No, it doesn't. We know it can't be Naive Cop, and I don't know what the Macho Cop does, but assuming Sane Cop is the only one that gives the correct answer, Visor has a one in four shot of being mafia.
How many mafia are in this game? Two? Three? Five?
With so many power roles in the town's hands, I'd have to say at least 3, perhaps more. In which case, there being 13 living players left, we have about a one in four shot of hitting mafia if we lynch at random.
The only thing that could make it worth it to lynch Visorslash solely because of the scan result would be getting some extra insight as to what JHT's role is. But then again, if he's right about Visorslash, he probably won't live to scan again. If he's not, his role is almost useless until we figure it out, but he might still get killed just because of the risk of him being a paranoid cop.
That said, I might vote for Visor anyway. We have enough votes to lynch him though. I'll leave my vote open in case I see someone pull a scummy move and we ought to change the lynch.
Vote: Abstain
Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer: The Gameroom
I can assure you that JHT is a paranoid or insane cop.
Atheotes is a much better lynch then me.
EDIT: Macho cops can't be protected.
As an outed cop who can't even be trusted to influence the lynch with his scans, he will not live long anyway.he probably won't live to scan again.
Lynch the both of them.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
With the first post I thought John was joking lol
Atheotes did lynch Monty, but imo the latter is to blame, for putting his usual "networky, know it all" aura, which townies so love to lynch...
Visor did joke vote on D1, but so does everybody else pretty much: in any other game, I'd vote Visor, but here we could've town powers working against itself...
Vote: Chaotix
He should know how Monty plays, but still worked on the town's paranoia and he has been in his "helpful townie" persona, which he lately picked up as mafia (see for example the "nobody is hosting" game), keeping distance even with this runaway wagon...
Of all people he's the one trying the hardest to keep it cool...
If the macho cop is as Visor says, then JHT has a 3/5 chance of getting the right answer:
If target is mafia: Sane, Macho, Paranoid are correct.
If target is town: Sane, Macho and Naive are correct.
Assuming for the sake of argument that there are 3 scum roles, that gives us a 3/5 probability of Visorslash being scum, versus a 3/13 chance of lynching scum if we lynch randomly.
That said, now that I've typed this I've realised there's the possibility that JHT is a lying mafioso, in which case he can just plead insanity and get away with it. But that seems a bit of a high-risk play by mafia for D2, and I think I'm willing to risk it.
Oh, please. I am the definition of cool.
Nobody can make me sweat.
Not even a little.
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
I do know how Monty plays. It's just that he was practically asking to be lynched, and when someone does that you just gotta lynch them because if you don't and they turn out to be mafia, then everyone feels like an idiot.
Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer: The Gameroom
vote: Visorslash.
Always meet on the level, act by the plumb and part on the square.
2B1ASK1
Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer: The Gameroom
Funny maths.
Sane, Macho, Paranoid, Insane. The last two are worthless: 50%.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer: The Gameroom
Last edited by Ishmael; 07-09-2012 at 15:06. Reason: Paranoid and insane mixed up
I will say what is macho policeman in this game (if he is here...).
Macho policeman: gets correct results of scans; if he is protected, his scanning ability does not work for this night (protection acts additionally as a roleblocking at him)
What do we want to look at? We want to know the probability of Visor being scum based on the result.
There are 4 possible roles, and two always give a valid result.
A third - insane - gives an opposite result, so a guilty result would indicate a 0% chance.
The fourth - paranoid - always gives the same result, so we'll take your figure for random and give it a 3/13 chance.
So 1.00*.25 + 1.00*.25 + .23*.25 = .5575 = about 56% chance.
Happy?
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
For our purposes, if JHT is a Paranoid Cop then his result on Visorslash has no bearing on whether or not he's mafia. Whereas Sane and Macho mean for sure that he's mafia, and Insane means the opposite. So technically the chances for Visorslash being mafia come out to 50% + (25% * 3/13). But that is so close to 50% that it would be annoying to insinuate it's a significant difference, especially after all those other times that my math was wrong and I was corrected.
EDIT: Pirate Ninja Robot Zombie'd.
Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer: The Gameroom
Stop turning mafia into maths!
I agree with the Visorslash lynch
Vote:Visorslash
John's results are still better than lynching randomly IMO.
Tally:
Visorslash: johnhughtom, Edse, Zaccino, Atheotes, Ishmael, BSmith, Chaotix, Memnon,
Atheotes: Visorslash,
Zaccino: The King
Chaotix: Arjos
Not voting: Robbiecon, Daveshack
Visorslash was lynched!
Night 2 begins.
Living:
1. DaveShack
2. Edse
3. Chaotix
4. BSmith
5. Robbiecon
6. Memnon
7. Arjos
8.
9. Ishmael
10. The King
11. Atheotes
12.classical heroreplaced by johnhughtom
13.
14.
15. Zaccino
Dead:
Montmorency: town, cop. Lynched day 1.
Nightbringer: town, jailkeeper. Killed night 1.
Visorslash: mafia, informant. Lynched day 2.
Last edited by Jarema; 07-09-2012 at 22:03.
Fancy that John was right ^^
Fancy that, John is gonna die...
Unless a clever townie has figured out a protection ability they can use on me.
Ugh, I still have no clue, just the number...
Still imo Visor got bussed today and I have my few suspects...
At the beginning of day, two bodies were found.
Day 3 begins.
Living:
1. DaveShack
2. Edse
3. Chaotix
4. BSmith
5. Robbiecon
6. Memnon
7. Arjos
8.
9. Ishmael
10.
11.
12.classical heroreplaced by johnhughtom
13.
14.
15. Zaccino
Dead:
Montmorency: town, cop. Lynched day 1.
Nightbringer: town, jailkeeper. Killed night 1.
Visorslash: mafia, informant. Lynched day 2.
The King: town, curious guy. Killed night 2
Atheotes: town, doctor. Killed night 2
Last edited by Jarema; 07-11-2012 at 07:54.
Any results for me?
I am the Monkey. I receive a result that some random person is innocent.
My two innocents returned are Memnon and edse.
I will provisionally Vote: DaveShack, as I need to vote to prevent being WOG'd. If john gets a result, I'll follow that.
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