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Thread: So what do you think Iraq is all about?

  1. #31
    Standing Up For Rationality Senior Member Ronin's Avatar
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    Default Re: So what do you think Iraq is all about?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dâriûsh View Post
    Quite. I'm sure the reasons in Darfur are sound. As are they in Chad, Thailand, Columbia, Palestine, Georgia...
    that´s quite a lofty group of "enlightened" places you´re using for comparison there....
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  2. #32
    Second-hand chariot salesman Senior Member macsen rufus's Avatar
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    Default Re: So what do you think Iraq is all about?

    Primarily about oil. Everything in the Middle East has been about oil for the past half a century, including US support for Israel.

    It's not a simple "let's make some money" or "let's take over some wells" sort of equation, though. There is a grander geopolitical strategy, which is very much about supporting "friendly" regimes in a region that is largely unfriendly to western, and especially American, interests. Saddam always was a douche-bag, for a long while he was a friendly douchebag. His douchebaggery wasn't an issue until he stopped being friendly. The biggest bunch of douchebags out there are probably the al-Saud family, and they are sitting very precariously on a tinderkeg of a country. I don't see how much longer we'll be talking abouth the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the People's Islamic Revolutionary Republic of Arabia may not be far away. Losing the Shah in Iran (incidentally another douchebag) scared the West in a big way. For the same to happen in the country that has been the swing producer for the intervening period would spell curtains for the western economies.

    I mentioned Israel - it is in US interests for Israel to survive, as it diverts the anger of the "Arab street" from their own, more immediate enemies - the very friendly regimes that oppress them. So long as Arabs are wasting energy railing against 'the Zionists', and by extension America, they are not toppling their own governments. And it is the Saudi regime that is most crucial here - they can play along at the "anti-Zionist" game for the benefit of home consumption, but know full well that they can't DO anything. Without Israel the lid will blow across the Arab world. Saudi Arabia is insturmental in keeping oil dollar-denominated. America doesn't necessarily need to physically control the wells, but it absolutely needs to control the PRICE. Only a swing producer can do that. Until the 60s-70s the US itself was the swing producer. Once Saudi Arabia took over that role, the Saudi regime had to be kept onside - that means guaranteeing the "Arab Street" won't topple them. A lot of the "oil shocks" and ructions throughout the 70s were down to re-establishing that economic system. For a major oil exporter with no other eggs in its economic basket, a stable oil market is crucial, hence the Saudi interest in cooperating with the west. Another pay-off is the military technology to enable control of their fractious population.

    Iraq has a border with Saudi Arabia, where a significant proportion of US deployment is based (two divisions, IIRC). Iraq is within striking distance of Hormuz, and Iran. The Great Game in Central Asia is hotting up, and Russia is resurgent. Iraq is well placed in all of these arenas. Despite all the rhetoric about installig a "democratic" regime in Iraq, that will fall by the wayside as soon as a workable "friendly" regime comes about. One that will allow a huge military presence to remain without looking like an "occupying force".

    Like it or not, oil is a finite resource, and the western economies are as deeply addicted as any crack addict. The model of constant economic growth is predicated on a finite resource. Sooner or later (I personally hold to the view that it will be sooner) there will be a crunch. At which point, whoever has the most influence in the Middle east will have a strong position in the following game of "last man standing". There are other plays for crunch time, but the Neo-Con agenda is strictly based on the "last man standing" scenario.
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