Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

It's not like you would expect a communist overthrowing of the government to suceed in Mexico without the US attempting a counter-coup or an invasion.

And biting off some Mexican state? I doubt it.

By now the entire situation is a train wreck and I'll be happy with any solution that doesn't end up with half of Europe getting nuked

Your wish is granted. We have tried now any solutions and no one is nuked. The problem is Putin doesn't agree to have any of the offered. And he is likely to push the game further and further. So it will all eventually boil down to agreeing to his solution. And no one is nuked again.

All the West does is talk down to Russia, but the Russians are proud people, much like us, I tend to think that an approach where we don't act like their parents will work better than trying to subdue them with force, threats and so on.

The West may talk foul to/about Putin, but acts nice and slow. Putin, as it turned out, sets little store by talking, negotiations, threats, treaties, promises... And the way the West has been acting so far convinces him that he can keep doing what he was, perhaps with a little adjustment now and then.

It may work for the time being if you go far enough, but consider that they may hate us for it for decades to come...

It is what Putin has done to Russians and Ukrainians.

As for 'the West is only talking down to Putin', he still has enough support even among the population to stay in power, those segments of the population do not like it if we disrespect their president.

Ciausescu had 85-90% support the night before he was lynched. So much for the accuracy of Russian polls.

If Putin doesn't get reelected for having lost a war and being too weak, which seems to be the plan for some here, then who will the Russians elect instead? Someone who is even more of a strongman?

If in 1945 the West had the same ideas of Hitler, would they have tried to keep him in power?

If a unit of separatists is breaking the ceasefire at the frontline and Putin wants to stop them he can do that by fighting them way behind the frontlines? How, if they are all on the frontline breaking the ceasefire?

They would shoot not ACROSS the front line, but behind it, thus it is not the shoot out between the beligerents that were parties to the Minsk agreement.

[Viking]

Let me help you out, it's right after your quote:

He exaggerated the numbers and their preparations, yes, maybe there was seeping in of russian troops, but it was not the invasion he wanred of or Ukraine would probably be 100% part of Russia by now.

"The experts" = "several european intelligence services"? This isn't math I am familiar with. The article doesn't preclude that some intelligence services agree with his assessments.

There are two claims, first Hodges claimed that there was direct Russian involvement, which is what the intelligence services found weird as they had apparently no evidence at that point in time when he claimed it.

One intelligence agency is cited: BND.

Pretty much the three places apart from Russia and immediate surroundings where they have almost none...
http://forusa.org/sites/default/file...ilexpan117.jpg

For a map like that, definitions are everything. Tweak the definitions slightly, and you can potentially end up with a radically different map. You'll notice that every continent has indicated a presence of some sort.

“Nope” Well. According the map of NATO bases, yes. And on line articles such as http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ary-bases.html

Nonetheless, they have none there. You'll notice that Russia itself has some light military presence in Kazakhstan (PDF).

But all right, at least you don’t deny the rest.

Rather, I have to start somewhere. To my knowledge, neither the US nor any other non-Eastern European NATO country has a permanent military presence in Eastern Europe; only rotational forces. As far as I can see, the US has also been decreasing its European presence - before Putin started to annex things, that is.

The reasons why as well as the nature of the American military presence vary wildly between the countries in the list. With this in mind, the list forms no coherent argument on its own.

So, in term of Geo-strategy, even without Kazakhstan, you can recognise that [...] NATO/USA/EU upsetting Russia, and this immediately after the collapse of USSR.

Only if Putin is a very sensitive and frightened man can I can recognise that. But judging by the pictures, he's supposed to be macho..

Russia has been weak after the USSR dissolved. Putin has gradually strengthened it, and would have been able to continuing doing so hadn't he started his current Ukrainian project. Any attack on Russia should happened immediately after the dissolution of the USSR, when it was at its most weakest. Until recently, any such attack made less and less sense for every day that passed as Russia grew stronger.

“From the fight against the Taliban after the WTC attacks.” & “WWII”: So? They don’t count as US bases?

It's kind of hard to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan without having bases there.

[...] why do you need bases around it [...]

That the US is intentionally attempting to encircle Russia with military bases is the claim, not a fact to deduce new conclusions from.

[Husar]

And biting off some Mexican state? I doubt it.

Different superpower, different approach. Installing a friendly government more or less gives you the entire country without having to bit it all off. Putin had that in Ukraine, the people even voted the friendly government in. Now some tried to take it away from him in a move that destabilized the country and gave him tho opportunity to do what he did and does now. The US used the terror and nonexistant WMDs arguments to topple a government in a country far away from their own borders. It's what super powers do. You give them the slightest excuse and they try to further their own interests as far as they can. China is currently biting off islands that Japan wants to have as well.

Your wish is granted. We have tried now any solutions and no one is nuked. The problem is Putin doesn't agree to have any of the offered. And he is likely to push the game further and further. So it will all eventually boil down to agreeing to his solution. And no one is nuked again.

Yes, and what remains of Ukraine will not have a lot of angry pro-Russians anymore and can safely do the whole EU mating dance that the British and the Dutch cheer them for because we all love the EU so much.

The West may talk foul to/about Putin, but acts nice and slow. Putin, as it turned out, sets little store by talking, negotiations, threats, treaties, promises... And the way the West has been acting so far convinces him that he can keep doing what he was, perhaps with a little adjustment now and then.

Yes, I'm confident that you know Putin's convictions far better than the people who negotiate with him in person.

It is what Putin has done to Russians and Ukrainians.

And therefore we should do it to all Russians? Because two wrongs make a right or because the situations are totally comparable?

Ciausescu had 85-90% support the night before he was lynched. So much for the accuracy of Russian polls.

I didn't know that he was Russian.

If in 1945 the West had the same ideas of Hitler, would they have tried to keep him in power?

I didn't know that Hitler was up for reelection in 1945.

They would shoot not ACROSS the front line, but behind it, thus it is not the shoot out between the beligerents that were parties to the Minsk agreement.

But it would be enough to scare a photographer who would tweet about fighting at the frontlines and therefore justify a full NATO war against Russia.

[Brenus]

“and no one does - except, perhaps, Brenus the Seer” Err, a part you, everybody knows as it is impossible to enforce. Fantasy, again.

“so maybe it is time to try something else, no?” What about getting out of propaganda and go to negotiation based on reality and respect?

“Remind us, how many lives were lost during the malicious base-planting process? And compare against what was and is going on in Ukraine.” : Irrelevant as I was speaking of who is menacing the other. However, few figures: For Kosovo only: around 5000, followed by ethnic cleansing of few 100,000 Serbs. Afghanistan, a million, more? So still to go for Ukraine…

“Now remind us, how many Nato's flank attacks against Russia happened and compare it against Russia's attacks in Transdniestria, Abkhasia, South Ossetia, Chechnya and now Ukraine.” Again irrelevant, but it is not the first time: Firstly, none of these regions are countries, but regions of others countries. And even if they were, it wouldn't be a menace against NATO.
Second, no Russian aggression, No Russian Air Force attacking on the grounds, but break away from the main country, for most of them, Chechnya still being part of Russia as you didn’t stop to claim that Chechnya sent (Russian) soldiers in Ukraine, as usual without the beginning of a proof. I am almost sure you can buy some passports to show on TV, com’on, make an effort. You, as usual, don’t care of facts.

“Nato did it once”: Bosnia, Croatia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and of course Iraq, Syria, Libya. And if we count the NATO auxiliary France, Chad, and others African Countries.

[Brenus]

"Rather, I have to start somewhere. To my knowledge, neither the US nor any other non-Eastern European NATO country has a permanent military presence in Eastern Europe; only rotational forces. As far as I can see, the US has also been decreasing its European presence - before Putin started to annex things, that is.
The reasons why as well as the nature of the American military presence vary wildly between the countries in the list. With this in mind, the list forms no coherent argument on its own."
If I was a Russian remembering the few millions of dead from WW2, I would make a coherent argument just in looking at a map: They are all around me, they are telling I am an enemy, and they are coming every day near the borders with their weapons. Hum, what shall I do? And oof course in the fact that NATO had started all major illegal conflicts in the last quarter of century...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“Ukraine happened.”Oops, you forgot few steps, as US missiles in Poland, NATO attack on Serbia, building of US bases all around Russia (Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Georgia, Turkey, Baltic States, Japan, South Korea, Bulgaria, Romania, etc.): Indeed, it did. Miscalculation, ignorance, arrogance, violence, Coup d’Etat followed by attacks,

Brenus, if I was a Romanian I would want as many NATO troops in my country as possible - but of course Romanians are actually all mafia too, right?

Over the last few years your scepticism has morphed into anti-NATO bias.

[Brenus]

"Brenus, if I was a Romanian I would want as many NATO troops in my country as possible" You might, but you can't expect Russia not to see it as a menace at her door.
Then you guys, are telling that Putin is a mafia boss. You, guys, are telling that Russia is the enemy. So, PVC, if you were a Russian, wouldn't worry to see troops in a country that never miss the occasion to attack you? Wouldn't worry to see a power describing you as an enemy massing forces at your borders? All around your borders, under various reasons, all legitimate of course.

Unfortunately, that is not my skepticism that modified my view, but NATO participation in rough aggression, against legality and international laws. And if you read my very first participation (well, one of) on Ukraine subject was to ask why NATO followers were so upset about Russia's actions as the model followed was NATO's one.
Double standards I would say: EU/USA impose sanctions, Russia blackmails, Putin's regime, Obama's administration, etc.

[Gilrandir]

Different superpower, different approach. Installing a friendly government more or less gives you the entire country without having to bit it all off. Putin had that in Ukraine, the people even voted the friendly government in. Now some tried to take it away from him in a move that destabilized the country and gave him tho opportunity to do what he did and does now.

I'm sure if he had reacted otherwise, now he would have quite a different Ukrainian government to deal with (with the pro-russians in Donbas and Crimea participating in the elections). Instead, with every new move he is digging himself into a deeper hole. He has two choices only: to press his cause until he wins (which he is finding increasingly difficult) or leave his post. His backing out at this (or any further) stage and saving his face is not possible any more.

Yes, and what remains of Ukraine will not have a lot of angry pro-Russians anymore and can safely do the whole EU mating dance that the British and the Dutch cheer them for because we all love the EU so much.

Putin will not have it even with the truncated Ukraine. He needs both non-Nato and non-EU guarantees of Ukraine's future. And can he guarantee anything in return? I mean guarantees that anyone would trust? And would anyone trust him anymore? Not Ukraine, at least.

Yes, I'm confident that you know Putin's convictions far better than the people who negotiate with him in person.

His convictions can be easily surmised on the basis of his actions.

And therefore we should do it to all Russians? Because two wrongs make a right or because the situations are totally comparable?

You didn't get what I meant. I mean that Ukrainians and Russians have been living side by side for several centuries and considered each other more than friends. This is one of the reasons no one expected such attitude and actions from a strategic partner. What Putin has done may have benefited him tactically, yet strategically he has disadvantaged Russia tremendously. I don't see any time in the nearest future when Russians and Ukrainians would feel the same towards each other. And this is more grievous than all territorial and political disputes. Ultimately, Ukraine will never (well, not in the forseeable future) say that our brothers and close friends live across the border.

I didn't know that he was Russian.

He wasn't. I just wanted to show how unreliable socialogical surveys are in modern Russia. Do you know the procedure? They TELEPHONE random people and ask: "Do you support Putin?"

But it would be enough to scare a photographer who would tweet about fighting at the frontlines and therefore justify a full NATO war against Russia.

Once again: Nato, EU, USA - they KNOW everything perfectly well so if they had wanted to start a war they would have done it long ago. As the USA had done it in Iraq, Afghanistan, Grenada... They don't want a war still hoping to give Putin a chance to back out and save his face. Putin sees it as a sign of weakness and keeps doing his dirty tricks. The questions is who will acknowledge the failure of his approach first.

So, PVC, if you were a Russian, wouldn't worry to see troops in a country that never miss the occasion to attack you? Wouldn't worry to see a power describing you as an enemy massing forces at your borders? All around your borders, under various reasons, all legitimate of course.

Remind us, as a Russian, how many times since 1945 your country has been attacked by the surrounding forces of evil. Russians offer only apprehensions as a reason and start real wars in response.

“so maybe it is time to try something else, no?” What about getting out of propaganda and go to negotiation based on reality and respect?

It may be an eye-opener for you, but I lost count of negotiations the West has had with Putin or Lavrov giving them all chances to change the attitude and save face at the same time. No good. A question: are you sure Putin lives in the same reality as all the world around him and respects international rules, laws and treaties?

Irrelevant as I was speaking of who is menacing the other.

Now consider it: Nato keeps menacing, Russia keeps waging wars. An equal exchange?

“Now remind us, how many Nato's flank attacks against Russia happened and compare it against Russia's attacks in Transdniestria, Abkhasia, South Ossetia, Chechnya and now Ukraine.” Again irrelevant, but it is not the first time: Firstly, none of these regions are countries, but regions of others countries. And even if they were, it wouldn't be a menace against NATO.
Second, no Russian aggression, No Russian Air Force attacking on the grounds, but break away from the main country, for most of them, Chechnya still being part of Russia as you didn’t stop to claim that Chechnya sent (Russian) soldiers in Ukraine, as usual without the beginning of a proof. I am almost sure you can buy some passports to show on TV, com’on, make an effort. You, as usual, don’t care of facts.

Short answer: none. No flank attacks to justify the fears Russia is having.

“Nato did it once”: Bosnia, Croatia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and of course Iraq, Syria, Libya. And if we count the NATO auxiliary France, Chad, and others African Countries.

I spoke of NATO's NEIGHBORS. So the answer is - only once - in former Yugoslavia. Russia is constantly involved in wars at its borders.

[CrossLOPER]

Russia keeps waging wars.

I would hardly call regional conflicts "wars".

[Husar]

I'm sure if he had reacted otherwise, now he would have quite a different Ukrainian government to deal with (with the pro-russians in Donbas and Crimea participating in the elections). Instead, with every new move he is digging himself into a deeper hole. He has two choices only: to press his cause until he wins (which he is finding increasingly difficult) or leave his post. His backing out at this (or any further) stage and saving his face is not possible any more.

Putin will not have it even with the truncated Ukraine. He needs both non-Nato and non-EU guarantees of Ukraine's future. And can he guarantee anything in return? I mean guarantees that anyone would trust? And would anyone trust him anymore? Not Ukraine, at least.
[...]
Once again: Nato, EU, USA - they KNOW everything perfectly well so if they had wanted to start a war they would have done it long ago. As the USA had done it in Iraq, Afghanistan, Grenada... They don't want a war still hoping to give Putin a chance to back out and save his face. Putin sees it as a sign of weakness and keeps doing his dirty tricks. The questions is who will acknowledge the failure of his approach first.

So Putin is digging himself deeper into a hole and his approach is really bad for him in the long term, but the strategies of the Western countries have also completely failed, so who is going to "win" this? Putin? Apparently not, he's digging a deeper hole all the time and cannot go back. The West? Apparently not, their tactic has failed. Sounds like the situation will either disappear magically or WW3 as I said earlier. Or am I getting something wrong here?

You didn't get what I meant. I mean that Ukrainians and Russians have been living side by side for several centuries and considered each other more than friends. This is one of the reasons no one expected such attitude and actions from a strategic partner. What Putin has done may have benefited him tactically, yet strategically he has disadvantaged Russia tremendously. I don't see any time in the nearest future when Russians and Ukrainians would feel the same towards each other. And this is more grievous than all territorial and political disputes. Ultimately, Ukraine will never (well, not in the forseeable future) say that our brothers and close friends live across the border.

Maybe Putin didn't expect his strategic friends to dump him for the EU with the whole Maidan thing either, which happened before he showed his "attitude and actions".

He wasn't. I just wanted to show how unreliable socialogical surveys are in modern Russia. Do you know the procedure? They TELEPHONE random people and ask: "Do you support Putin?"

What's the problem with telephones? Political polls in the West aren't conducted by magic mind readers either, telephones are a common tool.
https://www.boundless.com/political-...ling-275-6802/

[Brenus]

“Now consider it: Nato keeps menacing, Russia keeps waging wars. An equal exchange?” Not factual. NATO waged more war than Russia (legitimate and not). This is a fact.

“A question: are you sure Putin lives in the same reality as all the world around him and respects international rules, laws and treaties?” Of course not but I am sure that the world around him doesn’t either, repeatedly.

“No flank attacks to justify the fears Russia is having.” Ask the Russians: due to History, they’ve got a point.

“I spoke of NATO's NEIGHBORS” Nope, you didn’t as you included Kosovo in it.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Brenus:

What should be done with this situation? What is a good end result here?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

...

Pretty much - Putin doesn't live in our reality - he's paranoid. It's what makes him so dangerous - I've adopted the positions that whatever we think is just far too extreme is what Putin will do. From which perspective I'm afraid he will eventually escalate to formally invading your country to annex the other Russian-majority regions.

[Brenus]

“What should be done with this situation? What is a good end result here?”
I don’t know.
What do we have? A potential war in a country which has a nuclear plant named Chernobyl and I think 3 more (Zaporijia, Rovno and Khmelnitski ) for a total of 15 reactors like it that needs fuel and spare parts for maintenance from…Moscow.
I will not answer the “should” part, what is done is done, and Ukraine will have to deal to the situation as Serbia has to deal with the loss of Kosovo. There is no justice, only me, said Death in one of Prachett’s book.
Arming Ukraine is a bad idea, as Russia will be able to match every piece of equipment. If necessary, Russia will provide grounds troops, as Russia sees Ukraine as vital for her security. USA and EU will not be able to mobilise on the same feeling, so no troops will be sent.
After the disastrous dealing of the situation by EU/US and Ukrainian Putchist then Legitimate Government of Ukraine of the crisis, it, perhaps, was still place of compromise and to keep Ukrainian territory intact. I still don’t understand how the CIA analysts (but not only) got it so wrong, and underestimated (if not misestimate) Russian feelings and intentions.
Long time ago, I went in Russia (during Chechnya first war) to deliver medical equipment to Doctors without Borders working in the region. All conversations with the translators, and contact with the locals were about the humiliation of Russia by the West under the Drunken Bear Boris Eltsin. I was told that there were so many Russian prostitutes in Istanbul that all of them were called Natacha. True or not, it was what I was told.
They were almost all thirsty for dignity and respect.
Putin success is due for a large part to the return of Russia to a level of self-dignity.
If this is not understood and rectify, all efforts will be in vain.
Thanks to Gilrandir, I started to watch RT recently, and not every day, to be frank. I don’t know if what is said in English is what is said in Russian, but they show the comments made by Westerner Politicians, comparing RT and IS.
So, in term of what can be done, only de-escalation is an option. Ukraine has now no other solution than federalisation, negotiation and talk. Confidence Building Programmes, financed by the European Agency for Reconstruction, rebuilding an economy, a real democracy, creation of jobs, repair of infrastructures: One of the greatest French Colonial General said one to the Foreign Legion after the conquest (I think Morocco) to build one market, one school and to provide medical assistance in each conquered village: Same principal, different wording, bringing populations together, stopping the aggressive stance and coming back to civil life. As Gilrandir often said, they were all neighbours (even if it doesn’t always make it easier).
George Clemenceau, the man who won the 1st World War, said one: Better a bad peace than a good war. It is not always true, but I think in this case it is.

[Gilrandir]

So Putin is digging himself deeper into a hole and his approach is really bad for him in the long term, but the strategies of the Western countries have also completely failed, so who is going to "win" this? Putin? Apparently not, he's digging a deeper hole all the time and cannot go back. The West? Apparently not, their tactic has failed. Sounds like the situation will either disappear magically or WW3 as I said earlier. Or am I getting something wrong here?

You are getting everything right. I don't see any solution either. Perhaps, if Putin magically disappears (and he hasn't shown himself in public for ten days or so having cancelled some important visits (namely to Kazakhstan), the signing of the union treaty with South Ossetia and the NSDC sitting in Pyatigorsk (IIRC) which he heads and has never missed) than for a time Russian elite will be too busy with sorting things out among themselves to pay all other events more than a cursory look, the rest of the world will have a chance to come up with something. Mind you, I don't hope for any successor with a milder attitude. As many experts claim, Putin's environment now consisits of "the party of blood and money" and "the party of Big blood". Whichever wins the outlook is not bright, yet while they are bickering the world will have a breathing space and might be able to do somehting (hopefully).

Maybe Putin didn't expect his strategic friends to dump him for the EU with the whole Maidan thing either, which happened before he showed his "attitude and actions".

I have answered this one, yet I can do it again: some countries (Turkey, Israel) are perfectly well having free trade agreements both with the EU and Russia. Even Yanukovych in summer of 2013 said that he would like to see the same future for Ukraine. Russia thought (and still thinks) that it should be a matter of choice - either the former or the latter.
Anyway, the way Putin enforces friendship is unlikely to get him friends.

What's the problem with telephones? Political polls in the West aren't conducted by magic mind readers either, telephones are a common tool.
https://www.boundless.com/political-...ling-275-6802/

You evidently have no experience of living in the USSR and modern Russia which increasingly reminds the former. Ask GenosseGeneral, for example, what a modern Russian is likely to say when he is asked by an unknown person on the telephone about his attitude to Putin. Of course, there are some (or very many) that genuinely support him (see the video on celebration Putin's birthday in Grozny), but I would say that a considerable portion would just freak out and say that they worshipped their leader. So the 85-88% figure that Russian media boast of is in fact bloated out of proportion. The real figure (though great in fact, I'm sure) is far less.

“Now consider it: Nato keeps menacing, Russia keeps waging wars. An equal exchange?” Not factual. NATO waged more war than Russia (legitimate and not). This is a fact.

I speak of wars IN THE NEAR VICINITY. No one beats Russia in that.

“A question: are you sure Putin lives in the same reality as all the world around him and respects international rules, laws and treaties?” Of course not but I am sure that the world around him doesn’t either, repeatedly.

What is then the purpose to talk and negotiate with Putin?

“No flank attacks to justify the fears Russia is having.” Ask the Russians: due to History, they’ve got a point.

No they don't. Since the time Nato was created Russia has NEVER been attacked by any of NATO members. On the contrary, any nations Russia had wars with ceased any military aggression against Russia since they joined NATO. So for any country joining NATO seems a safeguard against any attacks on Russia through point 5 of the treaty.

The most funny thing in all these Brenus' anti-NATO philippics is the fact that they come from a person who at least once (in Bosnia) was instrumental in NATO's depredations. I wonder where is genuine Brenus - the one that is now denouncing NATO's hideous ways or the one who put his signature against his name on the payroll and got his salary from NATO.

From which perspective I'm afraid he will eventually escalate to formally invading your country to annex the other Russian-majority regions.

He realizes that now he has not enough manpower and money to capture them and still less to hold them. Right now he is bent on destroying Ukraine from within, but Ukraine got a respite with the IMF money. This evidently will demand the adjustment of his policies. What he comes up with we will see pretty soon (that is if he emerges from his hiding).
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...ike-a-dictator

A potential war in a country which has a nuclear plant named Chernobyl

It has been shut down years ago.

So, in term of what can be done, only de-escalation is an option.

And Russia thinks so too:
http://sputniknews.com/politics/2015...019309874.html

Ukraine has now no other solution than federalisation, negotiation and talk.

I don't agree on the first, while the second and the third have been tried repeatedly bringing no palpable improvement.

As Gilrandir often said, they were all neighbours (even if it doesn’t always make it easier).

We still are and we are doomed to ever be.

[Brenus]

“The most funny thing in all these Brenus' anti-NATO philippics is the fact that they come from a person who at least once (in Bosnia) was instrumental in NATO's depredations. I wonder where is genuine Brenus - the one that is now denouncing NATO's hideous ways or the one who put his signature against his name on the payroll and got his salary from NATO.” The funniest thing in your smear campaign is you get all wrong as usual.
My time in the Army (and France was not part of NATO at that times) is from 1979 to 1984).
Bosnian wars started in 1992. I know you don’t really care of facts but it was still 8 years later.

So, what will you find now in order to attack the person and not the arguments?

The other unexpected effect of your ill-informed statement is it looks you think to work with or for NATO is something to be ashamed of… You are free to think so, but I want to emphasize I am not of this opinion. Some of my best friends worked for NATO.

“What is then the purpose to talk and negotiate with Putin?” The same than for Russia to talk to NATO/EU/US liars: To try to find a solution. From Russian’s point of view, all promises made after the USSR collapse were broken, so perhaps it is time to re-built some bridges.

“I speak of wars IN THE NEAR VICINITY.” Ooh, you change your stance again. Nothing wrong with that, mind you, to recognise your mistakes. So Afghanistan is not in Russian’s vicinity? And which war in near vicinity Russia did start, invade? I am writing “start”.

“Russia has NEVER been attacked by any of NATO members” Which NATO member has been attacked by Russia?

“And Russia think so too” Oops, again your weak point, understanding wording: De-escalation (lowering down tensions) in not withdrawing from a association or organism.
You might have mixed-up because withdrawing military equipment is part of de-escalate a conflict.

[Husar]

I have answered this one, yet I can do it again: some countries (Turkey, Israel) are perfectly well having free trade agreements both with the EU and Russia. Even Yanukovych in summer of 2013 said that he would like to see the same future for Ukraine. Russia thought (and still thinks) that it should be a matter of choice - either the former or the latter.
Anyway, the way Putin enforces friendship is unlikely to get him friends.

He wasn't making a lot of friends before that either, but since when were Turkey and Israel historically friends of Russia? Their free trade agreements have nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine.

You evidently have no experience of living in the USSR and modern Russia which increasingly reminds the former. Ask GenosseGeneral, for example, what a modern Russian is likely to say when he is asked by an unknown person on the telephone about his attitude to Putin. Of course, there are some (or very many) that genuinely support him (see the video on celebration Putin's birthday in Grozny), but I would say that a considerable portion would just freak out and say that they worshipped their leader. So the 85-88% figure that Russian media boast of is in fact bloated out of proportion. The real figure (though great in fact, I'm sure) is far less.

Of course not, I was born in the Free World™.
But that seems to be a general problem with polling outside the free world, nothing very special about using a telephone to do so, so I was surprised that you highlighted the world telephone. Or would people answer differently if a random guy asked them on the street?

[Gilrandir]

The other unexpected effect of your ill-informed statement is it looks you think to work with or for NATO is something to be ashamed of…

For one so critical of NATO as you it would be not a shame, but hypocrisy. Morally, one can't get paid by someone and then go about saying how you hate what in fact is being done with your participation.

“What is then the purpose to talk and negotiate with Putin?” The same than for Russia to talk to NATO/EU/US liars: To try to find a solution. From Russian’s point of view, all promises made after the USSR collapse were broken, so perhaps it is time to re-built some bridges.

All the promises you mention (afaik) never took the shape of a treaty, while Russia's promises (concerning Ukraine) did at least twice (Budapest memorandum of 1994 and Russia-Ukraine treaty of friendship and cooperstion of 1997). Bridges you may build, but Russia will have a terrorist with an explosive ticking under each of them.

“I speak of wars IN THE NEAR VICINITY.” Ooh, you change your stance again. Nothing wrong with that, mind you, to recognise your mistakes. So Afghanistan is not in Russian’s vicinity? And which war in near vicinity Russia did start, invade? I am writing “start”.

I don't change it - just a misunderstanding on your part. I speak of Russia waging wars in its vicinity against NATO waging wars in its vicinity. Clearly Russia wins - wars in Transdniestria, Abkhasia, South Ossetia, Chechnya (inside Russia) and now Ukraine. The nearest vicinity of NATO with the latter's involvement saw only Yugoslavian war(s). Since there were several of them on a limited territory (or several stages of the same war) it is safe to assume that it is the locale itself that was in trouble. Russia, on the contrary, was (and is) directly involved in conflicts in different republics of the former USSR. It is a pattern of Russia's behavior rather than natural troubles.

“Russia has NEVER been attacked by any of NATO members” Which NATO member has been attacked by Russia?

No. SO the answer to your question will bring you directly to answering this one: should Ukraine become a NATO member?

“And Russia think so too” Oops, again your weak point, understanding wording: De-escalation (lowering down tensions) in not withdrawing from a association or organism.
You might have mixed-up because withdrawing military equipment is part of de-escalate a conflict.

So lifting limitations on the number of weapons is not against de-escalation?

He wasn't making a lot of friends before that either, but since when were Turkey and Israel historically friends of Russia? Their free trade agreements have nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine.

When Yanukovych started his EU campagn he claimed (and I agree with him) that being a member of an economic organisation can not cancel any friendly, historic, economic, political and other ties with other countries (Russia in particular). And free trade agreement with both the EU and Russia could be a good example of such approach. Unfortunately, Russia didn't (and doesn't) see it that way. For Putin it is: either be our friend or be within the EU.

Of course not, I was born in the Free World™.
But that seems to be a general problem with polling outside the free world, nothing very special about using a telephone to do so, so I was surprised that you highlighted the world telephone. Or would people answer differently if a random guy asked them on the street?

People in the former USSR (and more so in modern Russia) are pretty much sure that their telephone talks are being eavesdropped on. There is even expression in Russian which is still in use and which can be roughly translated as "it is not a kind of talk one should have over the telephone". Since the researchers telephoned their homes people assumed that they knew their home phone number and consequently their address and consequently their name. So at the back of their mind would always be a picture of a guy with earphones taping every word they said and knowing all private information about them. Questioning people in the street in the broad daylight by an unknown person would give the survey at least a semblance of anonymity.

[Brenus]

“For one so critical of NATO as you it would be not a shame, but hypocrisy. Morally, one can't get paid by someone and then go about saying how you hate what in fact is being done with your participation.” Oh, so you think that because one is paid by an organisation, one can’t be critical of the same organisation… So, if you work for Health Services and you see something wrong, you can’t report it? You have strange points of view on how things work. Someone working for CIA has to agree with torture?
But, as you acknowledge, and contrary of what you wrote in order to disqualify what I am saying, that is not my case, so not really in debate, at least for me…

“All the promises you mention (afaik) never took the shape of a treaty, while Russia's promises (concerning Ukraine) did at least twice (Budapest memorandum of 1994 and Russia-Ukraine treaty of friendship and cooperstion of 1997). Bridges you may build, but Russia will have a terrorist with an explosive ticking under each of them.” Yeah, but the same can be said for the Internationally Recognised Borders that NATO didn’t hesitate to cross illegally (then changed) when needed… So Russia might have a terrorist under the bridges, NATO might have a drone/airplane above the bridges equipped with armed bombs.

“Clearly Russia wins - wars in Transdniestria, Abkhasia, South Ossetia, Chechnya (inside Russia) and now Ukraine” None of these wars (low level conflicts) was initiated by Russia. However, Iraq, Afghanistan, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Libya were initiated by NATO. I might as well put Ukraine in the bag, as it was the Coup d’Etat initiated by if not NATO (but as you do not hesitate to add internal conflicts in Russian backyard, why shouldn’t I?), by it diplomacy and secret services. So NATO wins the contest without appeal. Just with Iraq, NATO aggression succeeded to destabilise the entire Middle-East, not bad for an organisation supposed to act defensively.

“No. SO the answer to your question will bring you directly to answering this one: should Ukraine become a NATO member?” Up to Ukraine and NATO to decide. However, due to the success record of the latest NATO interventions, if I would be Ukraine, I would think twice, after seeing what happened in Libya, Kosovo or Iraq… Do note that these countries didn’t crumble under Putin’s evil hand but all by themselves…

“So lifting limitations on the number of weapons is not against de-escalation?” No, not as such, especially when you read the article. I find the reason quite compelling. Treaty was signed when promises not to extend NATO was made, so including new Countries in NATO de facto increased NATO capacities, so Russia sees no reason to keep her part of the deal when clearly NATO is not.
Or perhaps you will tell now that NATO didn’t include new members?

[GenosseGeneral]

Regarding the "polling debate":
Telephone calls are indeed the most common way of conducting polls, although they have a lot of biases and shortcomings, e.g. non-coverage of people not owning a telephone or who are not home when the pollster calls. However, all types of polls have biases and telephone interviews are comparably cheap, accurate and quick (more on the topic: you can certainly find something comparable in your language
Yet I can indeed see a number of reasons why I indeed expect them to work less well in a post-soviet environment:
a) More uneven spread of telephone numbers: whereas most German households have one fixed-line number, most people here have a varying number of mobile numbers. That makes drawing a randomized sample much more difficult.
b) Lower responsiveness: As Gilrandir already said, for cultural reasons people can be less open than in the West, especially those who grew up in the USSR. Although I have so far never met a person who declined talking about politics in person, but then again, I also have never called random people and asked them about their personal opinion. It is indeed notable, that the chunk of people "finding it hard to answer the question" is significantly larger in polls from Russia/Ukraine than in those from the West.


If you are interested in polls from the region, check the Levada Tsentr: http://www.levada.ru/eng/ Widely regarded as the most independent pollster in Russia and they also publish a good deal of their work in English. As a a social scientist, I like their releases actually more than what is published in the average Western mass media, as the data is presented in far more different categories, for example the population size of the respondent's place of residence. It is quite interesting to see how huge differences between Moscow/Petersburg and small towns are. Putin, for instance, is actually MORE popular with the urban than with the village population.
EDIT: More on their methodology: http://www.levada.ru/eng/omnibus-survey
It gives you an idea of how difficult the conduction of an accurate survey is.

“What should be done with this situation? What is a good end result here?”
I don’t know.
What do we have? A potential war in a country which has a nuclear plant named Chernobyl and I think 3 more (Zaporijia, Rovno and Khmelnitski ) for a total of 15 reactors like it that needs fuel and spare parts for maintenance from…Moscow.
I will not answer the “should” part, what is done is done, and Ukraine will have to deal to the situation as Serbia has to deal with the loss of Kosovo. There is no justice, only me, said Death in one of Prachett’s book.
Arming Ukraine is a bad idea, as Russia will be able to match every piece of equipment. If necessary, Russia will provide grounds troops, as Russia sees Ukraine as vital for her security. USA and EU will not be able to mobilise on the same feeling, so no troops will be sent.
After the disastrous dealing of the situation by EU/US and Ukrainian Putchist then Legitimate Government of Ukraine of the crisis, it, perhaps, was still place of compromise and to keep Ukrainian territory intact. I still don’t understand how the CIA analysts (but not only) got it so wrong, and underestimated (if not misestimate) Russian feelings and intentions.
Long time ago, I went in Russia (during Chechnya first war) to deliver medical equipment to Doctors without Borders working in the region. All conversations with the translators, and contact with the locals were about the humiliation of Russia by the West under the Drunken Bear Boris Eltsin. I was told that there were so many Russian prostitutes in Istanbul that all of them were called Natacha. True or not, it was what I was told.
They were almost all thirsty for dignity and respect.
Putin success is due for a large part to the return of Russia to a level of self-dignity.
If this is not understood and rectify, all efforts will be in vain.
Thanks to Gilrandir, I started to watch RT recently, and not every day, to be frank. I don’t know if what is said in English is what is said in Russian, but they show the comments made by Westerner Politicians, comparing RT and IS.
So, in term of what can be done, only de-escalation is an option. Ukraine has now no other solution than federalisation, negotiation and talk. Confidence Building Programmes, financed by the European Agency for Reconstruction, rebuilding an economy, a real democracy, creation of jobs, repair of infrastructures: One of the greatest French Colonial General said one to the Foreign Legion after the conquest (I think Morocco) to build one market, one school and to provide medical assistance in each conquered village: Same principal, different wording, bringing populations together, stopping the aggressive stance and coming back to civil life. As Gilrandir often said, they were all neighbours (even if it doesn’t always make it easier).
George Clemenceau, the man who won the 1st World War, said one: Better a bad peace than a good war. It is not always true, but I think in this case it is.

I have to admit, that I rarely agree with your posts in this topic, but this one is definitely an exception to the rule. Especially the bit about Russians longing for respect. One thing I have noticed in my first 2 weeks here, is that people have a certain obsession with the US as a rival. The USSR used to be on par with the US and Russians see the Yeltsin era as not more than an exception from the
rule. The Russian version of 'Murica is bringing freedom, F*CK YEAH
Expect more of that over the next days, as Crimea returning day seems to have become a national holiday. Oh and have the Putin quotes from the "documentary" made by Pervyy Kanal already made it into the Western press? THERE WERE GRU SPETSNAZ IN CRIMEA! *Badum tsss*

I also agree with the part about the complete failure of US/EU officials. I don't know what frightens me more: the idea of them being so ruthless, that they didn't care or so clueless, that they didn't know better.

[Beskar]

The Russian version of 'Murica is bringing freedom, F*CK YEAH

Good propaganda piece, I could see it being well received domestically and those who are sympathetic.

[Gilrandir]

“For one so critical of NATO as you it would be not a shame, but hypocrisy. Morally, one can't get paid by someone and then go about saying how you hate what in fact is being done with your participation.” Oh, so you think that because one is paid by an organisation, one can’t be critical of the same organisation… So, if you work for Health Services and you see something wrong, you can’t report it? You have strange points of view on how things work. Someone working for CIA has to agree with torture?

It is not about criticizing, it is about conceptual disagreements with the employer. For example, one can't be a whaler and the member of Green Peace simultaneously, one can't work for a cosmetics company which is known to be testing its produce on animals and hold auctions to help suffering animals. Well, of course one can, but one's moral integrity is, to put it mildly, questionable. The same with NATO: one can't take the money from the organization and say how one hates it for being so dirty and aggressive in its ways, means, policies and devices. In fact, he would be denouncing himself as he gives a hand in devising all those.

“All the promises you mention (afaik) never took the shape of a treaty, while Russia's promises (concerning Ukraine) did at least twice (Budapest memorandum of 1994 and Russia-Ukraine treaty of friendship and cooperstion of 1997). Bridges you may build, but Russia will have a terrorist with an explosive ticking under each of them.” Yeah, but the same can be said for the Internationally Recognised Borders that NATO didn’t hesitate to cross illegally (then changed) when needed… So Russia might have a terrorist under the bridges, NATO might have a drone/airplane above the bridges equipped with armed bombs.

The guy under the bridge will always be one move ahead while airplanes are circling about and their pilots are "apalled, shocked and gravely concerned".

“Clearly Russia wins - wars in Transdniestria, Abkhasia, South Ossetia, Chechnya (inside Russia) and now Ukraine” None of these wars (low level conflicts) was initiated by Russia. However, Iraq, Afghanistan, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Libya were initiated by NATO. I might as well put Ukraine in the bag, as it was the Coup d’Etat initiated by if not NATO (but as you do not hesitate to add internal conflicts in Russian backyard, why shouldn’t I?), by it diplomacy and secret services.

I'm as much sure that all the wars I mentioned were initiated by Russia. And I may as well claim that all the conflicts you mentioned stemmed from inside those countries and NATO may have had its say in them afterwards. So we must agree to disagree on it.

“No. SO the answer to your question will bring you directly to answering this one: should Ukraine become a NATO member?” Up to Ukraine and NATO to decide. However, due to the success record of the latest NATO interventions, if I would be Ukraine, I would think twice, after seeing what happened in Libya, Kosovo or Iraq…

Those countries were not NATO members. So, if we admit that NAtO doesn't attack its members and that Russia doesn't attack NATO members, would Ukraine be safer within NATO - both from NATO and Russia?

“So lifting limitations on the number of weapons is not against de-escalation?” No, not as such, especially when you read the article. I find the reason quite compelling. Treaty was signed when promises not to extend NATO was made, so including new Countries in NATO de facto increased NATO capacities, so Russia sees no reason to keep her part of the deal when clearly NATO is not.
Or perhaps you will tell now that NATO didn’t include new members?

It is again promises against the signed treaty. Evidently, for Russia these two are equal. It never honors either.

[Gilrandir]

Isn't that romantic?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Brenus:

Our intelligence services screw up the feelings and intentions side of things regularly. Why? A preference for SIGINT over HUMINT....been our Achilles' heel for quite a while now.

For example, we had so little HUMINT in Iraq that we completely believed our source who said Saddam still had an active WMD program in place -- even though that source had a huge axe to grind and we had little corroboration.

[Gilrandir]

A U-turn in Russia's stance on peacekeepers in Ukraine.
http://mw.ua/WORLD/lavrov-moscow-is-...bas-1455_.html

[Brenus]

“It never honors either.” And NATO did?

“So, if we admit that NAtO doesn't attack its members and that Russia doesn't attack NATO members, would Ukraine be safer within NATO - both from NATO and Russia?” Good point. Just a mild remark, Greece and Turkey, both member of NATO did fight each other and Cyprus is still divided between the two. I can mentioned as well the war between UK and Argentina, both allied with US (at the time, I don’t know what is the situation for Argentina now).

“The guy under the bridge will always be one move ahead while airplanes are circling about and their pilots are "apalled, shocked and gravely concerned".” Yeap, but the guy under the bridge put his life on line, when the pilot will be back home ½ hour after. And when did you ever heard pilots being "appalled, shocked and gravely concerned” of bombing?

“Our intelligence services screw up the feelings and intentions side of things regularly. Why? A preference for SIGINT over HUMINT....been our Achilles' heel for quite a while now.
For example, we had so little HUMINT in Iraq that we completely believed our source who said Saddam still had an active WMD program in place -- even though that source had a huge axe to grind and we had little corroboration.” I agree, but not entirely. Iraq is a good case. French, German, Italian intelligence told US that it was not possible. And if you put personnel on the grounds, just watching and listening, you could have seen that Iraq was not in position to maintain even a conventional army. And I remember on the French TV debates about the validity of the “free” Iraqis testimony…
As Ukraine is concerned, I said it before, I think it was a pure blunder due to arrogance itself generated by a string of successes in the coloured Revolutions. I am still convinced that no one planned Ukraine; it just went at its momentum as Dr Frankenstein’s creature wobbling to the nearest village. Or, as put by Pratchett, someone throwing a snow ball on a mountain and being surprise by the villages swept by the avalanche.

[Gilrandir]

“It never honors either.” And NATO did?

So once again - no treaties nor negotiations will change anything at the moment.

“So, if we admit that NAtO doesn't attack its members and that Russia doesn't attack NATO members, would Ukraine be safer within NATO - both from NATO and Russia?” Good point. Just a mild remark, Greece and Turkey, both member of NATO did fight each other and Cyprus is still divided between the two.

It was never a full-scale war and it was not between Greece and Turkey but rather between Cyprus and Turkey.

I can mentioned as well the war between UK and Argentina, both allied with US (at the time, I don’t know what is the situation for Argentina now).

Argentina wasn't and isn't a Nato member and we have agreed that "no attack rule" 100% applied to Nato/Russia relations.

“The guy under the bridge will always be one move ahead while airplanes are circling about and their pilots are "apalled, shocked and gravely concerned".” Yeap, but the guy under the bridge put his life on line, when the pilot will be back home ½ hour after.

You forget two important considerations:
1. The guy under the bridge isn't usually alone - there is another one who brought him there and is squatting in the bush by the roadside with a stinger on his shoulder.
2. Those who sent both are not sorry to lose them - they have plenty more to replace them.

And when did you ever heard pilots being "appalled, shocked and gravely concerned” of bombing?

Since the plane is metaphorically the EU and its pilots are the EU leaders, their reaction to seeing armed guys from Russia in Donbas was what I described.

[Gilrandir]

Although I have so far never met a person who declined talking about politics in person, but then again, I also have never called random people and asked them about their personal opinion.

I wonder how many of those you talked to were critical about current Russian government? I have a suspicion that those ready to talk were Putin supporters.

[Gilrandir]

This is what I call de-escalation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-russia-drills

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

This is what I call de-escalation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-russia-drills

What "new" threat?

The Mole people?