A History of Violence [Concluded]

[LazyMcCrow]

Woah... that messes with my expectations a bit.

First, is that vote legal, and second... not scum partners with Jarema, apparently.

Not 100% sure about your conclusion there - although I DO take the point. Anyway, I've picked my weapon. Prepare to die scum.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I got this whole game in the freaking bag scummos. You better kill me and remove my vote, or I will make you pay for it dearly.

[SalmonSoil]

Not 100% sure about your conclusion there - although I DO take the point. Anyway, I've picked my weapon. Prepare to die scum.

I have chosen a superior weapon, and I can't wait to spill your scum blood with it.

[LazyMcCrow]

Apparently you chose the same as me, which is why I've had to pick something else.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Patience, Viceroy, patience. He will die.

[Riedquat]

[BSmith]

indeed.

[LazyMcCrow]

Keep waiting - we both picked whip that time.
EDIT: And signpost the time before that!

[DaveShack]

I would have been awake, but had to get up a bit earlier today than usual so went to sleep earlier.

I overlooked a partnership option. If it ends up being the partnership and mafia wins, then I might have let them off the hook.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I would have been awake, but had to get up a bit earlier today than usual so went to sleep earlier.

I overlooked a partnership option. If it ends up being the partnership and mafia wins, then I might have let them off the hook.

You're here now, your thoughts on the partnership option.

[DaveShack]

Well, Jarema + SalmonSoil would be the one remaining. I'm obviously leaving out me + somebody, but I always do that since I'm innocent. Though looking at other recent endgames, maybe I should do more to prove it's not me.

[DaveShack]

Do you mind my asking why?

Nerves of steel perhaps? Because a really violent reaction would be a scumtell, nonchalant like this seems a little more town.

???


ANyway, I am vote: ATPG

Let's just toss some votes out there and see which one sticks.

I agree that Daveshack is probably innocent. My inquiry wasn't to remove suspicion, at this point in the game, where lynching mafia is crucial, shouldn't we want to know everyone's reasons for voting? Which reminds me, Jarema it would be nice to know why you think Pizza is guilty.

I agree with Pizza on this, Jarema has only once actually given a reason for lynching someone. Lazy McCrow is also vague with his voting, although when asked he usually gives some reasons pretty quickly (10 minutes when I asked, 20 minutes one time earlier). This actually makes him more suspicious, as it seems he is closely watching this thread, always alert and ready to defend himself. It is possible though, that those are just the times he happens to be online. Also when he voted for Pizza and was asked to defend his vote he declined to give reasons.

So at the moment looks like I'm going to have to vote: Lazy McCrow

But if it looks like I'm going to be lynched by the end of the day I'm going to have to shift my vote to you, Pizza, simply because I am innocent and it is therefore better for me to see someone lynched who might possibly be guilty. Also I'm interested in Jarema's reasons for voting Pizza.

In defense of myself, the reason I only asked Lazy McCrow to give reasons for voting for me and didn't give my own suspicions at the time was that I was tired and just wanted to go to sleep. I thought that it would be best to give myself some more material to analyse when I woke up, and possibly also remove some suspicion from me.

Calls out Jarema's voting with no reasons, but then picks someone else. That someone else can't be Pizza because of the uber-townie post, and it can't be me or it would raise everyone's suspicions. Can't be Jarema if they're buddies, therefore Lazy is the only option.

I like your analysis, ATPG.
TBH, I did not have any real reason for voting for you. It was just a feeling that something is wrong with your gameplay.
Anyway, now I am torn between voting for Salmon and voting for Lazy.
Vote: LazyMcCrow, as this wagon has a chance of standing and hitting scum

Agrees with Pizza, but can't vote for buddy Salmon. And there is a valid bandwagon, so goes for it.

At this point I was 99% of the way to switching. I got into a whole lot of WIFOM -- is Pizza right and I've been played, or have I picked up on Lazy with a monumentally good catch? If I had taken another 10 minutes to work though the round's votes and redo my previous analysis, I'd have gone ahead and switched, but I could barely keep my eyes open.

We'll see in a bit which way it goes. First time I've been the swing vote at such an important point and I really don't know if I'm right or wrong.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Well, Jarema + SalmonSoil would be the one remaining. I'm obviously leaving out me + somebody, but I always do that since I'm innocent. Though looking at other recent endgames, maybe I should do more to prove it's not me.

That was my main theory given their interaction. I'm not quite as sure now. More on that after the lynch result.

[Nightbringer]

Hurry up and kill each-other already, I want blood! (and to see what happens) :)

[SalmonSoil]

I may have held up this lynch somewhat by going to sleep. Lazy you better not choose the same weapon as me this time.

[Visor]

FINALLY.

Salmon is killed. You all know my issue with time, the writeups will come when they can. (Also, midsem exam on saturday, so not until after then).

24 hours for night.

[SalmonSoil]

Im.. Impossible....

[Askthepizzaguy]

Well it doesn't much matter now.

The tally leading up to that stupid lynch showed that SalmonSoil's last second vote change would have actually killed him if it were a legal vote. Given how the mafia are acutely aware of everyone still alive, who is innocent and not, and what the status of themselves or their partner is, there's no way in hell that Salmon was guilty. The point being I would have pointed to that tomorrow had Salmon survived, and that would have made the next lynch a bit easier.

All could have been avoided by the coordination and cooperation of the team, not waiting until the last minute to place our votes, and so on. No one person is to blame but it was a cluster of.... fun. We have to do better.

I'm not saying I'm awesome and everyone else sucks, I'm saying that we're not acting like a team and so we will lose if we don't remedy that.

[Nightbringer]

I still think jarema is probably the best bet for scum, but that certainly does mic things up a bit.

[LazyMcCrow]

Well it doesn't much matter now.
I'm not saying I'm awesome and everyone else sucks, I'm saying that we're not acting like a team and so we will lose if we don't remedy that.

Too late. Mafia win. Pizza is mafia & Daveshack is mafia and Jarema is mafia - I don't care which combination is true cause one of them is. As I said before Pizza - if you are mafia then well played sir. If however, you are town, then everything you wrote above applies double to you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Too late. Mafia win. Pizza is mafia & Daveshack is mafia and Jarema is mafia - I don't care which combination is true cause one of them is.

Insightful, decisive analysis.

If however, you are town, then everything you wrote above applies double to you.

Whatever.

[LazyMcCrow]

Insightful, decisive analysis.



Whatever.

Don't like criticism? I'm sorry I may have exaggerated to make a point. How about I amend my comment to:

If however, you are town then everything you wrote applies at least as much to you. Is that better?

Thing is - you're playing this kind of Mr. Motivator - I hate playing town cause it isn't a team thing, but in my eyes, you've been more misleading (assuming you are town!) than any other townie in the game!
Your sarky comment about my 'Insightful, decisive analysis' was fair enough. Mafia HAVE NOT YET WON, if SalmonSoil WAS mafia :)

If you ARE town, then maybe stop kicking a man when he's down and practice what you is preachin. I just had to kill a man with a Mace for ***** sake! - what did you DO for town daddio?

[Askthepizzaguy]

You seriously believe that the mafia, instead of switching their votes to save themselves, would attempt to commit suicide for no reason at all on a round where, if there are two of them, survival means that they've won the game and no longer have to lie to us.


No offense intended to SalmonSoil, but only a townie would do something so anti-team. It's an honest mistake but the mafia OBVIOUSLY WOULD NOT DO THAT.

[LazyMcCrow]

You seriously believe that the mafia, instead of switching their votes to save themselves, would attempt to commit suicide for no reason at all on a round where, if there are two of them, survival means that they've won the game and no longer have to lie to us.


No offense intended to SalmonSoil, but only a townie would do something so anti-team. It's an honest mistake but the mafia OBVIOUSLY WOULD NOT DO THAT.

No - you're right, it's unlikely, which is why I gave my first response - my insightful analysis - that mafia have this sewn up now irrespective of who they are. I wasn't expecting a critique on that particularly.
I think you're right about the frustrations of being town - I'm still learning and at the moment a terrible townie. I was just taking issue with your lecture, given that you've just switched into a super-townie after being the guy who was spilling wine all over the rug - Don't see the point of that (unless you're mafia :))
If you are - then this is the third game when I've ignored my instincts and backed down when I shouldn't have in the face of a little indignance

[Askthepizzaguy]

If the game is over there's little point to further wailing and gnashing of teeth about it, but statistically we should have lynched a scumbag by now. As such I'm proceeding as if the game is still playing because if it is, this is the only moment we have left to get it right.

As you're talking to me I'm posting an analysis of the remaining players, and I invite folks to join me in that endeavor, as that's far more productive than even my lecturing, which I have a tendency to do.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Starting with Jarema, since that is the direction the murdered dead are pointing in. Plus I tried to lynch him, and perhaps this will illustrate what I'm seeing.

in in

Pregame.

Vote: Arjos
first thought is always the best

First vote was on Arjos, an eventual lynchee.

Could you post a timer? It is easier to understand when day/night ends

Splitpersonality.
Throwing almost random comments and not going after own thoughts

Split, another lynchee.

I was second voting for him...
do not know why host put my name last in the description, I believe Nightbringer was last there

Yeah!
vote: Riedquat

Riedquat, another lynchee.

Whatt????

Click and read the context, this post pings a bit, in the overacting category.

ok
I do not have enough psychic energy left to think now.
As a placeholder vote, that will stay if I have no better idea, vote: Arjos

Jarema joins my accusation on Arjos, another lynchee. So far, he has not voted for anyone who has gotten murdered, which is a bit odd.

???

ANyway, I am vote: ATPG

This is in reaction to murdered person pointing the finger at him. And then he votes for me, no explanation.

I like your analysis, ATPG.
TBH, I did not have any real reason for voting for you. It was just a feeling that something is wrong with your gameplay.
Anyway, now I am torn between voting for Salmon and voting for Lazy.
Vote: LazyMcCrow, as this wagon has a chance of standing and hitting scum

On the spot, backs off of voting for me.
Doesn't say what caused his suspicion on me.
Says he's torn between the current candidates, doesn't give a real reason to vote for either one except that Lazy's lynch is more likely to succeed, therefore he's the one who should be lynched.

Jarema's play has been extremely consistent all game long- brief posts, and whoever he votes for usually ends up dead via the lynch, and hasn't voted for a murdered party yet. This could indicate a link between the murders and the lynches; specifically that the people who get murdered are not folks he's trying to get killed via the lynch. That further suggests a strategy of lynching folks that can be lynched, and murdering folks that he's got no direct connection to.

That would be the Mafia ESP theory.

Explanation of Mafia ESP theory:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

In a game with a large number of rounds, sometimes the mafia will make a certain kind of mistake that can be directly observed by statistical analysis.

Players A through M begin the game, player C is mafia.

Player C's strategy is not to vote for folks he intends to murder, so the proven-innocent parties will not find him as suspicious.

Other players who are townie have no access to murder as a method of dispatching their foes, and have no knowledge of who is going to be murdered.

Over time, most players will vote for murdered parties, even make big attempts to lynch said foes. Sometimes they will engage in a bitter rivalry wherein one of them is murdered, pointing suspicion at the other. In the endgame, folks may be forced to work with people they've been strongly accusing all game, just to lynch the actual mafia. Meanwhile, the mafia has removed all elements of teamwork from the townie team by breaking up obvious threats to their existence, removing folks who are working together, and leaving folks who are at each other's throats, while looking innocent themselves.

This causes the game to get progressively harder for the town, because for example, suppose that next round, Lazy and myself are the only remaining townies. But, suspicion and friction causes us not to work as well together, whereas let's say for example DaveShack is the mafia and has no real conflict with myself or Lazy. The game history works against the town in that example, and since in that example Dave controls the murders, he's also caused it all to happen and left people alive who aren't functioning well together as a team and also don't suspect him.

These are just examples, but the end result is twofold:

On the town side: Folks who have been trying to kill each other, even though they're teammates, are left alive. They've also got a history of voting for each other and failing to succeed, and voting for folks who get murdered, because they've got no idea who is guilty or not and who will be alive at the endgame.

On the mafia side: The scumbag emerges mostly unscathed, but with a detectable pattern in their votes. They didn't vote for folks they ended up murdering, causing a direct correlation between their votes and the murders themselves, in that they do not overlap. Furthermore, the mafia ends up alone with townies they've never really voted for, or townies they feel they can eventually lynch anyway.

What is being observed, is a difference between the near-random votes of the town and the calculated strategy of a mafioso. That causes a player in particular to appear to have psychic powers, being able to predict who will die and who will not die.

Why it's relevant here- I see such a pattern emerging from Jarema's votes. I also see that he seems to be particularly unconcerned by who gets lynched in the first place, not moving his vote around much, and that he seems to have no sense of urgency regarding the late rounds of the game, as his contributions to the discussion and depth of his reasoning for voting people have not increased in the slightest.

This is all entirely unfair to Jarema if he's innocent, because this is all circumstantial and coincidental. And if it is, you'd be unable to tell the difference, because it's absolutely identical to the phenomenon I'm referring to.

To give Jarema a fair shake, you'd also have to analyze the other three. But for now, my suspicion on Jarema is still present from the previous round.

[Nightbringer]

Well, Jarema + SalmonSoil would be the one remaining. I'm obviously leaving out me + somebody, but I always do that since I'm innocent. Though looking at other recent endgames, maybe I should do more to prove it's not me.

I do think that dave has been genuinely inactive, rather than lurking scum, but I would like to point out this post. It strikes me as a bit overly defensive and looping, but in a more townie sloppy kind of way. I feel like a mafia would have structured this post more carefully.

Its the kind of thing I would post as an innocent, but I can't really be sure what it means without knowing more about dave's play style.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Moving onto DaveShack.

Innage

Pregame.

Hmm, 2nd day and it's still basically chaos. I'll fall back on the classic Vote: Salmonsoil

Votes after almost everyone else has already voted, putting the tally thusly.

Tally:
Kage (ATPG)
Seon x 2 (Lazy, edse)
Salmon x 2 (Daveshack, Split)
Split x 3 (Kagemusha, Nightbringer, Jarema)
Jarrema (Riedquat)
Atheotes (Arjos)
Nightbringer x 2 (BSmith, Atheotes)
ATPG (Tuuvi)
Daveshack (Salmon)

This puts forward an alternative to Split, who ends up being murdered and is therefore a townie. Unfortunate that it was SalmonSoil, who is about as lock a townie as a lynchee can get due to the previous round.

What is the negative? Nothing striking, but it could indicate a desire to remove someone who voted for you without clearing them as townie, and also, without adding to the Split wagon, which could look scummier.

As such, it's possibly a very smart move by a scum. No firm indication whether it's the innocent or guilty option.

Vote: Seon this case seems better than the others.

I never really liked the Seon case, he felt like such an easy target.

I voted for him, sure. I even OMGUS voted him, but when I voted him it wasn't a wagon, and there was no case, and I sure as hell didn't do it for the reasons given in the case. The case was added later, by others, who hopped onto my vote.

If Arjos was guilty, and Dave is guilty, that could explain this tally:

Tally:
2 Arjos (Seon, Salmonsoil)
3 Seon (ATPG, Arjos, DaveShack
2 Nightbringer (LazyMcCrow, BSmith)

Which is how Seon got lynched, Arjos edged out Seon, and Dave is still alive.

That's possible negative points for Arjos, a lynchee who was never proven innocent, and Dave, who was also not proven innocent yet.

One could suggest me and Arjos, which meant I bussed him pretty hardcore. Which I can accept as an option, even though I know it's not what happened. We're looking for possible mafia pairs in the voting record, and if there is a round where the votes are close and it's possible the mafia voted together, this round is still a very real possibility.


This notion I'd like to explore more, because right after this, I made the lynching case FOR Arjos.

This is how they both reacted:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053434135

Arjos' immediate reaction.

In the end, can't really say whether you lurked or not...
Monty lately has a thing about getting lynched on day 1 as mafia and he wants you dead, but gah...

Vote: DaveShack

Of all people, he voted only twice in intervals to avoid the 3 in a row rule and with the following reasons: there's still chaos and this is better than the other case...
Among all, he's the one striking me as the "nothing here, vote elsewhere"...

Possible he senses that he's going down, immediately distances himself from DaveShack.

Vote: Arjos

Self-preservation, and the pizza dude's analysis makes sense.

DaveShack responds to the distancing maneuver in the expected way: join in on destroying Arjos. Obviously they can't be scum buddies now, right?

Wait, am I? Umm, nope. Not saying a lot -- check. Plain vanilla me, as usual.

That doesn't sound the least bit off to me.

I would have been awake, but had to get up a bit earlier today than usual so went to sleep earlier.

I overlooked a partnership option. If it ends up being the partnership and mafia wins, then I might have let them off the hook.

Dave's big analytical contribution to the game:

Jarema and SalmonSoil are mafia together. This is what he's referring to.

This is also something several dead folks have suggested, and I suggested already. Feels a bit late to the party.

Now, in my mind, this partnership has been rendered impossible by the events of the previous round. but Dave was on the wagon in agreement with it's likelihood of being true. I pointed out how it's probably completely false.

Well, Jarema + SalmonSoil would be the one remaining. I'm obviously leaving out me + somebody, but I always do that since I'm innocent. Though looking at other recent endgames, maybe I should do more to prove it's not me.

I'd agree with you on that.

You and most people are deliberately avoiding the "who is my mafia partner" discussion. Except I cheekily welcomed it earlier on this game.

But this comment feels a bit self-conscious.

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053435524

Here, Dave is still under absolutely no real pressure and is able to freely and more aggressively attack some of the remaining suspects on the final rounds of the game, with impunity.

Which is what he should do if he's scum. Or if he's townie...

We'll see in a bit which way it goes. First time I've been the swing vote at such an important point and I really don't know if I'm right or wrong.

I get a slight ping off this post due to what I've noticed about the way mafia "act" as townies... instead of trying to convey emotion or ignorance, they simply state it for the record like a bad actor.

"I am angry right now. Look at my angry smiley faces I'm posting."

"I have no idea who is guilty."

That sort of thing. There's a hint of that here.


Overall-

DaveShack is a very experienced mafia player who hails from another forum. While you can get scummy leans on posts from virtually any post in a game from any player if you try hard enough, not much Dave has done provokes a very strong "gosh that's scummy" reaction from me.

Which might be the whole point behind his play. If I'm a damned good mafia player I would do a lot of what DaveShack has done to avoid certain tells.

If looked at through goggles which color him completely guilty, ignoring the lack of scum tells, you could see a lot of what his strategy is, you might even assume he was mafia with Arjos. That would explain a lot of his interaction with Arjos, and a lot about where we stand right now. I, for example, haven't found Dave that scummy and I have found lots of others scummy. That would explain my continued existence.

There's a lot that can be found if you force yourself to view him as guilty and look at all evidence as incriminating. But do I really think he's guilty?

If he is, he deserves the win. He's certainly outplayed us. Jarema still pings me a lot harder than Dave does.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Analysis of Lazy will take longer due to the fact that he's posted three times more than the others.

I may have to just cut out some of the posts that I feel are unrelated to the game itself and have no lean either way.

[LazyMcCrow]

Analysis of Lazy will take longer due to the fact that he's posted three times more than the others.

I may have to just cut out some of the posts that I feel are unrelated to the game itself and have no lean either way.

Ok cool - I'll do you then. Woo! Go Team!