POTUS Election thread

[Hooahguy]

I got my results from Politico. Strange how the reporting isnt consistent this late afterwards.

[Viking]

That overview appears to include superdelegates in the state statistics. Note how it says that Sanders and Clinton both got 15 candidates from New Hampshire, even though Sanders got 60% of the vote.

[Beskar]

You cannot even make these things up...

[Greyblades]

Haven't you heard?



So have you seen him, seen kyle?

[Hooahguy]

That overview appears to include superdelegates in the state statistics. Note how it says that Sanders and Clinton both got 15 candidates from New Hampshire, even though Sanders got 60% of the vote.

Ah, ok I did not realize that, thank you for pointing that out. I stand corrected.

[Beskar]

Haven't you heard?
So have you seen him, seen kyle?

It was more the oath swearing ceremony, and how he was going on about how if they don't vote for him now, very bad things will happen to them.

The right-hand salute was simply icing on the cake.

[Husar]

Bill O'Reilly and Bernie Sanders seem to get along just fine, does that mean Sanders could unite America again?

[Shaka_Khan]

Hillary plant confirmed.

[Sarmatian]

Sanders wins Michigan, even though polls predicted Hillary's gonna win.

This is gonna go on until summer probably.

[Viking]

Kasich did somewhat worse than I expected, but Rubio even more so.

Didn't see Sanders winning Michigian, but he got Bernt pretty badly in Mississippi, anyway.

[Hooahguy]

Certainly a very surprising win for Sanders in Michigan. But it was just a morale booster as Clinton still came away with more delegates in the end due to the blowout in Mississippi . I read that the huge discrepancy in polling and results might have come by over sampling democratic voters, not including independents who can vote due to it being an open primary. But Bernie needs to win New York and California to get the nomination and since those primaries are closed (last I remember anyways) I don't see him having much of a chance. But the victory in Michigan will further extend this race and prevent Hillary from pivoting to focus on the general election.

If anything yesterday proved that it was more about demographics than polling results.

[Husar]

Obama talking about the Republican candidates:

https://www.facebook.com/IamFreddieB...3443510543861/

[Beskar]

Obama talking about the Republican candidates:

https://www.facebook.com/IamFreddieB...3443510543861/

Going to miss him, he did good despite being roadblocked at every single corner by Republicans.

[Sarmatian]

Obama was a good president, both for the US and the rest of the world.

He maybe shouldn't have compromised as much as he did, but, as some time passes, he will be recognized as one of the better ones.

[Viking]

I read that the huge discrepancy in polling and results might have come by over sampling democratic voters, not including independents who can vote due to it being an open primary.

Here's a slightly different take, showing how several different factors together could have conspired to the misleading polling results.

[Hooahguy]

Here's a slightly different take, showing how several different factors together could have conspired to the misleading polling results.

I was actually about to post that! Another aspect which I think had a massive effect is that protectionism is big in Michigan due to the flagging auto industry which was blamed on NAFTA and foreign cars. Bernie railed against NAFTA while Hillary supported it. I think that is what swung things in his favor as well.

[Greyblades]

Going to miss him, he did good despite being roadblocked at every single corner by Republicans.

Obama was a good president, both for the US and the rest of the world.

He maybe shouldn't have compromised as much as he did, but, as some time passes, he will be recognized as one of the better ones.

A little early to be judging his tenure, isnt it? Oh well.

I think Obama is America's Could've-Been-King: he had both House and Senate in his party's hands for the first three years and in theory the Democrats could have retained the momentum. Getting much of his campaign promises fulfilled in that time I believe would have been enough to continue their dominance but they didnt* and once the 2011 elections rolled over that was it; The House of Representatives became Republican and Obama's hands became tied and the democrats would fail to recover, even losing the senate in 2015.

After Bush America wanted an A+ president, needed it even. Obama looked like he could have been that President during his campaign but he turned out to be a B- at best, and the dissapointment is biting the democrats in the ass.

[Hooahguy]

A little early to be judging his tenure, isnt it? Oh well.

I think Obama is America's Could've-Been-King: he had both House and Senate in his party's hands for the first three years and in theory the Democrats could have retained the momentum. Getting much of his campaign promises fulfilled in that time I believe would have been enough to continue their dominance but they didnt* and once the 2011 elections rolled over that was it; The House of Representatives became Republican and Obama's hands became tied and the democrats would fail to recover, even losing the senate in 2015.

After Bush America wanted an A+ president, needed it even. Obama looked like he could have been that President during his campaign but he turned out to be a B- at best, and the dissapointment is biting the democrats in the ass.

I think an issue was that he rammed through Obamacare not realizing the blowback it would have in the 2010 midterm election, losing them the House of Representatives. Or maybe he realized the Democrats were going to lose the House anyways and got through what he saw was a vital piece of legislation.

[Greyblades]

Going by how the democrats kept going downhill even after Obamacare became yesterday's news I'm inclined to believe the latter.

Republicans will say it's because he did too much, the democrats: too little, but whether it was down to his actions or that of others it is unlikely that he will be remembered as fondly as Lincoln, FDR or Kennedy.

[Hooahguy]

I think the losses in congressional seats have more to do with the democrats being really lousy at mobilization, especially in midterm elections.

But yeah he won't be a JFK or anything like that and to compare him to Lincoln is silly to begin with, but I think in the end he will be remembered more fondly than Bush, probably along the lines of Clinton than anything else.

[Beskar]

I think it was more related to the radicalisation of the right. You have a large segment who are hypersalivating over policies which are simply bad, but play into an alternative reality mindset, versus a more generally apathetic and diverse population. So yes, there are mobilization issues for democrat supporters by comparison.

[Viking]

Two fresh polls from Illinois disagree on who comes first, but there is one thing they both agree on:



(Sanders in dark blue)

[Viking]

Sanders is ahead of Clinton in Missouri by one point according to the latest, sizeable poll there.

[Hooahguy]

So Rubio is out, Trump wins Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina. Kasich wins Ohio and Cruz might win Missouri. Meanwhile, Hillary wins handily in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Will probably win Illinois (results not fully in yet) and its close in Missouri with Sanders in the lead.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

On the GOP side, only T. Cruz and D. Trump have a mathematical chance to secure the nomination prior to the convention.

Cruz, so far, has earned 406 of a possible 1398 delegates (29.1%) and would have to earn 831 of the remaining 1079 (77%) to secure the nomination at large.

Trump, so far, has earned 661 of a possible 1398 delegates (47.3%) and would have to earn 676 of the remaining 1079 (62.7%) to secure the nomination at large.


Given that Cruz would have to, essentially, triple his delegate earnings, it is unlikely that he can secure the nomination prior to the convention even if he runs the table and wins all remaining states. The remaining proportional primaries effectively render his outright win impossible even if he were to win every winner-take-all contest remaining.

Trump has a better shot. Much will depend on Rubio supporters and where they migrate with him out of the race. If they go for Kasich or Cruz in large part (regardless of combination) then this will go to the convention. If a large bloc of them shift to Trump, giving him bigger proportional victories and more wins in the winter-take-all category, it is possible that a sense of "inevitability" will suppress non-Trump votes and allow him to squeak out enough delegates for an at large win. However, the more likely result sees Trump earning about 55% of the remaining delegates and falling short by about 80-100 delegates.

Thus, we are likely to see the first "contested" convention in the USA since Adlai Stevenson, on the third convention ballot, secured the chance to lose to Eisenhower in 1952.

Historically, contested convention candidates for the Democrats have fared really poorly against their opponents with about a 30% win rate -- including the era when contested conventions were more the "norm." By contrast, the win/loss rate for Republican candidates following a contested convention has been much closer to the success rate of an at-large republican nominee. This is because, traditionally, the GOP has always been the more organized and unified party -- something that is decidedly NOT in evidence this year after a decade of TEA party internal opposition.

It is likely to be an 'interesting' electoral year (but remember, the Chinese use 'interesting' as a curse).

[Viking]

Kasich outlasts Rubio: check

Much will depend on Rubio supporters and where they migrate with him out of the race. If they go for Kasich or Cruz in large part (regardless of combination) then this will go to the convention.

Especially notable in this context, is Utah on Tuesday. Rubio had a 2% lead there in a poll from February.

[HopAlongBunny]

A Trump, Hillary contest looks like a lock.
More of the same, or a bandwagon for snake-oil

[Viking]

Especially notable in this context, is Utah on Tuesday. Rubio had a 2% lead there in a poll from February.

Latest Utah poll: Cruz up 31%, Kasich up 25%. Trump down 7%.

[naut]

Latest Utah poll: Cruz up 31%, Kasich up 25%. Trump down 7%.

If there's one state that's gonna be put off by a candidate talking about their penis, it's Utah

The poll revealed that Utah voters would completely reject Trump. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 38%-36% while Bernie Sanders leads Trump 48%-37%.

The poll in Utah highlights the degree to which many Republicans won’t vote at all if Trump is the nominee. Republicans aren’t going rally around Trump. Donald Trump also isn’t bringing millions of new people into the Republican camp.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Utah has how many electors? 6?