It's based on a few things now. Plot power determines your chance of success, but now the number of plotters involved determines how often your plot can strike. There's now a big incentive to get as many people on board with your campaign to kill someone as you can, and feels a lot more dynamic than before.
In my previous game I set myself up to inherit the kingdom of Castile and attempted to murder the king with 5+ plotters.. i swear to god it was like a historical parody. He dodged every single one, including a runaway carriage, a falling stone from a battlement, a mistimed hunting accident and a misfire at an archery range. I never have seen such luck! But never once found out who was after him either..
After the 5th attempt i gave up and declared war.
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