North Korea successfully tests hydrogen bomb

[Myth]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35240012

North Korea says it has successfully tested a miniaturised hydrogen bomb which, if confirmed, would be its fourth nuclear test since 2006.
It came after a 5.1 magnitude quake was detected close to its nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, indicating a test may have been conducted.
This is North Korea's first claim to have tested a hydrogen nuclear bomb - more powerful than an atomic bomb.
International experts have cast doubt over the North's nuclear capabilities.

Suspicion of an underground test was first raised after the US Geological Survey said the epicentre of the quake - detected at 10:00 Pyongyang time (01:30 GMT) - was in the north-east of the country, some 50km (30 miles) from Kilju city, near Punggye-ri.
Then in a surprise announcement, a newsreader on North Korean state TV said: "The republic's first hydrogen bomb test has been successfully performed at 10:00 am on January 6, 2016."
It could be days or weeks before independent tests are able to verify the claim.

Last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said Pyongyang had developed a hydrogen bomb, although many experts were sceptical.
If confirmed, it would mean Pyongyang is intent on pursuing its nuclear programme with little regard for the major political and diplomatic costs that will inevitably accompany this unwelcome development, says Dr John Nilsson-Wright of Asia Programme at Chatham House.

This test, which North Korea claims is a hydrogen bomb, is a step up in destructive power from the plutonium used in previous tests. It gives more explosive power for a lighter weight.
After the test in 2013, there was widespread condemnation. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting at which its members, including China, "strongly condemned" the test. Similar outrage is expected this time. Prime Minister Abe of Japan has said this fourth test was a "serious threat to the safety of his nation".
On top of any fourth nuclear test, North Korea also appears to have tested a submarine-launched missile. The ability to launch missiles from submarines would change the whole calculation of military response because warning times of an attack on, for example, the West Coast of the United States would be much shorter.
Before the test, North Korean state media said the country "deserved to hold nuclear weapons... to counter nuclear threats by the US".
Experts believed before the fourth test that North Korea was still some years from being able to hit a target with a nuclear bomb delivered by a missile. But it is crystal clear that it is absolutely determined to be able to do so. It is also clear that it is improving its abilities rapidly.

Hours before the seismic activity, South Korean media reported that Pyongyang had test-fired a ballistic missile from a submarine in late December. It is unclear whether the test was successful or not.
In May last year, North Korea claimed it had successfully launched a missile from a submarine.

Strong reaction started pouring in after the North Korean announcement of the hydrogen bomb test, with South Korea saying it was a serious challenge to global peace and a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said it was a threat to Japan's safety and could not be tolerated.
The US called on North Korea to abide by its international commitments and obligations saying it would respond to provocations.
After previous tests, the international community has responded with economic and political sanctions.

[rory_20_uk]

Hardly surprising it would happen, given the prioritise their military above all else, leaving the international community to help feed their people and indirectly enable them.

When they manage to get one on a sub - that'll be the very concerning point - for West Coast USA

[Myth]

They managed to launch a satelite a few years ago, so they might have enough tin to scrounge up an ICBM.

[Fragony]

Strongly doubt it, satalites would have picked it up, and NK would have filmed everything

[Myth]

Strongly doubt it, satalites would have picked it up, and NK would have filmed everything

Japan has already condemned the test, sounds legit to me.

[Fragony]

Japan has already condemned the test, sounds legit to me.

I am just being suspicious, NK loves their military parades, they would absolutily use it for propagana purposes I think, but they didn't. That regime is batshit crazy, the great leader could drive a car when he was tree years old, scored 12 hole in ones the first time played golf. There are plenty of pictures where he inspects his toys. Something is kinda off as a hydrogin-bomb is quite the prize.

[Myth]

Blowing up a hydrogen bomb is not something easily faked. We'll know soon enough.

[Don Corleone]

Very unfortunate. North Korean submarines pose little to no strategic theat. They are easily detectable from hundreds of miles away and whenever they enter striking range of American targets, they would almost certainly be escorted by a much quieter, much faster American attack sub that would sink the NK vessel the moment they tried to open their missile hatches (which unlike Hollywood movies is not an instantaneous move).

The real concern here is what they're planning to do to hold South Korea and Japan for ransom. With 20+ years of appeasement by the West no matter how eggregious their acts, I don't think the North Koreans are all that crazy. It's actually been a very productive strategy for them. They issue a thinly veiled threat, the world condemns, then bribes them to stop. They take the money, promise to stop, then go develop a new threat.

I find the timing of North Korea's behavioral flare-ups to be strangely synchronized to testy moments in China's foreign policy itself as well. They certainly didn't disappoint Beijing here. Just when people start talking about pressuring China to calm down on territorial claims in the East and South China seas, lo and behold, we need them to put North Korea back in their cage yet again. Funny how that seems to happen time and time again.

[Kralizec]

I don't think China would be pleased at all by this. They're allies of opportunity, China only helps North Korea out in the Security Council because it doesn't want a stronger South Korea on its borders. If they were actual allies (in the sense that SK and USA are allies), China would be propping up their shoddy economy instead of letting North Korea resort to blackmailing its southern neighbours.

More to the point, China doesn't want North Korea to become a real nuclear power anymore than we do because
A) they're fully aware NK is run by lunatics
B) they're right on their border
C) it would be much, much easier for NK to construct a missile that can reach Beijing instead of the continental United States.

[wooly_mammoth]

I find the timing of North Korea's behavioral flare-ups to be strangely synchronized to testy moments in China's foreign policy itself as well. They certainly didn't disappoint Beijing here. Just when people start talking about pressuring China to calm down on territorial claims in the East and South China seas, lo and behold, we need them to put North Korea back in their cage yet again. Funny how that seems to happen time and time again.

Am I the only one who thinks you won't have a mouse fart in NK without explicit directives from China? I'm pretty sure NK is just an extension through which China "negotiates" with the US. That place wouldn't last a day on its own without chinese support. The bomb they tested is probably part of a chinese nuclear weapons program as well. Much easier to proxy it out through that place instead of going through the trouble Iran has for instance.

[Sarmatian]

Am I the only one who thinks you won't have a mouse fart in NK without explicit directives from China?

I'd say you are.

NK pisses off China to no end. The only reason it is still there because it is a buffer zone between China and potentially a large US army.

[Shaka_Khan]

China doesn't want North Korea to have nuclear weapons. If it's confirmed that North Korea developed a hydrogen bomb, then this might entice Japan to develop nuclear weapons. This is what China is worried about. Chinese citizens are already expressing anger about the nuclear test. Tremors were felt near the North Korean border. There are some who say that this happened at a convenient time for China. It got attention away from China's expansion to the South China Sea. Now America, Japan, and South Korea need China's help on North Korea. I don't think China had anything to do with the nuclear test because of what I said above.

Russia questioned North Korea's claim. The tremors measured on the Richter scale were too weak to be from a hydrogen bomb. It could be from an atomic bomb.

[wooly_mammoth]

I'd say you are.

NK pisses off China to no end. The only reason it is still there because it is a buffer zone between China and potentially a large US army.

Maybe it's all a part of the ruse? Those chinese guys are pretty devious.

[Myth]

China doesn't want North Korea to have nuclear weapons. If it's confirmed that North Korea developed a hydrogen bomb, then this might entice Japan to develop nuclear weapons. This is what China is worried about. Chinese citizens are already expressing anger about the nuclear test. Tremors were felt near the North Korean border. There are some who say that this happened at a convenient time for China. It got attention away from China's expansion to the South China Sea. Now America, Japan, and South Korea need China's help on North Korea. I don't think China had anything to do with the nuclear test because of what I said above.

Russia questioned North Korea's claim. The tremors measured on the Richter scale were too weak to be from a hydrogen bomb. It could be from an atomic bomb.

Japan has signed the non-proliferation treaty though.

[Gilrandir]

Japan has signed the non-proliferation treaty though.

Liable to change its mind. As it did with the ban on using its military abroad.

[Montmorency]

Not anytime soon. That would be disorderly. Much better to take advantage of regional politics over the next decade or two to justify rebuilding a proper military before leaping toward a nuclear deterrent.

After all, Japan has high-tier nuclear tech in its civilian sector, or at least easy access to it. In the time it takes North Korea to build a nuclear pipe bomb, the Japanese could hypothetically put together enough deliverable material to wipe out what counts for North Korean infrastructure throughout the country.

[Gilrandir]

Not anytime soon. That would be disorderly. Much better to take advantage of regional politics over the next decade or two to justify rebuilding a proper military before leaping toward a nuclear deterrent.

After all, Japan has high-tier nuclear tech in its civilian sector, or at least easy access to it. In the time it takes North Korea to build a nuclear pipe bomb, the Japanese could hypothetically put together enough deliverable material to wipe out what counts for North Korean infrastructure throughout the country.

The second passage premise presupposes both can be done simultaneously.

[Montmorency]

By "both" are you referring to North Korea building devices at the same time as Japan? If so, I don't see what you're getting at.

If you're asking why Japan can't have both a nuclear weapon program and a rearmament program in the short-term, that would be because there is not enough political capital or incentive. A similar question would be, why didn't Putin send troops to Ukraine in January 2014? Leaving aside that there is no domestic support for such a dramatic change, Japan has plenty of space to just react to Chinese/Korean/Russian "aggression" and gradually roll back the post-war reforms. A nuclear arsenal big enough to make China nervous - but not big enough to freak out the whole world - could be created within a year or two when needed. Doing both at once would overplay Japan's hand and demand a similar response from China while simultaneously alienating Japan's partners and allies.

I'll remind you that Japan is resource-poor. Aggression exceptional for the modern age demands punishment, and as it turns out Japan is one of the most susceptible countries to economic penalties.

[a completely inoffensive name]

4 tests in 10 years is a joke. By the time they reach 10, we will already have the technology to shoot their 1980s era missiles down.

[Gilrandir]

If you're asking why Japan can't have both a nuclear weapon program and a rearmament program in the short-term, that would be because there is not enough political capital or incentive.

Such moves by North Korea are a perfect icentive (or a pretext) for the Japanese to start getting busy militarywise (including the nuclear weapons).

Leaving aside that there is no domestic support for such a dramatic change, Japan has plenty of space to just react to Chinese/Korean/Russian "aggression" and gradually roll back the post-war reforms.

As the adopted decision to allow the usage of Japanese military abroad shows, popular support is a thing to be disregarded or dealt with cunningly. And what North Korea has done is a good chance to say "we told you so" and kick off all kinds of armament programs.

I'll remind you that Japan is resource-poor. Aggression exceptional for the modern age demands punishment, and as it turns out Japan is one of the most susceptible countries to economic penalties.

Similar ideas were expressed about Russia being unable to sustain a military campaign at the prospect of economic santions (or with them enacted), but Putin has opened a second one in Syria while continuing to support separatists in Donbas by various means. And Japan's economy is much more powerful than Russia's.

[Montmorency]

Such moves by North Korea are a perfect icentive (or a pretext) for the Japanese to start getting busy militarywise (including the nuclear weapons).

North Korea will not stop giving pretexts anytime soon, and the actual threat to the country will remain minimal, so it only makes sense to go steadily in one direction. To give another example, let's say Putin was interested in warring against Turkey, and so used the friction between Turkish and Russian military missions in Syria to escalate tensions over the next year up to a logical formal declaration. Indeed, wars between states tend to come about through measured escalation rather than sudden outbursts.

For Japan to use the North Korean test to abruptly justify full rearmament and a nuclear weapons program (and at the very least the domestic outcry would be at least as big as the international one toward the latter) would be like Putin having responded to the downing of his bomber by declaring that Russian missile bases were to be armed and ready to launch at Istanbul. Also notice that Germany has recently committed fighting forces to the Syrian mission, likely in response to France's sudden martial assertiveness. Doesn't mean Merkel's about to declare herself New Holy Roman Empress anytime soon.*

Similar ideas were expressed about Russia being unable to sustain a military campaign at the prospect of economic santions (or with them enacted), but Putin has opened a second one in Syria while continuing to support separatists in Donbas by various means. And Japan's economy is much more powerful than Russia's.

Well, that's the idea. To simplify a bit, Russia's economy is commodity-rich, while Japan's economy works on the import of commodities and the export of consumer electronics, advanced machinery, complex instrumentation and software, etc.


*Just as an example; no one wants that, least of all Merkel.

[Gilrandir]

North Korea will not stop giving pretexts anytime soon, and the actual threat to the country will remain minimal, so it only makes sense to go steadily in one direction.

I spoke not of what makes sense, but of what North Korean prank might be used (by military minded governments) for. Just like Russia saw (and still sees) threat in any moves by NATO irrespectively whether they are really fraught with any danger.

To give another example, let's say Putin was interested in warring against Turkey, and so used the friction between Turkish and Russian military missions in Syria to escalate tensions over the next year up to a logical formal declaration. Indeed, wars between states tend to come about through measured escalation rather than sudden outbursts.

Putin didn't start any tensions with Turkey, and he was not interested in any either. He was sure he had a free hand in any military operations in Syria even if Russian planes intruded into Turkish airspace from time to time. When Russian planes would do that to Western countries, they were warned and escorted out and Russia was reprimanded. Putin expected something like this in Syria and was completely taken aback when his presumption was baffled.

For Japan to use the North Korean test to abruptly justify full rearmament and a nuclear weapons program (and at the very least the domestic outcry would be at least as big as the international one toward the latter) would be like Putin having responded to the downing of his bomber by declaring that Russian missile bases were to be armed and ready to launch at Istanbul.

Invalid comparison which ignores the previous histories of both issues and the nature and goals of parties involved.

[Montmorency]

Invalid comparison which ignores the previous histories of both issues and the nature and goals of parties involved.

Not at all.

[lars573]

Yes very much is. It does make the case for Japan's re-arming. But a nuclear weapons programme? That would be tantamount to a US president saying "we's coming fer the gunz!"

[HopAlongBunny]

Questions remain as to whether the test was a thermonuclear device:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...-h-bomb-isn-t/

OTOH maybe we should be more frightened that N. Korea has managed to make a truly miniature thermonuclear device?

[Sarmatian]

From what I've read a few days ago, American, Russian and Chinese scientists still aren't convinced it was an H-bomb.

[Beskar]

The noise generated was 5 times to previous, but a h-bomb would be a 100 times previous. Obviously, size could be a factor as highlighted.

[Fragony]

Looks like I was right, it never happened