Well guys, since apparently knights and horse archers are considered obsolete in deciding armed conflict (but they still have my heart), I'd like to talk nuclear weapons.
I did make a similar post a while back, asking why Israel could proliferate but Iran couldn't. But now I was thinking - how likely is it that nations would actually use nukes? I think it is readily apparent to everyone apart from Mahmud the Jihadi that nukes mean we all die horribly anyway.
MAD means we all lose. So, they've been acting as a deterrent to serious wars between first world superpowers until now. What do you think would it take for any nation to use them?
In nato we have France, England and the USA. Other nuclear capable countries are Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and probably Iran and North Korea, though the latter two lack the means of delivering them anywhere meaningful. Well, apart from Seoul.
I think that no country, general, world leader or lobbyist would be stupid enough to consider actual nuclear war. Even if the tanks start rolling, I think they would hold them back. Yes, even Putin. Because once they've been let loose retaliation is 100% guaranteed.
India has a politic of only using them in retaliation, so they're safest on the list. I think the UK and France are the more mature of the three NATO members that have nukes. Plus, they can always fall back on longbowmen and gendarmes.
China has the advantage of nobody being stupid enough to try and start a land war with them on their own territory and a complete lack of means to project power outside its borders. Essentially, they're not a player on the international military scene, unless they want to roll boots and tanks somewhere, but they have nowhere to go. They can't walk to Japan, they don't want to mess with Russia and India and Korea are boring and dangerous.
Pakistan I know little about, same about Israel. As far as nukes go, they are the wildcards for me.
The USA and Russia I think will be holding back until something provokes one to act on behalf of some other country.
Best Korea has an insane enough leader, but they're too far away to matter.
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