Ukraine-in-a-thread

[a completely inoffensive name]

Yes, 'cause they would have sold them just like that.

Thanks for agreeing.

[rory_20_uk]

When the USSR fell, we should have taken advantage and just bought up all the nukes. Odd how not one think tank had the foresight to think that maybe, just maybe, Russia wouldn't turn into a capitalist paradise we could all be friends with.

Every country should have bought a few - just in case.

America can destroy a conventional army as that is what it is designed to do. But a regime that might detonate a nuke or two... well, that's much more of a wild card.

[Husar]

When the USSR fell, we should have taken advantage and just bought up all the nukes. Odd how not one think tank had the foresight to think that maybe, just maybe, Russia wouldn't turn into a capitalist paradise we could all be friends with.

We can all be friends with them, but not if we keep sending money to people who attack them.

As for the nukes, that would've just meant that they had only new ones instead of old ones today.

[GenosseGeneral]

When the USSR fell, we should have taken advantage and just bought up all the nukes. Odd how not one think tank had the foresight to think that maybe, just maybe, Russia wouldn't turn into a capitalist paradise we could all be friends with.

Even in the darkest days of the 1990s, Russia would have not given up its nukes. I wonder, whether the Ukrainians will now build their own, as the Budapest memorandum under which they gave up their 3000 warheads was obviously not worth the paper it was written on.

And yes, Ukraine has certainly the capabilities to build nukes in a not too long time, though they might lack the funds.

[Hax]

I never mentioned or implied persecution, I just mentioned that the Baltic states are not as glorious as you make them out to be

Are you kidding me? I quote:

they prevent you from learning the language in the first place

treat their ethnically russian population like outcasts?

What is that if it's not some kind of persecution? Also, when have I ever implied that there is absolutely nothing wrong with the way Russians are treated in the Baltic States? It's just that it appears that you're overly fond of criticising Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania under the guise of "being neutral", whereas these particular countries have not only suffered under 50 years of Soviet occupation, but where the memory of deportations and the like is rather fresh.

That's what I said, what are you arguing about then?

What I'm arguing is that the Baltic States aren't the Russophobe hellholes that you make them out to be.

The "assimilate or sod off" is quite contrary to the what would be a democratic and civilized way of dealing with it. Serbia was bombed 15 years ago for applying the same standard to Albanians.

Note that this is not the standard that the Estonian government uses as far as I'm aware. This is just the message I got from a Russian-Estonian. And it's not even about complete cultural assimilation (cf. the Old Believers around Lake Peipus), it's about the fact that there is a worryingly large population of Russians that refuses to accept that the Soviet Union is over and is more or less caught inbetween everything.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Hax, I'm not sure why you brought up the Baltic states in response to my Ukraine comment, since their situation is quite different on a number of levels. In the Baltic states, you have a much clearer divide between the 'native' and Russian populations - in the case of Estonia they both speak languages from completely different families. From what I understand, Ukrainian is barely different from Russian, and language-identification in Ukraine is based far more on political alignment than linguistic differences. This is significant because unlike the Baltic states where the Russian presence is more an artificial legacy of Soviet ethnic policies, Ukraine has a much deeper and more intertwined history with Russia. For that reason I think it is possible to have a more genuine Russian nationalism in Ukraine that in would be in Estonia, where as you say, it might take on more the character of Soviet imperialism.

I am also of the impression that the Baltic states are closer to what we would consider Western and free societies than Ukraine. I suppose this is at least in part because they have been as much part of the Western world (through the Germanic/Scandinavian influence in Estonia/Latvia and the Germanic/Polish influence in Lithuania) as they have the Eastern. If the Estonian government truly treats Russians well, then fair play. But the situation is evidently very different in Ukraine, if only perhaps because the Russian population there is sufficiently large to challenge the direction the country is going in.

I never have quite the personal stories of the bohemians on this board, so my only anecdotal story is a girl in one of my university tutorial groups who identified as a "Russian from Estonia". I presumed at the time that must just mean her parents were 1st generation immigrants, looking back now maybe that was not the case. The fact she studying abroad at a university would seem to back up your point that not all Russian Estonians are hopelessly uneducated and oppressed.

[Husar]

What is that if it's not some kind of persecution? Also, when have I ever implied that there is absolutely nothing wrong with the way Russians are treated in the Baltic States? It's just that it appears that you're overly fond of criticising Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania under the guise of "being neutral", whereas these particular countries have not only suffered under 50 years of Soviet occupation, but where the memory of deportations and the like is rather fresh.

So they are probably not persecuting them but if they were it would be okay because an eye for an eye?
By persecution I understand hunt and jail or something very similar but apparently dictionaries also include try to keep them from buying pizza, so maybe I was indeed talking about persecution because I meant try to keep them from voting. So yeah, they are persecuting them and the Soviet Union did a lot for them, read that article I posted earlier, there is no excuse.

What I'm arguing is that the Baltic States aren't the Russophobe hellholes that you make them out to be.

See, that's why I objected to the term persecution because it usually comes right to hellhole even though I just meant that they try to delay/hinder their full integration, which is not the same as being a hellhole. At the same time you could try to stop praising them like they're all god's country just because you recently read a few books about them.

Note that this is not the standard that the Estonian government uses as far as I'm aware. This is just the message I got from a Russian-Estonian. And it's not even about complete cultural assimilation (cf. the Old Believers around Lake Peipus), it's about the fact that there is a worryingly large population of Russians that refuses to accept that the Soviet Union is over and is more or less caught inbetween everything.

Just like our worryingly increasing ethnically Turkish population that keeps telling us how Turkey is the better country and also gets to vote for the Turkish president, maybe we should also strip all ethnic Turks' voting rights if they can't write a university-level 50-page report in German and swear a loyalty oath to Germany and Christian values.

[Hax]

By persecution I understand hunt and jail or something very similar but apparently dictionaries also include try to keep them from buying pizza, so maybe I was indeed talking about persecution because I meant try to keep them from voting. So yeah, they are persecuting them and the Soviet Union did a lot for them, read that article I posted earlier, there is no excuse.

The article of which I pointed out that it is directly sponsored by the Russian state.

Meanwhile, a Russian Estonian is Minister of Education, but sure, Russians are being kept from voting.

See, that's why I objected to the term persecution because it usually comes right to hellhole even though I just meant that they try to delay/hinder their full integration, which is not the same as being a hellhole. At the same time you could try to stop praising them like they're all god's country just because you recently read a few books about them.

Why are you so obsessed by the idea that I'm somehow elavating the Baltic states above any or all others?

Just like our worryingly increasing ethnically Turkish population that keeps telling us how Turkey is the better country and also gets to vote for the Turkish president, maybe we should also strip all ethnic Turks' voting rights if they can't write a university-level 50-page report in German and swear a loyalty oath to Germany and Christian values.

You're basically creating a strawman of what you think the Estonian government looks like, which is sadly just not based in reality. While you harp on and on about how they are supposedly taking away the rights of Russians, even those that do not hold passports are able to vote in municipal elections, and at the same time, the number of people without citizenship has dropped from 32 percent in 1992, to 7.6 in 2008.

But sure, you can go shape your perspective of what the country looks like based on one source that is practically from the Russian government, that's also cool.

[Husar]

The article of which I pointed out that it is directly sponsored by the Russian state.

Meanwhile, a Russian Estonian is Minister of Education, but sure, Russians are being kept from voting.

That's the usual "I'm not racist, I have a black friend"-excuse.

Why are you so obsessed by the idea that I'm somehow elavating the Baltic states above any or all others?

Because you are so obsessed with bringing them up all the time and don't even seem to notice it. You're the one who brought them up here to make some weird tangential point that had nothing to do with Ukraine really.

You're basically creating a strawman of what you think the Estonian government looks like, which is sadly just not based in reality. While you harp on and on about how they are supposedly taking away the rights of Russians, even those that do not hold passports are able to vote in municipal elections, and at the same time, the number of people without citizenship has dropped from 32 percent in 1992, to 7.6 in 2008.

But sure, you can go shape your perspective of what the country looks like based on one source that is practically from the Russian government, that's also cool.

Except that I'm not and you just can't deny that they are slowing down the integration, they could have just let all the Russians become citizens right away. You think having 32 percent of the people living in your country without citizenship was normal in 1992?

And sure, you can shape your views of how great a country is based on your fanboy study materials or random anecdotes from people you met there, that's perfectly acceptable. THE EU apparently thought that Estonia wasn't being entirely fair, but hey, what do they know, right?

[Rhyfelwyr]

Except that I'm not and you just can't deny that they are slowing down the integration, they could have just let all the Russians become citizens right away. You think having 32 percent of the people living in your country without citizenship was normal in 1992?

Considering you are talking about a post-Soviet country that had only been independent for a few years after the collapse of the USSR, its not that surprising at all.

[Sarmatian]

Considering you are talking about a post-Soviet country that had only been independent for a few years after the collapse of the USSR, its not that surprising at all.

It was extremely unfair. By modern, civilized standards, ethnicity has nothing to do with citizenship. They live there, pay taxes, and generally have same rights and obligations as everyone else. To exclude them from having any say based on their ethnicity is wrong. You may not like what they have to say, but, hey, that's how democracy works.

[Husar]

Considering you are talking about a post-Soviet country that had only been independent for a few years after the collapse of the USSR, its not that surprising at all.

Yet Germany didn't seem to have any problem with reintegrating the east and quite a few from there even wish that the DDR had never ended. Why are we nicer people than the Estonians? Not just some minister, but our current chancellor is from the DDR. We didn't exclude people born in the DDR from citizenship because they're filthy Russia-loving commies who can't be trusted until they pass the democracy test. And that even though we had to live with the fear of becoming a huge soviet battlefield and getting nuked from two sides for all these years. Meanwhile Estonia was well behind any proposed frontlines in the loving arms of the Soviet motherland and then excluded 32 percent of its inhabitants from becoming citizens. Next up we'll talk about how all of this was Germany's fault in the first place I guess.

[Viking]

The "assimilate or sod off" is quite contrary to the what would be a democratic and civilized way of dealing with it. Serbia was bombed 15 years ago for applying the same standard to Albanians.

And which ethnic wars in the Baltics would you be referring to now?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Russification works. Takes a while, but it works.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It was extremely unfair. By modern, civilized standards, ethnicity has nothing to do with citizenship. They live there, pay taxes, and generally have same rights and obligations as everyone else. To exclude them from having any say based on their ethnicity is wrong. You may not like what they have to say, but, hey, that's how democracy works.

That's like saying post-Apartheid South Africa is a horrible racist place - except the Baltics are much nicer places than SA.

Russians were important to run the Civil Service and major mechanisms of production - the long term goal being to make the Batlics "Russian".

Naturally, the Baltic countries experienced a massive anti-Russian backlash immediately following independence. That would up roughly a decade ago, but you still have Russians depanding the right to be Russian and vote in Estonian elections - and by "Russian" we mean "speak only Russian, think only Russian."

The Estonians et al are not idiots - even if the Germans and French are only now waking up to the fact that the Russian Bear is not at all cuddly.

[Kralizec]

Yet Germany didn't seem to have any problem with reintegrating the east and quite a few from there even wish that the DDR had never ended. Why are we nicer people than the Estonians? Not just some minister, but our current chancellor is from the DDR. We didn't exclude people born in the DDR from citizenship because they're filthy Russia-loving commies who can't be trusted until they pass the democracy test. And that even though we had to live with the fear of becoming a huge soviet battlefield and getting nuked from two sides for all these years. Meanwhile Estonia was well behind any proposed frontlines in the loving arms of the Soviet motherland and then excluded 32 percent of its inhabitants from becoming citizens. Next up we'll talk about how all of this was Germany's fault in the first place I guess.

Citizenship = nationality =/= carrying a passport.

What the Baltic states are doing might not be "nice" but perfectly understandable considering their history of being dominated by Russia. In fact, it could have been a lot worse. And the Baltic states are lucky that the Russians didn't decide to give them the same treatment as Moldova or Georgia, i.e. sending 'peacekeepers' to carve out Russian quasi-states that are recognised by virtually nobody.

[Husar]

Citizenship = nationality =/= carrying a passport.

What the Baltic states are doing might not be "nice" but perfectly understandable considering their history of being dominated by Russia. In fact, it could have been a lot worse. And the Baltic states are lucky that the Russians didn't decide to give them the same treatment as Moldova or Georgia, i.e. sending 'peacekeepers' to carve out Russian quasi-states that are recognised by virtually nobody.

Unlike most of these other countries, the Baltic countries are in NATO, but maybe noone in NATO is willing to honor that treaty.

As for Moldova, that little Russian enclave has been turned into a dictatorial hellhole and since that is apparently how the Russians like it, that proves that they are demonic.

[Sarmatian]

Russians were important to run the Civil Service and major mechanisms of production - the long term goal being to make the Batlics "Russian".

Naturally, the Baltic countries experienced a massive anti-Russian backlash immediately following independence. That would up roughly a decade ago, but you still have Russians depanding the right to be Russian and vote in Estonian elections - and by "Russian" we mean "speak only Russian, think only Russian."

The Estonians et al are not idiots - even if the Germans and French are only now waking up to the fact that the Russian Bear is not at all cuddly.

So, because a good portion of Scots want independent Scotland and don't see Britain as their country, they should have their British citizenship revoked and be excluded from politics in the UK?

[Gilrandir]

Your argument is entirely based on your study abroad experience in that country and you are biased as usual.

So, according to Husar and Sarmatian, one can't claim to be aware of the situation in the country if one is an outsider visiting it from time to time (as with Hax) or an insider living all his life in it all his life (as with me). It seems the best way to get to know a country is to never visit it, stay at home, and surf the internet.

Maybe the situation is getting better now, I do believe it is, but the fact is Baltic states and Poland created oppressive laws which sole purpose was to exclude Russians living there from having any say, and the idea that it somehow justified because of past oppression is even more ludicrous.

It is the first time I hear of a considerable Russian minority in Poland and special measures by the Polish government to hurt it in any way.

Even in the darkest days of the 1990s, Russia would have not given up its nukes. I wonder, whether the Ukrainians will now build their own, as the Budapest memorandum under which they gave up their 3000 warheads was obviously not worth the paper it was written on.

And yes, Ukraine has certainly the capabilities to build nukes in a not too long time, though they might lack the funds.

Possessing nuclear weapons does not prevent Israel from being permanently at war with its Arab neighbors, so Ukraine is not likely to benefit from having it as no one will presume to use it (at least not so near one's own territory).

[Gilrandir]

Have you heard of this one:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/03/wo...isis.html?_r=0

[Strike For The South]

It's September 3rd and Putin is a still a fascist

[Kagemusha]

I am wondering why no one has posted this today? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29042561

Apparently both Poroshenko and Putin seem to be positive about the possibility of cease fire. Of course such might ruin a good thread. :P

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Don't the seven terms leave the separatists in functional control of much of Eastern Ukraine? I don't know that the current Ukraine government could survive such a deal....

All-for-all prisoner exchange? Doesn't that necessarily return more forces to the separatist force pool (at least in relative terms) while not making and substantive increase in fighting power for Ukraine?

I would venture to say this offer will not be picked up.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Don't the seven terms leave the separatists in functional control of much of Eastern Ukraine? I don't know that the current Ukraine government could survive such a deal....

All-for-all prisoner exchange? Doesn't that necessarily return more forces to the separatist force pool (at least in relative terms) while not making and substantive increase in fighting power for Ukraine?

I would venture to say this offer will not be picked up.

The final point "Restoration of destroyed infrastructure." is the most telling. It implies a new status quo where the rebels rule in the regions they hold.

As puppets of Moscow, of course.

[Husar]

So, according to Husar and Sarmatian, one can't claim to be aware of the situation in the country if one is an outsider visiting it from time to time (as with Hax) or an insider living all his life in it all his life (as with me). It seems the best way to get to know a country is to never visit it, stay at home, and surf the internet.

Yes, with distance comes objectivity, that's why policemen can usually not solve murder cases if they have a strong emotional interest in them because they knew the victim or one of the suspects. It's less that you don't know anything and more that you cannot be trusted because you obviously favor one side regardless of who does what. Just like a policeman would be less likely to suspect his own friend even if a lot of the evidence pointed toward that friend. I also wouldn't claim to know how all Germans think and neither would I claim that we are all better people than the Dutch or the Poles. And if I did, you would do well not to trust me.

Regarding the ceasefire, the Russians denied that last I heard, meanwhile the USA and Britain have bullied France not to sell Russia the two helicopter carriers they were about to deliver. I also hear the press in Australia is full of warmongering rhetoric against Russia.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

In other news: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29052599

Looks like Russia won't be getting those assault ships from France for the foreseeable future.

[Viking]

I'm getting pretty tired of being right. Between what's about to happen in Iraq/Syria, and what's about to happen in Ukraine, people need to be paying attention. Don't forget about Chinese Air Defense Zone either. The possibility of a conventional war between Nuclear Powers, while totally absurd, seems to be what will happen shortly, and should such a war break out the entire world will try to take sides and wrangle the most out of it. The world may finally be numb to the threat of Nuclear War, assuming that no state has the cojones to do such a thing. Putin may even think he can engage the west in an actual war without nukes being used. I'd recommend people stop being partisan and recognize the problem: There's a bloc out there trying to change the status quo in a big way, and Putin is the muscle at the moment. If things continue to escalate, we may find out who the other players are in a bad way.

Keep an eye on the news, I suppose.

There is something very WW1-esque about what is happening in Europe now. The Russian Empire never completely dissolved. Republics like Chechnya and Ingushetia have their own more or less 'endemic' ethnic groups in a demographic majority*, and so Russia is far-far away from the nation states that Europe is mostly composed of today. Russia is more like the old order, where a 'master ethnic group' rules over several smaller ones.

Chechens insurgents, of course, fought wars for independence. Should Russia be involved a full-out war and not win it, I think a lot of other republics, too, could seek independence.

* some of those republics here:

Kalmykia (57.4% Kalmykians)
Tuva (82.0% Tuvans)
Chechnya (95.3% Chechens)
Ingushetia (94.1 Ingushes)
Tatarstan (53.2% Tatars)
Kabardino-Balkaria (57.2% Karbadays)
Karachay-Cherkessia (41.0% Karachays)

[Gilrandir]

I am wondering why no one has posted this today? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29042561

Apparently both Poroshenko and Putin seem to be positive about the possibility of cease fire. Of course such might ruin a good thread. :P

Whatever one may agree with Putin, he is not likely to honor the agreement. This he showed not once, namely in violating 1997 Ukrainain-Russian treaty in which he undertook to honor Ukraine's integrity in the borders of 1997.
But it seems to me that you don't understand the meaning of Putin's plan: by forwarding any plan he indirectly admits Russia's involvement in the conflict as the separatists don't offer THEIR plan different from this one. Does he speak on behalf of "Novorossia"? If not, will he be able to see to it that the separatists keep their promises (that is if any are made)?

Meanwhile, the shit of Russian dead soldiers (not volunteers, mind you, but conscripts and contracted professionals) brought from Ukraine has hit the fan:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/%D0%9...63463900366139
This is a facebook group (founded by a Russian woman) whose aim is to expose the cases of such homecoming although Russia is trying hard to suppress any news of them. The publications (or video coverage) on them sometimes manage to slip through the censorship in Russian media, albeit only in the local ones the central media being totally blind to suchlike topics.
It was estimated by the site creators that over 2000 Russian regular army soldiers have died in Ukraine since May (among them about 1100 in August alone).

Yes, with distance comes objectivity, that's why policemen can usually not solve murder cases if they have a strong emotional interest in them because they knew the victim or one of the suspects. It's less that you don't know anything and more that you cannot be trusted because you obviously favor one side regardless of who does what.

I believe that any news one hears provokes some emotion in him/her. You can't be totally indifferent to the facts you hear. This emotion is born at some early initial stage of discovering some news. Say, you hear that a group of protesters, who demanded from the legally elected ruler something which he doesn't want to do, was dispersed violently by the police. Your reaction based on your emotional attitude may be: "Serve them right" or "He shouldn't have done it". This initially installed filter funnels any update of the event you get into one of those two directions thus adding to it some stronger bias.

[Husar]

I believe that any news one hears provokes some emotion in him/her. You can't be totally indifferent to the facts you hear. This emotion is born at some early initial stage of discovering some news. Say, you hear that a group of protesters, who demanded from the legally elected ruler something which he doesn't want to do, was dispersed violently by the police. Your reaction based on your emotional attitude may be: "Serve them right" or "He shouldn't have done it". This initially installed filter funnels any update of the event you get into one of those two directions thus adding to it some stronger bias.

There isn't just black and white, but there is also a difference between being light grey and being dark grey on the scale.
And you also just said that your initial bias grew stronger with time, something I cannot honestly say.

[Kagemusha]

Whatever one may agree with Putin, he is not likely to honor the agreement. This he showed not once, namely in violating 1997 Ukrainain-Russian treaty in which he undertook to honor Ukraine's integrity in the borders of 1997.
But it seems to me that you don't understand the meaning of Putin's plan: by forwarding any plan he indirectly admits Russia's involvement in the conflict as the separatists don't offer THEIR plan different from this one. Does he speak on behalf of "Novorossia"? If not, will he be able to see to it that the separatists keep their promises (that is if any are made)?

Meanwhile, the shit of Russian dead soldiers (not volunteers, mind you, but conscripts and contracted professionals) brought from Ukraine has hit the fan:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/%D0%9...63463900366139
This is a facebook group (founded by a Russian woman) whose aim is to expose the cases of such homecoming although Russia is trying hard to suppress any news of them. The publications (or video coverage) on them sometimes manage to slip through the censorship in Russian media, albeit only in the local ones the central media being totally blind to suchlike topics.
It was estimated by the site creators that over 2000 Russian regular army soldiers have died in Ukraine since May (among them about 1100 in August alone).


I believe that any news one hears provokes some emotion in him/her. You can't be totally indifferent to the facts you hear. This emotion is born at some early initial stage of discovering some news. Say, you hear that a group of protesters, who demanded from the legally elected ruler something which he doesn't want to do, was dispersed violently by the police. Your reaction based on your emotional attitude may be: "Serve them right" or "He shouldn't have done it". This initially installed filter funnels any update of the event you get into one of those two directions thus adding to it some stronger bias.

Honor and realpolitiks do not mix. We have to remember that we are talking about politicians here. Poroshenko seems to be eager about the possible ceasefire. Meanwhile The Russian backed separatist seem to be making an all out push towards Mariupol. I bet they want to take the city before the possible ceasefire.