French Revolution Mafia [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

I didn't really want to get into this with an "analyze ATPG" session, but you put it out there when you could have just played silly buggers like me. Without getting too spammy, can you please justify your top three and bottom four reads?

I could, but I don't think it would be very persuasive to people. I can say it in general terms, to aid people in understanding that there was thought put into it.

It's largely experience and instinct, based on paper thin first impressions, understanding of what I'd do if scum in this setup, what most players would do, and my analysis of the people inside my own faction who I don't want to name. I think I have a 70/15/5/5/5/0 read on my group based on their reactions to my opening posts there. The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment, if they were random, and they're not. The mafia's votes aren't random and even though most of ours are semi-random, there will also be biases regarding not necessarily piling votes on one's own faction members this early. Scum would likely be voting outside their own faction here, on a townie. I'd even put the odds of them voting for each other as higher than voting inside their own faction on a townie. That goes against the strategy of manipulating one's seeming faction-mates, it also draws attention and is therefore probably counterproductive.

I haven't caught anyone, I just haven't found some people to be showing revolutionary colors yet. I'm working from a town-down perspective and including some gut suspicions into the bottom 4.

[Zack]

There's no reason why 90% of the thread should be anything else.

I also thought that after I posted what I did.

Zack, he did effectively place you as null. You're about as close to the middle of that list as you can get.

I'm green. Green is not null.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Oh and nobody ever thinks I'm acting like I do as town when I act the way I do as town, no one ever thinks I believe my own gut.

I could only remind people (ineffectively as always) that I frequently go out on a way limb as early as possible in the game to get reads out.

Gonna cite my strong opposition to the wagons on the MTGS crossover game on day one that no one believed were authentic but were, and my strong opposition to the current suspects in the hydra game, both games I was lynched day one.

I know these patterns go against your instincts but my instincts are all backwards from yours.

[Zack]

I could, but I don't think it would be very persuasive to people. I can say it in general terms, to aid people in understanding that there was thought put into it.

It's largely experience and instinct, based on paper thin first impressions, understanding of what I'd do if scum in this setup, what most players would do, and my analysis of the people inside my own faction who I don't want to name. I think I have a 70/15/5/5/5/0 read on my group based on their reactions to my opening posts there. The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment, if they were random, and they're not. The mafia's votes aren't random and even though most of ours are semi-random, there will also be biases regarding not necessarily piling votes on one's own faction members this early. Scum would likely be voting outside their own faction here, on a townie. I'd even put the odds of them voting for each other as higher than voting inside their own faction on a townie. That goes against the strategy of manipulating one's seeming faction-mates, it also draws attention and is therefore probably counterproductive.

I haven't caught anyone, I just haven't found some people to be showing revolutionary colors yet. I'm working from a town-down perspective and including some gut suspicions into the bottom 4.

Doing that kind of wagon "analysis" presupposing the votes are on townies by sheer probability is faulty logic.

Also for as much as people like to talk about building a town core on day 1, I've found it much easier to find a wolf than to build a village list that isn't just rand.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You do you, Zack.

[Zack]

(wanted to edit to say) building the town core comes later, not on d1 imo

[Renata]

Atheotes is green and hasn't been here yet.



Took me a while to notice that.

I'm still going to take brazen advantage of being ATPG's and hence everybody's top town read, because I deserve good things like getting away with murder.

unvote: Jabbz
vote: Lewwyn

[Zack]

You do you, Zack.

By probability any single person is likely a villager, so it follows that you should never vote anyone.

[Montmorency]

I'm green. Green is not null.

I think I speak for Pizza when I say, sure it is.

Pizza, I notice a certain bias in the lower half of the list,regarding player styles, activity levels, and forum histories. And then there's Barto. What's up with that?

I think Atheotes is green because he's in Pizza's faction.

[Zack]

I think I speak for Pizza when I say, sure it is.

Pizza, I notice a certain bias in the lower half of the list,regarding player styles, activities, and forum histories. And then there's Barto. What's up with that?

I think Atheotes is green because he's in Pizza's faction.

How about you speak for Montmorency?

[Askthepizzaguy]

By probability any single person is likely a villager, so it follows that you should never vote anyone.

You'd almost have a point if I operated on probabilities alone but I don't, and the nature of the game forces us to attempt to lynch the scums as they win by default if we don't try.

[Renata]

(wanted to edit to say) building the town core comes later, not on d1 imo

Depends on the game, to be honest. Sometimes the villagers make themselves obvious. Sometimes the wolves do.

[Zack]

You'd almost have a point if I operated on probabilities alone but I don't

...

The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment

[Zack]

If you want to be nitpicky and focus on the "alone" part, whatever. My point is that it shouldn't be something you consider at all because it's meaningless.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Key word is alone. We're back to not reading my posts but commenting on them again, a thing that resulted in us butting heads every single time it's happened.

[Montmorency]

How about you speak for Montmorency?

I speak for the People. And they find you wanting.

Unvote; Vote: Zack

twirls wig

[Zack]

Key word is alone. We're back to not reading my posts but commenting on them again, a thing that resulted in us butting heads every single time it's happened.

called it

I'VE FALLEN INTO YOUR CAREFULLY LAID PEDANTIC TRAP

[Askthepizzaguy]

Or you just can't find anything better to do than go "oy, Pizza has reads, that's impossibru" even though every time I'm town I create reads even on people who aren't bleeding here yet.

[Renata]

I speak for the People. And they find you wanting.

Unvote; Vote: Zack

twirls wig

unvote: Lewwyn
vote: Montmorency

[Zack]

If you're trying to shame me because I'm not factoring in RNG or making reads on people who literally haven't shown up, .

[Askthepizzaguy]

Just pointing out that your reasoning about me ignores who I am.

[Renata]

I have this feeling people are expecting me to buckle down and scum hunt properly sooner or later.

[Zack]

Just pointing out that your reasoning about me ignores who I am.

I don't care. It's bad reasoning, you shouldn't use it, and it bugs me when people pretend like it's not silliness.

I'm not convinced that "who you are" includes

1. making reads based on "wagons" 100 posts into the game being probabilistically villagers
2. making reads on people who aren't here

I don't remember it at least. And sorry if I don't have a perfect memory of every subtlety of your play, but I've been in a small handful of games with you in the past few years out of well over a hundred games.

[Montmorency]

Pizza, what don't you like about Jabbz compared to BSmith and NAC (all of them being 2-wagons)?

[atheotes]

hey guys! i have been pondering how to play this game and came to the conclusion that it is best to play it as vanilla mafia. (till i get a town read on all my team mates that is! )
200 posts is not as bad as i expected. so should be able to catch up soon, provided there are not many WoTs (pizza, looking at you ).
Anything interesting to discuss in the meanwhile?

[Montmorency]

Yeah, Pizza likes you because you're in his faction. Comments?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Final tally before I go to bed tonight. Accurate as of post 206.

Renata: 4 | Manasi (78), Snerk (89), ATPG (116), Jabbz (143)
Manasi: 3 | Lewwyn (30), NotACop (112), Arakhor (115)
BSmith: 2 | Fenn (131), Al Sipsclar (136)
NotACop: 2 | autolycus (86), seireikhaan (117)
seireikhaan: 1 | Dp101 (134)
Zack: 1 | Montmorency (196)
Al Sipsclar: 1 | BSmith (54)
Csargo: 1 | Kagemusha (63)
Monstrdude: 1 | Choxorn (140)
Jabbz: 1 | Zack (145)
atheotes: 1 | El Barto (146)
Sooh: 1 | Monstrdude (151)
Montmorency: 1 | Renata (199)

Round ends:

[Jabbz]

The mafia's votes aren't random and even though most of ours are semi-random, there will also be biases regarding not necessarily piling votes on one's own faction members this early.

I have trouble agreeing with this. When I play as scum my early day one is no different from any other game. Maybe others play different, but given towns propensity for mislynching on day one, scum rarely need to intercede much, except perhaps towards then end. Even if it came to "piling on" this early, why not, very rarely are people held accountable for the first few votes of the day, as its mostly testing the waters.

[atheotes]

They love me. That's how they show their affection.

Vote: Renata
hey there, my honorary fellow citizen!

[atheotes]

Interesting post from Pizza.

There's no reason why 90% of the thread should be anything else.

can you elaborate on the 10%?