Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

.....And these are the guys accused of playing the entire world like a puppet, toppling regimes at will....

Yeah, right.

Not entire world, just a significant part and not playing and toppling but trying. Just because one does something, it doesn't mean one's automatically good at it. Case in point, Norwegians and football.

[HoreTore]

Not entire world, just a significant part and not playing and toppling but trying. Just because one does something, it doesn't mean one's automatically good at it.

Even in this very thread we have seen posts hinting that the resolution of the Ukraine crisis will be decided by these people. Not try to decide, but decide.

Case in point, Norwegians and football.

Who's trying?

[Husar]

The EU will act fast once the US congress passes a budget that lasts longer than a few months and isn't a few weeks late.

It's like Bob calling Cindy blue.

[GenosseGeneral]

Open battles on streets in Kyiv
That article does not fully cover it, but it gives you an idea what is going on there. And it seems to be not limited to one point (like it was on Jan. 20 and the follwoing days).
Reports include fatally wounded protestors, MVD troopers taken in captive and the speaker/head of parliament/president of parliament Rybak has suffered a breakdown. The Parliament building is evacuated.

This all rapidly since this morning, in about 9 am local time, a group of protestors tried to march to parliament to force it to formally introduce a law about returning to the constitution of 2004. This return was debated as a means to solve the crisis politically by limiting the president's power; however, the government did everything to delay the vote in parliament.

EDIT: The president is conferring with closest counsellors. We might see the declaration of martial law within the next hours. This would drown the protests in a bloodpath.

EDIT2: So far 3 protestors dead, 7 close to death, 300 wounded, medical personal from the opposition's main first aid-point say.

[Fragony]

Must say I don't believe this http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/20/wo...sts/index.html

As far as I know 20 dead comfirmed, don't know if that is true either.

[Sir Moody]

BBC reports 21 however as with any "live" news that number is subject to change

[Fragony]

Quite a bit, official number is now 64. This is getting even uglier, almost 70 police-officers have been taken hostage and something is comming up to release them. Screw it all, I am going to smoke a nice one and have a whiskey without a care in the world. FMW.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Wow, that was a fast escalation. I thought they had reached an agreement and that was the end of it. If government snipers are at work that is pretty scary. Equally the protestors look far from peaceful. I won't pass judgement I'll leave that to those who know the situation better.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

So what are the bets on this? Like Egypt or like Syria?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Wow, that was a fast escalation. I thought they had reached an agreement and that was the end of it. If government snipers are at work that is pretty scary. Equally the protestors look far from peaceful. I won't pass judgement I'll leave that to those who know the situation better.

EU travel and import/export bans: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26280710

So - Ukraine is rapidly going the way of Egypt, it appears.

The likelihood of Russian troops entering to "restore order" is approaching "1".

At this point it's a race - the EU has a small window left to calm the situation before Putin sends in the tanks to oust the current government and install and actual puppet.

Meanwhile, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are extremely glad they agreed to the join the EU already.

[Sarmatian]

EU travel and import/export bans: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26280710

Sanctions on import of repression tools (whatever that is) and travel bans for 20 people. In other words, nothing.

So - Ukraine is rapidly going the way of Egypt, it appears.

The likelihood of Russian troops entering to "restore order" is approaching "1".

At this point it's a race - the EU has a small window left to calm the situation before Putin sends in the tanks to oust the current government and install and actual puppet.

Meanwhile, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are extremely glad they agreed to the join the EU already.

If it continues, I see a breakup of the country, which is probably the best solution anyway. If the opposition gets what it wants, we're gonna have the exact same drama, just with reversed roles.

I already envisage EU and US officials stating how the protesters are getting violent, trying to overthrow democratically elected government and how that government must be supported against armed rebels and terrorists. All the major news media will start focusing on how well armed the rebels are and how many police officers were injured in violent attacks. It's gonna be hillarous.

[Beskar]

I already envisage EU and US officials stating how the protesters are getting violent, trying to overthrow democratically elected government and how that government must be supported against armed rebels and terrorists. All the major news media will start focusing on how well armed the rebels are and how many police officers were injured in violent attacks. It's gonna be hillarous.

Nono, the Western Governments will fund the rebels, then the Government sponsered by Russia will use chemical weapons. Then there is a big hoo-haa about how the weapons given by western governments will go into the hands of terrorists and Al-Qaeda...

Wait.. isn't similar a different conflict?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If it continues, I see a breakup of the country, which is probably the best solution anyway. If the opposition gets what it wants, we're gonna have the exact same drama, just with reversed roles.

I already envisage EU and US officials stating how the protesters are getting violent, trying to overthrow democratically elected government and how that government must be supported against armed rebels and terrorists. All the major news media will start focusing on how well armed the rebels are and how many police officers were injured in violent attacks. It's gonna be hillarous.

A breakup of the country is unlikely as neither the EU or Russia will support that, it allows for the breakup of other countries in Europe which make the political situation too "flexible."

Whilst I appreciate your cynicism, and you're right to by cynical, it's also not true that a pro-EU government would end up the same as the current one. For two reasons:

1. The EU cannot be seen to support an internally repressive regime on it's own doorstep - they can't even get away with that in Africa now, let alone Ukraine. It simply isn't practical politics, and any government looking for EU backing for these sorts of policies won't get it.

2. Remember, violent demonstrations started when the Ukraine re-oriented itself towards Russia and the president basically admitted this was because the Russians offered them more money. I don't think this is about EU vs Russia so much as the idea that Russia can (or cannot) but Ukrainian loyalty.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Hmm, so people want to turn Ukraine into another proxy war in the great Free West v Authoritarian East conflict? I would also be wary of arming Ukrainian rebels, they might not be influenced by ISIS but they don't exactly have a spotless history themselves.

Still I can't see things reaching the stage of Egypt, far less Syria. We have plenty of precedents for bloodless revolutions in recent Eastern European history.

[drone]

Well, good for the rebels. I doubt there are going to be any groups like ISIS trying to edge in on the Ukraine, so why not fund the rebels? Hell, fund the crap out of them. That's what Russia gets.

Danger zone!

[Beskar]

Hmm, so people want to turn Ukraine into another proxy war in the great Free West v Authoritarian East conflict? I would also be wary of arming Ukrainian rebels, they might not be influenced by ISIS but they don't exactly have a spotless history themselves.

So it is a toss between choosing which you would support out of Burkas and FEMEN ?

[Shaka_Khan]

The main part of anti-Russianism in Ukraine goes back to Stalin when he oppressed the entire Soviet Union with his extreme collectivism policy that was the cause for a nation-wide famine. Ukraine was the main sufferer of that policy. There was also Stalin's Great Purge in the Soviet Union. It was in fact Khrushchev who first condemned Stalin's purging policies in Khrushchev's Secret Speech to the Congress of the Communist Party (although Khrushchev originally supported Stalin during the Great Purge). You can find his speech on youtube. Many people misunderstand the old photos of Ukrainians cheering for German invaders during WWII. The Ukrainians had suffered under Stalin's policies before WWII, so they considered the Germans as liberators. There were actually a lot of Ukrainians who remained loyal to the Soviet Union. After experiencing German occupation, more Ukrainians joined the Soviet Union side in large numbers.

[Sarmatian]

A breakup of the country is unlikely as neither the EU or Russia will support that, it allows for the breakup of other countries in Europe which make the political situation too "flexible."

Depends on the situation, in my opinion. Russia needs Ukraine. Europe doesn't really need Ukraine, but doesn't want Russia to have it. Russia has a slightly better position. So, unless EU backs down, I see Russia calling their bets until the very end. The very end being the breakup of Ukraine.

Whilst I appreciate your cynicism, and you're right to by cynical, it's also not true that a pro-EU government would end up the same as the current one. For two reasons:

1. The EU cannot be seen to support an internally repressive regime on it's own doorstep - they can't even get away with that in Africa now, let alone Ukraine. It simply isn't practical politics, and any government looking for EU backing for these sorts of policies won't get it.

2. Remember, violent demonstrations started when the Ukraine re-oriented itself towards Russia and the president basically admitted this was because the Russians offered them more money. I don't think this is about EU vs Russia so much as the idea that Russia can (or cannot) but Ukrainian loyalty.

1). Of course it can not. That's why such a government will a priori be declared democratic, with the interest of the people at heart, wanting to lead them to freedom and democracy and the protesters will automatically become either rebels and terrorists.

Just like in Kosovo - government there was and is democratic. Human trafficking, drugs, murders, violence, destruction, ethnic cleansing, rampant corruption and an occasional kidney being sold under the counter can't change that.

2). That's what the west's been doing that all over the world for a very long time. Even before this mess, Ukraine was on verge of bankruptcy. What kept the economy from collapsing and people from freezing was Russian energy which they were getting for an extremely privileged price.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Depends on the situation, in my opinion. Russia needs Ukraine. Europe doesn't really need Ukraine, but doesn't want Russia to have it. Russia has a slightly better position. So, unless EU backs down, I see Russia calling their bets until the very end. The very end being the breakup of Ukraine.

I fail to see how Russia has a "better position" - in fact: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26284505

Russia stands more to lose, and are therefore Russia may send tanks.

1). Of course it can not. That's why such a government will a priori be declared democratic, with the interest of the people at heart, wanting to lead them to freedom and democracy and the protesters will automatically become either rebels and terrorists.

Just like in Kosovo - government there was and is democratic. Human trafficking, drugs, murders, violence, destruction, ethnic cleansing, rampant corruption and an occasional kidney being sold under the counter can't change that.

Such a government will lose said backing if it demonstrates it's can't resist killing protesters - doesn't play well in France or Germany when the EU is seen to back such people. As to Kosovo - it has been censured several times, but the West recognises self-determination and if Kosovo is a mess it's the fault of Serbia.

2). That's what the west's been doing that all over the world for a very long time. Even before this mess, Ukraine was on verge of bankruptcy. What kept the economy from collapsing and people from freezing was Russian energy which they were getting for an extremely privileged price.

The Arab spring showed the foolishness of the West backing dictators, and it is no longer palatable domestically. These days you need to be at least moderately democratic to get Western backing.

[HoreTore]

I've been browsing a few fascist forums lately - and they claim to have chased out "lefties" from Madian... I'm guessing "left" means anyone supporting democracy, whether conservative, liberal or socialist.

Fortunately, fascist forums are of course notoriously unreliable and I don't trust them for a second. Still, it's certainly worrisome if the protest movement now consists of skinheads wanting independence(isolation) and a strong Führer in charge...

[a completely inoffensive name]

I've been browsing a few fascist forums lately -

Find a hobby, son.

[HoreTore]

Find a hobby, son.

I actually call that part of my daily routine "work".

[Fisherking]

Well, if the US can’t manage a good war in Syria they are willing to jump in there too.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1I1AJ20140219

I guess he was listening here and decided it was no joke.

[Sarmatian]

I fail to see how Russia has a "better position" - in fact: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26284505

Russia stands more to lose, and are therefore Russia may send tanks.

Simple. It can offer a better deal to Ukraine and follow it through.

Let's look at the crux of the issue, without the traditional bollox about democracy and human rights.

Democratically elected government of the country made a foreign policy decision. A part of the population doesn't like that decision and they're doing anything they can to reverse it, including using violence and trying to take over institutions of the country forcibly. That's the exact opposite of a democratic principle, which would be to vote for someone else in the next elections. On the other hand, I totally agree with Lincoln that if the people don't like the government, they can exercise their democratic right to change it, or their revolutionary right to overthrow it.

The problem here is that this group doesn't represent all, or even the majority of population of Ukraine. Ukraine is a deeply divided country, and placating one group of protesters means another will rise up. If it isn't balanced, I don't find it totally unforeseeable for the country to be divided.

Such a government will lose said backing if it demonstrates it's can't resist killing protesters - doesn't play well in France or Germany when the EU is seen to back such people. As to Kosovo - it has been censured several times, but the West recognises self-determination and if Kosovo is a mess it's the fault of Serbia.

Riiiight. And that, children, is how you wash your hands.

The Arab spring showed the foolishness of the West backing dictators, and it is no longer palatable domestically. These days you need to be at least moderately democratic to get Western backing.

This isn't really about backing dictators. There are two currents of roughly equal strength. Both won the elections in the recent past, democratically for the most part. Previous government sought NATO membership, even though the support for that was less than 10% among the population. There were no mass protests or attempts at revolution. They just voted in a different government. If the current government in Kiev is overthrown now, and the course reset, I don't think the eastern part will again do nothing.

I've been browsing a few fascist forums lately - and they claim to have chased out "lefties" from Madian... I'm guessing "left" means anyone supporting democracy, whether conservative, liberal or socialist.

Fortunately, fascist forums are of course notoriously unreliable and I don't trust them for a second. Still, it's certainly worrisome if the protest movement now consists of skinheads wanting independence(isolation) and a strong Führer in charge...

The situation is ripe for extreme groups to get involved. This what they're waiting for, after all.

[Myth]

Sniper shooting at unarmed civilians.



A bunch of photos from yesterday got on facebook - dead bodies on both sides. But they have been taken down.

[Kagemusha]

I think the situation at Ukraine has several layers of problems and is extremely problematic to foreign powers. This could turn out to be extremely dangerous and in worst case scenario can escalate to full blown civil war. It is just not about citizens against the government, but also about factions within the country. If the Pro West rioters will be able to topple the government. I am quite sure we are going to witness a backlash from the Pro Russian elements, while the situation is very problematic to both EU and Russia, while both of the powers simply do not want a crisis in their relationship because of Ukraine. I think many do not understand how dangerous this crisis can turn out to be.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The main part of anti-Russianism in Ukraine goes back to Stalin when he oppressed the entire Soviet Union with his extreme collectivism policy that was the cause for a nation-wide famine. Ukraine was the main sufferer of that policy. There was also Stalin's Great Purge in the Soviet Union. It was in fact Khrushchev who first condemned Stalin's purging policies in Khrushchev's Secret Speech to the Congress of the Communist Party (although Khrushchev originally supported Stalin during the Great Purge). You can find his speech on youtube. Many people misunderstand the old photos of Ukrainians cheering for German invaders during WWII. The Ukrainians had suffered under Stalin's policies before WWII, so they considered the Germans as liberators. There were actually a lot of Ukrainians who remained loyal to the Soviet Union. After experiencing German occupation, more Ukrainians joined the Soviet Union side in large numbers.

Yet another example of the Nazis screwing the pooch. If they had been vaguely positive towards the Ukraine, much of it would have gone anti-Stalin and produced agro for the Germans while minimizing the need to interdict partisan efforts. Talk about ideology trumping common sense.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The latest word on developments in the Ukraine.

So, will this result in contested elections that are ultimately accepted, continued semi=-anarchy, or civil war?

[Sarmatian]

It is difficult to predict whether opposition leaders will be able to contain and pacify the protesters.

If they don't, the country may very well descend into violence and retribution towards those seen as collaborating with the previous regime which may bring civil war in the end. Seen it in Serbia in 2000, was very ugly but it was relatively unopposed as Milosevic by that time lost almost all support.

[Rhyfelwyr]

It is interesting that the President has moved out to Kharkiv, an eastern city where he will have a lot of support. Could this mean he is trying to establish a base for his faction to mount opposition to any new, pro-Western government?

I don't think this conflict it one of good v evil. Certainly, I would be concerned for the Russophone population if a pro-Western government took charge.