Red Flood

[Rodion Romanovich]

@AggonyDuck: Military access rather than making them join would solve that problem IMO.

For actually taking Gib, here's my first rough draft for a plan:
- phase one: build railway tracks directed towards Gibraltar a bit inland before moving any troops through Spain. At this phase of the plan the military access must still be a secret
- phase two: send one or more railway guns through Spain together with the main force of infantry and tanks, and land planes at Spanish airfields. Next the railway tracks built will come into use...
- phase three: artillery bombard Gibraltar with the railguns and/or other heavy artillery that can be hidden far inland and difficult for the British to find, spot and hit back with ship or ground shells. If Gibraltar really is such a high rock that dominates the landscape and is difficult to run uphill towards in an attack, it should be easy to provide decent spotting for covering the rock (and ships beyond it) in smoke shells. It doesn't need to be fully covered, just enough to annoy and cause confusion and limit their sight. Using an artillery "carpet bombing" of smoke shells would fulfil this goal even with inaccurate long-distance heavy artillery.
- phase four: when the rock is blinded enough, send in heavy bombers. IIRC, AA guns of the time weren't radar controlled so the smoke should blind them quite effectively and the bombers shouldn't be in too much trouble. If the bombers could drop magnetic mines over the ships too it would be even better.
- phase five: when the bombers have done their work, and the heavy artillery keeps the smoke screen intact, lighter high-precision artillery moves forward and starts a more exact bombardment when the enemy ship turrets are too blinded to fire back accurately. Remember that if the harbor is well covered in smoke, the ships will have very great difficulties navigating out of the harbor, so we can expect limited returned fire from the ships in harbor for at least an hour. And if our bombers and artillery could also score some explosive shell hits on the enemy ships that would be a big bonus. In this phase, we also move in Stuka divebombers for higher-precision bombing of the ships in the harbor, and fortifications on the rock. During this phase, the smoke cover will be improved by the lighter artillery and so should make Stuka attacks more feasible (they fly lower than bombers and are otherwise easier to hit with AA, IIRC).
- phase six: when the higher-precision light artillery and Stukas have bombarded the ships and the rock for a while, and the artillery has created a more exact and accurate smoke screen than the heavy artillery could, the infantry starts moving in. The rock is blinded by the smoke and the infantry won't show up on radars. The infantry carries with it poison gas shells, handgrenades, flamethrowers and hollow charges to deal with the bunkers of the fort. They should also have SMGs, a possibly one or two MG34s (in the light MG role with bipod) could be put down in the fort corridors if needed).
- phase seven: the infantry can call in support from a limited force of tanks if it becomes necessary (against enemy tanks - if any - in the area)

[AggonyDuck]

I still believe that Military access and joining the war is the same thing for Britain.

[Rodion Romanovich]

Well, Britain isn't in a position to damage Spain much besides by naval actions, but the Spanish are already suffering from the blockades as it is. Also, if the Spanish keep claiming their neutrality, Britain will look bad if they start attacking Spain (which they can't do that much anyway). Spain could even win points by claiming they allowed military access to Gibraltar to break the blockade against Spanish civilians, not to specifically help the Germans. Finally, remember that a victory in Gibraltar would be a huge blow for the British and would strengthen those of the Americans that are against joining the war.

[Keba]

I still believe that Military access and joining the war is the same thing for Britain.

For Britain, it might be, but for the world it would not be such. Remember, we are already at war with Britain. Franco caves and grants military access through Spanish territory ... Britain, even if it considers that Spain has joined the war, would be in a tough spot internationally ... if they declare war on Spain, it would cause massive problems for the British diplomatically.

Secondly, there is little they can do about it, once Gibraltar is under siege ... an amphibious invasion would require a lot of forces, and even if succesfull, the terrain in Spain is exceptionally difficult, making the advance slow down to a crawl (it would be even worse than the Battle of the Bulge).

[Kagemusha]

If you guys looked up the link to German plan Felix to take Gibraltar.Those couple British battalions couldnt hold it up against force the size the plan suggests.About transportation through neutral country.Sweden actually allowed Germans to use her railroad network to transport German troops to Finland and it didnt have any effect on her relations towards the Allies.
We have to remeber that Britain is at the moment almost on her knees and the last thing they need at the moment is another enemy from Spain.
Taking Gibraltar wouldnt be a furious hit against Britains economy,but Strategically if the British cant move their fleet to reinforce either the Mediterranian or home fleet,it will give us a great Strategig edge against their most leathel weapon at the moment,the Royal Navy.

[Rodion Romanovich]

Maps of Gibraltar:
http://worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/europe/gi.htm
http://www.dotcom.gi/map/wholemap.htm
Photo of Gibraltar (at top of page):
http://www.dotcom.gi/map/

@Kagemusha: Operation Felix indeed seems a lot like my plan with smoke shells and overwhelming artillery and air bombardment forming the crucial part of the attack. But I also like the additional ideas proposed in Operation Felix - the harassing submarines and the disguised Brandenburgers entering the harbor in small boats trying to look like sailors from sunk British ships. Pretty fun to see I came up with such a similar plan

[IrishArmenian]

If the Luftwaffe can weark havoc on the British ships in the Suez canal, we may be able to hold that and cut off all enemy naval action in the Mediteranean after our large assualt on Gibraltar that should go something like:
Mass bombardment, by the Luftawaffe and Navy ,it will keep the British unaware to what we will do and keep their heads down. The FJ will hit the ground after hours of shelling, and regardless of how large the enemy bunkers are, the British will have many dead/wounded. We drop the FJ on top and bring in a few tanks, transported by Sea, just to make sure everything goes our way. I doubt that the British can hold off against unexpected armour, no doubt the famed German Tanks. From there, we get ground infantry to Gibraltar, and have them dig in. The FJ will be taken out so we can fill in their gaps of people and plan to use them in a different area. We'll need Canaris' help to block the Suez Canal and to Shell Gibraltar.

[DemonArchangel]

If the Luftwaffe can weark havoc on the British ships in the Suez canal, we may be able to hold that and cut off all enemy naval action in the Mediteranean after our large assualt on Gibraltar that should go something like:
Mass bombardment, by the Luftawaffe and Navy ,it will keep the British unaware to what we will do and keep their heads down. The FJ will hit the ground after hours of shelling, and regardless of how large the enemy bunkers are, the British will have many dead/wounded. We drop the FJ on top and bring in a few tanks, transported by Sea, just to make sure everything goes our way. I doubt that the British can hold off against unexpected armour, no doubt the famed German Tanks. From there, we get ground infantry to Gibraltar, and have them dig in. The FJ will be taken out so we can fill in their gaps of people and plan to use them in a different area. We'll need Canaris' help to block the Suez Canal and to Shell Gibraltar.

The British fleet is at Alexandria. In any case, we don't exactly know where the bunkers are, they're dug in very deep and they're well sheltered against bombing, there's basically no room for tanks, and in any case, the Germans used maneuver and coordination to offset the fact that their tanks actually weren't that good, and since you can't really break the bunkers with gunfire, they'll have to be cleared manually, which would result in disproportionately high casualties.

Better leave this to the Heer, and use the FSJ for Malta.

[IrishArmenian]

The British fleet is at Alexandria. In any case, we don't exactly know where the bunkers are, they're dug in very deep and they're well sheltered against bombing, there's basically no room for tanks, and in any case, the Germans used maneuver and coordination to offset the fact that their tanks actually weren't that good, and since you can't really break the bunkers with gunfire, they'll have to be cleared manually, which would result in disproportionately high casualties.

Better leave this to the Heer, and use the FSJ for Malta.

I was unaware. New plan! FJ takes Malta (JUMP WITH YOUR GUNS!!!) and we let those sad little gruts get butchered by the Britts. And they say we could easily win the war... We do not (not cannot) have Naval superiority, so it looks like we will have to do almost everything by air. This is why I consider myself a better at tactics than strategy. I will go in depth later. Thanks for the help DA.

[Franconicus]

Italy: 2 (Demon Archangel, Aggony Duck)
Foreign Office: 3 (Kagemusha, Irish Armenian, Legio)
Spain: 1 (Keba)
Admirality. 1 (KK)

Therefore we go to the Foreign Office next?

[King Kurt]

I think we are at risk of getting too involved in detail and are missing the broader strategic picture. Our hero is currently reviewing the whole of the scene in the Med, not planning a specific attack. He needs to review all potential targets and rate their strategic importance and potential impact on the English. More importantly he needs to assess our allies - both their military ability and their willingness - or otherwise - to allow our forces to act in co-operation with their forces or use their bases. Working out which weapons to put in the containers for the para assault on Malta is of little use if El Duce in a fit of arragance will not let us use his airfields. The situation with Spain and soon Vichy France is even more difficult.

So let us carefully and quietly gather information, gather a full diplomatic picture then identify the key strategic targets for furthuring our cause and harming the English. Our focus should be on the middle east and oil, not the hot spots we know from our knowledge of WW2. We are creating a new history here, not tinkering with the existing.So patience my friends, the detailed planning comes later.

[King Kurt]

Italy: 2 (Demon Archangel, Aggony Duck)
Foreign Office: 3 (Kagemusha, Irish Armenian, Legio)
Spain: 1 (Keba)
Admirality. 1 (KK)

Therefore we go to the Foreign Office next?

Seems like a good idea - but couldn't he pop in the Admiralty on the way!!!

[Rodion Romanovich]

yes, Foreign Office and Admiralty can both give valuable information and since it's close by it has short travel distances and doesn't waste our valuable time. I think

[Rodion Romanovich]

I think we are at risk of getting too involved in detail and are missing the broader strategic picture. Our hero is currently reviewing the whole of the scene in the Med, not planning a specific attack. He needs to review all potential targets and rate their strategic importance and potential impact on the English. More importantly he needs to assess our allies - both their military ability and their willingness - or otherwise - to allow our forces to act in co-operation with their forces or use their bases. Working out which weapons to put in the containers for the para assault on Malta is of little use if El Duce in a fit of arragance will not let us use his airfields. The situation with Spain and soon Vichy France is even more difficult.

So let us carefully and quietly gather information, gather a full diplomatic picture then identify the key strategic targets for furthuring our cause and harming the English. Our focus should be on the middle east and oil, not the hot spots we know from our knowledge of WW2. We are creating a new history here, not tinkering with the existing.So patience my friends, the detailed planning comes later.

I agree, but I also tend to think that at least some rough attempt at a plan for how to approach a certain target is useful for approximating how much troops it will occupy for how long, which logistical requirements are needed, which diplomatical actions are needed, - and most importantly, measuring the feasibility of success of the specific operation. I think it has become clear from the reasoning above that both Malta and Gibraltar could be taken with a minimum of casualties and with extreme strategical effect, IF the diplomatical requirements are fulfilled. It has also become clear that taking the Suez channel probably requires a successful full-scale advance into Egypt first. I don't think it was a waste of time to analyze these things before proceeding to the Foreign Office. Now we know that Spain and Italy are probably the most interesting subjects.

One thing I think we should however analyze a bit more first is the feasibility of successfully invading the Middle East. I doubt the Middle east can be taken without first destroying most of the British Mediterranean fleet, and conquering key areas linking up own territory and enemy territory. I think it might be in order to discuss with the Italians how to divide the possible targets that can be conquered in the eastern Mediterranean. Ideally, the Italians should accept German claims to the entire Middle east all the way south to the Suez channel, plus German control over eastern Greece, Crete and Cyprus while the Italians get everything west of the Suez, western Greece, Albania and Yugoslavia.

[King Kurt]

The apparent importance of Gib and Malta are partially due to our benefit of hindsight. Malta was vital as a base to attack convoys from Italy to north Africa and Gib was vital as a base to support malta. Currently nothing is happening in North Africa, so the importance of Gib and Malta are diminished. Of course malta is well placed in mid Med but so is Sicily.

With regards to the Middle east, there are only realy 2 ways to get there - via Asia Minor or Egypt/Sinai. The Asia minor route means getting across Turkey - I can't see us having a sea landing in say Syria - so let us look at those diplomatic issues. The Egypt route means working with the Italians - who will be very reluctant to get involved until they need our help badly due to Il Duce's pride. Perhaps we need to wait for an Italian fall before we make detailed plans.

We must not forget our own strategic needs - let us ensure the Romanian oil fields are secure and keep any enemy airfields as far away as possible. A bit of Balkan expansion would not go amiss.

[DemonArchangel]

*Snip*

No, there will be a North African campaign anyway, because it's simply easier to get to the oilfields that way, and because the Italians already have resources there, and they need to protect Libya. Also, setting up an air base and a naval station on Malta and capturing Gibraltar essentially bottles up the British fleet at Alexandria, preventing them from getting to home waters to defend the British Home Islands, not to mention the fact that British convoys would be forced to move around Africa, thus stretching their supply lines and making it easier for our submarines to pick off their merchant ships.

About Romania: Good idea, let's see what we can do in that respect.

Moving on, if we're going to take a trip to the Admirality, try to see if they can provide some naval support etc. for Malta and the rest of the Med. and try to see if they can capture enough of the French Fleet to supplement the Italian navy.

[Rodion Romanovich]

I think it's correct that the importance of Malta probably isn't well known at this time, but I think the importance of Gibraltar is quite clear already at this time. The importance of Romanian oilfields is also obviously important, as any way into the Middle east (before destroying the British Med fleet or getting the Italians to cooperate) would be tricky at best at this time, and Romania has the most closely located oilfields.

[Kagemusha]

I wouldnt worry about Romania.SU has been really agressive towards Romania.And its basicly in our pocket already.We have to get Romania tied up on us with politics,not by military means. If Soviet Union attacks Eastern Europe,it will atleast pretty much force US to revaluate its attitude towards us and Soviet Union.If not.SU will provide us the Oil we need with Romania.

[IrishArmenian]

Yes, but he could chat with the Admiral on the way there, if he was said "Admiral, I do not have a car, could your driver give me a ride?" But yes, foreign offices!

[Keba]

Well, look at it like this ... even though, at that time, Malta isn't considered important it would make an excellent demonstration of the fearsome Fallschimjaeger corps of the Third Reich ... it is poorly defended, allied airbases are within a short distance, and it is in a very good position to serve as a staging ground for the Afrika Korps, should they be formed. Plus, it will get us on Hitler's good side, the guy likes victories, the more terrifying to the enemy, the better.

The overland route to the Middle East would be troublesome ... while I have no doubt that Istanbul could fall to the German army, the problem is the Bosphorus ... it is terribly easily defendable, plus, the terrain does not suit our greatest advantage, the Panzer divisions ... North Africa on the other hand is straight as a board, has enough space to manouver, and is already held by a nation we are at war with.

[IrishArmenian]

I think the farthest place that the German army could manuever and fite well is Istanbul. After that the land becomes to different and varied. They would try to move through Anatolia and get slottered by resitance, and keep marching into the Caucases where the same thing would happen with the added disadvantage of the high altitude.
Keba is right, strong-arm tiny Malta with the FJ and Hitler will crap his pants with glee.
Let's face it, we are flexible, but no army since Rome has ever been able to dominate the Mediteranean. Most of that was technology and discipline. We have to be the best in both those categories and it doesn't look like we are. Plus, the Romans recruited Oksillaries (spelling?) who knew the land and were great fiters and our conquered lands hate us. Everywhere there is land that could slow down and possibly kill our men.
Militart Access with Spain is not a good idea. As soon as we try to move through the Pyhrenees, the Basques will blow troop transport trains/trucks and supply trains/trucks up. They do not like anyone on their land without a damm good reason, and "Attacking the English" is not a good one. They are another culture who has been guerilla fiting for their whole existence.
The Catalons might also be a thorn in our side. Need we bring up they are the descendants of people who had the Almogavars- an elite Javelin throwing soldier that was equally deadly with his cleaver like knife and by themselves held off many Turkish assaults (until the Byzantine emperor no longer paid them, and they packed up and left) also used by the HRE I think. Those soldiers were famed for their ambushing tactics. Now weapons may grow useless, but tactics never do.

[Franconicus]

What kind of information do you want from Admiralty?

[King Kurt]

Besides the obvious technical assesment, we would need a view on the possible tactics and the professional ability of all the navies present.

On Malta - do not assume it will be a walk-over - I would estimate the garrison in Malta to be stronger than that in Crete. As an aside I read a book many years ago which included a section on crete. It was about a squadron of Swordfish who were based at Malmeme airfield. They could not understand why the germans kept air reconing the airfield to find out its defences as they hid the airfield's defence - 12 rifles!!! - in a hut.

[DemonArchangel]

Besides the obvious technical assesment, we would need a view on the possible tactics and the professional ability of all the navies present.

On Malta - do not assume it will be a walk-over - I would estimate the garrison in Malta to be stronger than that in Crete. As an aside I read a book many years ago which included a section on crete. It was about a squadron of Swordfish who were based at Malmeme airfield. They could not understand why the germans kept air reconing the airfield to find out its defences as they hid the airfield's defence - 12 rifles!!! - in a hut.

Although it wouldn't be a walkover, it would sure as heck be easier than dropping on Gibraltar and prematurely reenacting Pavlov's House or Iwo Jima. And I rather doubt that the defenses at Malta are stronger than those at Crete. Even if this was the case, it wouldn't be that bad, and at this point, the Italian fleet is still intact enough to support us.

Also, Franc, I want to know what Kurt wants to know, and I also want to know our chances of capturing the French fleet.

[Franconicus]

Although it wouldn't be a walkover, it would sure as heck be easier than dropping on Gibraltar and prematurely reenacting Pavlov's House or Iwo Jima. And I rather doubt that the defenses at Malta are stronger than those at Crete.

Maybe you should note that Crete is still Greece. There are no Commonwealth troops on the island.

Also, Franc, I want to know what Kurt wants to know, and I also want to know our chances of capturing the French fleet.

This is certainly part of the armistice negotiations. I do not think that France will stand longer than a week. Then you should know about this

By the way: Do you want the ships or would you prefer the French to have them? Better think twice about it!

[King Kurt]

By the way: Do you want the ships or would you prefer the French to have them? Better think twice about it!

Now this raises an issue - if we pursue getting the ships transfered to us, then they will up and away before we can do anything about them and they will probably end up with the English. If we look for them to decomission or lay up in port, they will be a problem to the English as they will be constantly worried that they might come to us in due course. There is an arguement that we should seek to get them mothballed as opposed to handed to us as strategically, we will benefit more in the long run. Perhaps we could plan a coup de main with the FJ to capture the main elements of the fleet - could be risky, but the rewards are great. All food for thought!!

[Franconicus]

Chapter 5 – In the Waiting Loop
Berlin, June 18th-19th, 1940

The Abwehr answered the request so quickly that Ramcke decides to try his luck once more and to stop by at the Auswärtiges Amt. However, his luck has left him. For hours he tries to find someone willing to help him. At last he strands at an officer who promises him to forward his request to the right place. Someone would contact him later.

Ramcke leaves the building a bit frustrated. German bureaucracy is thoroughly, but often very slow.

To save the day Ramcke decides to drive to the OKM (Supreme Command of the Navy) at the Tirpitzufer. However, he has to find out that all departments are engaged with the preparation of the campaign against Britain. Admiral Dönitz is not at Berlin. Ramcke finally manages it to get a phone connection to him. Ramcke explains him his new mission. Dönitz tells Ramcke that the Battle of the Atlantic will soon enter a new phase. However, he promises to write an essay about the view of the Kriegsmarine as soon as possible.

As nothing else remains to be done he goes back to the RLM, to talk with his new assistant and to move into his new office and peruses the latest news:

On the Western Front... The German advance continues inexorably. The 7th Panzer Division takes Cherbourg, 5th Panzer Division occupies Brest. Among other towns captured are Le Mans, Briare, Le Creusot, Belfort, Dijon and Colmar.
Over Germany... The RAF bombs Hamburg and Bremen.
From London... General de Gaulle, as yet comparatively unknown to the majority of his countrymen, makes a radio address urging the French to fight on; saying that only a battle and not the whole war has been lost.

In the evening he finally receives a call from the Auswärtiges Amt. He is told that Secretary of State Ernst Freiherr von Weizsäcker will receive him on July 20th to discuss the situation of the abutters.

Therefore Ramcke has to spend another day in his office. At least he receives the report of Dönitz. It is short and contains only a few basics:
The Kriegsmarine has no ships in the Mediterranean Sea besides a couple of merchant ships. Due to the fact that both Suez and Gibraltar are controlled by the British there is no option to send surface ships. In principle, submarines can pass the isthmus of Gibraltar. However, the Mediterranean is not the ideal playground for submarines and all German submarines are engaged in the Atlantic Ocean.

However, the Italian Navy is strong. It has more submarines than any other country. Currently there are negotiations about missions of Italian submarines in the Atlantic. Furthermore Italy has six modern or modernized battleships. Therefore the Italian fleet is able to take on to the English navy. A handicap is the lack of radar on the ships. However, this can be compensated by air reconnaissance. The Italian air force is numerous and has some modern models.

The Kriegsmarine could support the operations at the Mediterranean Theatre with some flanking maneuvers:

1. Temporarily submarines could operate westwards of Gibraltar to hinder British fleet movements.
2. The FW200 could do some reconnaissance missions in this area. Additionally, it could do mining missions against the Suez as soon as appropriate air ports are available.
3. The Kriegsmarine could do a ‘red herring’ to divert the Gibraltar battleship force into the Atlantic. These kinds of operations, however, have a long lead time.

Although the Kriegsmarine cannot do much to support any Mediterranean operation it has big interests here. The seizure of Gibraltar would supply the Kriegsmarine with superb basis for the surface and submarine ships. Additionally the control of Northwestern Africa including Dakar is aspiring.

However, possible reactions of the enemy should be taken into account, especially the seizure of the Atlantic Islands, the Canary Islands and the Azores and Madeira. This has to be avoided without fail.

On the other end of the Ocean the seizure of Suez should result in the occupation of Aden. Then the Axis navies and air forces could operate in the Indian Ocean and even threaten India itself.

Ramcke has expected more, especially more technical details. On the other side he has to be thankful that Dönitz replied so fast. Now Ramcke has to wait until tomorrow. Will the Auswärtiges Amt give him more information for his mission?

[IrishArmenian]

1. Have the subs harass the British fleet. That would not be a huge problem to the British, but a large annoyance that could make their commanders impatient and do something stupid.

[AggonyDuck]

No, there will be a North African campaign anyway, because it's simply easier to get to the oilfields that way, and because the Italians already have resources there, and they need to protect Libya. Also, setting up an air base and a naval station on Malta and capturing Gibraltar essentially bottles up the British fleet at Alexandria, preventing them from getting to home waters to defend the British Home Islands, not to mention the fact that British convoys would be forced to move around Africa, thus stretching their supply lines and making it easier for our submarines to pick off their merchant ships.

Actually only a fraction of the convoys to Egypt went through Gibraltar and these were usually high priority shipments that were escorted rather heavily. Usually the Brits avoided sending supplies through the Straits of Sicily due to the proximity to Italian air and naval forces. Just take a look at the losses suffered by the convoys to Malta to understand how dangerous the convoy route past Sicily is.

Gibraltar itself doesn't have much influence over the campaign fought in the eastern mediterranean, but the loss of Gibraltar makes a allied intervention in the western mediterranean an impossibility (no Operation Torch) and Gibraltar is an excellent base for us for operations at the Atlantic Ocean.

But as I've said before said invading Gibraltar means a Spanish war entry, whether we intend it or not. Also the Admiralty is hinting that the Brits have some sort of plans prepared for seizing the Canaries if Gibraltar is lost.

About Malta; Italians failed to take it early on due to the fact that it was viewed unimportant, not due to it's meager defences.

[Franconicus]

I am currently writing the next chapter, about the Foreign Office. It will be more comprehensive, I hope.

Until then, are you familiar with the notion: `non-belligerent`?