IMMIGRATION thread

[Sarmatian]

No, it is to say that we're dealing with probabilities rather than a proven/not proven dichotomy. In general.

Funnily enough, your probability evidence was proven completely false. In all probability, you probably have no idea what you're talking about but are probably repeating what you read on the probably first internet site that comes up in google. You should probably devote some more time befory you're caught again with low probablity of probable evidence.

For someone who admits he is dealing in probabilities, your posts are amazingly full of certainties. One would think a little more caution would be used if you were aware of that.

[Viking]

With respect to the number of innocent lives, with respect to the stability of the country, with respect to the basic social services destroyed for nothing.

If you can choose between having 100 people killed and those 100 people + 900 other people (=1000 in total) killed, the first scenario is trivially preferable. If you can choose between 100 people killed and 1000 people different from the first group of 100, it's not trivial any more. That's why I asked the question that you dodged. Chances are great that many Libyans who currently are alive would have been killed by the Gaddafi regime if it had not lost.

Given how many Libyans felt like revolting, one wonders how adequate those social services were.

It would not have been in the regime's best interest to target civilians. Misrata, Zawiya, Zuwara, Ajdabiya - no bloodbaths when retaken and those were the ones that were actually retaken by the government.

Misrata was never completely recaptured by the regime. One might not have expected a bloodbath in any of the recaptured cities, but innocent/peaceful people getting sucked in by a crackdown on regime opponents is highly likely.

And of course, taking up arms against a dictator is, regardless, normally considered heroic and not something to get executed for.

Air support and crippling the regime certainly did.

That's another topic.

Because they lack that sovereignty. It is only because of Saudi Arabia and USA's aligned interests in the region that makes the funding of Islamists a common foreign policy initiative.

Not buying it.

Entrusting these militias to pull the country back together after bombing the hell out of it and kicking the regime that held it together for decades aside is the stupidity here. NATO shouldn't have done anything.

The militias weren't really entrusted with anything. Invading Iraq and Afghanistan didn't turn out all that great, so there was some hope and/or expectation that not using ground forces would yield a better result. Thus far, the results do not look particularly promising; although a more complete understanding of the consequences of the intervention is probably still many decades away.

The chaos Libya has seen thus far might make politicians weary of trying similar interventions in the future, but then they'd have to deal with negative consequences of not intervening, like a steady flow of people applying for political asylum (in the weirdest of ways), so-called human rights abuses, and whatever else is on the dictator's CV.

This:

Is enough to see through how the coverage of the war as it unfolded is propoganda. Same goes for Syria.

Huh?

Funnily enough, your probability evidence was proven completely false.

No, the animal bones were not the evidence (it was mentioned in the article that bones there didn't look human); but long-standing claims of a massacre at Abu Salim (claims backed up by several individuals who were in the prison at the time). I initially considered linking to Wikipedia, but thought it better to use an actual news source.

Even if you presume that no massacre did occur at Abu Salim, you have the people searching for relatives that went missing during the Gaddafi regime - two of them interviewed in that very article. This contradicts the "no evidence" line, which was all I indented to.

[AE Bravo]

If you can choose between having 100 people killed and those 100 people + 900 other people (=1000 in total) killed, the first scenario is trivially preferable. If you can choose between 100 people killed and 1000 people different from the first group of 100, it's not trivial any more. That's why I asked the question that you dodged. Chances are great that many Libyans who currently are alive would have been killed by the Gaddafi regime if it had not lost.

What do you have to go by? There is little to no reason to believe that more people would have died. Why are the chances GREAT??? I dodged because this is not an argument, I have no interest in these philosophical responses. Give me numbers and the details of the conflicts, the state of Libyans during and post-intervention that show me you actually care about Libya and not your responsibility to protect fantasy.

Adequate or not, this is not enough to justify a humanitarian intervention like the one NATO conducted. If you are not entirely committed and are driven by the sole motive of removing a renegade head of state, you are not presenting a model humanitarian intervention or a good precedent for anything. It set a bad precedent and reveals how they are not to be trusted, because they evidently don’t place a country and its population's interest in high regard.

And of course, taking up arms against a dictator is, regardless, normally considered heroic and not something to getexecuted for.

The persecutions, executions, and banishment of black Libyans today is far worse than what the regime had ever done in its history.

Not buying it.

USA, Turkey, and some Gulf countries have an agreement in that propping up Islamists as opposition to regimes they don’t want in power is the way to go now.

Thus far, the results do not look particularly promising; although a more complete understanding of the consequences of the intervention is probably still many decades away.

The operation itself was hardly promising. It was a bloodbath and brought suffering on a wider scale than Qaddafi’s crackdown. It’s easy to see “promising” from your tv set or the quick google search hoping for a new democratic country to emerge.

[Papewaio]

No, it's even worse - I was making an abstruse philosophical point out of radical scepticism.

Carry on.

That is a posh way to sum up the schlong measuring contests of the Backroom...

[Viking]

What do you have to go by? There is little to no reason to believe that more people would have died. Why are the chances GREAT??? I dodged because this is not an argument, I have no interest in these philosophical responses. Give me numbers and the details of the conflicts, the state of Libyans during and post-intervention that show me you actually care about Libya and not your responsibility to protect fantasy.

Adequate or not, this is not enough to justify a humanitarian intervention like the one NATO conducted. If you are not entirely committed and are driven by the sole motive of removing a renegade head of state, you are not presenting a model humanitarian intervention or a good precedent for anything. It set a bad precedent and reveals how they are not to be trusted, because they evidently don’t place a country and its population's interest in high regard.

I do not call it a 'humanitarian intervention'. When I said that the chances were great, I was referring to another point.

Namely the point that whether or not there is an intervention has an effect on who dies and what for. Without an intervention, civilians opposing the regime would have a greater chance of dying (and those associating with them in whatever way) than other civilians. With the intervention, the civilians most likely to die are supporters of a brutal dictatorship (plus local factors).

In sum: different people die with and without an intervention. So when you oppose the intervention, you OK that these people who would otherwise not have been killed end up dead.

And how many did die? Good luck finding out.

The operation itself was hardly promising. It was a bloodbath and brought suffering on a wider scale than Qaddafi’s crackdown. It’s easy to see “promising” from your tv set or the quick google search hoping for a new democratic country to emerge.

If the fighting made a "bloodbath" after the intervention had started, it would be just as much because Gaddafi refused to give up. And why would he - I am sure his conscience was very far from clean. Good things weren't waiting for him.

It’s easy to see “promising” from your tv set or the quick google search hoping for a new democratic country to emerge.

Fiction.

But I got to ask how many Libyans you've asked about whether or not the intervention was a bad thing, and for those who say it was a bad thing: if that's the opinion they've held all the time or if it is based on hindsight.

You have repeatedly been morally indignant on behalf of Libya(ns), so I wonder how many Libyans you've actually heard the opinion of. Not nearly enough to be able to reasonably claim to speak on the behalf of a majority of Libyans, I suspect.

[AE Bravo]

Thus, in total, the Libyan government’s high-end estimate of the conflict’s death toll, as of January 2013, is 11,500.
These two estimates of 8,000 and 11,500—by the U.S. and Libyan governments, respectively—conceivably bound the actual number killed in the conflict. If so, and if the counterfactual analysis above is correct, then NATO intervention magnified the death toll in Libya by about seven to ten times. This would be consistent both with city-level data provided by the rebels, indicating that the intervention multiplied the number of deaths in Tripoli and Misurata, and with NATO’s broadening of the geographic scope of fighting within the country. It also would confirm the speculation of knowledgeable observers, such as Seumas Milne, who opined at the war’s end that “while the death toll in Libya when NATO intervened was perhaps around 1,000–2,000 (judging by UN estimates), eight months later it is probably more than ten times that figure.”59

If the fighting made a "bloodbath" after the intervention had started, it would be just as much because Gaddafi refused to give up. And why would he - I am sure his conscience was very far from clean. Good things weren't waiting for him.

No, no not just as much.

But I got to ask how many Libyans you've asked about whether or not the intervention was a bad thing, and for those who say it was a bad thing: if that's the opinion they've held all the time or if it is based on hindsight.

Hindsight.

[Fragony]

lol, way to make yourselve popular. A petition to ban the unislamic oktoberfest in Munich. Germans just got to love that. Votes are really marginal, a few hundreds, but these few hundred really should go somewhere else. I wonder how marginal these votes really are, as only naturalised refugees can vote, there are thousands more in Munich. Demands already they just arrived.

[Montmorency]

stop reading quality media it was a prank petition on Change.org

[Myth]

The first death of a "migrant" on the EU border happned last night in Bulgaria.

A group of 50 men who claim to be from Afghanistan entered Bulgarian territory illegally, through mountanous terrain, and were about 80 or so kilometers inside Bulgaria when they were confronted by a team of 3 border policemen who were sent to investigate an alarm by the automatic perimeter system.

One of them was armed, and they allegedly tried to intimade the guardsmen. The border patrol produced a warning shot, but this happened under a bridge and the ricochet wounded the illegal migrant. He died en route to the hospital, the rest were detained and taken to a refugee camp.

On the body of the dead man was found a loaded pistol and a mobile phone with two sim cards. The men are described to be 54 in number, aged 20 to 35 and in good physical condition.

Migrants? I think not.

They entered the border illegally, and were trudging through forested mountanous terrain at 10 PM in the cover of darkness. Yet, now the EU liberals are crying over the poor, defensless migrant who died.

Newsflash: if you seek asylum and refugee status, you go through the border checkpoints. Not through the mountains, not whilst carrying weapons and not in a brigade of 50 able bodied men, not during the cover of darkness and definitely you do not try to intimidate the boreder patrol once discovered.

[Fragony]

Migrants yes, refugees no.

Hey Merkel, thanks

And gutmensch was so devestated when Wilers warned for an islamic tsunami, who's right now. Can we please gently but firmly escort gutmensch to his library and stuff his pipe so he feels comfortable by now.

[Fragony]

stop reading quality media it was a prank petition on Change.org

Could be, but looks like it isn't. I'll be the first to apoligize if you are correct

[Sir Moody]

The first death of a "migrant" on the EU border happned last night in Bulgaria.

A group of 50 men who claim to be from Afghanistan entered Bulgarian territory illegally, through mountanous terrain, and were about 80 or so kilometers inside Bulgaria when they were confronted by a team of 3 border policemen who were sent to investigate an alarm by the automatic perimeter system.

One of them was armed, and they allegedly tried to intimade the guardsmen. The border patrol produced a warning shot, but this happened under a bridge and the ricochet wounded the illegal migrant. He died en route to the hospital, the rest were detained and taken to a refugee camp.

On the body of the dead man was found a loaded pistol and a mobile phone with two sim cards. The men are described to be 54 in number, aged 20 to 35 and in good physical condition.

Migrants? I think not.

They entered the border illegally, and were trudging through forested mountanous terrain at 10 PM in the cover of darkness. Yet, now the EU liberals are crying over the poor, defensless migrant who died.

Newsflash: if you seek asylum and refugee status, you go through the border checkpoints. Not through the mountains, not whilst carrying weapons and not in a brigade of 50 able bodied men, not during the cover of darkness and definitely you do not try to intimidate the boreder patrol once discovered.

None of the major news networks are reporting the man was armed only that he was shot and killed... and the official statement of the Bulgarian police reads "None of the migrants were armed, but they put up resistance." so it may be a case of Chinese whispers

[Sarmatian]

On the body of the dead man was found a loaded pistol and a mobile phone with two sim cards. The men are described to be 54 in number, aged 20 to 35 and in good physical condition.

Migrants? I think not.

Obviously, they wanted to invade Bulgaria.

Let's all take a step back and remember, Castro took control of Cuba with 81 men.

[Fragony]

Obviously, they wanted to invade Bulgaria.

Let's all take a step back and remember, Castro took control of Cuba with 81 men.

That far a stretch that they weren't there with any good intentions? We should at least consider that. We would be idiots if we don't.

Feel free to call me an idiot anyway

[Montmorency]

Let's all take a step back and remember, Castro took control of Cuba with 81 men.

To be fair, he did it by sparking popular revolt in the Sierra Maestra mountains.

I doubt there's any popular Islamist sentiment brewing amongst the natives of southeastern Bulgaria, which by the way is far less forested and elevated than the Sierra Maestra.

[Fragony]

They are not from Bulgeria they just arive there

[Myth]

Sarmatian, if you like them so much be my guest, go to Afghanistan and get culturally enriched. Those were 50 able bodied men sneaking in through the dead of night, being guided via mobile phone. They attempted to intimitade the border guards. The report I read stated that at least one handgun was confiscaeted after the fact.

They didn't try to invade Bulgaria, I don't need your snide remarks. Their goal was to go further inside Europe.

[Sarmatian]

That far a stretch that they weren't there with any good intentions? We should at least consider that. We would be idiots if we don't.

Feel free to call me an idiot anyway

I'd be more afraid of 50 Red Star fans than of them, let's put it that way.

And 3 policemen would not be nearly enough in that case, trust me.

Sarmatian, if you like them so much be my guest, go to Afghanistan and get culturally enriched. Those were 50 able bodied men sneaking in through the dead of night, being guided via mobile phone. They attempted to intimitade the border guards. The report I read stated that at least one handgun was confiscaeted after the fact.

They didn't try to invade Bulgaria, I don't need your snide remarks. Their goal was to go further inside Europe.

Why don't you go there? That's approximately where you're from, no? It took us a while to civilize you. You should now help others. Go, fly my pretties! Fly!

Kidding aside - it is about time to stop this fear mongering. There are hundreds of thousands of refugees/immigrants, however you want to call them. Odds are, there will be idiots among them.

Considering these people have crossed half a world, in cold or heat, hunger, sometimes traveling with their families, sometimes worrying about them, with limited access to health care, been treated by some worse than cattle, forced into small camps with low hygiene, it's a credit they're holding so well.

I'd be seriously pissed off in their place by now.

[Sir Moody]

Sarmatian, if you like them so much be my guest, go to Afghanistan and get culturally enriched. Those were 50 able bodied men sneaking in through the dead of night, being guided via mobile phone. They attempted to intimitade the border guards. The report I read stated that at least one handgun was confiscaeted after the fact.

They didn't try to invade Bulgaria, I don't need your snide remarks. Their goal was to go further inside Europe.

Again since everyone has ignored me - the Official police statement says the migrants were NOT armed but were resisting - there is no mention of a recovered firearm in any report I have found.

[Fragony]

Again since everyone has ignored me - the Official police statement says the migrants were NOT armed but were resisting - there is no mention of a recovered firearm in any report I have found.

maybe it's bullshit, maybe it's not. I don't know as I can't

[Myth]

We can debate the origins of Bulgarians in another thread, but I'd like to quickly dispel the myth that we are turcic hordes. http://journals.plos.org/plosone/art...l.pone.0056779

"On the whole, in light of the most recent historical studies, which indicate a substantial proto-Bulgarian input to the contemporary Bulgarian people, our data suggest that a common paternal ancestry between the proto-Bulgarians and the Altaic and Central Asian Turkic-speaking populations either did not exist or was negligible."

According to Herodotus, the Thracians were the most numerous tribe in the region. They didn't magically disappear, nor did they get assimilated by much fewer people migrating over (like slavs, celts and the vaunted proto bulgarians). Serbians, Bulgarians, Macedonians - all of these are thracians in their DNA.

As far as the red star fans: sure, like any group of young hotheads with a flag above them, they can be dangerous. But these guys here seem coordinated and on a mission. That's more dangeorus IMO even if it's just a prospect and not a proven fact.

Sir Moody, the articles vary greatly, I agree. The same agency reports it one way in Bulgarian and another way in English. I'll wait for more credible sources and translate if necessary.

[Sarmatian]

We can debate the origins of Bulgarians in another thread, but I'd like to quickly dispel the myth that we are turcic hordes.

Funny, 'cause that's exactly what a member of a Turkic horde would say.

Anyway, even if it is just a prospect and not a proven fact, it is too dangerous. We'll have a talk with Greeks and Romanians and decide what we're gonna do with you.

As far as the red star fans: sure, like any group of young hotheads with a flag above them, they can be dangerous. But these guys here seem coordinated and on a mission. That's more dangeorus IMO even if it's just a prospect and not a proven fact.

Sir Moody, the articles vary greatly, I agree. The same agency reports it one way in Bulgarian and another way in English. I'll wait for more credible sources and translate if necessary.

50 coordinated men on a mission aren't stopped by a 3 border policemen.

Quarter of a million of those people passed through Serbia in the recent months and there hasn't been a single negative report so far. Calm your horses and put your arrows back in the quiver, my nomadic friend, these people are not a threat to your wimminfolk.

[wooly_mammoth]

We'll have a talk with Greeks and Romanians and decide what we're gonna do with you.

It it common knowledge in Romania that all Bulgarians are treacherous cucumber farmers.

[Viking]

No, no not just as much.

There is a fundamental disagreement here on how to do the moral calculus (or, rather, on whether there exists more than one "valid" way to do it).

[Greyblades]

Quarter of a million of those people passed through Serbia in the recent months and there hasn't been a single negative report so far. Calm your horses and put your arrows back in the quiver, my nomadic friend, these people are not a threat to your wimminfolk.

...I find it hard to believe that out of a quarter of a million people none of them caused trouble. If you haven't noticed humans aren't generally that well behaved.

[Husar]

...I find it hard to believe that out of a quarter of a million people none of them caused trouble. If you haven't noticed humans aren't generally that well behaved.

Yes, the Bulgarians brought a lot of crime to Germany for example. We should have never let these countries in the east join the EU because they're all filthy barbarians who have no business being in an exclusive club with us rich western high elves, they just want to leech our money.

Oh wait, they're not the poorest anymore, of course I mean to say the Syrians should not be allowed to leech off our rich, cool Bulgarian, Romanian and Polish half-elf brothers. These people have no business in our cool euro-elite club and they only bring crime and problems and I fully support our Bulgarian half-elf brotherfriends in stopping them from leeching off their/our country.

Whew, almost misdirected my xenophobia at the newly rich who are cool now.

[Greyblades]

Er... Iwas referring to the statistical improbability that out of 250000 people not one committed a crime, regardless of ethnicity.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

[Husar]

Er... Iwas referring to the statistical improbability that out of 250000 people not one committed a crime, regardless of ethnicity.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

It was a ruse, I quoted you and then indirectly and sarcastically replied to someone else based on your assumption that no group of people is above bad behavior.
If no one ever notices I may get away with it.

[Sarmatian]

Er... Iwas referring to the statistical improbability that out of 250000 people not one committed a crime, regardless of ethnicity.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

They most certainly have, but nothing out of ordinary.

They weren't caged, they were given help, they were allowed to move freely. Kindergarten teachers brought kids out to refugee camps to play together. Doctors came to provide medical help. There were no confrontations with locals or the police, no women were raped, no rise in criminal activity.

In fact, it appears all you need to do is treat them like humans.

[Brenus]

“Again since everyone has ignored me - the Official police statement says the migrants were NOT armed but were resisting - there is no mention of a recovered firearm in any report I have found.” Hint: Don’t let reality spoiled a good story.

“Oh wait, they're not the poorest anymore, of course I mean to say the Syrians should not be allowed to leech off our rich, cool Bulgarian, Romanian and Polish half-elf brothers” Yeah, good old story: In France we said, don’t let these Arabs taking the jobs of our Portuguese…

“There were no confrontations with locals or the police, no women were raped, no rise in criminal activity.” C’mom, now, they were in SERBIA!!!! Remember, the worst of the Balkan countries, the butcher(s) of the Balkan…
https://youtu.be/a883c47yy5E
Even I will (was) frightened to death by Yugo 45.

“I'd be more afraid of 50 Red Star fans than of them, let's put it that way.:”
https://youtu.be/Gcf1-ejsKC4?list=PL...A1rNYc8npy7pOc