Brexit Thread

[Gilrandir]

Giving up Gibraltar is a small price to pay, nothing is going to really change except cutting of a human traffic route, 'refugees' are Spain's problem if it's Spanish territory, pure win if you look at it pragmatically

You sound like the neolibs more and more. "(Whatever) is a small price to pay for upholding these theories, as I'm not the one who has to pay it."

Next thing Fragony is gonna say is "Scotland/Northern Ireland is a small price for being free from Brussels".

[Fragony]

Next thing Fragony is gonna say is "Scotland/Northern Ireland is a small price for being free from Brussels".

No I will just say that your country already has been sacrificed, you can't say I didn't tell you that it would be

[Kagemusha]

Of course tbe Dutch are going to feel the consquences, as a net-payer we are going to cough up even more to pay their despot-paradise. You have gained a lot be happy, a brexit just about reduces tarrifs from countries outside the EU with more than a little bit, the UK can make associations as they see fit, and neglect all imposed rules of that atrocious cancer that is the EU. I am so glad the UK did what it did, the Dutch love the Brits but will always obey others and I hope that stops from now, especially if the Brexit turns out to be a very very good decision. The EU is not a free market youknow, it's a protected one. It makes no sense for the UK to be part of it, half or so of your trade is gone because of tarrifs out of the Brussel-zone

So leaving a bigger market and becoming a smaller will guarantee one better trade terms? Sorry but world does not work that way. Larger the market, better terms it can get.

[Fragony]

So leaving a bigger market and becoming a smaller will guarantee one better trade terms? Sorry but world does not work that way. Larger the market, better terms it can get.

What bigger market would that be, the economies that are struggling with the EU printing more fictional money or the areas that are actually growing? The UK was so right.

[Pannonian]

So leaving a bigger market and becoming a smaller will guarantee one better trade terms? Sorry but world does not work that way. Larger the market, better terms it can get.

Funny thing is, May's argument for Scotland to remain within the Union could, word for word, be the argument for the UK to remain within the EU.

[Gilrandir]

No I will just say that your country already has been sacrificed, you can't say I didn't tell you that it would be

You mean Ukraine was sacrificed to Russia so that the UK could exit the EU?

[Fragony]

You mean Ukraine was sacrificed to Russia so that the UK could exit the EU?

No I'am saying that you are fucked, I can go alll Pillatus on what's commingfor you very soon

[Gilrandir]

No I'am saying that you are fucked, I can go alll Pillatus on what's commingfor you very soon

Enlighten me, oh Vanga the Omniscient on the future that awaits me.

[Kagemusha]

What bigger market would that be, the economies that are struggling with the EU printing more fictional money or the areas that are actually growing? The UK was so right.

The worlds largest single market with over 500 million consumers. Exports worth of 2415 Bn € and imports worth 2188 Bn €. That one.

[Fragony]

Enlighten me, oh Vanga the Omniscient on the future that awaits me.

wtf do you expect will happen, whatever Russia does it can get away with because it was always a gentlemens-agreement to never get too close to them and the EU fucked that up, and you are the one who's going to pay, why do you think the majority of the Dutch were so against an association-agreement, no not because we care about you, much more selfish than that, never wake bears when they are having a nap

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

But with a much smaller RN.

And a potential to start WWIII.

So let's hope the Spanish aren't that stupid.

This was before or after 23.06.2017? Dont you understand. You had a platform in EU where this kind of issues were easy to settle, but you decided to walk out from it, because of various reasons. You are now reaping what you sow and this is just a one issue. I surely hope your reasoning for Brexit will offer you more then what you are about to loose.

What is there to settle? We negotiated, we held a referendum, the people voted to be British but still the Spanish want the rock, and they have been goading us every summer since. The right thing for the EU to do would be to tell the Spanish that it has been British for over three centuries and to drop it. In fact, they have not, instead their negotiating position "acknowledges" the Spanish claim, as though it was somehow legitimate.

So, from my perspective the EU has been no help in settling this over the last decade - the other EU countries essentially support the Spanish position and continue to do so. If anything we gain a benefit from leaving the EU as we are no longer required to tow a line which gives lip service to a Spanish claim.

So you want to fight the Spanish over it?

No, I fear they will be stupid enough to fight us over it. If this becomes a bigger issue than it already is it may well have a military aspect as we'll have to rush HMS Queen Elizabeth to service before we leave the EU and accelerate uptake of the F35B in order to have a credible carrier force to deter such stupidity.

At the very least I imagine the RN is asking if it needs to keep a Destroyer Squadron in the Med ping-ponging between Cyprus and the Rock.

Giving up Gibraltar is a small price to pay, nothing is going to really change except cutting of a human traffic route, 'refugees' are Spain's problem if it's Spanish territory, pure win if you look at it pragmatically

The abandonment of 30,000 British citizens and the gateway to the Med is in no way acceptable, from a humanitarian, economic, or military perspective. If the Spanish are bellicose enough to demand the Rock, are they bellicose enough to close the Straight to British shipping?

At least the Spanish planes won't be at the limit of their range, and their Aircraft Carrier unsinkable...

Sorry, care to explain? I honestly don't understand the reference, or rather it could mean one of three things at least.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Lord Howard implies we would go to war over Gibraltar:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-says-michael/

"35 years ago this week another woman Prime Minister sent a task force half way across the World to defend the freedom of another small group of British people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely certain our current Prime Minister will show the same resolve in standing by the people of Gibraltar."

Another quote from said article:

Fabian Picardo told the BBC this morning that sharing sovereignty with Spain would be "absolutely awful" and comparable to "living in somebody else’s land."

Fabian Picardo is Gibraltar's Chief Minister.

[Husar]

So Gibraltar is basically proof of what happens when you don't exterminate an immigrant enclave fast enough?

Apparently it was taken in an opportune moment when there was internal turmoil, much like a peninsula that was formerly part of Ukraine (and also partially an immigrant enclave)...

[Gilrandir]

wtf do you expect will happen, whatever Russia does it can get away with because it was always a gentlemens-agreement to never get too close to them and the EU fucked that up, and you are the one who's going to pay, why do you think the majority of the Dutch were so against an association-agreement, no not because we care about you, much more selfish than that, never wake bears when they are having a nap

AFAIK, this "gentlemen's agreement" was concluded with NATO, not the EU. And for the last 2 years Russia hasn't made much progress in "doing something" to Ukraine. Your ideas of causes and consequences are beyond any criticism.

And if we adopt your viewpoint, it is the Neyherlands that are fucked up: the Nexit party has lost the elections and your are doomed to stay within the EU under the yoke of Brussels, so it is for you that the prospects aren't that bright.

[Pannonian]

So Gibraltar is basically proof of what happens when you don't exterminate an immigrant enclave fast enough?

Apparently it was taken in an opportune moment when there was internal turmoil, much like a peninsula that was formerly part of Ukraine (and also partially an immigrant enclave)...

To be fair, although I don't expect anyone to be fair to Britain, Spain has a couple of enclaves on the African continent as well. I expect Britain to be attacked for the unfairness of holding territory in Iberia, while Spain's holdings in North Africa will be ignored.

[Kagemusha]

Lord Howard implies we would go to war over Gibraltar:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-says-michael/



Another quote from said article:



Fabian Picardo is Gibraltar's Chief Minister.

So in less then half a year there is talk about war in Western Europe. Im sure Putin is laughing himself senseless and Trump is ready to offer Britain the deal of their lives as vassal of US. This is exactly why EU should remain and the only redeeming factor is that anyone in Europe is idiot enough to actually start a war over few rocks at Gibraltar. Sometimes the amount of human stupidity is just too much to handle.

[Husar]

To be fair, although I don't expect anyone to be fair to Britain, Spain has a couple of enclaves on the African continent as well. I expect Britain to be attacked for the unfairness of holding territory in Iberia, while Spain's holdings in North Africa will be ignored.

They're all example of nations caring only about their own interests and conquest and oppression of others.
It's a terrible world, nothing we can do but wait for the flashes to end it all.

What we can clearly see in any case is how the whole idea of "friendly separation" is a pipe dream the leave camp lied about whereas we remainers warned that separation is usually the path to conflict and potentially even war. And here we are, before the separation is even done, talking about uparmament and even the use of nukes over a conflict caused by the separation...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...=tmgoff_fb_tmg

[Brenus]

Sorry, care to explain? I honestly don't understand the reference, or rather it could mean one of three things at least.

A joke referring to the distance between Argentina and the Falklands. The Argentine Air Forces were at the limit of fuel for their planes (Mirages and Daggers) and had limited Aerospace Exocet Missiles. So they could not be as efficient as possible, as their possibility of tactics were limited by the time they could be on the war theater.
And the aircraft carrier being Spain (not the Veinti Cinco de Mayo that was never engaged https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARA_Ve..._de_Mayo_(V-2) ) it is by definition unsinkable...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So Gibraltar is basically proof of what happens when you don't exterminate an immigrant enclave fast enough?

Apparently it was taken in an opportune moment when there was internal turmoil, much like a peninsula that was formerly part of Ukraine (and also partially an immigrant enclave)...

So this is fair, then?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mats-say-spain

The EU will not back down in its support for Spain’s demands when it comes to the Rock of Gibraltar in Brexit negotiations, senior European diplomats have said. The European council, whose members comprise the EU member states, shocked Downing Street by saying the British overseas territory could be included in a trade deal between London and Brussels only with Spain’s agreement.

A little background from Le Gruniard:

Ever since the Anglo-Dutch fleet captured Gibraltar 313 years ago during the war of Spanish succession, the small territory at the southern tip of Spain has been a bone of contention between Madrid and London. Although British sovereignty was formalised by the treaty of Utrecht in 1713 and Gibraltar became a British colony in 1830, Spain has always bristled at the idea of UK ownership. Two referendums - in 1967 and 2002 - have shown that the overwhelming majority of residents wish Gibraltar to remain British. Despite accusations of double standards given its two enclaves in north Africa, Spain has refused to relinquish its claim.

Your comparison with Ukraine is helpful, though, because it highlight why Lord Howard said what he did. The message seems to be lost on the Left but it is the same sentiment as with the Falklands viz:

"We will not abandon our citizens to you and we will not allow you to subjugate them by force."

This is not "sabre rattling", it is simply a grim statement of fact, we will not let our people be subjugated by force.

Despite this both Spain and Argentina inflict hardship upon enclaves that have been British longer than living memory primarily out of spite.

War with Spain is virtually impossible though because of the NATO treaty, if Spain were to invade Gibraltar the rest of NATO, including the EU would be honour-bound to oppose them.

So in less then half a year there is talk about war in Western Europe. Im sure Putin is laughing himself senseless and Trump is ready to offer Britain the deal of their lives as vassal of US. This is exactly why EU should remain and the only redeeming factor is that anyone in Europe is idiot enough to actually start a war over few rocks at Gibraltar. Sometimes the amount of human stupidity is just too much to handle.

That's one way to look at it, the other is to recognise this canker has been festering since 2002 and the EU just papered over it. That the EU now sides with Spain against the Gibraltarns after a referendum where 99% rejected joint sovereignty is, in my view, just another argument in favour of leaving.

[Pannonian]

That's one way to look at it, the other is to recognise this canker has been festering since 2002 and the EU just papered over it. That the EU now sides with Spain against the Gibraltarns after a referendum where 99% rejected joint sovereignty is, in my view, just another argument in favour of leaving.

You'd argue that anything in the world is yet another argument in favour of leaving. One of your clinching arguments was that, with the separation from the EU, Westminster no longer has that excuse for failing. Ie. that leaving is nothing to do with the EU, but entirely because Westminster has failed. If you find that your browser stopped working after the latest update, you'd say that it's just yet more reason why we need to leave the EU, as we need to eliminate that possibility from the reasons why your browser may have failed.

[Husar]

So this is fair, then?

Of course it is fair. Britain voted to leave the EU to take care of its own national interests. There were people on this forum saying it is better to have competing nations and the nation state is the ultimate soandso. Now that Britain is not in a bloc with Spain anymore, Spain is thinking about acting in its own self interest against a now-competing nation. The EU only acts in its own self interest when it supports the claims of a member over those of a leaving or non-member. British people claimed it's some holy form of behavior to act in national self-interest and are now crying about others doing the same? You've been warned and you said you wanted, preferred this. Now deal with it.

The whole hypocrisy thing is nonexistant and inconsequential in a world of self-interest and competition.
The argument about how long it has been British is even more true for Ceuta and Melilla, they have been Spanish for even longer. The thing is what changed ownership 300 years ago can do so again, that's the way of the world you voted for. And in whose favor was the referendum in 1713 anyway?

[Montmorency]

There's not much scope to fight anyway. Does Spain bomb out the entire peninsula? Do ships engage and get sunk around the strait, completely closing the Mediterranean to the world? Does Britain drop bombs and missiles just at the peninsula, or on targets throughout the mainland? What happens with Morocco?

If the world could in fact tolerate this war, then Spain would be in the position to win, i.e. achieve its goal of dominating Gibraltar. There would be no way to expel Spanish forces without obliterating the entire piece of land.

Funny to discuss, but not a real conflict for the time being.

[Fragony]

AFAIK, this "gentlemen's agreement" was concluded with NATO, not the EU. And for the last 2 years Russia hasn't made much progress in "doing something" to Ukraine. Your ideas of causes and consequences are beyond any criticism.

And if we adopt your viewpoint, it is the Neyherlands that are fucked up: the Nexit party has lost the elections and your are doomed to stay within the EU under the yoke of Brussels, so it is for you that the prospects aren't that bright.

You are wrong if you thinkt the nexit-camp lost, they are purists, and got a lot. They should. I will never support them but kudos

[Kagemusha]

So summa summarum. With aid of both Britain and Spain, the trade treaty between Britain and EU fall`s short. British pro Brexiters take that as evidence that Brexit was the righteous thing to do. British economy take`s a major hit. What next?

Britain with her problematic economical future take`s an adamant stand at NATO together with Trumpist US that all members have to commit to 2% spending of GDP, which Germany with some other countries reject, with arguments like their larger spending to overseas development aid, dividing the NATO, could such be possible next?

[Pannonian]

You are wrong if you thinkt the nexit-camp lost, they are purists, and got a lot. They should. I will never support them but kudos

So an ardent Dutch supporter of Brexit doesn't actually support Nexit, yet feels able to lecture Brits that their future will be worthwhile, whatever territories, prosperity or other things they'll have to give up. The hypocrisy stinks.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

You'd argue that anything in the world is yet another argument in favour of leaving. One of your clinching arguments was that, with the separation from the EU, Westminster no longer has that excuse for failing. Ie. that leaving is nothing to do with the EU, but entirely because Westminster has failed. If you find that your browser stopped working after the latest update, you'd say that it's just yet more reason why we need to leave the EU, as we need to eliminate that possibility from the reasons why your browser may have failed.

Oh, so you found that convincing, then?

What I actually said was that having an over-arching authority that people feel is unaccountable is bad for democracy, and that with that removed we would, at least, be masters of our own destiny.

Of course it is fair. Britain voted to leave the EU to take care of its own national interests. There were people on this forum saying it is better to have competing nations and the nation state is the ultimate soandso. Now that Britain is not in a bloc with Spain anymore, Spain is thinking about acting in its own self interest against a now-competing nation. The EU only acts in its own self interest when it supports the claims of a member over those of a leaving or non-member. British people claimed it's some holy form of behavior to act in national self-interest and are now crying about others doing the same? You've been warned and you said you wanted, preferred this. Now deal with it.

The whole hypocrisy thing is nonexistant and inconsequential in a world of self-interest and competition.
The argument about how long it has been British is even more true for Ceuta and Melilla, they have been Spanish for even longer. The thing is what changed ownership 300 years ago can do so again, that's the way of the world you voted for. And in whose favor was the referendum in 1713 anyway?

So the 30,000 Gibraltarns should be used as a scapegoat when the talks fail?

If we agreed to stay in the single market Gibraltar should be excluded unless we hand over at least partial control to the Spanish?

I never argued for mercenary self-interest, others have argued that but I have been very clear that, for me, this was about the fact that I don't want to be part of an unaccountable, un-democratic Bloc.

Anyway, the EU is supposed to be about peace, prosperity and co-operation - internally and externally. You posted a video to that effect just a little while ago, did you not?

[Pannonian]

Oh, so you found that convincing, then?

What I actually said was that having an over-arching authority that people feel is unaccountable is bad for democracy, and that with that removed we would, at least, be masters of our own destiny.

Living in England, I don't feel like a master of my own destiny. At least not until the centre left successor to the Labour party runs for election. It's going to be a Tory government, most likely tending towards its right wing to placate the UKIP wing, until such an eventuality. I expect this to last at least another decade, possibly multiple, especially if Scotland splits off.

And BTW, self determination is a liberal (hence leftist) argument. Rightist arguments revolve around states.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So summa summarum. With aid of both Britain and Spain, the trade treaty between Britain and EU fall`s short. British pro Brexiters take that as evidence that Brexit was the righteous thing to do. British economy take`s a major hit. What next?

Britain with her problematic economical future take`s an adamant stand at NATO together with Trumpist US that all members have to commit to 2% spending of GDP, which Germany with some other countries reject, with arguments like their larger spending to overseas development aid, dividing the NATO, could such be possible next?

We shall see what actually happens.

I will be surprised if the EU actually allows Spain to choke Gibraltar by the throat. One would hope basic humanity would prevent that. On the other hand, the EU continues to throttle Greece.

[Pannonian]

We shall see what actually happens.

I will be surprised if the EU actually allows Spain to choke Gibraltar by the throat. One would hope basic humanity would prevent that. On the other hand, the EU continues to throttle Greece.

OTOH, any agreement needs to be ratified by all members. Spain doesn't need to choke Gibraltar. All they need to do is not ratify any agreement, and there is no UK-EU agreement (as has been the case with Canada and Belgium for quite some time). When the spectre of Turkish membership was raised by kippers, this basic mechanic should have been pointed out as our safeguard. The mechanic still exists, but it's likely to work against us as we're now the ones outside.

[Husar]

I never argued for mercenary self-interest, others have argued that but I have been very clear that, for me, this was about the fact that I don't want to be part of an unaccountable, un-democratic Bloc.

That's the thing, you can't have one without the other it seems and apparently you weighed your options and made your choice together with your fellow countrymen. The result is visible now.

Anyway, the EU is supposed to be about peace, prosperity and co-operation - internally and externally. You posted a video to that effect just a little while ago, did you not?

That video was full of useless rhetoric, or did you think I posted that unaware of my blaming Greyblades for using useless rhetoric just a few days earlier when the made a similarly useless statement? It was accompanied by a sneaking smiley for a reason. It would be nice if the EU could be about these things, but Brexit clearly showed the EU that it needs to be more competitive to keep its members since compassionate actions such as taking care of refugees triggered the Brexit and made other countries angry as well. The people of this world want the world to be this way and so it is, I just adapt to the will of the people and punch them in the face for my self-interest.

Maybe after the next World War they will want peace again and say this can't ever happen again until they get bored 70 years later and want more "self-interest" again.