Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

The way I see things Monte, is that you and I and dp are townies.

I can see universes where any of the others are guilty.

But, if any of csargo or dp are guilty, they will not be lynched in final 3/4.

And Xiahou always gets lynched, and either you or me dies tonight, Monte. So, I want to be thoroughly exhaustive.

You're absolutely sure, betting the game, that it's not csargo?

Are you calling me "Monte" to impress your seriousness upon me?

Let me ruminate for a few minutes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

time is ticking, so where I'm at is I'm eating dinner, and then putting to bed any thoughts on csargo or dp before the flip.

I tend to agree the decision on tomorrow needs to be made today. People get tinfoily tomorrow.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Are you calling me "Monte" to impress your seriousness upon me?

Let me ruminate for a few minutes.

I am saying this is the call we can't take back.

We've had all game to try various scenarios and then the next day go the opposite way.

If it's dp or csargo, this is the last round either of us could reasonably determine that and make it happen.

I don't think it's dp, but I don't think it's xiahou either.

I know we're lynching xiahou. The question is, does it have to be today?

[Montmorency]

I am saying this is the call we can't take back.

We've had all game to try various scenarios and then the next day go the opposite way.

If it's dp or csargo, this is the last round either of us could reasonably determine that and make it happen.

I don't think it's dp, but I don't think it's xiahou either.

I know we're lynching xiahou. The question is, does it have to be today?

Is this saying, if you had to lynch Xiahou it would be better to lynch him after Cuth?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Is this saying, if you had to lynch Xiahou it would be better to lynch him after Cuth?

I don't even know what I'm saying anymore.

Like, the purpose of my previous several posts is to shake my brain and everyone's brain free of assumptions.

How we vote tomorrow is super predictable, and if we are wrong, this is the only day we can really examine it properly.

By tomorrow, the tinfoils cloud judgment.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The struggle is real for me if it's Xiahou or dp, either one.

I never get there in time. The only reason why it's Xiahou tomorrow is because he always lynches instead of dp, right? It's not even because I think he's scum, it's because if I choose between Xia and dp I choose dp to live.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The struggle for you, if it's csargo, could be equally daunting.

All I ask is that we think about it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So the murders were meant to avoid hitting doctor protection, yes?

Even with that restriction, why are the people who are alive now alive?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why is dp alive instead of fredwood, why is monty and csargo both alive when you were in a lot of people's towns, monty?

Even if Kagemusha was lock town, why did he have to go instead of someone else? Why choose those kills?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why does Xiahou kill those people and lose the game?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Who did the dead people want to lynch, did we check?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Like, pretend it's Xiahou.

Okay, I'm alive because I'm defending him, but it's not enough now is it? He also kept alive a bunch of people who are fine to kill him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

rip my dinner.

[Montmorency]

Csargo started the day right away, alongside GH, Zack, Pizza, Winston, and me. He had a number of D1 interactions with Zack and others that could be seen as distancing, or slips. However, his vote on Logic shortly before EOD could be seen as decisive. Or it could be seen as bussing. That means Zack was telling the truth when he said Logic was bussed - in a way. That could be reverse-psychology ("Zack lied!") to misdirect away from Csargo.

Cuth came in shortly after Logic came under threat, poking at DP. They had a conversation, then Zack started hounding Cuth over alleged DP shade. Soon after, Logic arrived to sheep Zack on this accusation. But then he voted Kage. Then Zack seems nullish on Cuth, calls in GH, and GH makes a few reads and votes Cuth. GH makes his infamous Aladdin exhortation that Kage vote Cuth. Kage follows. Pizza and others defend Cuth, time passes, and we hear no more about him from the scum. They move on to Barto. Then Cuth returns to challenge all this stuff, and to townread Zack. So this is all also interpretable as distancing. (In the middle of Cuth's return, Xiahou arrives to vote Zack incidentally). When Cuth still has two votes on him (GH and Kage), Kage asks Csargo what he thinks of Cuth. Csargo sees it as just typical Cuth, not worth pursuing. As a result, Kage switches onto Logic and soon after, GH quasi-rands into voting Manasi. Cuth is not mentioned again for the rest of the day (other than to be moderately scum-read ("but improving") by GH. He only posts again near EOD to shade Monty-Zack and a "discredit-y" post by Logic. He never votes, and ends as the only non-voter of the day.

Csargo's level of engagement and nature of content was consistent after D1. He did post less, but it was proportional; almost everyone was posting less, especially after 3 scum had flipped.

Cuth dropped away almost entirely, whether it was a strategy, or anti-strategy, or just his feeling on the game and RL during that time.

In the end, I have Csargo's QT presence, but I don't have the same for Cuth. On the face of things, both Csargo and Cuth acted consistent with being on a scum-team with Logic/Zack/GH. Maybe if I had no relationship with Csargo, or even if we were lovers w/o a QT, I would suggest Csargo should be lynched today, and Cuth/Xiahou resolved only after. But seeing Csargo in private puts an amount of his D1 activity in a much better light, along with independently towny thoughts, so this is what I have to consider.

I have to vote Cuth over Csargo. If you think it works out better, I could be brought to vote Cuth over Xiahou today.

But I just don't see how I vote Csargo at this point.

You should have vigged Csargo when you had the shot, then dragged out Zack for all the spew.

[Askthepizzaguy]

No, even if Csargo were a wolf, having you around helped my analysis a lot.

[Askthepizzaguy]

In case it's dp?

What do you see there? Is that even possible.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't even like putting this tinfoil on.

It rests on my head very uncomfortably.

And it looks very silly.

[Montmorency]

In case it's dp?

What do you see there? Is that even possible.

DP interacted with most people a lot D1, but I don't really want to reread D1 post by post again. If you're looking for apparent distancing or PIS, eventually you can find it.

The only singly scummy feature of his play has been the dip in activity since D2. But he explained that as not feeling impelled to participate while someone else was doing almost all the steering, and successfully. Most people dipped in activity, or started the game with low activity and never found their footing.

Scum DP would make his activity some truly sick-nasty power wolfing. Given all the off-site games he's been participating in, I wouldn't be surprised if he has more experience under his belt after a year than I do after 6 - but that's nothing to play on.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I should make a tinfoil hat, and take a picture of myself with it on, because lol this game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

DP interacted with most people a lot D1, but I don't really want to reread D1 post by post again. If you're looking for apparent distancing or PIS, eventually you can find it.

The only singly scummy feature of his play has been the dip in activity since D2. But he explained that as not feeling impelled to participate while someone else was doing almost all the steering, and successfully. Most people dipped in activity, or started the game with low activity and never found their footing.

Scum DP would make his activity some truly sick-nasty power wolfing. Given all the off-site games he's been participating in, I wouldn't be surprised if he has more experience under his belt after a year than I do after 6 - but that's nothing to play on.

Plus, I just tend to believe his self-meta about his scum game.

I feel like his emotions are real.

Which leaves me with 3 suspects, Csargo, Cuth, and Xiahou.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If we are not lynching Csargo today then it's like, we're never going to.

Since you're opposed, that's gg csargo.

That leaves the Xiahou and Cuth poe. Otherwise, I don't have the votes to lynch Csargo.

So. On with the POE.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I put the tinfoil hat on. So, if the tinfoil was correct, that's as close as we ever got.

[Cuthillius]

For whatever it's worth:

@Cuthilius

Would you be satisfied betting on a coin flip if the alternative was facing DP & Pizza?

I think this breaks along differences in basic assumptions.

except it's not really betting on a coin flip, if i were a wolf that'd depend on me being able to persuade pizza/at that point i'd probably gun harder for one of you i'd imagine to get that or something

i think shooting to give f4 only really makes sense if the wolf is not me

if it's a lover, they have to

if it's dp or pizza, they feel like they can easily win no matter where the votes go just by the way sentiments go

so i'd probably do dp and pizza? phrasing

but

i don't know on what level i'd even be operating if i was a wolf surviving until this point in the game

[Askthepizzaguy]

Me unvoting and then voting Xiahou here feels like a betrayal.

My gut is all wrong about this even though I have a poe of two lynchable people.

unvote

This is what I'm going to do instead.

I won't split the town vote. If I'm wrong on Xiahou, then I won't contribute to a possible absentee-based vote tally tie.

If you guys independently decide it is someone other than Xiahou, the lower vote count means it's easier to switch to anyone.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'd be lying if I said I was sure it was anyone at this point.

POE and hope I guess.

[Cuthillius]

i

really really don't know how to feel about this

[Cuthillius]

i think it comes down to at this point in the game

if any of these players, excepting xiahou let's say, just did a fantastic job of looking like a villager

the game's pretty much theirs

and

it's bad to go against poe, and there's not really enough of a reason to

so

basically just

we're here now and... we'll see what happens

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Xiahou (2): Montmorency, Cuthillius,

Not voting (4): Xiahou, Csargo, Dp101, Pizza,

With 6 players there are 4 to hammer.


EOD4:

[Montmorency]

Why does Xiahou kill those people and lose the game?

Who did the dead people want to lynch, did we check?

N1

Winston:

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.

Suspicious of Zack in Zack-Dp. Also still suspicious of Choxorn.

Pizza: Lock town were Pizza, Winston, DP, Kage, Slaan. POE was GH, Zack, Manasi, Chox, Barto, Csargo,


N2

Kage: Was a leader on GH's case N1, and put Cuth and Zack in his POE. Disagreed with Slaan that Choxorn was a priority lynch. N2, he suggested Cuth as next on the POE. Manasi, Choxorn, and Xiahou were in the default lynch bucket and needed to speak up. Zack/Cuth more likely than Zack/Manasi (1498 going hard after Cuth). Kage made several references to not surviving the night over N2.

N1, he said:

Last point if i die tonight. I think something that should be looked at more carefully would be the Bussing of DP101 and not take anything by face value. Was that bussing dangerous to anyone and what did it achieve?

So it's likely that the Mafia did not have smearing or linking DP101 on their mind, at that time at least.

Pizza: Lock town were Pizza, DP, Kage, Slaan, Fred, Monty (and Reinoe and Xiahou on Zack flip). POE was Zack, Manasi, Chox, Barto,

*Zack was still alive N2. Why does he kill, or what does he plan with his partner in killing, Kage instead of Pizza?


N3

Reinoe: N1, had thought Barto and Chox scummy; Winston and Kage town, Zack mafia. Not sure if he suspected Fred, but it may have been borderline. DP as town on D2. N2 wanted to lynch Zack over Choxorn, and didn't feel strongly about Manasi scum. No activity D3. N3 said ought to be in Barto/Choxorn, Choxorn over Barto, though the situation was starting to get shaky. Cuth slightly spewed by Zack. Slaan said, "Oh shit reinoe lock town", and Pizza affirmed.

Pizza: Lock town were same (?). POE was Barto, Choxorn, Csargo (?).


N4

Fred: N1 had suspected Barto, Reinoe, mixed feelings on DP, Zack, GH, and Choxorn. N2 had POE as one of Chox/Manasi, but more likely two of Cuth/Zack/Barto. However, Manasi scummier than Zack individually. Agreed with Kage's suggestion that Cuth needed to be on the agenda next (for D3). Reinoe and Zack not teamed. No activity D3. N3, and debated Slaan keeping him (fred) in his POE. D4, agreed with Pizza's POE below, had residual suspicion of Cuth (?).

Pizza: Lock town were Pizza, DP, Choxorn, Fred. POE was Csargo, Slaan, Monty.


N5

Choxorn: Nearly vanished after N1 (when he shaded Winston and Reinoe). After GH lynch, agreed that Manasi-Zack solved the game. With the D4 claim, Choxorn was highest lock townie as a PR with multiple affidavits.

Pizza: Lock town were Pizza, Choxorn, DP, with lovers likely mechanically clear. POE was Cuth-Xiahou.



The only NK who wasn't considered lock town at the time was reinoe, who was nearly there - or maybe because he became more-or-less lock with Zack's flip. Targets who were NKed suspected someone who would be lynched the following day (Reino, Fred), or were instrumental in lynching scum (Winston, Kage). Reinoe dying could reflect poorly on Fred. Winston, Reinoe and Fred dying could also be setting up Choxorn. Killing Kage and Fred should be long-term beneficial to Cuth. Pizza spent most of the post-Logic game rooting for Cuth and Xiahou, so they wouldn't have much incentive to kill him (though in general there is incentive to kill a Pizzaguy, and Zack definitely could have used Pizza dead)

In conclusion, you could make a fair case for Cuth choosing these kills - but Xiahou, well, no one was really talking about him so it's hard to formulate what his plan may have been... It's not inconsistent witj Xiahou-scum at least, I don't think.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I didn't look, but that seems to match my general impression.

Xiahou no show means he might no show in final 3 or final 4, so.