Rumour Control ie the bailout/nonbailout of the Irish republic

[gaelic cowboy]

No funding applications to EU or IMF - Cowen

The Taoiseach has said Ireland is making no application to Europe or the International Monetary Fund for funding the State.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Taoiseach Brian Cowen has said Ireland is making no application to Europe or the International Monetary Fund for funding the State.
But Mr Cowen said the Government would continue to work with partners to find ways of bringing stability to financial markets.
The Taoiseach said what was needed was 'calm heads and cool consideration' of all the complex issues involved.
Earlier Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern said he expects the four-year budget plan to be published early next week.
Mr Ahern also said that Ireland was in constant contact with the European Commission, but he said the nature of these talks were about the pressure on the euro.
The Minister reiterated that the country was fully funded until the middle of next year.
He said Ireland had not applied to the International Monetary Fund for assistance.
Commissioner Máire Geoghegan-Quinn also said no application has been received from the Irish Government for a bailout.
Head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers Jean-Claude Juncker said the eurozone countries would act quickly if Ireland needed help.
Mr Juncker said: 'We would be ready to respond to this request as soon as possible.
'Ireland has not formulated such a demand ... and we are not supposed to busy ourselves with a theoretical demand.
'The decision rests with the Irish Government. I am not making a public recommendation to Ireland.
'As for the budgetary consolidation, the Irish authorities have the matter in hand.'
The European Commission acknowledged that Ireland has come under pressure to accept a bailout.
However, a spokesman for Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said the pressure was not coming from the European Commission but another player.
European concerns
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Irish banking system's funding problems have deteriorated in recent weeks, which has caused significant concerns in Europe.
Between 27 August and 29 October, Ireland's banks received an additional €20bn in emergency liquidity funding from the Irish Central Bank.
At the same time, Irish financial institutions have also seen support from the European Central Bank jump to about €90bn.
High-level officials held meetings over the weekend regarding the possibility of a rescue fund for Ireland.
It is understood the discussions involved officials from Ireland, Germany, the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank.
It is believed agreement to a bailout would calm the markets after Ireland's cost of borrowing reached more than 9% last week.
The cost of borrowing for Ireland has declined today to 8.1%.
The drop follows a frenzy of media speculation over the weekend that Ireland was being urged to accept financial assistance.
Fine Gael Finance Spokesperson Michael Noonan said he thought there was substance in international media reports that there has been a difficulty in the Irish banks.
'I'm extremely concerned. I think the reports over the weekend are true,' Mr Noonan told the BBC.
'I think there is European intervention under way.
'I think the Irish Government are fighting a rearguard action for appearances purposes, but there's a meeting of the eurozone ministers for finance in Brussels tomorrow afternoon and on the following day there is a meeting of ECOFIN.
'That is the finance ministers of the whole European Union and I believe that things will come to head in the next 24 hours.'

It has finally happened the possibility of bailout for Ireland that I said was only 30% chance in the Irish Budget thread has now jumped to easily 50 or more percent.

The fear in our Eurozone co-members of contagion has frightened them into fearing a complete collapse of the Euro(hyperbole yes but still relevant to the discussion). Ireland has borrowed enough money till summer next year and we have access in a nuclear situation to a sovereign wealth fund ie the national pension fund of about 20/25billion euro.

Fact: Ireland is funded till mid July 2011 and beyond if we grab the pension money.
Fact: Severe spin has been spread about Ireland looking for money from the bailout fund over the weekend in an effort to force an actual bailout.
Fact: Were not buying bonds but others are and there bonds have gone up too.
Fact: The first three facts can only mean this is not about economics and actually about politics.

The government has decided to publish it's 4yr austerity budget next week even though it is not to be voted on till December.(mainly due to German requests it must be said). Ireland needs no money at all but if the high bond prices we are not buying continue for Portugal/Spain insert whoever you care to mention the actual euro will be suffer.

I predict that the Irish government will be pressured into accepting a bailout to stop a larger one of the rest of the PIIGS. The problem for this cozy consensus is the fact that if Ireland is bailed out then the precedent will be set of a funded country of being bailed out and the "Markets" will "Demand" bailout of the rest.

One possibility that our government is exploring is the possibility of a Euro bailout strictly for our sick banks in order to satisfy our Euro partners and the markets. This strikes me as a good idea BUT it may be too much for Germany to bear politically even though this could cause the bigger bailout no one wants.

It is pretty clear now that Angela Merkels (for a domestic audience)coments on scalping bondholders have backfired spectacularly hence the backtracking at the G20 conference but it may be too late now.

The high fiving of bond traders will be sickening to watch no doubt they have large positions in Irish bonds that are in danger of turning to dust if were not bailed out.

below is a blog which is what I figure you should read if you watching this crisis.

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev blog on possile bailout/nonbailout

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev is an academic in Trinity College Dublin

[gaelic cowboy]

Looks like the bailout could/will happen the question now is one of semantics ie of a national bailout or a banking bailout.

The European Central Bank Vice President has said aid would be available for Ireland, whether it was for its banks or the State.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio has said aid would be available for Ireland, whether it was for its banks or the State.
At a news conference in Vienna, Mr Constancio confirmed talks were under way on the issue, but that Ireland has not made any formal request for help.
The Portuguese Central Bank Governor said talks had been going on with other countries too, but that so far there have been no formal requests for aid.
He said that according to the European Financial Stability Facility's rules, loans cannot be made directly to banks.
Instead, the facility lends to governments, who earmark a certain amount of the funding for financial institutions.
Mr Constancio acknowledged that Ireland is financed until the middle of next year, but he said solutions 'have to be pondered' for the banks, which he said are at the centre of Ireland's problems.
EU seeks 'quick' solution
Earlier, the Austrian Central Bank Governor and ECB policymaker, Ewald Nowotny, said he did not expect Ireland's problem to spread to Spain and Portugal, but that the EU wants a 'quick, good' solution to Ireland.
However, a source at the European Financial Stabilisation Facility told RTÉ News the special EU bailout facility could not be used directly to support a country's banks.
However, a segment of any bailout could go to help the banking sector as long as the amount was declared and politically agreed 'up front' as part of a larger package going to support a member state.
The source drew attention to the one-off €110bn Greek rescue package agreed last May. On that occasion €10bn was set aside for the Greek banking sector.
The amount was fully agreed and politically cleared as part of the country programme agreed between Greece, the EU and the International Monetary Fund.
Portuguese, Greek problems
Meanwhile, Portugal's Finance Minister has said his country is at high-risk of needing a bailout due to the danger of contagion from other debt-hit euro nations.
'The risk is high because we are not facing only a national or country problem,' the Financial Times website quoted Fernando Teixeira dos Santos as saying in reference to the possibility that Lisbon will need international financial assistance.
'It is the problems of Greece, Portugal and Ireland. This is not a problem of only this country,' he added.
Earlier, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou warned that the tough stance taken by Germany on banks and bond markets sharing the pain of any eurozone debt default could force some economies towards bankruptcy.
He was speaking as new figures from the EU indicated that Greece's budget deficit is worse than had been thought.
EU and International Monetary Fund officials are in Athens to decide whether Greece should receive a third tranche of a rescue package.
Elsewhere, European Central Bank policy maker Axel Weber said that banks must be allowed to fold and backed the idea of issuing special bonds that would automatically convert to equity in the event of a crisis.
He was speaking at the opening of Euro Finance Week, which is expected to see bankers and policymakers clash over how far to go with new regulation.

The comments by Portugal/Greece are the real meat of this story and they are the thing we should all (in the Eurozone)try to prevent.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

You liberals are all crazy.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Ten quid says you'll have a bailout before the end of the week.


Also, all bond traders, lenders and investors must be hung from the nearest tree. Seriously, why do we let a few cowboys threaten our stability, when they serve little positive purpose besides filling their own coffers? They may have the money to overthrow countries, but we have got the teh tanks. I want them used. Our sovereignity and stability must be protected. Sell it to the public as part of the War on Terror. Call it financial terror or something, feed imagery of rich oil Arabs and Russians attacking our way of life.

Lastly, Ireland for UK province. I want London to buy the island. They can use it to grow potatoes or some such.

[gaelic cowboy]

Ten quid says you'll have a bailout before the end of the week.

Lastly, Ireland for UK province. I want London to buy the island. They can use it to grow potatoes or some such.

I would say we will maybe be bailed out next week.

Ireland is a larger market than China for the UK export sector good luck to them trying to get out of recession then.(apparently 5th in the line of export markets)

[Fragony]

Meow <- Celtic tiger

// eyes Germany and Vikingland *cough* nothern-union

[Furunculus]

Ireland should leave the eurozone.

It is a small economy heavily dependent on the UK/US markets in a way that is not true for club-med.

It relies on its business friendly environment to maintain a prosperous service sector, both of which are under threat from the twin forces of an envious europe (likely to force corporation tax increases) and an overvalued europe (ireland gets the pain without the benefit).

It should go directly to the IMF, exit the euro, devalue its currency, and Britain should provide financial assistance, we are up for £7b anyway.

The result would be a competitive economy with full fiscal sovereignty.

[gaelic cowboy]

Ireland should leave the eurozone.

It is a small economy heavily dependent on the UK/US markets in a way that is not true for club-med.

It relies on its business friendly environment to maintain a prosperous service sector, both of which are under threat from the twin forces of an envious europe (likely to force corporation tax increases) and an overvalued europe (ireland gets the pain without the benefit).

It should go directly to the IMF, exit the euro, devalue its currency, and Britain should provide financial assistance, we are up for £7b anyway.

The result would be a competitive economy with full fiscal sovereignty.

Agreed on every point.

Basically the same credit bubble will just happen again and again because our economy is the only game in town for Franco/Gerrman banks.

[al Roumi]

Lastly, Ireland for UK province. I want London to buy the island. They can use it to grow potatoes or some such.

Nah, grain would be a better crop for Ireland to contribute to the commonwealth.

[tibilicus]

Ireland should leave the eurozone.

It is a small economy heavily dependent on the UK/US markets in a way that is not true for club-med.

It relies on its business friendly environment to maintain a prosperous service sector, both of which are under threat from the twin forces of an envious europe (likely to force corporation tax increases) and an overvalued europe (ireland gets the pain without the benefit).

It should go directly to the IMF, exit the euro, devalue its currency, and Britain should provide financial assistance, we are up for £7b anyway.

The result would be a competitive economy with full fiscal sovereignty.

A lot of sense. It seems Ireland can only lose remaining in the Eurozone.

[gaelic cowboy]

A lot of sense. It seems Ireland can only lose remaining in the Eurozone.

In short what may have made some business sense in 1999 no longer makes sense events have overtaken the political reality of the Euro.

Business in Ireland has managed to increase trade with the Eurozone greatly it's no longer just USA/UK economy for us the real problem is the German Credit Heroin I lay ten quid in Paddy Powers this will happen again if we stay inside.

Therefore once we have the ability I believe the Euro members should just junk the Euro and if they want to after they can go and create a Euro 2.0 if they want without us (and the rest of PIIGS)in it.

[Beskar]

They should create a World Currency, that way, they can stop all this inflating out of debt, and other nonsense. The problem isn't with the Euro, the problem is with the economical mindset.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

They should create a World Currency, that way, they can stop all this inflating out of debt, and other nonsense. The problem isn't with the Euro, the problem is with the economical mindset.

No, the problem is sharing currency and not a treasury, the Romans will tell you that one Denarius is only worth the same accross the whole Empire when you only have one Emperor minting the coins. Ireland's inability to devaule, or do anything else, means that it will go bankrupt and have to be bailed out by other Eurozone countries in the same way that, for example, "The North" has been propted up by "The South" in England for about 30 years. Ireland's only hope of prosperity is either being completely subsumed into a larger more wealthy nation (not going to happen) or being fiscally independant.

(For those not up on ancient money - it was always allowed silver/gold and the silver/gold content reflected the liquidity of the government minting the coins, so rather like today the value of a country's currency reflected its wealth, only more litterally.)

[gaelic cowboy]

They should create a World Currency, that way, they can stop all this inflating out of debt, and other nonsense. The problem isn't with the Euro, the problem is with the economical mindset.

That would be a disaster Beskar some of the largest economies in the world are geared towards lending there own money to other countries in order to get a return on the money. If you linked all the currencies you would end up with Liberia having a bonds apparently as safe as German.

In short as long as our Irish banks and bond traders are addicted to the easy credit available in the Euro (due to an unnatural savings culture in the core) then this mess will happen again.

The avergae age in Ireland is around 35-38 we will need to borrow money in the future to run our economy and it will sow seeds for another bust in about 2030s.

[Beskar]

No, the problem is sharing currency and not a treasury, the Romans will tell you that one Denarius is only worth the same accross the whole Empire when you only have one Emperor minting the coins. Ireland's inability to devaule, or do anything else, means that it will go bankrupt and have to be bailed out by other Eurozone countries in the same way that, for example, "The North" has been propted up by "The South" in England for about 30 years. Ireland's only hope of prosperity is either being completely subsumed into a larger more wealthy nation (not going to happen) or being fiscally independant.)

Ok, so lets have the IMF mint the coins?

Also, it is Ireland's fault for their faulty economics. They should had some intelligence in arranging their country and simply not keep on borrowing needlessly. Same goes for other countries such as the UK and the USA.

That would be a disaster Beskar some of the largest economies in the world are geared towards lending there own money to other countries in order to get a return on the money. If you linked all the currencies you would end up with Liberia having a bonds apparently as safe as German.

In short as long as our Irish banks and bond traders are addicted to the easy credit available in the Euro (due to an unnatural savings culture in the core) then this mess will happen again.

No it won't, if I go to the bank, the interest rate would be determined on factors such as credit history, which could mean that me and you pay different interest rates on the loans. We don't magically have the same because we share the same currency.

As for "unnatural savings culture", Ireland could change its culture and simply start saving like good little boys and girls?

[Furunculus]

As for "unnatural savings culture", Ireland could change its culture and simply start saving like good little boys and girls?

why should they? so they can fit the glorious world government, did we check with the irish first on that one?

[Beskar]

why should they? so they can fit the glorious world government, did we check with the irish first on that one?

They can reap what they sow then, finical and institutional ruin? or is that what they are wanting which is being denied to them.

[Furunculus]

well arguably they could collectively be considered guilty of idiocy, for entering into a political project that was economic suicide, if only they had had a few more sceptics................!

[Beskar]

well arguably they could collectively be considered guilty of idiocy, for entering into a political project that was economic suicide, if only they had had a few more sceptics................!

It wasn't economic suicide, since they benefited from the arrangement. What the problem was, Ireland was the economic liability as they abused the situation, opposed to using it.

End of the day, having different currencies is fundamentally idiotic. I have seen no real arguments for having different currencies, other than people abusing them for an 'advantage'.

[gaelic cowboy]

Also, it is Ireland's fault for their faulty economics. They should had some intelligence in arranging their country and simply not keep on borrowing needlessly. Same goes for other countries such as the UK and the USA.

My country did not borrow any money the stupid banks did thats why our private taxes have collapsed. You could only argue the government should have tried to take the heat out of the property boom but you generally do that with interest rate rises.

No it won't, if I go to the bank, the interest rate would be determined on factors such as credit history, which could mean that me and you pay different interest rates on the loans. We don't magically have the same because we share the same currency.

Wrong Ireland was apparently AAA+ or whatever is the top rate and so were the banks, the bond rate may have been different but the issuer was the ECB therefore it WAS the same as German bonds hence people bought so many.

As for "unnatural savings culture", Ireland could change its culture and simply start saving like good little boys and girls?

You cannot run an economy like Ireland by saving because the economy is know as an OPEN economy we do not try to hoard capital in the such an economy as it is too small. A good example is the idea of say a government scheme to scrap cars it's absolutely useless in an open economy as the money just flows abroad and then it's gone.

The unnatural saving culture I was really referring too is the fact the core actively resists expanding it's service sector to soak up it's own extra capital so it must go somewhere else, so it went on bonds that were at higher price but supposedly just as solid.

[Furunculus]

no, they were stuck within a currency union that fixed their interest rates at a level unsuitable for their economy, and now that bad things have happened they cannot devalue their currency so balance can only be achieved by shedding jobs.

the perils of a fixed exchange rate in a non-optimal currency union.

[gaelic cowboy]

It wasn't economic suicide, since they benefited from the arrangement. What the problem was, Ireland was the economic liability as they abused the situation, opposed to using it.

End of the day, having different currencies is fundamentally idiotic. I have seen no real arguments for having different currencies, other than people abusing them for an 'advantage'.

The Banks abused it to borrow for long term loans at short term rates that is what happened no fancy sub prime no goverment borrowing more than it needs it was Banks.

The ECB as much as admitted today that basically one bank did this to us known as Anglo Irish Bank.

[gaelic cowboy]

They can reap what they sow then, finical and institutional ruin? or is that what they are wanting which is being denied to them.

Eurostat figures disagree with you

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/4-12112010-AP/EN/4-12112010-AP-EN.PDF

Annual comparison
In September 2010 compared with September 2009, production of capital goods grew by 7.5% in the euro area and by 8.7% in the EU27. Intermediate goods increased by 6.8% and 7.5% respectively. Production of energy rose by 1.8% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods gained 1.6% and 2.5% respectively. Durable consumer goods fell by 0.2% in the euro area, but increased by 2.2% in the EU27.
Industrial production rose in all Member States for which data are available, except Greece (-7.6%), Portugal (-2.4%) and Spain (-1.4%). The highest increases were registered in Estonia (+31.1%), Latvia (+19.0%), the Czech Republic (+12.2%), Poland (+12.1%) and Ireland (+10.9%).

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1112/eurozone-business.html

Updated: 12:06, Friday, 12 November 2010 RTE News
Ireland has recorded the biggest month-on-month rise for industrial production across the euro zone, official figures have showed.
While industrial production across the euro zone fell by 0.9%, Ireland bucked the trend, surging 7.9% in September compared to August.
Ireland also showed the fifth highest rise year-on-year from September 2009 to September 2010.
The estimates were released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Basically this nothing to do with the economics and everything to do with politics why else try to force a bailout of a sovereign country that everyone agrees does not need the money.

They are afraid the rest of the PIIGS will go bust before we go back to the bond markets it really is as simple as that, notice how they keep mentioning Portugal in the news pieces they must be coming under pressure cos our government wont take the bailout.

I imagine there trying to engineer a bailout just of the banks to satisfy the ECB this gets the debts paid back and our banks agree to pay back the loan instead of the government. The best course of action is to take a strictly IMF bailout of the banks and avoid any problems with competition rules in the EU by doing so.

Germany does not pay out so there happy, PIIGS bond rates settle as there is backstop money for the AIB, BOI and ANGLO banks and finally our government was going to be introducing a hairshirt budget anyway regardless so who cares what the IMF does with the banks. A bailout from the EFSF will likely not work as the "Markets" will merely demand further bailouts and the Euro will collapse under the strain.

One last point if/when the bailout is agreed it is likely in my view to be created as a backstop and not actually be paid out to our banks at all who will likely just borrow from the international bond markets again just like every other bank in the world. Someone is going to make a killing buying Irish bonds that are actually ALL going to be paid up when there supposed to be paid up due to the safety created by the backstop.

[Furunculus]

how do you feel about adopting the pound?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/da...eady-offer-it/

[gaelic cowboy]

It was basically the currency within living memory of many people here the Punt was take at a one for one rate with the Pound in the early years of the state. It has attractions especially in the agricultural sector it would also force a greater discipline on wages and costs which tend to be high here due to the small size of the market.

Irelands economy has always basically been one of a relatively wealthy UK region, I would not agree with just a currency union but we should track sterling more closely than the Euro. It may/will/is though politically unacceptable to the elite though who run the place as a even a temporary solution, there not interested in saving the country really (FF/Greens)as there majority is just two seats and there are 4 byelections coming up so there finished by next April.

We actually buy British food, clothes, newspaper and we even watch the same telly, I have never believed the theory this somehow makes me more British or less Irish my identity is what I say it is not what I consume in some kind of cultural imperialism bunkum. It is time to get real about our economy the elite sold us the Euro as a way to ensure a stable currency, our memories of having to devalue in 1992 were still colouring talk when we voted on it. For the first 5/6 yrs we did get a stable currency the big companies like Intel, IBM, HP and all the others did not mind at all really but the regulators were creatures of our banking sector they let rip the unsustainable borrowing in our banks.

Anglo Irish Bank pretty has almost caused the destruction of our economy and according to the EU is a matter of survival for the EU/Euro.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo_Irish_Bank

[Louis VI the Fat]

how do you feel about adopting the pound?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/da...eady-offer-it/

I for one already proposed Ireland should return to the status of British backwater again. What were the silly Micks thinking anyway in 1922?

I'm happy this view is shared by a completely serious British former MEP.

[Furunculus]

I for one already proposed Ireland should return to the status of British backwater again. What were the silly Micks thinking anyway in 1922?

I'm happy this view is shared by a completely serious British former MEP.

are you going to keep on setting up extreme straw-man arguments intended to position my argument far from where it actually is?

seems like you'd more profitably spend your time addressing the points raised by GC..........

[Louis VI the Fat]

Gaelic is no longer an interesting conversation partner. He does not represent a sovereign country anymore. So let's rather discuss the terms under which Britain can resume control over paddystan again.

I propose we consider it in the context of the inevitable demise of Belgium. How about the UK gets Ireland, France gets to assume control over Flanders, and we satisfy any German demands by offering them Greece?

[Furunculus]

i'm afraid it has always been British policy never to let a major power to get control of the low countries, so no dice.

if portugal is our oldest extant ally, then flanders/netherlands/belgium could make a decent case for being the second oldest.

[rory_20_uk]

France also needs to do more about those small principalities on its border who do little more than provide tax havens for companies and individuals. Invade the lot, it should only take a weekend.

I've no idea why Germany would want Greece. I've little idea why anyone would want Greece. Belgium could be divided amongst France, the Netherlands and Germany.

The UK doesn't want Ireland, as it's full of the Irish. Cromwell did his best, but sadly a few of the buggers weren't hunted down. Vermin are difficult to exterminate... The best solution would be a bilateral treaty with free trade and a currency ratio. I don't think that anything more than that would sit well with either side.