"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
I'll take the bet against.
6 or more in 24 throws is still like 86% chance. I want a share in your profits, so I'll also bet 20 with you and hedge my chances with 2 gold against.![]()
I withdraw my bet.![]()
For 16 it's only 45%, so come back, Zack, we play fair here.
You're assuming random, but 2 people are betting on it...
So, just to ensure I've got it right:
edse is betting 20 gold that at least six Rocks are shown.
Al Sipsclar is betting the same.
Al Sipsclar is also hedging by betting 2 gold that less than six Rocks are shown.
So, assuming no further betting on this issue, if we have 6+ rocks then edse is up 2 and Al Sips is down 2.
And if we have >6 rocks then edse is down 20 and Al Sips is up 20.
If someone else was to get in on the bet then edse's share would not move but Al Sips would receive less than 20 if we had >6 rocks shown (-edit- but he'd also be down 20 from losing the other side of his hedge)
Correct?
Told you this would be ad hoc
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
replace ">6" with "<6", then yeah.
and I'll receive part of my 20 proportional to my 2
Last edited by Al Sipsclar; 02-24-2016 at 01:11.
It is better to conquer yourself than to win a thousand battles. Then, the victory is yours. It cannot be taken from you, not by angels or by demons, heaven or hell.
The mind boggles... I probably should know more about how this betting thing actually works before throwing myself into it.
Can I bet with skewed odds?
i.e. I'll take 10 if fewer than 6 rocks are shown, but give away 5 if 6 or more show?
Yes, but you have to get someone to agree to those stakes.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
There are 42 gold currently wagered. If you bet 5 against 6+ rocks showing up, the pot will become 47 gold, and if <6 rocks are thrown, you and I will split it according to our wagers, 5:2. That is you get 34 gold, and I get 13 gold. If 6 or more are thrown, you lose your 5 gold bet.
I'd like to wager 10 gold that fresh-faced rookie Myrddraal will defeat Old Man Sigurd (aka The Grey Bridesmaid) in the D1 match up.
Any takers?
Last edited by Winston Hughes; 02-24-2016 at 18:34.
I'll take that winston. 10 gold on sigurd.
That gold's as good as mine.
I'll side with Winston and bet 10 on Myrddraal.
I think starting with next round people could say that they'll match all bets or something to that effect in order to get around this.
-edit- Alternatively, I could look up "how to be a bookie" once I'm able to do so on a computer where I won't get fired for adding it to my search history.
Last edited by GeneralHankerchief; 02-24-2016 at 20:15.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
I assumed any offered bet on an outcome would need to be met with a bet from somebody else on the opposing outcome.
Thus, Zack and I have already set our stakes against one another, and Al needs someone else to step up and bet against his 10 on Myrddraal for his wager to be activated, with GH needing only to act as bank (and referee in case of dispute).
One thing we can reasonably conclude from all this: gambling is not one of GeneralHankerchief's vices.
Anyway, waiting on @Visorslash, @atheotes, and @El Barto.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
I might be overthinking. Maybe it would be easier if I split it into two categories:
- General bets, where bettors only have to say how much they're wagering that a certain outcome will happen, and then they get what they get out of it depending on how many people are involved. Bets that don't get taken obviously go back to the initial person regardless of the outcome.
- Specific side bets between two people of course.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Maybe GH can introduce prop bets (e.g. something like edse's bet, x number of draws this round, y number of upsets, that sort of thing) that everyone can bet on, creating a prize pool that gets distributed out to the winners.
This sounds like a good compromise.
I'm still waiting for someone to take my bet for 20 gold on a total of more than 6 rocks thrown in the first round. It's a somewhat fair bet I can assure you! The probability for more than 6 rocks in only the initial throws is only 0,17.
In the meantime I can pool 10 gold on sigurd winning on day 1
I be throwin' a proposition bet, if it be allowed, on there bein' three ties in th' first roun' at least. Ten gold pieces on that, arrr.
Zackbeard, what say ye?
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
@El Barto, I'll take you up if you'll accept my two gold pieces to your ten.
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