Chinese markets are collapsing.

[a completely inoffensive name]

And it's bringing down Korea, Japan and Australia with it. It was nice knowing all of you. Let's try to reconnect in 15 years if WW3 doesn't kill us all.

[Husar]

I heard the explosion in a US depot in Japan yesterday may have been chinese revenge for the explosion in the chinese port.

Is this the end of turbo capitalism?

I'm just kidding, I blame the refugees and the homeless!

[HopAlongBunny]

I'm just kidding, I blame the refugees and the homeless!

Well that's obvious! Takers as opposed to Makers!
Viv la revolution!

[Greyblades]

So does anyone have anything to say about it or are we just gonna repeat ideological platitudes at each other like usual?

[Husar]

So does anyone have anything to say about it or are we just gonna repeat ideological platitudes at each other like usual?

Apparently you don't have anything to say either and would rather leech the opinions of others then?
It doesn't seem too bad, nothing in the german Tagesschau and the buses here are still rolling.
In fact it looks like the Euro is doing great here, I'm getting richer without doing anything.

[Kadagar_AV]

That market was overvalued and expected to drop...

I think WW3 will wait.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

And now Kadagar is the first person in the thread to say something sensible.

And I tend to agree - unless China does something stupid then I think the world economy will bounce back in a few months because this was expected.

Also - anything that undermines Chinese or Russian power is good for us her at the Org, bbeing as we are almost all Western pig-dogs.

[HopAlongBunny]

That market was overvalued and expected to drop...

This.
When the drop came it exposed those who were highly leveraged; covering can mean selling winners and losers just to get cash; rinse/repeat.
All in all not as bad as it could have been.

[Kadagar_AV]

And now Kadagar is the first person in the thread to say something sensible.

And I tend to agree - unless China does something stupid then I think the world economy will bounce back in a few months because this was expected.

Also - anything that undermines Chinese or Russian power is good for us her at the Org, bbeing as we are almost all Western pig-dogs.

This is my "dog" (sprinkle of wolf) from when we last were to the kings place :)

We must also remember that many dogs are better humans than most humans...

I mean, I have been in love before... But when I got him, MAN, I am in love :D

So no, you won't get away with using "dog" as derogative even jokingly :p

[Papewaio]

Market doubled in 12 months and has dropped 6%.

So it is still double its value 13 months ago and will be back to what it was in another month or three.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

European markets jump: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34048785

[HopAlongBunny]

Apparently, this time its different.
God has his hands all over this one:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...ket-crash.html

Pat Robertson, market guru and voice-box of God has spoken.

[Gilrandir]

This is my "dog" (sprinkle of wolf) from when we last were to the kings place :)

Oh, come on! Everybody knows this is YOUR backyard.

[Kadagar_AV]

Oh, come on! Everybody knows this is YOUR backyard.

Ok, caught me... BUT NO IMMIGRATION, where would they live!!??

[Gilrandir]

Ok, caught me... BUT NO IMMIGRATION, where would they live!!??

You mean the royal family or immigrants?

[Kadagar_AV]

You mean the royal family or immigrants?

In Sweden, that's actually the same thing ;)

[lars573]

Show a monarchy where's that's not partially true.

[Greyblades]

Apparently you don't have anything to say either and would rather leech the opinions of others then?

Leech opinions? Sure, that's it, God fobid I could actually want to learn something from our dwindling pool of economically versed members instead of listening to another round of pithy mockery.

[Husar]

Leech opinions? Sure, that's it, God fobid I could actually want to learn something from our dwindling pool of economically versed members instead of listening to another round of pithy mockery.

The OP didn't even have a link and was over dramatizing as others have pointed out.
I even looked at the german press and can't find much about it. If it's not in the headlines there, it can't actually be very important, or so I thought. Fluctuations on financial markets happen all the time.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The OP didn't even have a link and was over dramatizing as others have pointed out.
I even looked at the german press and can't find much about it. If it's not in the headlines there, it can't actually be very important, or so I thought. Fluctuations on financial markets happen all the time.

Well it's front page on the BBC Website, or was.

So It's clearly important in the Anglo-sphere, and that's really all that matters.

[a completely inoffensive name]

European markets went up but US markets dropped another 1.3% today.

[rory_20_uk]

Well it's front page on the BBC Website, or was.

So It's clearly important in the Anglo-sphere, and that's really all that matters.

Given the finite amount of space in a newspaper I would rather have news that is relevant to me, being part of the anglosphere.

I am quietly confident that other countries have news that is focussed on their local needs.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Given the finite amount of space in a newspaper I would rather have news that is relevant to me, being part of the anglosphere.

I am quietly confident that other countries have news that is focussed on their local needs.

A collapse in the markets of the world's second-largest economy matters to everyone.

[Kadagar_AV]

A collapse in the markets of the world's second-largest economy matters to everyone.

Yes and no...

It is the second largest economy, but it is FAR from being the second largest stock interest market for people outside of China. Also, again, it was overvalued... People knew it was overvalued... It is expected to be overvalued.

What disrupts economy is when bubbles burst, this wasn't so much a "bubble" as a "oh my god look at that overblown economy, that's about to lose a lot".

[HopAlongBunny]

Couple of things that makes this scary.
Since the Western banks tanked the market, China has been the "Engine that Could"; growth and demand in China has helped float the world economy's boat.
China has told people to relax, figuring on 7% growth this year. Outside analysts have downplayed that figure, saying 4-5% is more likely.
No matter how low it goes, that slowdown reduces demand for resources which in turn constricts the economic growth potential of resource economies.
How bad the downturn actually becomes is an open question; China's economic data is pretty opaque, so if there is a train wreck in the offing, we will have no clue until we are sorting the rubbish.
On the other hand...

[Greyblades]

I don't suppose this has happened on this scale before?

[Kadagar_AV]

I don't suppose this has happened on this scale before?

Depends on what you mean...

There was this time in China when big swathes were all starving because of political decisions...

But as to the international stock market, this is a first. SHOCK, economies doesn't always trend up!!

It will of course affect us, but at the present level very little to miniscule.

[a completely inoffensive name]

You all fail to see the danger here. It's not about the markets at all. China needs to keep the 7% growth in order to maintain domestic stability. It's people are all on the east coast, and continue to flock away from the countryside. Slowing down is the first step towards a stall and a stall or recession spells potential destabilization. The downside of a one party system.

[Montmorency]

Supporting ACIN:

This is the backdrop against which the sharp, government-supported surge in China's stock markets over the past 12 months should be understood. It also helps explain why the government continues to support the stock market even as it becomes clear that the market is a bubble, and even as investor leverage rises, alongside the financial risks of a market collapse. In short, a collapse in the stock market, in a climate of stagnant-to-negative growth in real estate, would almost certainly lead to a drop in household consumption and thus in consumption-driven industries. This is exacerbated by an environment that lacks substantial alternative investment avenues, in a period of slowing economic growth, slowing wage increases and rising unemployment.

Private consumption is increasingly critical, not only to Beijing's long-term reform goals but also to maintaining economic growth, employment, and social and political stability in the near term. Beijing seeks to avoid, as long as it must, any actions that infringe on private consumption. If stock markets collapsed tomorrow, the most immediate effect — beyond widespread but containable ire over lost savings and a significant hit on business cash flows — would be a surge in state-backed bank deposits as ordinary investors move their capital to the only place offering safe, if modest, returns.

This is not necessarily a bad thing for Beijing. After all, China's state-controlled banking sector would be flush with capital and in a stronger position to pump credit into the economy as needed. At the same time, it would likely cut against the underlying thrust of China's reform and rebalancing program — specifically, the need to curb wasteful state-led investment, reduce the state-sector's reliance on artificially cheap financing and improve the ability of banks to price risk. All of this could ultimately combat the widespread capital misallocation that has characterized every prior instance of massive state-backed credit expansion in China. Over the past year, banks have become an increasingly important source of corporate financing. Amid a collapse in the stock market, a rapid surge of deposits into banks would force Beijing to turn once again to the financial sector to support the economy. In all likelihood, this would lead to a repeat of the same speculative bubbles that attended the post-2008 stimulus drive.

Alternatively, Beijing could try to compel banks to hang onto the surge in savings rather than expanding lending. This would realistically be done by raising deposit interest rates. Such a move would almost certainly trigger an economy-wide crisis as the state-owned sector, already suffering falling profits and hefty debt repayment costs, collapses. It would also be an enormous boon to ordinary Chinese citizens, who continue to park the vast majority of their funds in savings deposits. By forcing a broad restructuring of Chinese industry, this would substantially accelerate the central government's long-term reform plans. It remains doubtful that the Communist Party government could survive such a crisis intact. At any rate, it is highly improbable that Beijing would raise interest rates, a policy that stands a strong chance of undermining state security in the immediate term.

A Choice of Evils

This is the basic conundrum China's leaders face in determining whether and for how long to sustain the current stock market boom. Barring a radical lifting of restrictions on overseas investment or a sharp increase in deposit rates, China effectively lacks channels for ordinary citizens to generate wealth beyond investment in real estate and stocks. Real estate is slowing, weighed down by years of accumulated oversupply. It no longer promises the returns it once did. If stocks decline, it is unclear what else ordinary people can rely upon to generate returns. The impact of a stock market decline on private consumption growth would only compound its effects on corporate balance sheets and investment, and thus on employment and economic growth.

The bottom line is that Beijing has an underlying interest in ensuring that China's stock markets do not collapse. Therefore, the government will likely continue to intervene to the best of its ability, propping up markets and market sentiment whenever the risk of a major sell-off becomes too great. This does not mean that stock prices won't slide further, or that the market will stabilize — indeed, it could well become even more volatile over the coming months. But it does reinforce the fact that until Beijing invents more avenues for investment, or unless it embraces interest rate hikes and any post-crisis restructuring, it will have to rely on the few tools available to ensure that citizens can generate the wealth and financial security they need to consume. Beijing's reform goals, as well as the ability to manage China's slowdown, depend on this.

Send us your thoughts on this report.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/wh...markets-matter

[Gilrandir]

You all fail to see the danger here. It's not about the markets at all. China needs to keep the 7% growth in order to maintain domestic stability. It's people are all on the east coast, and continue to flock away from the countryside. Slowing down is the first step towards a stall and a stall or recession spells potential destabilization. The downside of a one party system.

As Chinese recent history shows, the leadership are able to keep the people in harness irrespectively of the economic situation. North Korea can, anyway.