Mini-Mafia [Concluded]

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Bold all votes, like this: Vote:Sasaki

Please unvote before changing vote: Unvote:Sasaki; Vote: Kojiro

No posting after you're dead. Posts will be deleted. (please keep quite in the chat room as well)

Don't quote, forward, or take screenshots of any pm's from me. If you want to convince people of your role you will have to do it through your own eloquence.

In this setup we have:

2 mafia
50% chance of a cop
50% chance of a doc
3-5 townies

For a total of 7 players. The mafia can kill one person total each night, the cop can investigate one person each night, the doc can protect one person each night.

The game starts in the daytime with none of the players having been killed. It takes a majority to lynch, so, 4 votes the first day. Once the 4th vote is cast the person is considered dead even if they get unvoted later. if there are equal numbers of mafia and townies left the mafia win.

What's fun about this setup is you have to be very very careful about who you lynch. If you lynch a townie the first day, on day two you'll have 2 mafia and 3 townies. Lynching a townie day 2 would then be game over. In fact, if a townie just votes for a townie day 2 the mafia could both vote for that person and it would be game over. The idea is to promote discussion, lots of discussion. You don't have anything to go on at first so you can cast random votes or try to pressure vote lurkers...just be careful you don't lynch someone to quickly.

I'll be replacing anyone who doesn't post.

GeneralHankerchief
SilverRusher
Dutch_Guy
Crazed Rabbit
Drisos
Kagemusha
Sigurd Fafsnesfifflebane

[GeneralHankerchief]

Of course I'm in.

[Silver Rusher]

Of course I'm in too.

[Dutch_guy]

Sign me up :2thumbsup:

:balloon2:

[Crazed Rabbit]

Why not? Should be quick. Count me in.

Crazed Rabbit

[Drisos]

me too :jumping:

sounds intresting :2thumbsup: :balloon2:

[Kagemusha]

Is there still a spot available?:jumping:

[Silver Rusher]

One more after you.

[Sigurd]

All right, I am in

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Signups closed. I've informed 5 of you of your role via pm; Kage and Dutch_guy your inboxes are full.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Ok all Pm's sent. Game has now begun.

7 alive, 4 votes to lynch.

[Sigurd]

We start off with a lynching? Pre-emptive attack on the Mafia.
I like it…
There is absolutely no way of knowing who the mafia is in this round since the roles are given randomly. Or are they?
My first inclination was to vote for Saski Kirjo for intentionally misspelling my name but since he is not in the game I’ll start with a vote for;
Vote: Kagemusha
Reason: for having a full PM box and delaying the game :stare:

[Crazed Rabbit]

I thought we were going to discuss this a little first. The whole point of such a small game is that you can't throw away lynches like no tommorow and still win in the end (heehee, mafia 3). Unless you're just trying to get some discussion going.

So here's who we've got:

GeneralHankerchief
SilverRusher
Dutch_Guy
Crazed Rabbit
Drisos
Kagemusha
Sigurd Fafnesbane

2 are mafia, and we have a 50% chance each of having a detective and doctor.

(By the way, Sigurd, does Fafnesbane mean the bane of something? LIke a dragon?)

What I want to see is everyone posting before I vote and explaining themselves. This is too important to do the typical mafia opening vote.

Crazed Rabbit

[Sigurd]

(By the way, Sigurd, does Fafnesbane mean the bane of something? LIke a dragon?)
Yes it does... the bane of the dragon Fafnir

[Kagemusha]

So Sigurd you are voting me,becouse im busy modder and have my PM box full?:wall: Or is it just an agressive first maneuver of an Mafioso?You know the old story about he who throws the first rock?:inquisitive:

[Sigurd]

Alright I admit it was an aggressive move… The mafia in this game probably smells the poor laid trap anyway.
I was just throwing a name out for bait to see if the mafia would bandwagon on it.
Considering there only being 4 votes to lynch, this is probably a risky strategy.
Ok Kagemusha your off the hook for now. :shame:

Unvote: Kagemusha

[Kagemusha]

Good baiting effort still.:2thumbsup: So where is everybody else.This game should be great fun once we get it really started.Come out before Sasaki starts chopping of heads. ~;)

[Silver Rusher]

On a purely random basis, I Vote: Drisos.

[Dutch_guy]

Okay, Rabbit's way to do this sounds best. Let's discuss this thoroughly before we decide to lynch, it may cost us the game for all we know.

So, 2 of the 7 are mafia, meaning there's a good chance one of them has already posted here without us knowing.

:balloon2:

[Silver Rusher]

Dutch_guy, at the moment we have absolutely no leads as to who the mafia are. Psychoanalysis, as I learnt thoroughly in Mafia III, provides almost all the wrong results. We may as well vote randomly.

[GeneralHankerchief]

On a purely random basis, I Vote: Drisos.

What we have here is someone a bit too eager for a lynching.

Vote: Silver Rusher

[Crazed Rabbit]

Dutch_guy, at the moment we have absolutely no leads as to who the mafia are. Psychoanalysis, as I learnt thoroughly in Mafia III, provides almost all the wrong results. We may as well vote randomly.

Correction: your psychoanalysis provides all the wrong results. ~;p

As GH said, you do seem somewhat overeager for a random lynching. Didn't Sasaki say that the most important part of this game is discussion? A purely random vote could be disastrous.

I'll hold off on voting for you, though, because I hope you can give a better explaination of yourself.

Crazed Rabbit

[Silver Rusher]

Listen. When we lynch in this first round, 1 of 3 things can happen:

1. We lynch a mafioso. There is a 2/7 (near 1/3) chance that this will happen. If it does happen, good for us.

2. We lynch a townsperson. Not too bad, we have eliminated a possible suspect and it is the most likely event but it also means that we are finished if we don't get the mafia in the next round.

3. We lynch the detective/doctor. Worst case scenario. There is only a 1/7 chance of this if you vote randomly, but I just think that psychoanalysis makes it more likely that you will accidentally get one of these other roles like the detective. The mafia have to come up with convincing arguments, and they probably aren't stupid. In my opinion, psychoanalysis simply makes it less easy to find the mafia. This isn't required for the detective or doctor because they can still win if the townspeople win anyway, but it helps for them to stay alive.


Correction: your psychoanalysis provides all the wrong results.
Yep, and so does everyone elses. Not once have the villagers even found a single mafioso through psychoanalysis. In game 1, everyone was guessing anyway and Shadows was only outed through a 75% percent chance that at least one mafioso would be done in in the final 4. Game 2, it took until near the end for Lemur to go simply because of Kommodus' spreadsheets and Tiberius' detective work. In Game 3, it was evidence regarding history, voting records and his own partner's intended testimony against him (for the purpose of "proving" his own innocence) that finished Gert off. And Kommodus made a couple of foolish mistakes which caused him to be outed in the end.

The point I am trying to make here is that the mafia are never stupid. The moment they get that PM, they are already plotting how to avoid suspicion amongst one another, and I gotta say it works most of the time. We don't have any evidence whatsoever and trying to pull some out of thin air will simply lead to us shooting ourselves in the foot.

[Dutch_guy]

Dutch_guy, at the moment we have absolutely no leads as to who the mafia are.

That's true, yes, first lynch is mere guesswork - but then again, we can't afford to do that really.

Oh well, I'm off to bed.

:balloon2:

[Sasaki Kojiro]

In my experience in a game of this setup, the odds of lynching a mafioso first round are very low. However, on day 2 you have 2 confirmed innocents and a 2/5 chance of getting mafia, then the first days discussion becomes invaluable in figuring out who they are.

sidenote @ Silver Rusher: if psychoanalysis is always wrong, then you can confirm people as innocent by using it :p

but actually it can work, you just can't see it in the games we've had because we're all new at it.



Vote Count

Drisos 1 (Silver Rusher)
Silver Rusher 1 (General Hankerchief)

not voting (Kagemusha, Sigurd, Crazed Rabbit, Dutch_Guy, Drisos)

[Silver Rusher]

Sasaki, sure you can use psychoanalysis and sure it may work once in a while but the Mafia are far more likely to outsmart you if you do that. That is one of the main parts of their job.

Another thing, why is it that merely voting makes me too eager/overeager for a lynching? Voting is something that you are supposed to do in Mafia.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Another thing, why is it that merely voting makes me too eager/overeager for a lynching? Voting is something that you are supposed to do in Mafia.

A) It was done early on when we had pretty much agreed to talk before voting.

B) Your reason was extremely suspicious.

C) Now that you are under fire for it you are attacking psychoanalysis far more than necessary.

My vote stands.

[Drisos]

If we vote in a circle, no one gets lynched.. which is better anyway when we don't have any clues to the mafia identity. ~:)

therefor, I vote GHC

all three of us 1 vote.. if the other three voters vote all on the same one of us, he dies. but I doubt that.

let's see who gets killed first round :jumping:

[Kagemusha]

I have been thinking and thinking,but there is no evidence against anybody so all i can do is to follow my instinct.Becouse i have to vote someone i Vote Dutch Guy.The only reasoning i can come up with that is that becouse he didnt point out a mafia member like in the last games with his post,i think he is Mafia himself.:skull:

[Dutch_guy]

I have been thinking and thinking,but there is no evidence against anybody so all i can do is to follow my instinct.Becouse i have to vote someone i Vote Dutch Guy.The only reasoning i can come up with that is that becouse he didnt point out a mafia member like in the last games with his post,i think he is Mafia himself.:skull:

I have absolutely nothing to go on, and you know it. In the other games it was always something at least...

:balloon2:

[Kagemusha]

I have absolutely nothing to go on, and you know it. In the other games it was always something at least...

:balloon2: I have exactly the same problem.Anyway we are going to kill an innocent person becouse there is no murder yet there are only couple Mafiosos planning a murder. This whole first round is just shooting at the Dark.One way would be like Drisos suggested vote in a circle so everybody gets a one vote so no one gets executed.

[Dutch_guy]

This whole first round is just shooting at the Dark.One way would be like Drisos suggested vote in a circle so everybody gets a one vote so no one gets executed.

I think that ultimately that would suite the mafia better, although there is absolutely no way of knowing that :skull:

:balloon2:

[Crazed Rabbit]

Well, if we all voted for someone different, then the game wouldn't progress, would it? So the mafia would be stopped! Until Sasaki threatened us in some manner, I suppose, to move the game along.

Crazed Rabbit

[Kommodus]

Hm, I just did a quick simulation to determine whether or not it is in the villagers' interest to lynch someone before the first mafia strike.

The results are clear: it is not in their interest to do so. The villagers have a significantly better chance of winning if they wait until after the mafia have killed their first victim. Lynching someone prematurely will only hurt their chances.

Of course, the mafia still probably have an advantage, depending on whether a cop and/or doctor is present.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I'm not sure what math you used but it is clearly in the towns interest. If you don't lynch then tomorrow there will be 2 mafia and 4 townies. If you lynch a townie (2/3 chance) you will lose the game. If you lynch someone today and it's a townie you have a better chance at a mafia tomorrow (6/15 vs 5/15) plus you have the 2/7 chance from today.

Nevertheless, if you wish you may Vote:No Lynch. If we get 4 no lynch votes then no one will be lynched this round. But imo the better strategy is to bandwagon someone and see how they defend themselves etc.

[Silver Rusher]

EDIT: Sasaki beat me to it.

Sasaki's answer seems to be best here, so my vote stands.

[doc_bean]

wanders into thread

Your chances of lynching at least 1 mafia member in the first 2 days are 4/7 if you lynch someone today and only 1/3 tomorrow. I doubt the extra surviver can ever make up for that difference, what kind of simulation did you do Kommodus ?

[Crazed Rabbit]

Well, it seems that it is in our best interest to lynch someone, even if they aren't mafia.

However, that still leaves me with the prospect of picking from a bunch of people with barely anything to go on. So I must go with what little I have.

And the little I have points toward Silver Rusher. Not for his random vote for Drisos, but what appears to be his desire to not really discuss our votes, and just vote randomly. This is the crux of it; wanting to not talk about your vote. Doing this gives us nothing to hunt the mafia with. I also agree with GH's points earlier in this thread, on why his vote for Drisos looks like he wants a quick lynching.

From Sasaki's first post:

The idea is to promote discussion, lots of discussion.

Vote: Silver Rusher

Crazed Rabbit

[Silver Rusher]

Jeez, what can I now do in this situation? (trying to) Defend(ing) myself will obviously lead to a bigger case against me.

As this is the case, I will say one thing and then shut up until either I'm lynched or people realise I'm not guilty. If you lynch me, you will regret it.

[Kommodus]

Hm... I've just revisited my simulation, and realized that my initial results depend on how the end of the game is handled.

Suppose the game progresses like this: the mafia strike first, and the villagers execute an innocent. Then the mafia kill another, and the villagers execute a mafioso. After the mafia kill one more player, there would be two left - a mafioso and a villager - prior to the final voting round.

My simulation basically assumed a "ghost vote" in this event, resulting in an execution of one of the players at random. If this is not how the situation is handled, and the final mafioso is allowed to kill both players at the end, then the results of the sim would be reversed, and the villagers would want to execute someone first.

(For the record, my simulation is a small computer program that runs thousands of simulated games and calculates what percentage each side wins.)

That said, promoting discussion is always a good thing, regardless of the statistics.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

2nd Vote Count

Drisos 1 (Silver Rusher)
Silver Rusher 2 (General Hankerchief, Crazed Rabbit)
GeneralHankerchief 1 (Drisos)
Dutch_Guy 1 (Kagemusha)

not voting ( Sigurd,Dutch_Guy)


Kommodus, perhaps where you went wrong is in having the mafia kill first then the villagers lynch. It's the other way around.

[Kommodus]

Kommodus, perhaps where you went wrong is in having the mafia kill first then the villagers lynch. It's the other way around.

I realize that. I was trying to calculate whether or not the villagers actually want to lynch anyone this round.

If they do, they'll have a 2/7 chance of getting it right. Next round they'll have either a 2/5 or a 1/5 chance of getting it right, depending on whether they get it right the first round. Then, if a mafioso survives, they'll have one more chance at 1/3 odds.

If they don't lynch anyone this round, their first execution will have a probability of 2/6 of being right. Their second execution will have odds of either 2/4 or 1/4 of being right. The question is, do they get a third chance after the mafia's third kill, in the event that there remains one villager and one mafioso? If they do, they have a 1/2 chance of getting him. If not, then that means the mafioso was allowed to kill off two victims in the final round.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Ah see, they can't have 2/4 chance. If there's two mafia and two villagers left a mafioso will never be lynched because they just won't vote for eachother. So if there are equal numbers of mafia and town then the mafia wins.

[Kommodus]

Ah see, they can't have 2/4 chance. If there's two mafia and two villagers left a mafioso will never be lynched because they just won't vote for eachother. So if there are equal numbers of mafia and town then the mafia wins.

Ah... hm... so I take it a tie vote means no execution?

In that case, by all means, execute someone this turn. :2thumbsup:

[Sigurd]

This is a hard one…


My gut feeling says GH is mafia.
Sasaki might have given this role to GH as a thank you or for old time’s sake. That is if random assignment is not followed. It has not been mentioned as far as I see in any of Sasaki’s games.
Also I think GH reacted quite fast to Silver’s post. Possibly too fast.
Vote: Generalhankerchief


Dutch_Guy has the deciding vote

[Dutch_guy]

Hmm this is hard, with absolutely nothing to go on we're confined to guessing.

This is my best one, Vote:General Hankerchief

Oh and Sigurd, the roles are chosen randomly.

:balloon2:

[Sasaki Kojiro]

3rd Vote Count

Drisos 1 (Silver Rusher)
Silver Rusher 2 (General Hankerchief, Crazed Rabbit)
GeneralHankerchief 3 (Drisos,Sigurd,Dutch_Guy)
Dutch_Guy 1 (Kagemusha)

not voting ( nobody )

[GeneralHankerchief]

As you all know, since there was an execution first nobody had anything to go on. I believe that Silver Rusher's post was extremely suspicious, so I now had something to go on. Excuse me for posting so fast. Jeez.

[Silver Rusher]

Well, if it's all that's needed here I guess I might as well:

Unvote: Drisos
Vote: GeneralHankerchief

[Orb]

That's four votes. GHC is dead. :)

[GeneralHankerchief]

Out of pure spite for that last post stating the obvious:

Unvote: Silver Rusher
Vote: Orb

[Sasaki Kojiro]

4th and final Vote Count

Drisos
Silver Rusher 2 (General Hankerchief, Crazed Rabbit)
GeneralHankerchief 3 (Drisos,Sigurd,Dutch_Guy, Silver Rusher)
Dutch_Guy 1 (Kagemusha)
Crazed Rabbit
Kagemusha
Sigurd

General Hankerchief has been executed. He was town.

Pm's please.

[Orb]

I can expect a really nasty execution for SR's game. *phew*

If I were you, I'd be looking at Dutch_Guy. He was awfully quick to bandwagon a useful player.

[Silver Rusher]

Heh, Orb isn't even playing...

[GeneralHankerchief]

I can expect a really nasty execution for SR's game. *phew*

Oh no, I don't carry grudges over to different games. Anyway, it doesn't matter because Silver asks me for the execution style before the kills are even up.

Anyways, congrats village. You're already a man down.

[Silver Rusher]

Anyways, congrats village. You're already a man down.
Well it's your fault for misguiding us by voting for me in such a suspicious way. :juggle2:

[Sasaki Kojiro]

During the night, Drisos (town) was killed.

With 5 alive it's 3 to lynch.

[Orb]

Sigurd and Dutch_Guy look suspicious to me.

[Dutch_guy]

Sigurd and Dutch_Guy look suspicious to me.

And why is that Orb ?

:balloon2:

[Crazed Rabbit]

Well, I guess I should post here and not let the game die off.

GeneralHankerchief
SilverRusher
Dutch_Guy
Crazed Rabbit
Drisos
Kagemusha
Sigurd Fafsnesfifflebane

It appears voting GHC wasn't a good idea. We still don't have that much to go on, so maybe we should try and do the whole discussion thing again.

Right now I have a couple of suspicious persons in mind, but I want to hear some discussion first so we don't lynch another innocent person.

Crazed Rabbit

[Dutch_guy]

Wow, I totally forgot about this game.


Right now I have a couple of suspicious persons in mind, but I want to hear some discussion first so we don't lynch another innocent person.

Why don't you voice your suspicions Rabbit ?

:balloon2:

[Crazed Rabbit]

Okay, I will.

I am a bit suspicious of you and Sigurd because you voted for GHC within a half hour of each other. But that's not much at all, I know.

I'm a bit more suspicious of Silver, because of his strange behavior earlier, and especially now that we know that GHC was innocent. But still, that's not that much, though that's the way I'm leaning.

There you have it.

Crazed Rabbit

[Dutch_guy]

I am a bit suspicious of you and Sigurd because you voted for GHC within a half hour of each other. But that's not much at all, I know.


Ok, well I voted for General because I didn't like the combination Crazed Rabbit and General Hankerchief both voting for Silver. That's why I decided to vote for the General, and keep my eyes out on you. Don't worry though, since it would be incredibly stupid for the mafia members to both vote the same person, my reasoning is probably flawed.

It could very well be anyone, and we can't afford to make mistakes...

:balloon2:

[Kagemusha]

To me this is kind of hard to pick anybody since Drisos was just killed. No details which could give some glues.:sweatdrop:

[Sasaki Kojiro]

To me this is kind of hard to pick anybody since Drisos was just killed. No details which could give some glues.:sweatdrop:

Well...try :p

48 hours to vote. If you don't vote, you die.

[Dutch_guy]

Vote: Kagemusha


I'm not willing to die, sorry

:balloon2:

[Crazed Rabbit]

Gah, I'm torn.

I guess I'll vote: Sigurd for using somewhat shady logic to vote for someone we know (now) is innocent.

CR

[Silver Rusher]

Gah, I'm torn.

I guess I'll vote: Sigurd for using somewhat shady logic to vote for someone we know (now) is innocent.

CR
I agree. Vote: Sigurd

[Orb]

Ach, wait, wrong Mafia game :oops:

[Sigurd]

Sorry people, my head is not in this game. I guess I should vote before getting an act of God to my head.
Only an mafioso is eager to get the game running.

Vote:Crazed Rabbit

[Kagemusha]

Well im not ready to die either. Vote Dutch Guy

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Vote Count

Sigurd 2 (Crazed Rabbit, Silver Rusher)
Kagemusha 1 (Dutch_Guy)
Dutch Guy 1 (Kagemusha)
Crazed Rabbit 1 (Sigurd)
Silver Rusher

We need 3 votes to lynch. As soon as the third vote is cast that person will be considered lynched, regardless of any unvotes that follow.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Eh, well it's been 48 hours.

Sigurd has been lynched.

Dutch Guy and Silver Rusher have been killed.

Mafia Win!

Alive (2):

Crazed Rabbit (Mafia)
Kagemusha (Mafia)

Normally I wouldn't end it without a majority vote, but Kage could have ended it right there with a vote for Sigurd, not sure why he didn't.

I guess the lesson learned is: vote carefully, or the mafia will win.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Haha, Sigurd! I guess we are even in Sasaki's mafia games now!

All of your houses have been renovated into huge rabbit hutches, and your children enslaved into the rabbit food manufacturing plant!

Good game all, and thanks Sasaki.

Crazed Rabbit

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Haha, Sigurd! I guess we are even in Sasaki's mafia games now!

All of your houses have been renovated into huge rabbit hutches, and your children enslaved into the rabbit food manufacturing plant!

Good game all, and thanks Sasaki.

Crazed Rabbit

It was interesting. I played in this format on another board, and we were over 200 posts just on day 1. But, there were a couple people who had been playing for years and really know how to keep discussion going. The whole game proceded at the pace of the .org endgames. If you'd be interesting in hosting a basic 7 player game in this format I'd love to try to get it up and running like it should.

[Kagemusha]

Sorry guys real life issues kept me busy so my heart really wasnt fully in this game. But Congrats Rabbit! Mafia victory is always a great thing to have!:2thumbsup:

[Sigurd]

Haha, Sigurd! I guess we are even in Sasaki's mafia games now!
True...:duel:

I had no overwhelming evidence like you had in 'Gotta have more mafia'
but your actions and 'innocence' in this game was similar to what i would have done if I were mafia.
I guess I was just a little lucky naming you as mafia here. :shame:

[Crazed Rabbit]

I will say I'm surprised at how you managed to squeak through those last rounds in gotta have more mafia.

I think I played this game pretty well-noone really suspected me.

Crazed Rabbit

[Dutch_guy]

I think I played this game pretty well-noone really suspected me.


True, you played the fanatical, but ''innocent'' villager part well.

Only once, maybe twice did I suspect you. Kage, on the other hand, totally got me. Which to be fair, has to be because he was a bit less active - in the discussions - than you were, Rabbit .

:balloon2:

[Crazed Rabbit]

What were the other, non-mafia roles, you mentioned at the begining Sasaki?

Crazed Rabbit

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Silver was the cop. He investigated Drisos...bad luck lol.

[Silver Rusher]

Silver was the cop. He investigated Drisos...bad luck lol.
Yep, and my second choice was CR. :wall: I figured that if Drisos was in fact in the mafia the townspeople would lose if I didn't investigate.