British Election: peaceful revolution

[InsaneApache]

Real Time Update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

Tomorrow we will have a change of government. It's all to play for, for the two main legacy parties. The Lib Dems are stuffed, just look at the Euro elections last year to see that.

Red Ted Milliband wants to take us back to the seventies, (nothing wrong with that, I'm polishing my Doc Martens and dusting down my copy of Funhouse as we type!). Ahh yes the halcyon days of rampant inflation, power cuts, the three day week and wildcat strikes. I can't wait!

Perhaps we can get Dick Emery to resurrect his 'comedy' show as well.

As for the Tories, well what a bunch of tossers. They've moved so far to the left since Blair they should re-name themselves the SDP.

It looks as though Wee Jimmy Crankie of the SNP fancies herself as the power broker in a future government. Nice. 5% of the population deciding what the other 95% can get. True democracy.

That Welsh bird with the tits is quite nice though.

The Greens. They should all be sectioned under the Mental Health Act 1983.

Me? I'm voting for the only party that talks anything like common sense. UKIP.

[Sir Moody]

for anyone who is interested - current high and low predictions of seats:

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	253	281	310	-25
Labour	238	266	295	8
SNP	44	52	57	46
Liberal Democrats	20	26	32	-31
DUP	7	8	10	0
Plaid Cymru	2	4	6	1
SDLP	1	3	3	0
UKIP	0	1	3	1
Greens	0	1	1	0
Other	7	8	10	0

326 is required for a Majority so no party will make it without Coalition.

UKIP will be lucky to hold onto the seats they currently have and will at most gain 1... and considering they had to withdraw a candidate today for saying he would shoot his Conservative opponent in the head if he ever became Prime Minister (apparently because he wasn't British enough since his parents had only been in the country since the 70's...) I would hardly call them the "party that talks common sense"...

[InsaneApache]

I would hardly call them the "party that talks common sense"..

Considering that the legacy parties have members who have been convicted of arson, terrorism, fraud and paedophilia threatening to shoot a Tory in the head (and miss his brain by 6 feet) is tame in comparison.

[Crandar]

Well, it's a pity that there's no communist party in the UK. I would probably vote for the conservatives, as they are the only ones that could possibly provide a national leader comparable to Thatcher.

To paraphrase the Iron Lady, they're a weak lot, some of them in the United Kingdom you know. Weak. Feeble.

[Greyblades]

Shall we begin reenacting a rampant press war or just accuse eachother of being tossers and call it a day?

for anyone who is interested - current high and low predictions of seats:

Predicted by who?

[Sir Moody]

The biggest Irony of this whole election is AV - had the Conservatives not crushed the AV vote and we had adopted it, the predictions show they would almost certainly have a crushing Majority

Honestly however I don't see how any Majority can be made - the Conservatives only have the Liberals and the DUP who would support them in a coalition while Labour requires the SNP who everyone is determined to shun...

My predictions is another election within the year...

[Sir Moody]

Shall we begin reenacting a rampant press war or just accuse eachother of being tossers and call it a day?



Predicted by who?

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The biggest Irony of this whole election is AV - had the Conservatives not crushed the AV vote and we had adopted it, the predictions show they would almost certainly have a crushing Majority

Honestly however I don't see how any Majority can be made - the Conservatives only have the Liberals and the DUP who would support them in a coalition while Labour requires the SNP who everyone is determined to shun...

My predictions is another election within the year...

Maybe - but the Guardian has a "Tactical Vote" map: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ote-tactically

You'll notice that in both cases outside Scotland they advise you to vote Lib-Dem. If the Lib-Dems and the Cons can form another government they will, because as much as they may not love each other they have managed to work together and neither likes the current version of Labour.

You're right about the AV thing, primarily because of the rise of UK, with AV UKIP basically gets no seats and the vast majority of their votes would get re-directed to the Cons.

Me, I'm praying the Scots have a sudden attack of conscience and accept they SNP pays for everything with money from other parts of the UK, including the poorest parts like North Wales, the North East, and Cornwall.

[Fragony]

Just wondering why I can't vote for Farage just because I'm Dutch. The EU, what a farce.

[Husar]

Just wondering why I can't vote for Farage just because I'm Dutch. The EU, what a farce.

Yes, that you can't vote for the government of the UK is entirely the EU's fault.
I also can't get over the fact that I don't get to vote for the Norwegian queen, stupid EU.

[Greyblades]

Hrm, the conservative blogs are throwing this around saying milliband has promised to make islamaphobia a hate crime. If it were true it would be a great way to make me, a recent appreciator of free speech, vote against his party, which is probably why they are spreading it around and why I want confirmation before tomorrow, which I can't find.

Politics, huh.

[Sir Moody]

Hrm, the conservative blogs are throwing this around saying milliband has promised to make islamaphobia a hate crime. If it were true it would be a great way to make me, a recent appreciator of free speech, vote against his party, which is probably why they are spreading it around and why I want confirmation before tomorrow, which I can't find.

Politics, huh.

errr last time I checked it already was a Hate crime along side antisemitism - the article doesn't really go into details of what Miliband is actually proposing which suggests he is simply trying to drum up the Islamic vote and isn't planning to do anything...

as you say - Politics huh...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Hrm, the conservative blogs are throwing this around saying milliband has promised to make islamaphobia a hate crime. If it were true it would be a great way to make me, a recent appreciator of free speech, vote against his party, which is probably why they are spreading it around and why I want confirmation before tomorrow, which I can't find.

Politics, huh.

Well, if it helps I can tell you that Labour tried this before, under Gordon Brown, though they tried to outlaw all "religious prejudice" so you also wouldn't be able to say flat-earthers are nuts.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

errr last time I checked it already was a Hate crime along side antisemitism - the article doesn't really go into details of what Miliband is actually proposing which suggests he is simply trying to drum up the Islamic vote and isn't planning to do anything...

as you say - Politics huh...

Irrc it's not, and anti-Semetism is a race-hate crime as far as I know.

[Sarmatian]

Just wondering why I can't vote for Farage just because I'm Dutch. The EU, what a farce.

You should be rejoicing that you can't.

Down with the EU, empower the nation state!!!

[InsaneApache]

Hrm, the conservative blogs are throwing this around saying milliband has promised to make islamaphobia a hate crime. If it were true it would be a great way to make me, a recent appreciator of free speech, vote against his party, which is probably why they are spreading it around and why I want confirmation before tomorrow, which I can't find.

Politics, huh.

http://www.secularism.org.uk/news/20...-what-he-means

Nice. Now those rape gangs in Yorkshire and across the rest of the north can kneel easy on their prayer mats.

The main reason I don't like the Labour party is that it is based on hate, spite and envy. I have first hand experience of these types. Many years ago, 1973 to be precise, I met Jenny Lee. She turned up in this huge black roller, clad from top to bottom in Norman Hartnell and dripping in gold. She was cheered to the rafters by all these raggy arsed scousers who could barely afford shoes.

"She's one of us", they cried.

I looked at them, in their threadbare clothes and then at this Baroness, replete with gold bling and fancy car and thought that they were quite mad. She coudn't be any further away from them if she went to live on Pluto.

Don't even get me going about her husband Nye Bevan and that evil twisted little get Manny Shinwell.

[a completely inoffensive name]

More of the same. With all of the time spent talking about UKIP, I thought they would be at least breaking double digit numbers in parliament. What a joke.

[Sir Moody]

More of the same. With all of the time spent talking about UKIP, I thought they would be at least breaking double digit numbers in parliament. What a joke.

UKIP are a victim of the FPTP system - they will get a large amount of the "popular" vote - this doesn't however translate into seats - thank god...

[Greyblades]

It's hard to gain support to split the EU while everyone's worried about trying to preserve the UK.

Still, it is tempting to put a vote in thier pile, just to put some fear into both the big 3 parties and the EU.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

More of the same. With all of the time spent talking about UKIP, I thought they would be at least breaking double digit numbers in parliament. What a joke.

they'll likely get between a tenth and a sixth of the vote, out performing the Lib-Dems by a considerable margin, but this will not translate into seats. What they will actually achieve will be to undercute the Conservative vote, and as the Cons have committed to an in-out Referendum if they win a majority UKIP have become self defeating.

If what they wanted was a referendum then they would have rescued themselves from the election and told all their supporters to vote Tory.

[InsaneApache]

It's never 'self defeating' to vote for what you believe in.

[Papewaio]

You need to modernize with preferential voting.

[Gilrandir]

Yes, that you can't vote for the government of the UK is entirely the EU's fault.
I also can't get over the fact that I don't get to vote for the Norwegian queen, stupid EU.

First one must make her electable and thus create paneuropean Rzeczpospolita.

[Rhyfelwyr]

I will be voting Labour purely as a tactical vote against the SNP.

[InsaneApache]

I will be voting Labour purely as a tactical vote against the SNP.

Thats like a choice of being stabbed in the face or stabbed in the crown jewels mate.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Thats like a choice of being stabbed in the face or stabbed in the crown jewels mate.

Indeed it is, but I consider the SNP to be the more immediate threat. Once the nationalists lose their momentum, then I can worry about other things.

[Beskar]

Unfortunately in the debate, Nicola Sturgeon was pretty much the winner. I would have voted SNP if they didn't exclude themselves to Scotland.

[Beskar]

Many years ago, 1973 to be precise, I met Jenny Lee. She turned up in this huge black roller, clad from top to bottom in Norman Hartnell and dripping in gold. She was cheered to the rafters by all these raggy arsed scousers who could barely afford shoes.

"She's one of us", they cried.

I looked at them, in their threadbare clothes and then at this Baroness, replete with gold bling and fancy car and thought that they were quite mad. She coudn't be any further away from them if she went to live on Pluto.

You know, if you replace "Jenny Lee" with "Nigel Farage", turning up with his city banker background at the 'local pub to drink a pint with the working class', and replacing "Scousers" with "UKIP Supporters", you have the year 2015 equivalent.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It's never 'self defeating' to vote for what you believe in.

No, but if what you believe is that we should have a referendum on the EU you should vote Conservative. On the other hand, if you believe UKIP are a better party for government, I would have to disagree.

You need to modernize with preferential voting.

Perhaps not:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32594267

"UK election exit poll predicts Conservatives will be largest party in a hung parliament, with 316 seats to Labour's 239. Survey by NOP/Mori for BBC, ITV and Sky"

"More details on the exit poll. It predicts the Liberal Democrats will have just 10 seats - a loss of 47 from 2010. The SNP is predicted to win 58 seats - every constituency bar one in Scotland. UKIP is forecast to have two, as is the Green Party. Plaid Cymru is expected to go up one to four."

Arithmetic favours the Conservatives being able to form a government with the Lib-Dems and the DUP propping them up, interestingly it looks like the Cons are stealing seats from the Lib-Dems and Labour both. If these polls prove to be accurate then it effectively excludes Labour from Government (again) and therefore locks out the SNP. What's troubling is the small number of Lib-Dem seats, that makes a formal Coalition less likely which in turn means less moderation of George Osborne and a less stable government generally.

The other big take away here is that the SNP will basically hold Scotland, which means that if they aren't in government or propping the government up then the Scots will effectively have no control over the direction of the Executive or the Legislative Timetable. In my opinion this shows the danger of having one ideology (Socialism) and one party grip an entire country, by voting SNP after voting to remain in the Union Scots may see themselves more disenfranchised than at any time in the previous 300 years.

I will be voting Labour purely as a tactical vote against the SNP.

A poor tactical choice, as Labour and the SNP will clump together if they can form a majority, further increasing the power of the SNP.

[a completely inoffensive name]

UKIP gained a seat from what I heard, watch out EU, the nationalists are coming for you!