2012 Electiageddon Electopolypse Now: A Field Guide to the Repubs

[Lemur]

Nate Silver does a nice round-up of the potential Repub candidates. I know it's a bit early for this sort of thing, but I thought it worth discussing. GOP Orgahs, whom do you like? Dislike? Reasons?

One can certainly debate exactly what it means to be a moderate or a conservative, and exactly where any particular candidate falls along this spectrum. Likewise, the insider/outsider dimension is somewhat blurry: is a potential candidate like Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina, who aligns himself with the Tea Party but is also an influential senator, a part of the Republican establishment or an opponent of it? So my placement of the candidates is necessarily approximate.

With that said, it is exceptionally important to consider how the candidates are positioned relative to one another. Too often, I see analyses of candidates that operate through what I’d call a checkbox paradigm, tallying up individual candidates’ strengths and weaknesses but not thinking deeply about how they will compete with one another for votes. If you like, you can think of the circles on my chart as stars or planets that exert gravitational forces on one another, seeking to clear their own safe space in the galaxy while at the same time stealing matter (voters) from their opponents.

There are two more kinds of information embedded in the chart. First, the area of each candidate’s circle is proportional to their perceived likelihood of winning the nomination, according to the Intrade betting market. Mitt Romney’s circle is drawn many times the size of the one for the relatively obscure talk-radio host Herman Cain because Intrade rates Mr. Romney many times as likely to be nominated. [...]

[T]he color of each circle reflects the region the candidate is from: blue for the Northeast, red for the South, green for the Midwest, and yellow for the West.

[Subotan]

Electiageddon? I like that word. A lot.

[gaelic cowboy]

One thing that always intrigues me about America is the idea that candidates may be picked that appeal to a narrow base in there parties,but then find they lack appeal nationally. How would you all say the respective candidates poll nationally versus inside the party

[Husar]

One thing that always intrigues me about America is the idea that candidates may be picked that appeal to a narrow base in there parties,but then find they lack appeal nationally. How would you all say the respective candidates poll nationally versus inside the party

That's because America is so polarized between the rightists and the even more rightists.
But an interesting question, at the moment though the Democrats may support a whackier candidate just because they hope it makes him/the Republicans more likely to lose in the end.

I'm intrigued by Romney getting the biggest blob, should make TuffStuff happy but I thought hardly anyone liked the guy last time?

[Beirut]

Anybody but Romney, please. The guy is a hairdo and looks phonier than a bad photocopy of a three-dollar bill.

[Ronin]

Jon Stewart is gonna have a field day with this bunch of genius.

[Fisherking]

Spare me please.

It is traditional for the voters to select the least bad candidate.

If there is a Politician or a Party you think you like you just haven’t done enough research.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Argh.

No thanks on Palin, Barbour, Guliani, or Gingrich.

I haven't studied Pawlenty, and he might be acceptable.

But my favorite is Johnson.

CR

[Fragony]

That has to be one of the best thread titles ever, although the award still goes to Faisal's 'HOT HOPLITE ACTION'

[a completely inoffensive name]

Out of any of the Republican candidates I would actually favor either Ron Paul or Romney.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Out of any of the Republican candidates I would actually favor either Ron Paul or Romney.

You should check out Johnson. I think he will get Paul's endorsement, as IIRC Paul isn't running.

CR

[a completely inoffensive name]

You should check out Johnson. I think he will get Paul's endorsement, as IIRC Paul isn't running.

CR

I know Johnson. He is terrible. He replaced Russ Feingold which was a travesty, considering he refused to talk to the media and let his money buy enough advertisements to victory. His speeches are nothing but Tea Party rhetoric. He is a terrible candidate.

[Crazed Rabbit]

I think you may be talking about a different Johnson; I'm talking about the former governor of New Mexico.

CR

[a completely inoffensive name]

I think you may be talking about a different Johnson; I'm talking about the former governor of New Mexico.

CR

Whoops my bad. This other Johnson seems much better yes. He has enough sense to speak publicly about ending the war on drugs.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Still a Romney fan. I am literally a card carrying member of the Mitt Romney Fan Club (his PAC).

Pawlenty I wouldn't have to hold my nose for, Huntsman I like, I would vote for Ron Paul if I had a few in me. I'd vote for Thune if I had to, but I think he's a lightweight - same for Huckabee who irritates me and Barbour who has boss hoss written all over him. I love Rick Santorum, but he wouldn't pass anyones test. I would never vote for Daniels, Pataki or Giuliani in the primary but I would probably vote yay in the general. Trump is scum, Palin is a massive disappointment, and Gingrich is a washed up freak. Bachman is a bit creepy. Jim DeMint and Johnson I couldn't care less about.

I'd like to see how Christie or even Paul Ryan would start polling, even though I know they haven't come far enough just yet. Hopefully Ryan wins Herb Kohl's seat at the next chance because representatives don't have a realistic chance.

[PanzerJaeger]

I like a number of people on that list, especially Johnson, Daniels, and Thune; but in terms of a candidate who could actually win a national election, I support Pawlenty. He is intelligent, articulate, and has a strong record of governing in a traditionally blue state. He is also interested in tackling big issues such as debt and entitlements instead of divisive and ultimately unimportant wedge issues. I think he could bring a level of managerial competence back to the White House.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Changed my mind, I want this guy to be the Republican candidate:

[Tuuvi]

As a Utahn I'm kinda partial to Jon Huntsman because I think he did a pretty good job as governor of the state but I need to be more educated before I know for sure.

[Husar]

Changed my mind, I want this guy to be the Republican candidate:

I bet he got his Master of Communication in the Army.

[Fragony]

Still a Romney fan. I am literally a card carrying member of the Mitt Romney Fan Club

That Romney is exactly the type of guy that gets caught strapped up in leather with a male hooker in a random rundown motel in Nevada. That boy's butt looks way to clean

[a completely inoffensive name]

That Romney is exactly the type of guy that gets caught strapped up in leather with a male hooker in a random rundown motel in Nevada. That boy's butt looks way to clean

Normally yes, but he is Mormon. Unless you have met them you wouldn't understand. They really are super clean and cut and proper like that.

[Samurai Waki]

Johnson (R-NM) Hands Down.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Three words:

Dig. Up. Reagan.

[Subotan]

[Centurion1]

i like mitt romney quite a bit. i was a fan in the last primaries. however, americans probably will never vote in a mormon. too many people get the willies around them because their religion is...... yeah complete bull but yah know. But he is a good politician who was actually quite popular in mass. which is so blue its purple.

a like pawlenty as well.

i think an up and comer though he isnt going to be running for president fro wuite awhile at least is bobby jindall.

[Greyblades]

Wow, he looks better in death than he did in life.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Three words:

Dig. Up. Reagan.

* immediately presents video of digged up Reagan *

Oh God I love the internet, I love it!

[Tuuvi]

i like mitt romney quite a bit. i was a fan in the last primaries. however, americans probably will never vote in a mormon. too many people get the willies around them because their religion is...... yeah complete bull but yah know. But he is a good politician who was actually quite popular in mass. which is so blue its purple.

a like pawlenty as well.

i think an up and comer though he isnt going to be running for president fro wuite awhile at least is bobby jindall.

Just so you know being Mormon doesn't stop you from liking TW games and posting in forums...be careful what you say.

[Strike For The South]

Lighten up Francis

What are you going to do? Stab him? You best be careful or I'm toattly going to flame you!

lolololololololololololololol

[HoreTore]

I think you may be talking about a different Johnson

Oh gosh.....

Quick, someone make a penis joke! I'm all out!