Civil War in Libya

[al Roumi]

Another "realist", Dmitiry Medvedev, has come out with this:

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev does not appear to be joining the condemnation of the violent crackdown on protesters in Libya. Instead he has issued a warning about "decades of instability" in the Arab world if protesters whom he calls "fanatics" come to power, adding no similar scenario would be permitted in Russia.

"These states are not simple and it is quite likely that complicated developments may occur, including the rise of fanatics to power - this would mean decades of flames and the spread of extremism, let's look the truth in the eye," Medvedev was quoted as saying.
"They prepared such a scenario for us before and... they are trying to do it now. In any case, this attempt will fail," Medvedev told security officials in Vladikavkaz, a city in Russia's North Caucasus.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog...dates#block-21

[al Roumi]

The topic was based on oil, yet you've crossed that out. Fixed, or screwed up?

I hate to break it to you, but things in the world are interconnected: military planes have deserted to the west, demands are made of the west.

To be honest if your opinion is based merely on those that are ignoring the West are better I'm not hankering for your approval.

Oh dear, sorry Rory.

Edit:

While I can but agree that oil prices do affect almost everything, the welfare of people in the first few countries you listed is more susceptible to hikes in food prices than oil.

For example, the following news from Syria today, where the govt must be feeling the heat in some way (i wonder how? ) to be quite so un-characteristicaly generous and responsive to the needs of their population (also note the mention of public sector workers' heating bills):

DAMASCUS, 22 February 2011 (IRIN) - Syria's decision to make cash payments to thousands of vulnerable families and reduce some taxes could help stem food insecurity and rising poverty, but many still do not have enough to eat, say experts.

Payments have begun to be made from a new fund designed to help 420,000 vulnerable families. The National Social Aid Fund has been in the pipeline for several years, was set up in January and made its first payments on 13 February.

Two days later, the government reduced duties on a range of basic foodstuffs including rice, tea, powdered milk, coffee and bananas. It also lowered taxes on vegetable oil, margarine, unroasted coffee and sugar.

Shortly after the ouster of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on 14 January, the government also announced a 72 percent rise in heating fuel subsidies for public sector employees.

"Traditionally the Middle East and North Africa has been relatively food secure,” said Arne Oshaug, a nutrition and food security expert at Akershus University College in Norway. “But many countries now produce less and rely on imports which are subject to price fluctuations.”

This is beginning to affect more affluent people too. An index of food vulnerability by Nomura, a Japanese investment house, found that on average 47.9 percent of household income is spent on food in Syria.

"When people spend so much of their income on food, a slight variation in the price can upset their ability to eat enough to avoid hunger,” said Oshaug.

Syria is faced with decreasing oil reserves and a growing population, limiting its options. Food prices have been rising and at the same time some subsidies, such as on fuel, have decreased.

"It's very hard to survive,” said one herder on the outskirts of Damascus. “We can barely afford the basics of tea, bread and sugar.”

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportID=91999

[ICantSpellDawg]

Another "realist", Dmitiry Medvedev, has come out with this:

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev does not appear to be joining the condemnation of the violent crackdown on protesters in Libya. Instead he has issued a warning about "decades of instability" in the Arab world if protesters whom he calls "fanatics" come to power, adding no similar scenario would be permitted in Russia.

"These states are not simple and it is quite likely that complicated developments may occur, including the rise of fanatics to power - this would mean decades of flames and the spread of extremism, let's look the truth in the eye," Medvedev was quoted as saying.
"They prepared such a scenario for us before and... they are trying to do it now. In any case, this attempt will fail," Medvedev told security officials in Vladikavkaz, a city in Russia's North Caucasus.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog...dates#block-21

Sounds like he's channeling PanzerJaeger. Scaremongers the lot of them. People who sacrifice freedom for security will end up with neither, as the old cliche goes. The difference is that Medvedev and other un-democratic leaders have something to gain by their misguided cynicism, PJ just looks gullible.

[al Roumi]

The difference is that Medvedev and other un-democratic leaders have something to gain by their misguided cynicism, PJ just looks gullible.

...or like a (crypto?) fascist.

In China too, their reporting of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt has always carried strong messages about how bad and dangerous the instability is. What a surprise.

[Strike For The South]

If you can't see the difference between PJs tempering of spirits and the Russian prime minsters vieled threat to the federations Islamic enclaves than there is no hope for either of you

I love democracy and am glad this is happening but I am fully aware that it could hamper US policy goals in the region

Granted, most of what we do falls under neo colonialism so can't say I'd be to upset

[gaelic cowboy]

The real test of democracy does not occur in the revolution itself, but when disagreements emerge between the victorious revolutionaries.

In your own American Revolution there must have been litterally thousands of people burned out of there homes after as loyalists, we could probably tick the same boxes about that revolution as many are about the present one in the Middle East.

The point is it is a bit early to be rubbishing these peoples efforts, if they do fall under dictatorship then it is there loss.

[Fragony]

Go Libya. I am watching all this with great pleasure despite the loss of life. Don't think I would have their cojones.

[ICantSpellDawg]

There is concern and then there is the other side. I am concerned but hopefull and I support the endeavor. PJ opposes revolutions in the middle east and apoligizes for dictators. He is sayign that we should support our "friends" because they help to make us richer.

This position is anachronistic and morally bankrupt under the guise of "realism". The reality is that there is a wave of revolution spreading, we have no way to stop it and there are ways of using it to our advantage without hurting civilians tryign to catch a break.

[Lemur]

It is unfair to equate PJ's comments with those of the kleptocrats in Russia. PJ is urging realism and caution, and reacting against the (predictable and typically American) euphoria that has gripped a lot of my countrymen and women. And it's true, Americans are suckers for anyone rising up and doing their best Braveheart impression. It's a national weakness, granted.

Now, I disagree with PJ's position, but I think you, TuffStuff, are putting proto-fascist sentiment where none was expressed. He's suggesting that the changes taking place may not be in our best interests. This is true. He's saying that revolutions often get really bad, sometimes becoming worse than what they replaced. This is also true. He's saying that the regions experiencing violent change sit on an awful lot of the world's oil supply, and that any disruption to that supply would be jolting, destructive and hard on the same western democracies cheerleading the revolutions. This is true. He's pointing out that the autocracies falling have been nominally pro-western, while the generally anti-western autocracies (Syria, Iran) are standing firm for the moment. This is all true.

And yet, and yet, and yet. The status quo is unsustainable, the people have discovered their power, and there's no going back. So on the basis of the facts on the ground, PJ's perspective is useless. It's like looking at modern-day Russia and wishing that the Soviet Union were back. Fine, wish for it, enumerate all the ways a single, monolithic enemy was more manageable than a multi-polar world. Or better yet, why not wish for the Czars? You can make plenty of valid points about how much better things were under Peter the Great. As a guide to action and what the west should do? Pointless.

Lastly, I can't believe nobody has referenced the classic revolution-gone-wrong song:



-edit-

Lastly, I would strongly recommend that PJ and TuffStuff and anyone interested in this read the following article, which does a very good job of outlining why the status quo is unsustainable:

Libya is North Africa’s most prosperous country, given its tremendous oil wealth and small population. Yet most Libyans live in deplorable conditions. The state provides little by way of civil society and does not take care of even the most basic government obligations. There are police to control people who stray from supporting the Leader, but there is little else. As a housing crisis has escalated in the past few years, the regime has made no effort to provide adequate public accommodation. Wealth is concentrated in the hands of the very few. It would have been easy for Qaddafi to raise the standard of living for the population as a whole either by creating a sustainable non-oil economy or simply by distributing some portion of oil revenues, but he chose to do neither. [...]

When a third of the population is under fifteen and a further large proportion is under twenty-five, the young become central to coherent governance. Qaddafi has stuck with his old cronies, and has not taken on board the nature of the widespread discontent. The most obvious problem here, as in much of the Middle East, is vast youth unemployment, for the amelioration of which there are no programs at all. Qaddafi has never made any attempt to reach out to disgruntled youth, and they feel that their voices are not heard and carry no weight.

[tibilicus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12544624

A speech from "the prophet" himself. We all knew he had some screws loose but hes literally lost it.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

So Our Libya leader friend wants to die a martyr? Then lets send him a medal then!

[PanzerJaeger]

Sounds like he's channeling PanzerJaeger. Scaremongers the lot of them. People who sacrifice freedom for security will end up with neither, as the old cliche goes. The difference is that Medvedev and other un-democratic leaders have something to gain by their misguided cynicism, PJ just looks gullible.

Ad hominems, appeals to emotion, and righteous indignation have never had much effect on me.

It is great that you are excited about these rebellions. I find it more difficult to applaud actions that result in diminished Western influence and greater instability in a critical region of the world, and all for less than certain outcomes.

Hopefully it will all work out, and I’m not advocating that we should take action to suppress these people. President Obama has actually done a good job in dealing with the situation. He has essentially told our allies behind the scenes that if they can reign in their dissidents we will continue our relationship with them, while being quick to jump ship when it is certain that the government would fall – making it appear like we’ve been on the side of the dissidents the whole time. Hopefully that will engender some pro-American sentiments.

[Rhyfelwyr]

The fact that the protestors have dubbed their new state "The Islamic Emirate of Benghazi" isn't exactly encouraging.

Also, it sounds like the conflict in Libya is more complicated than in Egypt, it seems Libya is less of a coherent nation state, and tribalism has as much to do with deciding loyalties as political ideology does.

If you think about it, Libya meets none of the preconditions for making a healthy democracy (little economic development, no civil society to speak of, etc), so I wouldn't get too optimistic. Likewise for Bahrain.

Egypt and Tunisia on the other hand look much more promising...

[gaelic cowboy]

Well if you look at a topographic and then major population center maps the country looks like its divided into three, if your only looking after your own tribe as apparently Gadaffi was then your asking for trouble.

[Rahwana]

I still had my symphaty with Khaddafi, he try his best to quashing a rebellion, not merely killing civilians.

What happened now is almost the same with China's Tinanmen things, one time "brutality" will be forgetted in less than 10 years

[Idaho]

The fact that the protestors have dubbed their new state "The Islamic Emirate of Benghazi" isn't exactly encouraging.

I wouldn't get all riled up just yet

[HoreTore]

I still had my symphaty with Khaddafi, he try his best to quashing a rebellion, not merely killing civilians.

What happened now is almost the same with China's Tinanmen things, one time "brutality" will be forgetted in less than 10 years

Are you serious.....?

Rhy: "emirate" is because they want a return of the monarchy. "islamic" is because they want to distance themselves from Ghaddafi's policies, ie. his weird version of political islam.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Gaddafi's rant of yesterday was true stereotype-insane-dictator comedy gold. Every cliché in the book, (Green Book, obviously) with a nice riff on my personal favourite of the "personally fight to the last drop of blood and bullet" routine.

I am not one who favours extra-judicial murders but Gaddafi is not someone I would mourn should he be swinging from a date palm later this week. I would hope that the one intervention the West must make is to pledge that whichever rat-hole he intends to run away to, we intercept his transport and put him on trial in the Hague. It shouldn't be long now as the army seems to be deserting him - including his trusted Minister of the Interior.

[Strike For The South]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12550326

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has announced increased benefits for his citizens, as he returned after months abroad getting medical treatment.
There will be extra funds for housing, studying abroad and social security, according to state television.

[al Roumi]

Ad hominems, appeals to emotion, and righteous indignation

Are they though really? Your posts here speak of a singular concern for the US' interests and, what I can only interpret as, conscious disregard for the greater issue at hand, which is quite plainly about the plight and self determination of a different people.

Furthermore, your frank acceptance of what looks very much like an "any means neccessary" approach to securing and maintaining US interests around the world is, IMHO, a moraly bankrupt and appalingly callous position.

At least you are honest about it.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Gaddafi has built his house on sand. He is surrounded by mercenaries and mad-men at this point. Quintuple whatever he is paying his soldiers for the first guy to turn the gun on Muammar.

Gaddafi seems to have solid control over Tripoli at this point. The concern is that since this is really now a civil war rather than any sort of demonstration, it sould go on for a week, a month or longer. Hopefully, since the economic powerhouse exists in the East and Gaddafi has lost any semblance of respect from his own people, the paid murderers will catch on quickly that the blood money is going to dry up before they can leave the country.

[Idaho]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12550326

The house of Saud must be bricking it atm.

[al Roumi]

You might have thought so but not much seems to be stirring so far afaik. I read somewhere this morning that a facebook page has been created calling for a day of rage in the Kingdom on March 11, but that only 500 people had signed up to it and there was no-guaranteee that they were even in Saudi.

edit: that's not neccessarily an indicator of anything much though really

[ICantSpellDawg]

Sharting half liquid bricks?

[Rhyfelwyr]

Sharting

I just heard what that actually meant not long ago.... WHY???

[ICantSpellDawg]

Why can't the NRA give some money to have guns airdropped into Libya?

****Warning - extremely graphic content not suitable for watching while at work.

Edit: Removed. BG

People need to see what is going on. You can't post it on facebook, I figured that the backroom was the only place it was appropriate.

Sorry, Tuff, it is long-standing Backroom policy that forbids the posting of graphic scenes of death. It's perfectly possible for members to search youtube and similar sites if they wish to view the atrocities being committed in Libya. BG

[ICantSpellDawg]

can I send it to peoples private account?

[Viking]

Pretty fascinating video from CNN in Benghazi: http://edition.cnn.com/video/?/video...azi.voices.cnn

In stark contrast to the initial YT videos from the city showing scenes of violence.

[edyzmedieval]

Gadhafi accused al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden of being behind the uprising

The irony of the situation is just too much to bear.

[Banquo's Ghost]

can I send it to peoples private account?

Private Messages are just that - private. I wouldn't recommend spamming people but if they ask, or you feel you know them well enough that they might be interested, of course you can PM your links.