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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Greyblades
I think the best outcome we can reasonably hope for is that the chinese say "fuck it, he's gone too far" and pull the plug; end the kim bloodline, let the korean brass dissapear into an mongolian gulag and turn the ruins into yet another Chinese province.
This would not be the best outcome for the people of North Korea. One Korea, run by Koreans using the basic framework of governance now used in the South would be best.
I do acknowledge, however, that Chinese domination would provide a more stable government for them, and one that is at least vaguely concerned with feeding its own people and allowing them something resembling opportunity.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
It's the best we can reasonably expect without somehow getting the chinese to ignore the USA liberating a nation right on ther doorstep, which vietnam somewhat indicated would never ever happen.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Greyblades
It's the best we can reasonably expect without somehow getting the chinese to ignore the USA liberating a nation right on ther doorstep, which vietnam somewhat indicated would never ever happen.
No, they wouldn't stand for the US liberating NK, nor Japan. An "Anschluss" with SK, maybe, as long as SK made the Yalu valley into some form of DMZ.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
No, they wouldn't stand for the US liberating NK, nor Japan. An "Anschluss" with SK, maybe, as long as SK made the Yalu valley into some form of DMZ.
They could be comfortable if two points could be secured:
1. No US forces or installations north of the old DMZ.
2. General drawdown of US military presence in Korea given expiration of overt security justification.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Montmorency
They could be comfortable if two points could be secured:
1. No US forces or installations north of the old DMZ.
2. General drawdown of US military presence in Korea given expiration of overt security justification.
More or less what I meant. They will not feel threatened by a unified Korea, especially one that abjured WMD. US or other Western forces would be a different matter. Post Napoleonic to Pre-WW2 Chinese history does not leave them predisposed to allow the Western powers anything resembling a foothold so close to the Middle Kingdom.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
Eastern-Germany solution for North Korea.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
More or less what I meant. They will not feel threatened by a unified Korea, especially one that abjured WMD. US or other Western forces would be a different matter. Post Napoleonic to Pre-WW2 Chinese history does not leave them predisposed to allow the Western powers anything resembling a foothold so close to the Middle Kingdom.
I dont believe that the chinese would be happy without any control over a potential unified korea, they would need some collateral to ensure the US or korea would not go back on any deals, promieses wont cut it.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Greyblades
I dont believe that the chinese would be happy without any control over a potential unified korea, they would need some collateral to ensure the US or korea would not go back on any deals, promieses wont cut it.
Closed bases might count towards that. Harder to put troops back after they're out.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Montmorency
Closed bases might count towards that. Harder to put troops back after they're out.
Is China worried about the number of US solders or the deployment of advanced weapons systems? The addition of North Korea allows better coverage of activity from China's northern provinces.
Even without a single US troop in Korea, they can still sell THAAD components to the South Korean military.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
Is China worried about the number of US solders or the deployment of advanced weapons systems? The addition of North Korea allows better coverage of activity from China's northern provinces.
Even without a single US troop in Korea, they can still sell THAAD components to the South Korean military.
Sure, that's a kicker without even having US-operated installations in the North, or even throughout the country.
On the other hand, with the 'sole aggressor' disarmed, it is much easier for China to pressure Korea against it. Think, if they raise a Crimea-tier fuss over installations near Seoul while KJU is on the cusp of demonstrating a proper capability, can ROK politicians justify it to their citizens and corporate stakeholders when North Korea is no more and money needs to be funneled there for reconstruction anyway?
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
Question is if china can out pressure the US's influence. I dont think china would take the chance.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Beskar
Eastern-Germany solution for North Korea.
I wouldn't like to see a french kiss between Un and Pu.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
What's different from this incident is that Kim Jong-un angered China and Malaysia. Both are reacting strongly against him. And from the looks of it, it's possible that Vietnam and Indonesia could get angered. I'm beginning to think that the North Korean agents tricked a Vietnamese girl and an Indonesian one into doing this. I don't know if you guys saw the news on what Malaysia will do to them. (I understand why the Malaysians would be angered about the VX attack in their airport). North Korea will get even more isolated than ever before.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Montmorency
Sure, that's a kicker without even having US-operated installations in the North, or even throughout the country.
On the other hand, with the 'sole aggressor' disarmed, it is much easier for China to pressure Korea against it. Think, if they raise a Crimea-tier fuss over installations near Seoul while KJU is on the cusp of demonstrating a proper capability, can ROK politicians justify it to their citizens and corporate stakeholders when North Korea is no more and money needs to be funneled there for reconstruction anyway?
That seems to be an answerable question. Are there any recent polls of SK citizens regarding their opinion of China?
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
That seems to be an answerable question. Are there any recent polls of SK citizens regarding their opinion of China?
Not so simple for those politicians without firm international support. If China expands its domination over SE Asia and the archipelagan states and US bases are closed and troops drawn down from Korea, there wouldn't be much scope to act unless Japan and the US take a generally more-aggressive stance toward China than they have so far - in which case withdrawing troops would prove to have been a major strategic blunder anyway.
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1 Attachment(s)
Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
a completely inoffensive name
That seems to be an answerable question. Are there any recent polls of SK citizens regarding their opinion of China?
Recent, as in 2014. Close enough
Attachment 19514
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Sarmatian
Down with Pakistan.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
Pakistan was one of our more damaging mistakes.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
I have to admit, North Korea knows how to insult Trump, saying that Trump is too much like Obama.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Montmorency
2. General drawdown of US military presence in Korea given expiration of overt security justification.
The US values Korea due to Korea's close proximity to China and Russia. A lot of the US citizens aren't aware of this. Also, South Korea has a large and modern military, all paid by South Korea. Take note that John Kerry was the first to ask the former South Korean president to have THAAD deployed. This was when he met her in Korea. She refused because she knew that would anger China. China is South Korea's largest market. And South Korea was the biggest exporter to China. John Kerry asked again via phone. She refused. This shows that the US has its own interest in having THAAD deployed there. THAAD in Korea acts as an early warning system for the US. It was when North Korea continued to test missiles and nukes (including missiles that could be fired from submarines) that made the former South Korean president change her mind. Also, remember that the presidents such as Carter and Reagan wanted to withdraw the US troops, but they changed their minds. Trump is no longer demanding money from South Korea because he was informed that South Korea actually pays a big proportion for the US bases in Korea. The first person to inform him was a Korean-American who questioned him during his presidential race. Trump refused to believe him. The next person to inform Trump was Wolf Blitzer during an interview at CNN. Trump clearly looked surprised. I'm pretty sure that he got more informed during his presidency.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
Keep asking it but getting no response to it, what if that fat joke isn't in charge at all. Think of it, did he really ordered his favorite uncle to be shred into pieces or was he forced to watch that happening. I must have a sick mind but I think I am right. Look at the guy.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Fragony
Keep asking it but getting no response to it, what if that fat joke isn't in charge at all. Think of it, did he really ordered his favorite uncle to be shred into pieces or was he forced to watch that happening. I must have a sick mind but I think I am right. Look at the guy.
To what end such a deception?
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
To what end such a deception?
In my musings, maybe the people who are really in charge just need a figurehead, and we got it all wrong. Maybe his father was in full control, but now the generals are. The propaganda about his uberskills is so rediculous that it might be intentionally rediculous, not to believed but to disempower, making people live the lie. Nofth-Koreans can't be so far off that they actually believe he scored a hole in one the first time he tried, or could drive aa car when he was 3 years old. It are too obvious a lie
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Seamus Fermanagh
To what end such a deception?
Perhaps they need him, as Fragony says. They might need him because they spent decades making the Kims the magical unicorn leaders who are the only ones able to save their "besieged" nation. I say that because what Fragony says fits with all the rumors of Kim Jong Un wanting to do this or that which then either didn't happen or just on a very small scale. Even if he isn't just a figurehead, he may have some very strong competition.
The one thing I keep wondering about is how he can have studied for years in Switzerland and then go back and think his country is fine. Even from an egoistical point of view he is the ruler of a polished mud hole to some extent.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Husar
Perhaps they need him, as Fragony says. They might need him because they spent decades making the Kims the magical unicorn leaders who are the only ones able to save their "besieged" nation. I say that because what Fragony says fits with all the rumors of Kim Jong Un wanting to do this or that which then either didn't happen or just on a very small scale. Even if he isn't just a figurehead, he may have some very strong competition.
The one thing I keep wondering about is how he can have studied for years in Switzerland and then go back and think his country is fine. Even from an egoistical point of view he is the ruler of a polished mud hole to some extent.
Yes and my inner Machivalian considers that this can be used against the real regime without killiing anything at all. The unicorn can be a sword of damoclas when used right. They created the myth, that is usefull. as it can completily be used against them, I don't believe he let his favorite uncle being torn apart by dogs, my version makes more sense imho and is certainly less bloody
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
China would only be satisfied if their troops were marching and eventually overseeing South Korea alongside an American withdrawal: bases can be reopened after a few years and as has been said, a country ruled by the South using american equipment and undertaking wargames with America is no different.
If a hot war were to ever actively start, Chinese troops (or possibly special police units) would be helping support the population and ensure stability possibly even with the North' blessing (better a nice life in China than warcrimes trial in the Hague).
~:smoking:
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
Of course it could just mean, as the media has speculated since his accession, that he has to work harder than his forebears to maintain control over government factions. There's no need to speculate that he is a figurehead for that to apply.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
rory_20_uk
China would only be satisfied if their troops were marching and eventually overseeing South Korea alongside an American withdrawal
North Korea, you mean. China would definitely make a strong push to oversee, or at least participate in, the security occupation of the North (and from there delay reintegration with the South or maintain an semi-autonomous zone).
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Montmorency
Of course it could just mean, as the media has speculated since his accession, that he has to work harder than his forebears to maintain control over government factions. There's no need to speculate that he is a figurehead for that to apply.
A lot would fall into place if he is though. It's just a pet-theory of me but it's a good 'what if' to assume that he isn't in control at all. Look at the possibities if so, North-Korea could be pacified without shooting a single bullet if I'm right and save thousands of lifes. Invite the fattie over and give him something he can sell to his people, food supplies for example, his people don't have to know they were just given. Why not try it, it's the best scenario for everyone, if it is like I think it is the real enemies have nothing, who would defy the prodigal leader after all, checkmate. Clean and bloodless. Only psychopaths like killing.
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Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?
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Originally Posted by
Montmorency
North Korea, you mean. China would definitely make a strong push to oversee, or at least participate in, the security occupation of the North (and from there delay reintegration with the South or maintain an semi-autonomous zone).
If there were a war, the North Would inflict massive civilian casualties and then almost immediately fall to pieces as their existing infrastructure collapses and is blown to pieces by the South / USA. Of course hard points would survive since they are buried under mountains but to try and engage in defence outside of these areas would be futile.
The South, having suffered so much would at the very least want to push the DMZ 100 miles further North to protect themselves - and as before why stop there? Would China just hope that they establish a smaller North Korea under UN oversight or would they preemptively secure this themselves just as the Russians did?
A United Korea would only be if China had oversight over it. Vassal states at their borders are to be their vassals.
~:smoking: