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Thread: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity') [Concluded]

  1. #91
    Peerless Senior Member johnhughthom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Ishmael View Post
    I don't think that's really intended as a detective claim, although JHT can feel free to confirm that.

    Anyway, what is the case on Visor? I get the feeling that I'm missing something here.
    It's an "I used my ability on him and got a guilty result" claim. I don't know what the ability is, I could be a Bar Tender looking for the guy who stole a bottle of bacardi from behind the bar.

    But I'm probably some form of cop.

  2. #92
    Senior Member Senior Member Jarema's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by johnhughthom View Post
    I don't know what the ability is, I could be a Bar Tender looking for the guy who stole a bottle of bacardi from behind the bar.
    No, you can't
    List of possible roles is included in first post

  3. #93
    Member Member Ishmael's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by johnhughthom View Post
    It's an "I used my ability on him and got a guilty result" claim. I don't know what the ability is, I could be a Bar Tender looking for the guy who stole a bottle of bacardi from behind the bar.

    But I'm probably some form of cop.
    Huh. Well, in that case unvote: vote, Visorslash. Sure JHT could be an insane/paranoid cop, but this still gives us a better than otherwise chance of lynching scum.

  4. #94
    The Bad Doctor Senior Member Chaotix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Ishmael View Post
    Huh. Well, in that case unvote: vote, Visorslash. Sure JHT could be an insane/paranoid cop, but this still gives us a better than otherwise chance of lynching scum.
    No, it doesn't. We know it can't be Naive Cop, and I don't know what the Macho Cop does, but assuming Sane Cop is the only one that gives the correct answer, Visor has a one in four shot of being mafia.

    How many mafia are in this game? Two? Three? Five?

    With so many power roles in the town's hands, I'd have to say at least 3, perhaps more. In which case, there being 13 living players left, we have about a one in four shot of hitting mafia if we lynch at random.

    The only thing that could make it worth it to lynch Visorslash solely because of the scan result would be getting some extra insight as to what JHT's role is. But then again, if he's right about Visorslash, he probably won't live to scan again. If he's not, his role is almost useless until we figure it out, but he might still get killed just because of the risk of him being a paranoid cop.

    That said, I might vote for Visor anyway. We have enough votes to lynch him though. I'll leave my vote open in case I see someone pull a scummy move and we ought to change the lynch.

    Vote: Abstain
    Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer: The Gameroom

  5. #95

    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    I can assure you that JHT is a paranoid or insane cop.

    Atheotes is a much better lynch then me.

    EDIT: Macho cops can't be protected.

  6. #96

    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    he probably won't live to scan again.
    As an outed cop who can't even be trusted to influence the lynch with his scans, he will not live long anyway.

    Lynch the both of them.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  7. #97
    COYATOYPIKC Senior Member Flatout Minigame Champion Arjos's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    With the first post I thought John was joking lol

    Atheotes did lynch Monty, but imo the latter is to blame, for putting his usual "networky, know it all" aura, which townies so love to lynch...
    Visor did joke vote on D1, but so does everybody else pretty much: in any other game, I'd vote Visor, but here we could've town powers working against itself...

    Vote: Chaotix

    He should know how Monty plays, but still worked on the town's paranoia and he has been in his "helpful townie" persona, which he lately picked up as mafia (see for example the "nobody is hosting" game), keeping distance even with this runaway wagon...
    Of all people he's the one trying the hardest to keep it cool...

  8. #98
    Member Member Ishmael's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Chaotix View Post
    No, it doesn't. We know it can't be Naive Cop, and I don't know what the Macho Cop does, but assuming Sane Cop is the only one that gives the correct answer, Visor has a one in four shot of being mafia.
    If the macho cop is as Visor says, then JHT has a 3/5 chance of getting the right answer:

    If target is mafia: Sane, Macho, Paranoid are correct.
    If target is town: Sane, Macho and Naive are correct.

    Assuming for the sake of argument that there are 3 scum roles, that gives us a 3/5 probability of Visorslash being scum, versus a 3/13 chance of lynching scum if we lynch randomly.

    That said, now that I've typed this I've realised there's the possibility that JHT is a lying mafioso, in which case he can just plead insanity and get away with it. But that seems a bit of a high-risk play by mafia for D2, and I think I'm willing to risk it.

  9. #99
    The Bad Doctor Senior Member Chaotix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Arjos View Post
    With the first post I thought John was joking lol

    Atheotes did lynch Monty, but imo the latter is to blame, for putting his usual "networky, know it all" aura, which townies so love to lynch...
    Visor did joke vote on D1, but so does everybody else pretty much: in any other game, I'd vote Visor, but here we could've town powers working against itself...

    Vote: Chaotix

    He should know how Monty plays, but still worked on the town's paranoia and he has been in his "helpful townie" persona, which he lately picked up as mafia (see for example the "nobody is hosting" game), keeping distance even with this runaway wagon...
    Of all people he's the one trying the hardest to keep it cool...
    Oh, please. I am the definition of cool.

    Nobody can make me sweat.

    Not even a little.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    OH GOD OH GOFD DONT LETJTE THEM LYNCH MNE MAH SUCM BUDDIES NEE D MEH


    I do know how Monty plays. It's just that he was practically asking to be lynched, and when someone does that you just gotta lynch them because if you don't and they turn out to be mafia, then everyone feels like an idiot.
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  10. #100
    Member Member BSmith's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    vote: Visorslash.
    Always meet on the level, act by the plumb and part on the square.
    2B1ASK1

  11. #101
    The Bad Doctor Senior Member Chaotix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Ishmael View Post
    If the macho cop is as Visor says, then JHT has a 3/5 chance of getting the right answer:

    If target is mafia: Sane, Macho, Paranoid are correct.
    If target is town: Sane, Macho and Naive are correct.

    Assuming for the sake of argument that there are 3 scum roles, that gives us a 3/5 probability of Visorslash being scum, versus a 3/13 chance of lynching scum if we lynch randomly.

    That said, now that I've typed this I've realised there's the possibility that JHT is a lying mafioso, in which case he can just plead insanity and get away with it. But that seems a bit of a high-risk play by mafia for D2, and I think I'm willing to risk it.
    If Macho Cop gives the correct answer too, that's pretty much all I need. It's actually 75% instead of 60%, because there's a 0% chance that JHT is a Naive Cop - he couldn't get a guilty result if that was the case.

    Unvote, Vote: Visorslash
    Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer: The Gameroom

  12. #102

    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Funny maths.

    Sane, Macho, Paranoid, Insane. The last two are worthless: 50%.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  13. #103
    The Bad Doctor Senior Member Chaotix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Funny maths.

    Sane, Macho, Paranoid, Insane. The last two are worthless: 50%.
    Gah. Yes, you are correct. Paranoid does not actually give useful results (but Insane does if you can figure it out).

    Still, 50% is good chances, low risk.
    Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer: The Gameroom

  14. #104
    Member Member Ishmael's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Funny maths.

    Sane, Macho, Paranoid, Insane. The last two are worthless: 50%.
    Not true. If you scan a happen to scan a mafioso as a paranoid detective (and, importantly, you don't know you're paranoid), then you're still correct. It doesn't matter that you're right for the wrong reasons, only that you're right.
    Last edited by Ishmael; 07-09-2012 at 15:06. Reason: Paranoid and insane mixed up

  15. #105
    Senior Member Senior Member Jarema's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    I will say what is macho policeman in this game (if he is here...).
    Macho policeman: gets correct results of scans; if he is protected, his scanning ability does not work for this night (protection acts additionally as a roleblocking at him)

  16. #106
    Peerless Senior Member johnhughthom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Jarema View Post
    No, you can't
    List of possible roles is included in first post


    Love your deadpan posting style, Jarema.

  17. #107

    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    What do we want to look at? We want to know the probability of Visor being scum based on the result.

    There are 4 possible roles, and two always give a valid result.

    A third - insane - gives an opposite result, so a guilty result would indicate a 0% chance.

    The fourth - paranoid - always gives the same result, so we'll take your figure for random and give it a 3/13 chance.

    So 1.00*.25 + 1.00*.25 + .23*.25 = .5575 = about 56% chance.

    Happy?
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  18. #108
    The Bad Doctor Senior Member Chaotix's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Ishmael View Post
    Not true. If you scan a happen to scan a mafioso as a paranoid detective (and, importantly, you don't know you're paranoid), then you're still correct. It doesn't matter that you're right for the wrong reasons, only that you're right.
    For our purposes, if JHT is a Paranoid Cop then his result on Visorslash has no bearing on whether or not he's mafia. Whereas Sane and Macho mean for sure that he's mafia, and Insane means the opposite. So technically the chances for Visorslash being mafia come out to 50% + (25% * 3/13). But that is so close to 50% that it would be annoying to insinuate it's a significant difference, especially after all those other times that my math was wrong and I was corrected.

    EDIT: Pirate Ninja Robot Zombie'd.
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  19. #109
    Peerless Senior Member johnhughthom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Stop turning mafia into maths!

  20. #110
    Member Member Ishmael's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Quote Originally Posted by Chaotix View Post
    EDIT: Pirate Ninja Robot Zombie'd.
    Hey! Stop cross-promoting!

    It looks like you guys are correct on that, but it of course still gives us a much better than random chance of catching scum if we lynch Visor.

    Also JHT, don't you know that maths is fun?

  21. #111
    Member Member Plasmanaut on Fire Champion Memnon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    I agree with the Visorslash lynch

    Vote:Visorslash

    John's results are still better than lynching randomly IMO.

  22. #112
    Senior Member Senior Member Jarema's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Tally:
    Visorslash: johnhughtom, Edse, Zaccino, Atheotes, Ishmael, BSmith, Chaotix, Memnon,
    Atheotes: Visorslash,
    Zaccino: The King
    Chaotix: Arjos
    Not voting: Robbiecon, Daveshack

  23. #113
    Senior Member Senior Member Jarema's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Visorslash was lynched!
    He was mafia member! He was the informant


    Night 2 begins.



    Living:
    1. DaveShack
    2. Edse
    3. Chaotix
    4. BSmith
    5. Robbiecon
    6. Memnon
    7. Arjos
    8.
    9. Ishmael
    10. The King
    11. Atheotes
    12. classical hero replaced by johnhughtom
    13.
    14.
    15. Zaccino

    Dead:
    Montmorency: town, cop. Lynched day 1.
    Nightbringer: town, jailkeeper. Killed night 1.
    Visorslash: mafia, informant. Lynched day 2.
    Last edited by Jarema; 07-09-2012 at 22:03.

  24. #114
    COYATOYPIKC Senior Member Flatout Minigame Champion Arjos's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Fancy that John was right ^^

  25. #115
    Peerless Senior Member johnhughthom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Fancy that, John is gonna die...

    Unless a clever townie has figured out a protection ability they can use on me.

  26. #116
    COYATOYPIKC Senior Member Flatout Minigame Champion Arjos's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Ugh, I still have no clue, just the number...
    Still imo Visor got bussed today and I have my few suspects...

  27. #117
    Senior Member Senior Member Jarema's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    At the beginning of day, two bodies were found.
    Atheotes was a townie. He was a doctor.

    The King was a townie. He was a curious guy.



    Day 3 begins.



    Living:
    1. DaveShack
    2. Edse
    3. Chaotix
    4. BSmith
    5. Robbiecon
    6. Memnon
    7. Arjos
    8.
    9. Ishmael
    10.
    11.
    12. classical hero replaced by johnhughtom
    13.
    14.
    15. Zaccino

    Dead:
    Montmorency: town, cop. Lynched day 1.
    Nightbringer: town, jailkeeper. Killed night 1.
    Visorslash: mafia, informant. Lynched day 2.
    The King: town, curious guy. Killed night 2
    Atheotes: town, doctor. Killed night 2
    Last edited by Jarema; 07-11-2012 at 07:54.

  28. #118
    Peerless Senior Member johnhughthom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')



    Any results for me?

  29. #119
    Italian stallion Member edse's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    Vote: Memnon

    Two persons visited johnhughtom last night, atheotes and Memnon.

  30. #120
    Desynchronized Member robbiecon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Small mafia game 'Guess what your role is' (aka 'role insanity')

    I am the Monkey. I receive a result that some random person is innocent.

    My two innocents returned are Memnon and edse.

    I will provisionally Vote: DaveShack, as I need to vote to prevent being WOG'd. If john gets a result, I'll follow that.

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