrayGKSSsite/BrayGKSS/surveyframe.html):

Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes:

Strongly Agree|1|2|3|4|5|6|7|Strongly Disagree
|9%|25%|21%|14%|8%|11%|10%|

Also, if you go to the site, he has results from 1996 and 2003. If you look at the differences between the two, you'll see that there is a shift from right to left. IOW, scientists are becoming more convinced rather than less. (The error bar plot shows this most succinctly.)

Of course, this was an online survey that had minimal protection, so all results should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Science has, in fact, published a dissenting letter (Science, Vol 308, Issue 5724, 952-954 , 13 May 2005): for those that have access (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/308/5724/952?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&author1=Oreskes&searchid=1116069952714_1633&stored_search=&FIRSTINDEX=0&fdate=10/1/1995&tdate=5/31/2005)

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 13:07
I had a little look into this, and this site (http://cgi.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/cgi-bin/blog/science/peiser.html?seemore=y#more) has the dissenting abstracts.That page loads like a 1873 Winchester that's never smelled grease, but I'll try again later on. Anyway, it seems there is a little skeptic offensive going on with an eye to the IPCC conference in Beijing this Fall, where several contentious issues will be discussed such as the Mann vs McKitrick 'hockeystick-graph' debate and the way the IPCC mainly relies on the peer review system of two leading science magazines. I'd love to go there and see for myself what perspires there.

KukriKhan
05-14-2005, 15:59
Didn't we beat this horse to death last month with JAG's thread (and article by Hari, who cited the 'tens of thousands of scientists agree' bit)?
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?t=46779

Wait. I see. This one is about responsible editing and publishing. Hmmm...given the links provided in this tiny thread, in this little backwater site on the 'net, looks like the mag publishers have a point in their rejection letter, that the info was already on the net.

However, since they'd previously published a contrary study, seems like they'd feel honor-bound to publish this one - at the very least, as a letter to the editor.

Science and Nature are privately owned yes? Nothing Joe Public can do, but criticize then.

Adrian, be sure to hook up a webcam to that laptop you're taking to Nepal, or wherever. We wanna see what you see.

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 16:12
We wanna see what you see.Trust me, you don't! ~D

Seriously, Beijing is not in Nepal and I'm not going there anyway. I talked to my boss this morning and I've just Internet-booked a flight to Morocco in July in order to find out some things about 'Casablanca'. And you can bet your Californian backside I'm not gonna walk around Casablanca interviewing angry beards with a live webcam anywhere near me.
~:handball:

KukriKhan
05-14-2005, 16:26
Chicken ~D

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 16:32
Chicken ~DPoint taken. Better a live chicken than a dead idiot.

http://matousmileys.free.fr/ali.gifhttp://matousmileys.free.fr/ali.gifhttp://matousmileys.free.fr/ali.gifhttp://matousmileys.free.fr/whistling.gifhttp://matousmileys.free.fr/ali.gifhttp://matousmileys.free.fr/ali.gif

KukriKhan
05-14-2005, 16:41
Hahaha - great smiley scene.

My teasing was only trying to pressure you to come back here, as our roving reporter, when you resume your travels. We'd hate to loose you, either to work, or angry beards. Oh, and I did pass 4th grade geography & can pinpoint Beijing (or Peking as we called it then) 8 out of 10 times.

Back to topic: Is it your opinion that those magazines have an obligation to publish this new, contrary, material?

Adrian II
05-14-2005, 16:54
My teasing was only trying to pressure you to come back here, as our roving reporter, when you resume your travels. We'd hate to loose you, either to work, or angry beards.Oh come on, there are plenty Backroomers lining up to bury me, young fellar, but I ain't dead yet! http://matousmileys.free.fr/autsch2.gif

Back to topic: Is it your opinion that those magazines have an obligation to publish this new, contrary, material?I think they have an obligation to make their peer review system work, and THEN publish what is most relevant to scientific research in various fields. It should be structural reform to improve the scientific relevance of their mag, not a one-off. And like I said, the IPCC wants to address its own procedures at the Beijing conference. I'm really looking forward to what transpires there (not 'perspires' like I wrote above... :embarassed: ).

I believe it's Papewaio who always says science is not a democracy. God forbid that we get 'balanced' magazines in the way some American media understand 'balance': a Rep, a Dem, and a moderator with a bland smile in the middle asking autocue questions.

KukriKhan
05-14-2005, 18:40
I think I agree. Magazines that purport to be journals of their respective professions (e.g. The Lancet, Nature, JAMA, Science) would seem ethically bound to have a very thorough peer-review process - more so than 'popular' publications (e.g. PC World, Car and Driver), just by virtue of their being looked to as authorities in matters that concern them.

edit: p.s. I was certain you intended 'perspire', and smiled at your wordplay.

bmolsson
05-15-2005, 05:12
I don't think it's getting hotter..... *Get another coke from the icebox.... *

Adrian II
05-15-2005, 09:43
edit: p.s. I was certain you intended 'perspire', and smiled at your wordplay.Nope, I was just being dumb. :balloon2: