Russian military jet downed by Turkey

[Fragony]

Don't know where I read it but it's true, Turkey expanded their airspace by 5 kilometers without concent by the Nato partners. I am kinda happy this happened actually, Turkey under Erdogan doesn't belong in the Nato

edit, 5 miles my bad, but that plane wasn't flying over Turkish airspace. So Turkey has a problem now.

[Fisherking]

Don't know where I read it but it's true, Turkey expanded their airspace by 5 kilometers without concent by the Nato partners. I am kinda happy this happened actually, Turkey under Erdogan doesn't belong in the Nato

edit, 5 miles my bad, but that plane wasn't flying over Turkish airspace. So Turkey has a problem now.

got a link or info on this?

[Fragony]

got a link or info on this?

Best I can do http://www.globalresearch.ca/russia-...border/5480430

[Crandar]

[Greyblades]

I find myself rather ambivalent to this situation. I hope that this doesn't end with bloodshed between Turkey and Russia but seeing as turkey fired first I don't think I'd object if Russia gives Turkey a good ball kicking in response.

[I of the Storm]

I find myself rather ambivalent to this situation. I hope that this doesn't end with bloodshed between Turkey and Russia but seeing as turkey fired first I don't think I'd object if Russia gives Turkey a good ball kicking in response.

Problem is, Russia kicking Turkey's balls in response would give Turkey a cause to invoke the NATO clause on mutual defense. And then it would be kinda hard to deny assistance if NATO still wants to be taken seriously internationally.

[Greyblades]

It depends, NATO is primarily a defensive pact; as Turkey is obviously the aggressor in this we can opt to just sit back and let it happen. Besides by ball kicking I don't include outright invasion or annexation.

[I of the Storm]

Maybe, but I have a hunch that Erdogan will invoke nevertheless as soon as the Russians act aggressively towards Turkey.
And opting not to act upon that invocation is bad PR for NATO, no matter how justified/legal.
That's what I mean.

[Myth]

First of all, if WW III erupts I'm going to buy a little cottage high in the mountains and just eat cheese with tomatoes and buttered bread and go arund the forests with my german shepherd dog. i'd be in a place similar to this:

Screw killing people for some political agenda, screw nuclear fallout, screw all of that.

In regards to the incident: It is safe to say that no pilot is a trigger happy moron, especially considering they are targeting the aircraft of a (belligerent) nuclear capable superpower. Orders came up, someone gave this the a-ok.

It was NOT a simple overzealous enforcement of turkish airspace, nobody is that stupid. This was planned and someone benefits from it, but I can't tell whom.

Right now, there aren't many ways for Russia to respond. There is a US missile cruiser in the Black Sea and a French carrier group in the Medditerranean. Can they bomb Turkey? Doubtful. That would be a declaration of war. And what would they bomb anyway? Can't kill civilians, and the military targets would be protected. Do they start sending guided missiles at Turkey? Unlikely.

Can they blockade them with their fleet? Highly unlikely, since they'd have to bring in support vessels and fighters to prevent said fleet to be blown out of the water by Turkish bomber jets. And the US/French presence there is further discouraging.

Can they send in boots and tanks? Definitely not. Invading Turkey is the fastest way to a nuclear hollocaust I can imagine. Even if somehow this didn't trigger US/English/French nukes to fly at Russia and the reverse, there is little to be gianed by attacking Turkey by land OR sea. They can't hold that territory, and they don't particularly need it.

I wouldn't be surprised if some assassinations happen though and if the kurds become Russia's veersion of the "moderate" rebels.

[Greyblades]

Assassinations, rebel supporting, all that good stuff is likely, but personally I predict that the life expectancy for Turkish warplanes leaving Turkish airspace is about to drop sharply.

Maybe, but I have a hunch that Erdogan will invoke nevertheless as soon as the Russians act aggressively towards Turkey.
And opting not to act upon that invocation is bad PR for NATO, no matter how justified/legal.
That's what I mean.

I disagree, Turkey being the instigator gives us carte-blanche to refuse their request for military support and supporting a overly aggressive member in a war of their own making would be even worse PR.

Now if Turkey owns up to it, offers reparations and Russia refuses to let it go then maybe NATO would be obligated to help Turkey.

[Myth]

Interesting bit read just now. What if this was coordinated? An excuse for Putin to station his C-300 and C-400 mobile SAM sites which are even now on their way? Now the legitimiate Syrian govenment can close off Syrian airspace, thus ending the airborne weapon deliveries coming from Turkey and other US proxies. It will be free rein for Syrian army and Russian jets to fry ISIS and "moderate" opposition troops.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If Turkey warned the Russian plane that they would be fired upon if they entered Turkish airspace and then the Russians entered their airspace and were fired upon then that's not just "turkey's Fault".

That's both sides being stupid.

Of course the surviving Russian pilot claims they weren't warned - he's obviously lying.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34925229

He also claims there's "no way" they violated Turkish airspace.

[Gilrandir]

Chill out guys. There won't be any WWIII. It didn't start when Russia annexed Crimea, which was a more serious felony. A plane downed is just such a trifle. Putin will have to lump it. Turkey won't press its cause either since Russia is the greatest tourist exporter for Turkey's resorts.

As for how legitimate it was to shoot down a plane which has left the alien airspace: just TO ENTER it is a crime worth a punishment, especially if it was NOT THE FIRST TIME Russia did it and if Russian pilot(s) on that mission are claimed to have been warned over the radio and even gestured by the Turkish pilots that they were trespassing. If someone invades your house and then leaves, does it mean that he is not guilty of trespassing/burglary?

As for Russia initiating navy blockade against Turkey:

http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy...ia_402573.html, which means that:
1) Russia lacks ships even for its Syrian campaign to say nothing of other assignments;
2) at any time Turkey may close its straits to ANY vessels coming from the Black sea which may be sent by Russia (or anyone else).

[Myth]

They have enough of a navy to choke out Turkey: http://www.globalfirepower.com/count...ntry_id=Russia

That they bought a few tubs to transport weapons in doesn't affect that IMO. Not to mention that they seized a lot of Ukranian ships when they annexed Crimea, their navy actually grew. Still lightyears behind the USA, but enough to fix Erdogan's Ottoman Empire.

[Montmorency]

As for how legitimate it was to shoot down a plane which has left the alien airspace: just TO ENTER it is a crime worth a punishment, especially if it was NOT THE FIRST TIME Russia did it and if Russian pilot(s) on that mission are claimed to have been warned over the radio and even gestured by the Turkish pilots that they were trespassing. If someone invades your house and then leaves, does it mean that he is not guilty of trespassing/burglary?

The plane was over internationally-recognized Turkish airspace for a few seconds.

[Gilrandir]

They have enough of a navy to choke out Turkey: http://www.globalfirepower.com/count...ntry_id=Russia

That they bought a few tubs to transport weapons in doesn't affect that IMO. Not to mention that they seized a lot of Ukranian ships when they annexed Crimea, their navy actually grew. Still lightyears behind the USA, but enough to fix Erdogan's Ottoman Empire.

If you go by the figures you linked to then you must be aware of the fact that in the article the estimation of Russia's TOTAL navy was given. How long will it take Russia to send the ships from the Pacific, Baltic and Polar navies to the Mediterranean? Will NATO countries (i.e. Denmark and Norway) let those out of the Baltic Sea or through the North Sea? What part of their numerous navies are they ready to spare to intimidate Turkey? Will they risk leaving other seas naked just to scare Turkey? If they sent just a part, will it be enough to blockade the whole of Turkish coastline? As for the Black Sea navy - that will be the most easily pent by Turkey in the sea in question.

The plane was over internationally-recognized Turkish airspace for a few seconds.

And? Does it mean that there was NO TRESPASSING? Especially if Russia was explicitely told (and not once) to quit doing it and warned that the trespassers will be shot (and as it appeared survivors were shot again).

[Husar]

So - Now that WWIII is in the offing what regiment are you guys thinking?

The refugee regiment, and if that does not work, maybe go have a beer or a tea with Myth in the mountains while you patriots die in glorious fires of righteous indignation over basically nothing...

As for why they shot that plane down, maybe they're mad that Russia isn't bombing the Kurds...

[Montmorency]

And? Does it mean that there was NO TRESPASSING? Especially if Russia was explicitely told (and not once) to quit doing it and warned that the trespassers will be shot (and as it appeared survivors were shot again).

And? This wasn't exactly a deviation from the West Berlin Corridor.

[Gilrandir]

And? This wasn't exactly a deviation from the West Berlin Corridor.

I guess Turkey was pissed off so it was looking for a slightest pretext to do what it did. And Russia was stupid enough to disregard the warnings and deemed it could act the way it did. Turkey showed it means business and will not shilly shally as Norway or the UK do in similar cases issuing warning after warning and expressing concerns, one deeper than the other.

[Montmorency]

Turkish political belligerence and social unrest are a concern to everyone, as Turkey is the balance and the nexus of West Asia (with respect to Europe, Israel with respect to Africa). Pitting NATO and Russia against each other so as to gain territory and promote Islamism and Turkish nationalism is not a good thing. Another expression of the global turn toward fascism...

[Hooahguy]

On the plus side, Russia said they wont go to war over this incident. So I guess WWIII has been averted. For now.


Also a relevant Polandball comic:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The plane was over internationally-recognized Turkish airspace for a few seconds.

Turkey is entitled to shoot down the warplanes of other nations in its airspace without its consent.

Russia does this quite a lot - and according to a US general they have tapes telling the Russians to turn back ten times.

You talk about Turkey being finicky all you want but we all know Russia has been playing silly sods in Ukraine for almost two years now, so what is Turkey supposed to do?

Wring it's hands like a good EU country?

Perhaps, but then that hasn't achieved anything - has it?

Not saying Turkey is blameless, I'm just saying the Russian pilot and his superiors have a degree of responsibility too.

[Husar]

They do, but if you take the borders so seriously, why not destroy the missile once the plane leaves your airspace? The missile apparently impacted long after the plane left Turkish airspace again, at a time when the "danger" for Turkish airspace was not existent anymore. It was not heading into Turkish airspace anymore but they went through and executed what is more or less a death penalty.
Is it not a violation of Syrian airspace to fire a missile into it?

Not to forget that they claimed to bomb ISIS and "accidentally" bombed the Kurds (our allies) instead. Russia and Turkey seem like very similar countries at the moment, at least as far as the political leadership is concerned.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Fair point, but this mess is still 50% Rusiia.

[Myth]

Russia has been skimming the edges of NATO airspace since forever. I remember that when the sanctions were raised over the Crimea annexation, Russian bombers flew over the Pacific and reached California. They congratulated the US fighter jets sent to intercept them (it was the 4th of July) and turned back. They were 20 kilometers from US airspace. Putin likes taunting the US like that. This skimming over the edge of enemy airspace was a common drill during the cold war I hear.

Can't imagine anything going wrong, seems like a brilliant plan.

[Brenus]

Let's see what Erdogan think about all this, shall we?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a6748146.html

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself said “a short-term border violation can never be a pretext for an attack”.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Warning issued: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a6747921.html

[Myth]

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Well, we have to use the off bit of vulgar Frankish Latin or the French complain that all international air coms are in English.

[Sarmatian]

It is possibly Russian pilots didn't receive that, I presume.

WW3 was never on the cards, here. Kurds getting some good AA, Turkmens getting bombs on their heads, a Turkish jet straying even for a second into Syrian airspace might get shot at - those are very realistic possibilities, on the other hand.

Personally, I don't believe Russia will go to great lengths to antagonize Turkey. They can use this small "capital" in better ways.