Ukraine Thread

[spmetla]

That's the whole problem, if Russia can create a situation that would cause member states to doubt their support if the defense clause is enacted the whole NATO and EU enterprise could be shattered. Most Americans don't even know Estonia exists much less that it's an ally we'd need to defend, a muppet like Trump would have wide support for withdrawing to the continental US and leaving Europe to defend itself. France and Germany are no where near prepared for squaring off with Russia or its proxies not politically or militarily.

[spmetla]

Would Trump walk away from NATO
http://www.dw.com/en/would-a-trump-a...ato/a-19475314

Germany calls for calm amid growing crimea tensions
http://www.dw.com/en/germany-russia-...ine/a-19475852

[Husar]

That's the whole problem, if Russia can create a situation that would cause member states to doubt their support if the defense clause is enacted the whole NATO and EU enterprise could be shattered. Most Americans don't even know Estonia exists much less that it's an ally we'd need to defend, a muppet like Trump would have wide support for withdrawing to the continental US and leaving Europe to defend itself. France and Germany are no where near prepared for squaring off with Russia or its proxies not politically or militarily.

Or economically.
In which case you might also want to ask how Russia can afford that.
The country is almost bankrupt and depends on us buying its gas. On the other hand we depend on Russia delivering said gas, especially during winter. And that's just one area of trade and business cooperation. If Putin attacks Latvia or Estonia and doesn't even hide it, he attacks the EU and then we either do something or risk the EU completely falling apart. If there were to be an actual war between Russia and the EU, I'd guess all bets are off. Whether the British would just want to sit there and do nothing, EU membership or not, is a debatable question and Poland has quite a sizeable army, too. It's not just France and Germany, especially Poland would probably want to stop Russia sooner rather than later.

But that war is not just a military thing, because what happens after it? Imagine Putin wins and the armies of Germany, France, the UK and Poland plus a few others are all in shambles. Then what? He probably just lost all income from trade with the EU, his army probably took an enormous amount of losses and several EU countries such as Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Spain, Portugal are still left with their armies. Does he go on and conquer more or just wait until the hurt kicks in because he just lost his biggest trade partner and made 500 million people very angry? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26436291

Also consider the scenario where the EU actually does stand together and Russia is not the superpower it once was anymore, the armies of Europe combined would not only rather large in size, but also comparatively more modern and actually quite varied. In a scenario where the EU would actually fight back I don't quite see what Putin could gain, especially since even Trump may get into trouble for just watching that from a distance.

The other option is that the EU falls apart and we start WW3 sooner or later. The End.

[Lizardo]

Putin is very concerned. Seems like sam Ukrainian Spec ops who tried to ambush yankovich but failed great and dark times we are in my friends.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

This was missing black helicopters.

And tinfoil.

[Lizardo]

What ukraine has done is an act of war

[spmetla]

Also consider the scenario where the EU actually does stand together and Russia is not the superpower it once was anymore, the armies of Europe combined would not only rather large in size, but also comparatively more modern and actually quite varied. In a scenario where the EU would actually fight back I don't quite see what Putin could gain, especially since even Trump may get into trouble for just watching that from a distance.

The other option is that the EU falls apart and we start WW3 sooner or later. The End.

I understand your point. Putin has made clear that he doesn't seem to mind his economy tanking so long as he can maintain his domestic support base. All hardships are pointed at the evil West. I know that Russia's military isn't so good that it can sustain military operations too far beyond its borders right now, especially with a country like Poland that takes its national defense seriously next door.

I don't think Putin is quite so stupid as to blatantly attack the Baltic States but do think he'll create some sort of situation there that will draw a line in the sand and demonstrate whether NATO/EU are paper tigers or not.

Hate making the Hitler comparison but remember that he never expected France and the UK to actually go to war with him over Poland. He assumed they too were paper tigers and would instead debate about war endlessly. Saddam didn't think the US was going to invade him in 2003 without a clear resolution form the UN Security Council. Strongman politics is always gambling and trying to call bluffs. I think that Putin believes he can obtain his goal of dismantling or shrinking NATO/EU without having to actually resort to a large war but that type of gambling can very well lead to WW3. Obama's declaration that Nukes would only be used in retaliation to nukes and never be used as first means that the defeating the US in a conventional fight does not mean we'd go nuclear to makeup for that defeat or shortfall which has severally limited the effectiveness of it as a deterrent to conventional military threats.

Also, just to explain myself. I don't see WW3 around the corner but do worry that our fickle leadership right now could set the conditions that might lead to it.

[Gilrandir]

Again, what I never read in these analyses is that an attack on an EU country would not only trigger a NATO defense clause but also an EU one.

Are there EU armed forces?

If Putin attacks Latvia or Estonia and doesn't even hide it, he attacks the EU and then we either do something or risk the EU completely falling apart.

The answer is:

I don't think Putin is quite so stupid as to blatantly attack the Baltic States

As he showed in Crimea and later in Donbas, he will pretend any insignialess military men in Estonia (or anywhere else) are local militias who protect the oppressed Russian-speakers.

What ukraine has done is an act of war

Do you believe anything Putin says? There are a lot of inconsistencies in Russia's side of the story which make it a fake.

[Greyblades]

Are there EU armed forces?

little known fact is that putin is kept from invading through the prospects of fighting the swedish and austrian armies.

[Lizardo]

Do you believe anything Putin says? There are a lot of inconsistencies in Russia's side of the story which make it a fake.

How is Ukrainian Media spinning it then total silence? And no i don't sometime's i notice what Putin says doesnt add up like this video Putin is bullshitting us,Putin is deflecting saying western propaganda I also know for a fact Russia is extending its border miles within striking distance to the trans caucaus pipeline swallowing up georgian territory and moving barbed wire border fences into georgia, but this situation with ukraine sending special forces units into crimea i totally believe. It's just something they would do because they destroyed powerlines to crimea before.

[Gilrandir]

How is Ukrainian Media spinning it then total silence?

Do you mean Ukrainian media are totally silent about the incident? How do you know?

Ukrainian media are full of it.

but this situation with ukraine sending special forces units into crimea i totally believe. It's just something they would do because they destroyed powerlines to crimea before.

You may believe whatever you like and you may as well say that Russia invaded Ukraine in August 2014 so it would do it again in August 2016.

The most flagrant inconsistensies/stupidities of what Russia spins are:
1. After the incident had happened Russia was silent for three days and only then came up with the story you believe so much. What took it so long to present the facts if there were any? In other cases Russia's reaction is prompt.

2. According to Russia, a group of 15 saboteurs (sometimes they make it 20) with KALASHNIKOVS in RUSSIAN MILITARY UNIFORM broke through border fences in Crimea being supported by INTENSE ARTILLERY FIRE from over the border. Their purpose was to organize a series of explosions to destabilize situation in Crimea and RUIN THE TOURIST SEASON.

a) When they showed the first captured "saboteur" he was wearing a T-shirt. Did they allow him to change to spoil a perfect picture? And the T-shirt he was wearing was his regular one he wore working in his garage (by admission of his brother). Did he take it with him under the uniform to change back into it once the border was crossed?

b) Is this the way saboteurs penetrate into the territory of the enemy? Wouldn't they rather do it as ordinary tourists and later stick to their hidious plan? And why do saboteurs need Kalashnikovs?

c) If there was artillery fire, why no shell craters were exhibited to the public?

d) One should be very smart to ruin the tourist season IN AUGUST when it is drawing to the end (well, if you could call it a season with 1.5 million tourists compared to 6 million in 2013).

3. Russia claimed the group was headed by Ukrainian intelligence officers never exhibiting any. All they showed to the public was three Ukrainians who suited the role of saboteurs perfectly: the first had taken part in Maidan and in fighting in Donbas, the second had been born in Lviv (although he was a Crimea resident, twice served his prison terms on criminal charges before 2014, now and then went to work to Moscow as a builder, supported the annexation and was generally pro-Russian) and the third was a Tatar (arrested two months before, by the admission of his relatives).

4. The things "the saboteurs" had carried with them included (among the other stuff) a rusty pistol and several packages of ground red pepper (of course, written in Ukrainian on it).

5. When Russian TV showed the footage of capturing "the saboteurs" there was something wrong with the moon phase. You can't read it (I assume), but look at the pictures:
http://fakeoff.org/freak-show/ochere...oy-provokatsii

On balance, the likeliest version of what had happened is:

There was a conflict with shooting among Russian military deployed in Northern Crimea in which a FSB officer was killed. Some say there was a brawl between the former Ukrainian military who changed sides in 2014 and the genuine Russian ones (who upbraided the former for betraying the oath). Others say there was a conflict between Russian military and FSB. Anyway, the story of saboteurs was invented to cover up for unsavoury truth and rev up anti-Ukranian hysteria. And to be believed by unwary foreigners.

[Lizardo]

Thanks, very interesting however there is a desire in Ukrainian + Western political circles to commence the war in the east, if Putin wanted to push on in Eastern Ukraine this incident would be a legitimate reason. But i see a stalemate is in Russia interest? But ukraine is a great scapegoat atm. A flare up in conflict may derail the removal of sanctions

[Gilrandir]

there is a desire in Ukrainian + Western political circles to commence the war in the east,

As the events of the last 2 and a half years showed, the West has been doing everything to avoid any war at any price, including pushing Ukraine into any peace treaty. Ukraine has been trying to avoid war since August 2014 (though with a different motivation) when Russian regular army interfered into Donbas fighting.

[Greyblades]

Does the ukraine have any relationship with turkey? As much as a prick Edrogan is they are militarily strong and belligerent towards russia, seems like ideal allies for the Ukraine.

[Gilrandir]

Does the ukraine have any relationship with turkey? As much as a prick Edrogan is they are militarily strong and belligerent towards russia, seems like ideal allies for the Ukraine.

On the one hand, Turkey has always been a supporter of their Turkic brethren in Crimea (Tatars) who were against the annexation. So officially, Turkey took the side of Ukraine in the conflict. On the other hand, inofficially, Turkish ships continue to enter the Crimean ports who are ostensibly under sanctions and thus must be a no-go zone. After Turks had shot down the Russian plane and Russia had imposed sanctions on Turkish vegetables and fruit together with stopping all tourist flow to Turkey, there was a hope that Ukraine and Turkey may draw closer in opposing Russia. However, Erdogan evidently felt snubbed by Europe and the USA and Turkish resort facilities suffered greatly because of the abscence of Russian tourists. So Erdogan went to Putin with his tail between the legs. Such an ally would be too fickle for Ukraine to rely on.

[Gilrandir]

Once again on how "civil" is the war in Ukraine:
http://bunews.com.ua/politics/item/p...-conversations

And the reaction of the main characters of the story:
http://www.meganewsweb.com/en/news/b...zevym-po-krymu

[Montmorency]

[Montmorency]

A little translation (last third) to help the joke along:



There's no more Moskovskaya (vodka) or table vodka, not for a while. This is Russia, they've replaced it with a knockoff.

[but at least they have State Wine] ?

With every year it's better to be alive. One can even save up [double entendre: 'drink away'] money if you leave some of the vodka for the morning.

Because vodka (citizen-bros, let's give up vodka from now on, starting today)

Oh how great it is to be sober in the morning (Honestly, citizens).

It's like with Hamlet: to drink or not to drink, that is the question.

Oh vodka, we can't forget you.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

As the events of the last 2 and a half years showed, the West has been doing everything to avoid any war at any price, including pushing Ukraine into any peace treaty. Ukraine has been trying to avoid war since August 2014 (though with a different motivation) when Russian regular army interfered into Donbas fighting.

Only a war in which we might take casualties. If you can arrange the other kind, you'd get a much heartier response.

[Gilrandir]

Only a war in which we might take casualties. If you can arrange the other kind, you'd get a much heartier response.

I know. Why die for Danzig.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Don't mistake me. I think NATO should have pushed the issue, mobilized, and issued war warnings. I have little faith that Putin respects anything short of same. However, NATO is not a unified entity by any means and it was clear that there was little support for initiating, or at least credibly threatening, a border war with Russia.

[Gilrandir]

On how nazi Right Sector are:
http://ukropnews24.com/in-dobrobat-y...rst-synagogue/
A neccessary comment: there is no more Right Sector of 2014 type: about a year ago it split into Right Sector and Ukrainian Volunteer Army the latter being headed by the former Right Sector leader Dmytro Yarosh.

[Gilrandir]

DNR and LNR are among top violent non-state actors:
https://www.statista.com/chart/5918/...-state-actors/

[Gilrandir]

The MH 17 report:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/28/eu...17-buk-russia/

Everything Bellingcat claimed a year (or even more) ago was corroborated by the official investigation.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The MH 17 report:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/28/eu...17-buk-russia/

Everything Bellingcat claimed a year (or even more) ago was corroborated by the official investigation.

It's 28/09/2016 and Putin is still a Fascist and Liar.

The fact it was returned to Russia the next day is most suspicious.

[Gilrandir]

It's 28/09/2016 and Putin is still a Fascist and Liar.

The fact it was returned to Russia the next day is most suspicious.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/28/op...eotti-opinion/

[Gilrandir]

I came across a very interesting article by the Russian war historian (and plane engineer by profession) Mark Solonin on why Buk was brought from Russia to Donbas.
He draws attention to some very curious facts about it.
1. Buk was not adequate for the tasks of bringing down Ukranian military planes. In MTW terms, it was like sending a Janissary heavy infantry unit to deal with a unit of peasants. Russian army is equipped with at least 4 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile systems (Osa, Tor, Tunguska and Pantsyr) whose range of fire is 8-12 km and altitude of fire - 5-6 km, which is more than enough to empty the sky from infrasonic Su-26 or as old as the hills transport plane An-26. Such systems total about 1,5 units in the Russian army.
Buk, on the other hand, is a very expensive and much less numerous system whose range of fire is 35 km and altitude range - 22 km and which is able to hit targets moving at 2,6 sound velocity. It seems too overpowered and expensive for the tasks of countering Ukranian military aviation.
2. It seems strange that only one Buk was brought. It is against military routine procedures which don't measure weapon systems in units, but in detachments. The army commanders would think in regiments, companies, platoons, squadrons etc, but not in individual units.
3. The Buk came being accompanied by no transportation loading vehicle which means that it could use only four missiles it was equipped with.

All of those make him think that it was not an army operation. It looked more like special service scheme.

4. To reach its destination (which is 60 km from the border) it took the Buk 2 days and it made a circuit of 250 km with a prolonged stop in Donetsk. Being placed at the destination it could have hardly been meant to cover the separatists positions behind it since those positions where close to the Russian-Ukranian border, so the task could have easily (and quite safely) been achieved by placing the same Buk on the Russian side of the border.
5. Stopping in Donetsk it was waiting for the tanks of the separatists' Vostok detachment (as the intercepted communications between the separatists show). The tanks never came, so the Buk moved the way it did.
6. The route of the Russian passenger plane SU 2074 Moscow-Larnaca over Ukraine had been changed twice (on July 14 and 15) giving the fighting zone a birth to the east and to the west respectively. But on July 16 and 17 (when the Buk was out on the drive around Donetsk) the plane route was plotted in the direct line few km aside from the fighting zone.

In view of all these facts, Solonin hypothesizes that the Buk came to Ukraine with the initial purpose of bringing down the Russian passenger plane. To accuse Ukraine of it, it was to be done from the territory controlled by Ukraine. At that time there was no proper front line but rather the roads were controlled by checkpoints but off roads both parties' troops (and tracked military vehicles) could roam at will. So Vostok's tanks were to have escorted the Buk to the place where its range was enough to reach the plane and then escort the Buk back. Since the tanks didn't come and the Buk personnel by the end of the second day was "tired and nervous", to put it mildly (as the intercepted communications show they even "lost" one of their crew members and had to search for him), they just decided to shoot down at least something and go quickly back the hell out of Donbas.

[Fragony]

Hmmm it looks the assocation treaty is comming anyway, sorry Gilrandir you are so fucked, it wasn't me. Have a nice proxy-war and send us your babes please. You can come as well. Nobody has read what's in it meh, only non-quality media did

[Gilrandir]

Hmmm it looks the assocation treaty is comming anyway, sorry Gilrandir you are so fucked, it wasn't me.

I have my own opinion as to whether Ukraine will win or lose by having the AA with the EU. The same as on Brexit. And both are different from yours.

Have a nice proxy-war and send us your babes please.

You mean that without the AA we wouldn't have the proxy-war and wouldn't export babies to the EU?

You can come as well.

Do you think I can only come if the AA is signed? And why would you need me over there?

What I think is that you meant visa-free traveling, not the AA.

[Gilrandir]

Some blackmailing on Russia's part?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...m-in-swipe-at/