Best Deal Ever! or Path to Iranian World Domination

[HopAlongBunny]

Emperor Obama finally seems to have a deal with Iran on enrichment. May see some lifting of sanctions (or not)
So is peace ready to explode in the Middle East or are we headed to the end of the world?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0MV07U20150404

[CrossLOPER]

Emperor Obama finally seems to have a deal with Iran on enrichment. May see some lifting of sanctions (or not)
So is peace ready to explode in the Middle East or are we headed to the end of the world?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0MV07U20150404

Uh...yes?

[Gilrandir]

Emperor Obama finally seems to have a deal with Iran on enrichment. May see some lifting of sanctions (or not)
So is peace ready to explode in the Middle East or are we headed to the end of the world?

Waiting to see oil prices plummeting. Good for Ukraine (with gasoline prices having rocketed after hryvnas'd substantial devaluation), bad for Russia and its defense (or rather offense) budget
http://rt.com/business/russia-increa...spendings-702/
which is again good gor Ukraine.

[HopAlongBunny]

The prospect of further depressing oil prices is a fear here in Alberta, Canada; we share that with the Russians.
Increased revenues for Iran with the lifting of some sanctions, feeds the fear of Iran flexing its muscle to influence Middle East politics.
It seems that the prospect of putting the boots to Russia outweighs the fear of growing Iranian influence (at least for now)

[Fragony]

Wild thought, maybe a more influential Iran ain't such a bad thing. They seem to be ripe for a next revolution, the green-wave failed but somemeting is cooking there, might just become our best friends.

[CrossLOPER]

Waiting to see oil prices plummeting. Good for Ukraine (with gasoline prices having rocketed after hryvnas'd substantial devaluation), bad for Russia and its defense (or rather offense) budget
http://rt.com/business/russia-increa...spendings-702/
which is again good gor Ukraine.

I think that, at some point in the future, you are going to realize that cheaper oil does not make all your problems magically go away.

[HopAlongBunny]

Little doubt that Russia can finance all its wishes and dreams one way or another; it may come at the cost of crippling its' future options.
An economically wounded Russia plays well in most Western nations, but the loss of value that Russia could bring to the world economy is problematic.

[Gilrandir]

I think that, at some point in the future, you are going to realize that cheaper oil does not make all your problems magically go away.

Where did you see me say that? I said that cheaper oil makes the outlook brighter and gives Ukraine some breathing space. But it definitely is not an answer to challenges Ukraine faces.

Little doubt that Russia can finance all its wishes and dreams one way or another

If the oil prices continue to go down, Russia will have to choose the wishes it is able to cater to. And it may cut down on financing the Ukrainian wild goose chase in favor of other options.

[Hooahguy]

Im really hoping that Iran turns peaceful, would love to see those warhawks get egg on their faces about this.

[Papewaio]

Little doubt that Russia can finance all its wishes and dreams one way or another; it may come at the cost of crippling its' future options.
An economically wounded Russia plays well in most Western nations, but the loss of value that Russia could bring to the world economy is problematic.

Apart from very good anti-virus systems that don't have NSA backdoors... what does Russia supply that another nation (China, Germany, Saudi Arabia) cannot supply at a better value point?

They have the same main problem as Australia in being for their size a primary producer for export dollars.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Wild thought, maybe a more influential Iran ain't such a bad thing. They seem to be ripe for a next revolution, the green-wave failed but somemeting is cooking there, might just become our best friends.

This is jumbled. What is your point?

That another revolution is in the offing?

That this current government is more amenable to negotiation?

That the theocrats are slowly losing their hold on power?

Your statement could have meant any of these...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Im really hoping that Iran turns peaceful, would love to see those warhawks get egg on their faces about this.

I tend to agree with the Warhawks....but I would very much like to be wrong and for peace to prosper.

[Gilrandir]

what does Russia supply that another nation (China, Germany, Saudi Arabia) cannot supply at a better value point?

Little green men?

[Fragony]

This is jumbled. What is your point?

That another revolution is in the offing?

That this current government is more amenable to negotiation?

That the theocrats are slowly losing their hold on power?

Your statement could have meant any of these...

The people of the first revolution knew nothing but the Shah, the current generation know nothing but the islamic regime. The green wave was almost a second revolution that sadly failed. Google 'For Neda' and you'll see what I mean.

edit, did it for you, this should be legal but I reported my post just in case it isn't https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F48SinuEHIk

[Crandar]

The "Green Wave" were religious nutjobs, too, but they were pro-American, so we called them moderates. After all, Ahmadinejad had rightfully won the elections.

[Greyblades]

Did he? We have a lot of accounts from those biased against him saying it wasnt and some biased for him saying it was, but what do we actually have that can definitively say either way?

[HopAlongBunny]

Well at least Russia has decided to make hay while reports of sunshine come in:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0N40YX20150413

Maybe not too surprising. It is quick and convenient for both parties; the trade might help Russia offset some of the recent sanctions from the West and I imagine Iran is just happy to play both sides against the middle in US / Russian relations.
Might we be seeing a return of the non-aligned movement as rhetoric between Russia and America heats up?

[Graphic]

I feel like the sale, along with any other practical concerns, was also a giant "fuck you" to the USA to make a future military action more painful. However, if it comes to crippling Iran's nuclear program by (air) force, the S-300s are a concern but not a game changer IMO. The US has had examples bought from Croatia for years now, so the exact capabilities are known (and approximate capabilities for upgraded models) with wild weasel tactics already incorporated into SEAD training for it. Plus the Iranians will probably not operate it as efficiently as Russians, making them easier to sniff out and tomahawk.

I hope it doesn't come to that though, and I doubt it will. I assume Iran, thinking rather sanely, started the program to safeguard themselves from a US invasion. In the early-mid 2000s their two largest neighbors had already been conquered and there was already rhetoric heating up for action against Iran (McCain's infamous "bomb bomb bomb Iran" song). Now that it's not a serious concern for the forseeable future thanks to the public's war exhaustion, I feel like Iran just wants to get rid of the sanctions to pull their economy out of the gutter, and to possibly normalize relations with the United States eventually.

They might still have harsh anti-American propaganda but then so does a country like Vietnam, who is nonetheless seeking close relations with the US and even with high approval among their population for the US in their polls. So I don't think the Iranian clergy is an unmovable stumbling block to normal or even cooperative relations in the future, if you consider them just another kind of politburo or ruling single party.

In general the whole issue is clouded by everyone's inability to take Iran seriously as a rational actor. They're not comic book villains, in the end all they want is to preserve their regime and make the country prosper.