Rise of The Snake Cult [Concluded]

[Nightbringer]

Huzzah!

Wait, why are we still here...

[Zain]

I knew Severing was scum! Smelt it day 1

[Raith Kemmler]

Kudos Zain, that was fine work.

Okay. I'm thinking:

Jarema: Still town to me
Zain: Early attempts at reveal of Viper look improve cred a lot.
Al Sipsclar: Still town.
Nightbringer: looks better after Viper's death, though not Zain good.
Autolycus: He turned the tide for my epic mislynch on GK. He hasn't been around. He can't be in the final town lineup.
Case-Conflicted. Her comment about SV might have been an attempt to turn the wagon, but mafia usually play that cooler. Viper probably knew he was toast come last phase and probably didn't bother trying to argue it. That said, her poisoned comment could go two ways. It's almost late enough that it could be a cover, as it took 3 phases to kill Edse, But I'd expect mafia to declare that a bit later in this case. Unless there's more than one mafia left, but that sounds overbooked.
Johnhughthom: Very town

[Zain]

Kudos Zain, that was fine work.

Thank you

Okay. I'm thinking:

Jarema: Still town to me

Why? He's on my radar.

Zain: Early attempts at reveal of Viper look improve cred a lot.

Once again thanks :)

Al Sipsclar: Still town.

I tend to agree with you, but what makes you (and apparently everybody else) think this?

Nightbringer: looks better after Viper's death, though not Zain good.

Not necessarily to me, he could've easily bussed. But I have a decent feel about him.

Autolycus: He turned the tide for my epic mislynch on GK. He hasn't been around. He can't be in the final town lineup.

Never had a good feeling about auto, but he's not my top suspect (Jarema).

[Quote=Raith}
Case-Conflicted. Her comment about SV might have been an attempt to turn the wagon, but mafia usually play that cooler. Viper probably knew he was toast come last phase and probably didn't bother trying to argue it. That said, her poisoned comment could go two ways. It's almost late enough that it could be a cover, as it took 3 phases to kill Edse, But I'd expect mafia to declare that a bit later in this case. Unless there's more than one mafia left, but that sounds overbooked. [/QUOTE]
I feel Cass is innocent, need to analyze what you said more.

Johnhughthom: Very town

I tend to agree with this as well, but why?

Monologue soon to follow!

[Jarema]

are we expected to talk at night?

It is possible, that last remaining scum is some kind of third party. If so, it will be harder to find him by analyzing relations in the thread

[Al Sipsclar]

If we were to lynch the last mafioso, but still had a serial killer alive, would the game end then, or we had to find the SK? I hope we don't have to hunt down the 3rd party.

With SV's flip, Zain and Nightbringer look much better. Winston's track results support Zain as well.

On D2, JHT was the top contender until, late in the day, Winston presented a pretty damning evidence against khaan. If not lynched then, khaan would have a very hard avoiding the lynch the next day. Scum had all reasons to bus him. That doesn't look good for Cass, who were last on khaan's wagon. She did break the tie and condemned khaan to the gallows, but he was doomed anyway. Another thing not looking good for Cass, was when yesterday Nightbringer mentioned her as his next scum lean, and I said that Nightbringer is my second choice, Cass came back and voted Nightbringer.

On D2, JHT was set up for a lynch with GH and EB voting him. Entirely possible that JHT is scum and that was a gambit to gain some town cred. But I think it's not very likely.

Raith was tunneling on G1K. On D3 he voted SV, but didn't bold the vote! Curiously, too, if we assume that on D1 scum voted their partners (khaan voted El Barto, EB voted GH), SV voted Raith and Raith voted GH. Otherwise, I have nothing against Raith.

Jarema is suspicious. D2 vote on edse was bad, D4 vote on Zain is interesting.

I was ready to vote Auto on D4 due to his poor voting record, but his confused nighttime vote on N3 stopped me. I mean, what kind of scum can lose the track of day/night phases?

I've been keeping a spreadsheet here. Sharing it in the hope it helps us to find the scum.

[Visor]

End of Night Five

Another victim.

Raith Kemmler was killed!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Town

Alive: 7/20
1. Jarema
6. Zain
13. Al Sipsclar
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom

Dead: 13/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.
12. El Barto, killed N3, mafia.
4. Cuthillius, killed N3, town.
7. landlubber, poisoned N3, town.
3. Golden1Knight, lynched D4, town.
8. edse, killed N4, town.
14. Winston Hughes, killed N4, town.
19. Severing viper, lynched D5, mafia.
10. Raith Kemmler, killed N5, town.

[autolycus]

After reviewing the spreadsheet, my working theory is that there's one more mafia (who probably poisoned last night), we have a vig activated by the duchess' death, and a solo scum poisoner. Raith's kill doesn't make sense for the mafia, and Winston's claimed poisoning suggests that the poisoner is not on our side (plus khaan was traced to edse the night edse got poisoned). It's possible the vig is actually an SK, and it's also possible the poisoner is solo and khaan was doing something else that night vis a vis edse (tracking would be one possible power)

Poisoned:
N1: edse (claimed in thread)
N2:landlubber (Died N3 of poison)
N3:Winston Hughes (claimed in thread)
N4:Cass (claimed in thread)
N5: ???


Poisoner candidates from least likely to most:
Cass: claimed poisoning, missed two days
Nightbringer: Missed two days
Al: Clearly not on the mafia's team. Only poisoner if solo
Jarrema Vote on edse very strange if he's poisoned him.
autolycus: Me. I know I'm innocent but Voting record not great
johnhughthom landlubber got poisoned after pushing his lynch. Only poisoner if poisoner solo.
Zain: Tracked as inactive first two days, but voting record is dubious. Only poisoner if poisoner part of mafia team.

Vote:Zain I think the poison is one of the scum team's powers, especially given the title of the game.

[Nightbringer]

vote:autlycus

I'll explain later today when I have more time.

and happy holidays all!

[Zain]

I've been keeping a spreadsheet here. Sharing it in the hope it helps us to find the scum.

Thank you for sharing that, allow me to analyze and comment below

1. Jarema
6. Zain
13. Al Sipsclar
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom

Leans:
1. Jarema - Based upon voting record Jarema seems innocent, he feels slightly more scummy though.
13. Al Sipsclar - Gunned for Severing three turns in a row, voting record and feel is innocent as well.
15. Nightbringer - Inactive scum, at first anyway. Claiming that he gets more active as the game winds down does nothing for his case, appears more scummy than Jarema in both voting record and feel.
16. Autolycus - voted for 3 confirmed townies in the past, one probable living townie, and then bandwagon scum vote. Voting record leans scum, feel is as well.
17. Cass - Poisoned, according to the spreadsheet. Voting record is neutral though inactivity in the vote seems scummy, but my feel is townie. Conflicted on this one.
18. Johnhughthom - Voting record leans him innocent, and he feels as such as well.

Vote:autolycus as of this moment, may not have time tomorrow to look, glad for the extended time.

[Visor]

Merry Christmas from aus.

[autolycus]

Assuming the remaining direct killer is town and the poison is part of the mafia team, lynching and killing Zain and me wins the game. Obviously, I'd prefer it to go Zain then me because that might end the game before my death, but either order should be ok. If that doesn't work out and Cass doesn't die of poison, I'd lynch her tomorrow. I might not be back on before day's end, but Merry Christmas to all in advance.

[El Barto]

Merry Christmas from aus.

Ohayo gozaimasu, baisorusurashu-san!

[Raith Kemmler]

Avenge me Town!!!!

[Al Sipsclar]

I gather, no one was poisoned last night?

Master @Nightbringer, about Autolycus more to say, have you?

Why Zain, and not Jarema? For Zain we have at least some tracking results. What exonerating evidence we have for Jarema?

[Nightbringer]

I gather, no one was poisoned last night?

Master @Nightbringer, about Autolycus more to say, have you?

Why Zain, and not Jarema? For Zain we have at least some tracking results. What exonerating evidence we have for Jarema?

Nothing regulatory, just a general feeling from posts and the voting history. Too busy with work + holiday to dig through everything at the moment.

[Cass_]

Merry Christmas all!

Right now I'm still happy with a lynch from my previous top 3 but tbh I'm not that confident. Nightbringer seems less likely and I'm even back to tinfoiling on Al Sips. Apart from picking upon the GH D1 switching votes thing, my reads seem to be waaay off this game. Playing Town is hard!! Here's where I'm at:

WRT Nightbringer

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I can agree SV's flip makes Nightbringer look considerably better unless it was a major, early bus. The main selling point for me is the fact he voted/pushed SV early the day before the lynch, rather than just jumping in the next day after SV's noose was already set. Anything's possible, but I can't really see Scum bussing like that at this point in the game so I'd be happier lynching Auto/Jarema first here.

On the other hand, the posts following Khaan's flip and the soft-clearing of both GH and El Barto still bother me.

It just feels too blatant and meta to me, but it is possible. I would say it takes El Barto off the suspect list for sure though. I had missed the Al voted khann though.

@Nightbringer, can you explain why Khaan's flip took El Barto off the suspect list for you?

It just feels too blatant and meta to me, but it is possible. I would say it takes El Barto off the suspect list for sure though. I had missed the Al voted khann though.

WRT Auto

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Same things against Auto as before but these also caught my eye:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

After reviewing the spreadsheet, my working theory is that there's one more mafia (who probably poisoned last night), we have a vig activated by the duchess' death, and a solo scum poisoner. Raith's kill doesn't make sense for the mafia, and Winston's claimed poisoning suggests that the poisoner is not on our side (plus khaan was traced to edse the night edse got poisoned). It's possible the vig is actually an SK, and it's also possible the poisoner is solo and khaan was doing something else that night vis a vis edse (tracking would be one possible power)

Poisoned:
N1: edse (claimed in thread)
N2:landlubber (Died N3 of poison)
N3:Winston Hughes (claimed in thread)
N4:Cass (claimed in thread)
N5: ???

Poisoner candidates from least likely to most:
Cass: claimed poisoning, missed two days
Nightbringer: Missed two days
Al: Clearly not on the mafia's team. Only poisoner if solo
Jarrema Vote on edse very strange if he's poisoned him.
autolycus: Me. I know I'm innocent but Voting record not great
johnhughthom landlubber got poisoned after pushing his lynch. Only poisoner if poisoner solo.

Zain: Tracked as inactive first two days, but voting record is dubious. Only poisoner if poisoner part of mafia team.

Vote:Zain I think the poison is one of the scum team's powers, especially given the title of the game.

I also think that the poisoning would be a mafia power given that GH flipped 3rd party undercover with the mafia team but I don't know how you translate that to Zain being number one suspect - iirc Winston tracked him N2 and N3 with no result - yet landlubber and Winston were actively poisoned. Also, Winston said he tracked Zain at night, and it was the last few phases, not the first.

Assuming the remaining direct killer is town and the poison is part of the mafia team, lynching and killing Zain and me wins the game. Obviously, I'd prefer it to go Zain then me because that might end the game before my death, but either order should be ok. If that doesn't work out and Cass doesn't die of poison, I'd lynch her tomorrow. I might not be back on before day's end, but Merry Christmas to all in advance.

1. I don't understand. How/why does taking you and Zain out win the game, if you're Town?
2. Re the bold. Why lynch me?

WRT Jarema

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I still don't like his votes/responses and he's now scummiest to me. Unlike NB, he first avoided and then quickly switched to the lynch of SV. I feel like the interaction/weird mutual votes between them yesterday were possibly scum-scum distancing. SV was pretty obviously going to be the lynch after GK the day before so bussing wasn't out of the question and during previous GK-SV phase Jarema i) started with his strange vote on Zain and ii) then switched to GK, otherwise staying quiet, even when questioned about the vote on Zain.

I'm still of the mindset that Zain gets a pass from Winston's tracking, so all of the above stands out given that and SV's flip. Add that to the vote on Edse and the lack of reasons for previous votes and I'm going to

Vote: Jarema , pending responses from Night and Auto.

[Cass_]

Also, I'm out with family all Boxing Day (next 20ish hours) for first time this year, wheeee! Will hopefully be able to get to a real computer after that/the next day before EoD :D GL!

[johnhughthom]

I don't really feel the case on auto, and Jarema smells town to me. I'm going to go Vote: Nightbringer

[Nightbringer]

So I'm stuck on mobile only right now and can't put together a detailed response, but all I can really say is that it was a misread. I thought the way they were communicating was too interactive to be people that had their own quicktopic. I figured that mafia would probably just try to avoid association, rather than fake squable and chat with each other.

Sent from my LGL33L using Tapatalk

[Nightbringer]

So why do you land on me jht ? Seriously? I'm shaping up as today's target, so at least make sure you have really thought it through. Auto's voting record really does far less to separate him from known skum far mine does

Sent from my LGL33L using Tapatalk

[Jarema]

Vote: Zain

Merry Christmas to all (I'm a little late, I know)

[Jarema]

vote: Zain

[Nightbringer]

vote count
autolycus - 2
zain - 1
nightbringer - 1
jarema - 1


1. Jarema - Zain
6. Zain - autolycus
13. Al Sipsclar
15. Nightbringer - autolycus
16. Autolycus
17. Cass - Jarema
18. Johnhughthom - Nightbringer

waiting on you 2 al sips and auto :)

[Al Sipsclar]

Autolycus has actualy voted Zain, I voted Jarema (by bolding his name).

Like Auto noted, we had someone poisoned and someone killed every night.

	poisoned	killed
N1	edse (d.N4)	Csargo
N2	LL (d.N3)	Scarlett
N3	WH (d.N4)	Cuth+EB
N4	Cass		edse?
N5	?		RK

edse told us he had two days to live, but died N4. Either he was healed and killed, or the poison took longer.
landlubber didn't claim he was poisoned, but N3 writeup indicated he died of poison. Either he neglected to claim, or the poison was too potent (two poisoners?) or LL was very susceptible to poisoning.
WH claimed the poisoning symptoms on D4 and died N4. Not as fast as LL, but faster than edse.
Cass claimed poisoning N4, is still alive. Seems to be within the two days expectancy. It also can be that the poison always takes two days to kill, but some people develop symptoms early (edse, Cass), some late (WH), some never (LL). In this case we're going to have more than one player poisoned on the same night, requiring multiple poisoners.

Zain did nothing on N2 and N3, so this clears him from being the solo killer or poisoner. He still can be a part of the mafia team who did nothing those nights, but I find it unlikely that he'd push for the lynch of his last teammate (SV) first thing in the morning on D4.

Nightbringer and Cass each missed two day phases. They still could have sent night orders, but their absence lowers the probability of them being the solo killers or poisoners.

Nightbringer also pushed for SV lynch early D4 and D5, which makes it unlikey he's part of SV's team.

Cass could have been bussing khaan. She also followed my ill-advised suggestions and voted Nightbringer D5 and Jarema today. Probability of being the mafia team's member: medium.

I agree with Auto that Jarema's vote on edse after edse was poisoned makes it unlikely that Jarema is the poisoner. He still can be the solo killer.

JHT and I voted to lynch more than one scum, which lowers the probability of us being the mafiosi. We still could be the solo killers/poisoners.

Autolycus has the highest chances of being either the mafia team member or the solo killer/poisoner.

		mafia 		solo poisoner	solo killer
Jarema		low		low		medium
Zain		low		very low	very low
Al Sipsclar	very low	medium		medium
Nightbringer	low		low		low
Autolycus	medium		medium		medium
Cass		medium		low		low
JHT		very low	medium		medium

Vote: Autolycus

[Jarema]

to seal it, I'll vote: Autolycus

[Visor]

End of Day Six

Autolycus was lynched!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Town

Alive: 6/20
1. Jarema
6. Zain
13. Al Sipsclar
15. Nightbringer
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom

Dead: 14/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.
12. El Barto, killed N3, mafia.
4. Cuthillius, killed N3, town.
7. landlubber, poisoned N3, town.
3. Golden1Knight, lynched D4, town.
8. edse, killed N4, town.
14. Winston Hughes, killed N4, town.
19. Severing viper, lynched D5, mafia.
10. Raith Kemmler, killed N5, town.
16. Autolycus, lynched D6, town.

[Visor]

End of Night Six

Zain was killed!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Town

Alive: 5/20
1. Jarema
13. Al Sipsclar
15. Nightbringer
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom

Dead: 15/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.
12. El Barto, killed N3, mafia.
4. Cuthillius, killed N3, town.
7. landlubber, poisoned N3, town.
3. Golden1Knight, lynched D4, town.
8. edse, killed N4, town.
14. Winston Hughes, killed N4, town.
19. Severing viper, lynched D5, mafia.
10. Raith Kemmler, killed N5, town.
16. Autolycus, lynched D6, town.
6. Zain, killed N5, town.

[johnhughthom]

Vote: Nightbringer

It's less I think he's probably scum than I think the others are less likely.

[Al Sipsclar]

No one is poisoned? @cass, how are your poisoning symptoms progressing?

Are we at LyLo yet? Mislynch today and two dying tonight from poison/kill.

If the killer is town-aligned, then he's the most clueless and paranoid townie. Must be Jarema. :)
If it is the last mafioso we're looking for, then it's either Nightbringer or Cass.
If it is the 3rd party/SK, then it's John.

Vote:Nightbringer. We can alternatively lynch Cass to end her sufferings and avoid the double whammy of the mislynch and her dying on us tonight.