How do campaigns turn out to be complete disasters without the loser foreseeing it ahead of time? How did Romney followers swear that Obama reaching over 330 electoral votes was impossible let alone even winning 270? How did Scott Walker utterly destroy the Democrats recall when Democrats proclaimed that the momentum and the public was on their side?
Nate Silver has some answers on the delusional numbers political campaigns tell themselves, with emphasis on the Romney campaigns internal polls they based their strategies off of.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...y-be-to-blame/
The key point for future GOP candidates?
campaigns would be wise not to have their pollsters serve as public spokesmen or spin doctors for the campaign. Campaigns have other personnel who specialize in those tasks.
The role of the pollster should be just the opposite of this, in fact: to provide a reality check such that the campaign does not begin to believe its own spin.
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