Ukraine-in-a-thread

[gaelic cowboy]

It is interesting that the President has moved out to Kharkiv, an eastern city where he will have a lot of support. Could this mean he is trying to establish a base for his faction to mount opposition to any new, pro-Western government?

I don't think this conflict it one of good v evil. Certainly, I would be concerned for the Russophone population if a pro-Western government took charge.

Far more likely he is runing for the hills before he is charged with basically being a kleptocrat.

All the best dictators have a petting zoo out the back of there gaff

[Sarmatian]

If it's kleptocracy what it's about, then you can safely lock up both pro western and pro russian ones. Preferably together.

Meanwhile, in eastern Ukraine...

“We, the local authorities of all levels, the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol region decided to take responsibility for ensuring the constitutional order and the rights of citizens on their territory,” their resolution said.

The Kharkov public gathering has announced a number of measures local authorities should take in response to the developments in Kiev. They should take full responsibility for all decision in respective regions with no regard to authorities in Kiev until the constitutional order in Ukraine is restored, a resolution of the gathering says.

They authorities should take measures to protect arms depots and prevent their take-over and looting by radical opposition activists.

The deputies have criticized the decision adopted by the Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) in the last few days, saying they are raising doubts about its legitimacy.

The gathering says the legislative acts may have been passed involuntary and are neither legitimate nor lawful.

The resent decisions of the national parliament were taken in conditions “of terror, threats of violence and death,” the resolution says.

"My colleagues and I have been personally threatened. But today we have gathered to change the situation,” he said. “We will not give in; we will fight till the end.”

The statement has been echoed by Rada’s Party of Regions deputy, Vadim Kolesnichenko, who also said that politicians are being threatened and “their families are basically hostages [of the situation].”

This may prove to be the worst move of the opposition so far. They won't have any control in the east, and have taken away any incentive Yanukovich might have had to deal with them. They're now rebels who performed a coup to oust legally and democratically elected president and government.

[HoreTore]

This may prove to be the worst move of the opposition so far. They won't have any control in the east, and have taken away any incentive Yanukovich might have had to deal with them. They're now rebels who performed a coup to oust legally and democratically elected president and government.

Careful now....

The rebels didn't perform a coup. Yanukovich was voted out by the parliament. That move was just as legal and democratic as his election.

[Sarmatian]

Careful now....

The rebels didn't perform a coup. Yanukovich was voted out by the parliament. That move was just as legal and democratic as his election.

Well, he wasn't elected by the parliament but rather but by majority of the citizens directly. Just because the citizens of the capital city are unhappy with him, that doesn't legitimize or legalize their actions. Even if we agree that the capital city represents the entire population, there still remains a big question - can parliament function democratically under threats of violence?

[HoreTore]

Well, he wasn't elected by the parliament but rather but by majority of the citizens directly. Just because the citizens of the capital city are unhappy with him, that doesn't legitimize or legalize their actions. Even if we agree that the capital city represents the entire population, there still remains a big question - can parliament function democratically under threats of violence?

Can you be considered a democratically elected president when you have used widespread fraud and jailed opposition candidates?

[Sarmatian]

Can you be considered a democratically elected president when you have used widespread fraud and jailed opposition candidates?

You mean, by the method used by every politician in Ukraine since the independence? Ideally, no. In reality, he's as legitimate and as democratically elected as every single one that came before him.

[rvg]

Yanukovich is a political corpse. He may agonize about what came to be and how it came to be, but as a politician he is finished. I am thankful to him for one thing: he didn't engage the military in this confrontation. Had the military gotten involved, things would have been a lot bloodier.

[HoreTore]

You mean, by the method used by every politician in Ukraine since the independence? Ideally, no. In reality, he's as legitimate and as democratically elected as every single one that came before him.

So.... Let's just skip the "democratically elected president"-thing altogether, shall we?

Yanukovich is a political corpse. He may agonize about what came to be and how it came to be, but as a politician he is finished. I am thankful to him for one thing: he didn't engage the military in this confrontation. Had the military gotten involved, things would have been a lot bloodier.

I imagine you said the same thing after the Orange revolution?

[rvg]

I imagine you said the same thing after the Orange revolution?

You imagine wrong.

[Sarmatian]

So.... Let's just skip the "democratically elected president"-thing altogether, shall we?

Fine if we agree that the opposition is exaclty the same as that regard. Now we're stuck with two undemocratically elected and corrupt regimes at odds with each other.

[HoreTore]

Fine if we agree that the opposition is exactly the same as that regard. Now we're stuck with two undemocratically elected and corrupt regimes at odds with each other.

Not sure I would go this far.....

[ICantSpellDawg]

I imagine you said the same thing after the Orange revolution?

After the Orange Revolution, it was a figure of speech. In the next few days it may be a factual statement.

Anyone who says that Revolutions cannot be fought and won with small arms should remind themselves that they can be won with sticks, stones, and petrol bombs.
Americans have the distinct right to keep and bear arms. Hopefully they will avail themselves of these rights while they still have a representative government and are able to. Civilian owned firearms rate is 6.6% in Ukraine and they've done this in 3 months. In the US, the civilian owned firearms rate it is 110%.

I'm just glad that I live in a country where non-violent protest, lawsuits, and reform is still possible.


BTW - you can always count on Sarmatian to defend totalitarian former soviet states. Like clockwork. Serbs see themselves as a tiny Soviet Union. They go nuts when satellite Slavs declare independence anywhere in the world.

[rvg]

BTW - you can always count on Sarmatian to defend totalitarian former soviet states. Like clockwork. Serbs see themselves as a tiny Soviet Union. They go nuts when satellite Slavs declare independence anywhere in the world.

Which is ironic considering how little Russia has actually done for Serbia. They talk a lot about friendship and brotherhood, but when time comes to walk the walk there's hardly anything to show.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

After the Orange Revolution, it was a figure of speech. In the next few days it may be a factual statement.

Anyone who says that Revolutions cannot be fought and won with small arms should remind themselves that they can be won with sticks, stones, and petrol bombs.
Americans have the distinct right to keep and bear arms. Hopefully they will avail themselves of these rights while they still have a representative government and are able to. Civilian owned firearms rate is 6.6% in Ukraine and they've done this in 3 months. In the US, the civilian owned firearms rate it is 110%.

I'm just glad that I live in a country where non-violent protest, lawsuits, and reform is still possible.


BTW - you can always count on Sarmatian to defend totalitarian former soviet states. Like clockwork. Serbs see themselves as a tiny Soviet Union. They go nuts when satellite Slavs declare independence anywhere in the world.

Congrats - you made this about you. It isn't.

The current Regime was dead the moment they employed Police Snipers. If there's anything to take away from this, it's that Ukraine has progressed far enough along the road to democracy that cops shooting people is no longer something that can happen without serious consequences.

Sarmation may feel that the Deputies voted to out the President because they were threatened, but all evidence is that even his own supporters are losing enthusiasm. pro-Kiev protests have broken out in the South and East and the Police are protecting them from pro-Russian counter-protesters.

The Ukrainians have worked it out - the guy who backs the West might not be great, but the guy who backs Russia has his important opponents locked up and the unimportant ones shot.

[ICantSpellDawg]

This is about all of us together in an abstract way making logical connections. Ukraine is just the latest example in a long line of economically depressed, devolving countries. Around the world, powerful interests are entrenching and people are beginning to realize that no one has any authority over anyone else. Ukrainians are economically disadvantaged and intelligent and as a result of their government's unwillingness to bend, it has broken.

All of these occurrences should teach everyone a lesson of what the future holds until governments embrace minarchism. I take it that because we live in the west, we should feel like we live "at the end of history" and are merely waiting for everyone to catch up to us? I don't buy that. Americans are just as prone to corruption and interested in power accumulation and abuse. Technology will just make it more lethal to protest against them.

[Husar]

Americans have the distinct right to keep and bear arms.

The thread title is Ukraine.

the guy who backs the West might not be great

"He" just looks great.

I like your analysis and sincerely hope it is true. If the majority of a country's population is not willing to tolerate dictatorial behaviour, that's usually a rather good sign.

[ICantSpellDawg]

In the U.S., lethal force would be warranted against protesters who were using the level of force that these protesters were using. Destruction of property and imminent threat of bodily harm causes police to open fire in public places, often killing subjects and pedestrians for much less than throwing petrol bombs and shooting at police. The US government would have acted more brutally within the first few days of a similar protest. I was actually blown away by the restraint of the Ukrainian government over the last 3 months, as corrupt as they were.

Additionally, the order to use lethal force came well after sporadic government fire opened up on protesters. It has been argued that the government gave this order after the situation had spiraled completely out of control in a manner intended to reclaim some legitimacy and control over police who were acting like scared grade-schoolers by that point.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The thread title is Ukraine.



"He" just looks great.

I like your analysis and sincerely hope it is true. If the majority of a country's population is not willing to tolerate dictatorial behaviour, that's usually a rather good sign.

I saw Tymoshenko - the two and a half years in prison have not been kind.

Whatever she may have done, and she's not squeaky clean, she was locked up BECAUSE she was a political problem.

So while I don't blame Sarmation for his Cynicism, I think this is more about the abuse of Power the current President has undertaken. We know the next President will have less power, whoever he is. The current one is definitely toast, after they broke into his compound and discovered him living like a King.

In the U.S., lethal force would be warranted against protesters who were using the level of force that these protesters were using. Destruction of property and imminent threat of bodily harm causes police to open fire in public places, often killing subjects and pedestrians for much less than throwing petrol bombs and shooting at police. The US government would have acted more brutally within the first few days of a similar protest. I was actually blown away by the restraint of the Ukrainian government over the last 3 months, as corrupt as they were.

Additionally, the order to use lethal force came well after sporadic government fire opened up on protesters. It has been argued that the government gave this order after the situation had spiraled completely out of control in a manner intended to reclaim some legitimacy and control over police who were acting like scared grade-schoolers by that point.

I have consistently said that the US is governed like a Third World Country, and I stand by that.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Statues of Lenin toppled:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26306737

Looks like the Kievan Russ are sending the Muscovites a clear message.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I have consistently said that the US is governed like a Third World Country, and I stand by that.

Then why would you demean the connection that I was trying to make? I suggest that authorities all over the world become paranoid when they see these things happen. The riots and protests that have been sweeping the eurasian/north african region are metastatic and getting closer to our own capitals by the day. Neglect of this reality suggests western "end of history" chauvanism. Lessons should be learned now, before we are forced to learn them in the field.

[Montmorency]

Don't imagine that the factors that encouraged uprisings in the European periphery are extant in Western Europe or even the US - it's pure fantasy.

Even more fantastic than the notion that protests in the world are driven by "minarchism" or "devolution".

Go back to Tweeting about Tibor Machan or whatever.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Protesters breached the private estate of the now ex-president and took pictures of it all. The dude had a really nice place.

[Kagemusha]

After the Orange Revolution, it was a figure of speech. In the next few days it may be a factual statement.

Anyone who says that Revolutions cannot be fought and won with small arms should remind themselves that they can be won with sticks, stones, and petrol bombs.
Americans have the distinct right to keep and bear arms. Hopefully they will avail themselves of these rights while they still have a representative government and are able to. Civilian owned firearms rate is 6.6% in Ukraine and they've done this in 3 months. In the US, the civilian owned firearms rate it is 110%.

I'm just glad that I live in a country where non-violent protest, lawsuits, and reform is still possible.


BTW - you can always count on Sarmatian to defend totalitarian former soviet states. Like clockwork. Serbs see themselves as a tiny Soviet Union. They go nuts when satellite Slavs declare independence anywhere in the world.

Lol! Civilians can outfight an organized army. Really give me a break will you...Put some US civilians with their semi autos against company of regular army or Marines with indirect fire support and all you will see is lots of dead civilians and fire support is not even needed.

Only way revolutions will happen is that the authorities that have the real monopoly of violence refuse to use or hamper themselves in using full force. Your statement is simply ridiculous. Yes civilians can make life hard for soldiers, but that is that, nothing more.

And just to keep repeating myself. What we are witnessing is not a simple revolution, but a pro western faction taking over by force. While they dont by far represent the whole country and dont have such support. It may sound fine and dandy in partisan political rhetoric that a peoples revolution is happening in Ukraine and while its the pro western faction taking over it is somehow "good" guys taking over, but you really need to take a second look to understand the full situation..

[a completely inoffensive name]

And just to keep repeating myself. What we are witnessing is not a simple revolution, but a pro western faction taking over by force. While they dont by far represent the whole country and dont have such support. It may sound fine and dandy in partisan political rhetoric that a peoples revolution is happening in Ukraine and while its the pro western faction taking over it is somehow "good" guys taking over, but you really need to take a second look to understand the full situation..

Isn't every revolution some faction taking over by force? There was a fair percentage of the population in the colonies that were loyalists when the US Revolution occurred...

[Kagemusha]

Isn't every revolution some faction taking over by force? There was a fair percentage of the population in the colonies that were loyalists when the US Revolution occurred...

This is not a rhetoric but real life. If this will go down south as i am afraid it will. The Eastern and Western part of Ukraine will be soon in war and at that point who is "right" or "wrong" does not mean anything when we will be witnessing a human tragedy at really disturbing level. While EU and Russia will be in a really difficult spot and US just cant sail to Black Sea and cruise missile everything back to stone age bringing "freedom" in the process.

[Fragony]

Can someone explain to ignorant me how there is such a thing as a western and a Russian part. I have been watching this with amazement, I have no idea what's going on over there.

[a completely inoffensive name]

This is not a rhetoric but real life. If this will go down south as i am afraid it will. The Eastern and Western part of Ukraine will be soon in war and at that point who is "right" or "wrong" does not mean anything when we will be witnessing a human tragedy at really disturbing level. While EU and Russia will be in a really difficult spot and US just cant sail to Black Sea and cruise missile everything back to stone age bringing "freedom" in the process.

All uprisings and revolutions are tragic. They are, by definition, the result of a collapsing state. There was never a conflict where the sides played out like a Tolkien book. But that does not mean that we should have tried our best to prevent this conflict from happening or that we should refuse to pick sides. Personally, if there really is such a staunch divide between west Ukraine and east, I would support simply dividing the two and erring on the side of self determination.

[HoreTore]

I think it's been proven thoroughly over the last dozen years that while the power of poorly armed and poorly trained people isn't enough to win all the time, it is certainly enough to win.

No. The "power" of poorly armed and trained people is never enough to win. However, they may die in such numbers that the powers that be gets tired of killing them, as is what happened in Ukraine.

[Ironside]

Can someone explain to ignorant me how there is such a thing as a western and a Russian part. I have been watching this with amazement, I have no idea what's going on over there.

Think Wallonia and Flanders. Very different historical backround of course, but the same principle of a division within a country.

ICantSpellDawg, to give a few scenarios:

Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "No". Usually a revolution. Gun ownage irrellevant.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "Sure thing". Very bloody suppression. Gun ownage insuffient.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "Sure thing", but they lack a large enough army. Civil war. Gun ownage matters.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players splits and say both "No and Sure thing". Civil war. Gun ownage matters, but less the stronger the the army is.

What it tells you are that if you don't have an army that can massacre your own population, gun ownage is irrelevant. And that the US, with its very strong army is a country were gun ownage matters little, because the US military strength will overshadow the civilian gun ownership.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Really tired of this hypothetical coming up all the time. You really have no idea how effective an armed populace will be until an actual revolution happens. Talking about what would happen is the equivalent to talking about the results of hypothetical wars. We don't all sit around and speak confidently about the tactics that would be used in a US-China fight, the amount of people that would die on each side and who would win in what amount of time and then go, "Yep and that is what would happen, your suggestion is wildly unrealistic!".

Give it a rest guys.