POTUS Election thread

[Montmorency]

Haji Bakr 4 Prez

[Hooahguy]

Why do you go out of your way to pick people that will never win

Ah yes, because going even further to the right is totally the way that the GOP will win.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Ah yes, because going even further to the right is totally the way that the GOP will win.

Going to the right is the only way to win the GOP primaries, and hence the only way to win if you are a Republican.

[Hooahguy]

Because winning the GOP primaries is what really counts, amirite?

[a completely inoffensive name]

Because winning the GOP primaries is what really counts, amirite?

Yes

[Montmorency]

It's more complicated than that. With the various weird reforms the Republicans have been playing with in anticipation of 2016 primaries and delegate allocation, primaries held between mid-March and the end of April will be the impactful ones. After that, the conclusion will almost certainly be foregone. Before that, many if not most delegates will be proportionally allocated (according to candidates' performance in each primary).

What this means is that the influence of Texas and California will be reduced - March 1 primary and June 7 primary, respectively - while the influence of New York - undetermined primary date - may be increased.

Altogether, a successful Republican contender need not "win" any primaries until the Illinois, Florida, and Missouri conventions on March 15.

Also, recall that there is a technical out to the whole process. There are to be 2470 Republican delegates to the national convention. Of them, taking 1235 will clinch the nomination. However, if the contest is very mixed such that no one contender can reach the 50% mark, but there is one contender who has a plurality by the end of the primary season, then it is easily possible that this contender would, if deemed a risk by the party leadership, be thrown under the bus for someone else.

How could this happen? Well, don't forget the super/bonus delegates. There are more than 400 of them for the Republicans this time. If Rick Santorum gets 1000 delegates but Pataki gets 900, then we should expect Santorum to get cooked at the Convention.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Technically it's 1236 to win. 50% + 1 vote (otherwise there could theoretically be a tie between two people who get 50%).

[Hooahguy]

So Trump is threatening a third party run. This might be 1992 all over again!

[drone]

So Trump is threatening a third party run. This might be 1992 all over again!

If he is still going by Nov 2016 (either as the nominee or 3rd party), he is going to crush whatever slim chance the GOP has of getting in the White House. Hillary must be loving it.

[Papewaio]

I thought the simplest selection method of a party candidate for POTUS would be the one that mimics the actual election the closest. Not only would it be simpler you would have a candidate who is supported by your voter base across the country not just some states.

Oh look we won Idaho by a landslide and lost every other state. But at least we have a convulted selection process.

[Strike For The South]

Trump is a smokescreen so that Hillary has an easier time getting to the polls. She is calling in all her favors.

I want my America back.

[Sarmatian]

I want my America back.

Which America is that and do you have to have rose-tinted glasses to see it?

[Montmorency]

He wants Revolutionary America back so he can have something to fight for.

[a completely inoffensive name]

If I was a conspiracy guy, I would believe that Trump is a Democratic Party plant meant to embarrass the Republican Party. Trump has been on the record back in the early 2000s and 1990s as being very liberal with things such as universal health care.

The truth is probably closer to the fact that Trump has an extremely large ego, believes his background caters to Republicans more and thinks that the publicity driven by this will somehow cement his family name further into American history.

[Montmorency]

He profits from running. As in, he gets money as a direct consequence. Not necessarily from mattering, mind you, but from running.

[Hooahguy]

If I was a conspiracy guy, I would believe that Trump is a Democratic Party plant meant to embarrass the Republican Party. Trump has been on the record back in the early 2000s and 1990s as being very liberal with things such as universal health care.

The truth is probably closer to the fact that Trump has an extremely large ego, believes his background caters to Republicans more and thinks that the publicity driven by this will somehow cement his family name further into American history.

Both are good theories in my book, and I wouldnt be surprised at all if either of them turned out to be the truth.

[Husar]

http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/adm...dont-you-50895

And the TV spots are just the beginning. I know you, and I know what you like. You’ll absolutely eat it up when you see the “Trump ’16” T-shirts, the lawn signs, the bumper stickers; in fact, you’ll probably get a real kick out of pointing them out to your friends. Now, just imagine me shaking hands with senior citizens at a nursing home in Iowa. Wouldn’t you love to watch that? Or hear what comes out of my mouth when I speak to blue-collar workers at a struggling auto factory?

Yes, I absolutely do want to see this!

[Ironside]

Both are good theories in my book, and I wouldnt be surprised at all if either of them turned out to be the truth.

Do you honestly think Trump's ego would handle being a plant?

[Hooahguy]

Do you honestly think Trump's ego would handle being a plant?

I dont think he even realizes hes a plant. But just because the plant is clueless doesnt mean hes not a plant.

[Kralizec]

Trumps ego is hilarious. He sued a reporter once because he wrote that Trump's net worth was less than 1 billion USD, and demanded 5 billion USD in damages.

good stuff:
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...0-billion-too-

When they asked him about how he calculated his net worth, he noted that the figure “goes up and down with markets and with attitudes and with feelings, even my own feelings.” Later he added that “even my own feelings affect my value to myself.”

[rvg]

Trumps ego is hilarious. He sued a reporter once because he wrote that Trump's net worth was less than 1 billion USD, and demanded 5 billion USD in damages.

The more I hear Trump speak, the more I like him. I still think he's unelectable, but boy, he stands in such contrast to the usual rank'n'file weather vane politicians. Chris Christie is the only one who comes close, but he has him own electability issues.

[Hooahguy]

I thought this was the Onion at first...


Is it wrong that I really want to see this happen?

[whyidie]

If I was a conspiracy guy, I would believe that Trump is a Democratic Party plant meant to embarrass the Republican Party. Trump has been on the record back in the early 2000s and 1990s as being very liberal with things such as universal health care.

Heh, if we had to vote on conspiracy theories I'd go the other way. Trump makes the other GOP candidates look more palatable to the gooey middle which will decide the election in the battleground states. Case in point, Rick Perry has someone he can call nuts. Quite a turn around from 4 years ago.

The more I hear Trump speak, the more I like him. I still think he's unelectable, but boy, he stands in such contrast to the usual rank'n'file weather vane politicians. Chris Christie is the only one who comes close, but he has him own electability issues.

Christy would be interesting. I think he is one of the few GOP candidates who could win a general election.

Best shot for GOP is to flip FL, OH, VA and one of the mountain west states (CO, NV, NM).

Only candidates they have that are capable of pulling it off are Kasich, Bush, and Christie. Everyone else is noise. They're playing for the 2nd prize of book/tv/campaign money.

[a completely inoffensive name]

TRUMP IS GOING TO THE DEBATE. Muh American Dream coming true.

[Hooahguy]

My mother, who is fairly conservative, wanted to watch the debates with my brother and I so we armed ourselves with a suite of sitcom crowd noises in preparation for the event.

[Hooahguy]

So that was a pretty interesting debate.

For Trump, he basically admitted to bribing politicians and that he was fine making degrading comments about Hispanic immigrants and women, and when asked if he would pledge to not run third party, his reaction can be very, very accurately summed up as this: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Seeing Christie and Rand Paul go at it over the 4th Amendment was interesting, especially since Christie lied about when he was appointed as US attorney for New Jersey. He kept repeating it was the day before the 9/11 attacks when in reality he wasnt nominated until December after the attacks and didnt take office until January of 2002. But more amusing was his loud argument with Paul, where Rand kept repeating "Use the Fourth Amendment!" to which Christie didnt really seem able to give a good reply to. Oh yeah, and then they argued over Christie giving Obama a hug after Hurricane Sandy. Really.

Walker mentioned his Harley motorcycle only once, surprisingly, and then mentioned busting the unions, which is also funny because Harleys are famously made by union workers.

I kinda wish they would have given Cruz more talking time as I like how he argues. I might hate everything he stands for but he is a great debater and I respect him for that. And speaking of talking times, the New York Times clocked in most candidates around the 6:46 length, but Trump had well over 11 minutes to talk while some, like Rand Paul, had as few as not even 5 and a half minutes. Probably because Trump muscled his way into more talking time.

I have a feeling that they purposely let Trump go on talking because they want him out of the race ASAP, and by letting him run his mouth they are gambling on him saying something that will crash him campaign. A risky gamble to say the least.

Anybody else watch the debates?

Should also mention Fiorina did a pretty good job in the "loser debates" and outshone the others on stage, and quite possibly secured a VP nomination at the very least I think.

[Husar]

So it will be Trump with Fiorina as VP?

I mean if the others can't even wrestle speaking time from Trump, how can they wrestle the nuke from Iran??!!?!?!?!?!111

[Hooahguy]

So it will be Trump with Fiorina as VP?

I mean if the others can't even wrestle speaking time from Trump, how can they wrestle the nuke from Iran??!!?!?!?!?!111

Nah, didnt Trump say that he wanted Palin as his VP? That would be a fun nomination. But thats a valid point, Im trying to figure out Trumps end game (besides winning the general election). Hes basically holding the GOP hostage, and from an outsider its pretty amusing. Though I cannot imagine the amount of sheer terror that the GOP establishment is having over Trump still leading the polls by a good amount from what I can tell.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The GOP will try to kill trump by just ignoring him since attacking him during the debates did not work out as well as they thought. The media will spend less coverage. By the next debate more than a few will drop out from pressure or lack of funds. At that point they will pick the chosen ones which will receive all the attention and poll stronger for it.

[Hooahguy]

So because everyone knows how much of a joke the 2016 election is, a third party candidate named Deez Nuts is polling in North Carolina at 9%. Shame the guy behind it is only in high school.

Link to story:

Wednesday was a big day for Deez Nuts. First he won 9% of the vote as an independent in a Public Policy Polling poll of voters in North Carolina – which, on top of recent results of 8% in Minnesota and 7% in Iowa from previous polls, makes him what experts confirmed is the most successful independent candidate for president in two decades.

I dont know whether to laugh or to cry at this point.