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Thread: SYRIA thread

  1. #91
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Run N Gun Champion, Hook Line & Sinker Champion, Anime BlackJack Champion, Street Racer Champion, Pipe Mania Champion, Spider Jump Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Soap Bubble Champion, Word Up Champion, Burger Time Champion, Shape Game Champion, Quick Shot Champion, Shuriken Challenge Champion, James Bomb Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Crazy Cars Champion, Space Runner Champion, Submarine Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Chicken Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Squirrel Soccer Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Stuart's Xtreme Skateboarding Champion, Jet Pac Stan Champion, Warthog Launch Champion, Candy Tetris Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Frogger Champion, Slack Man Champion, Fishing the Sea Champion, Mission To Mars Champion, Ollie Skates Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Brighton Bounty Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Rotation Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Ninja Turtles 2 Champion, Ice Racer Champion, Its Mine Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, Stick Avalanche Champion, White Van Man Champion, What-A-Shot Champion, Mars Patrol Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, Magic Ball Champion, BlackJack Champion, Sonny Sunshine Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    While Assad and Russia were busy with Aleppo:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ian-airstrikes
    Assad's forces and the Russians have never wavered from their objective of breaking the back of the Syrian rebel forces who are NOT closely affiliated with Islamic State. When that opposition is broken, Assad will be, functionally, back in power and NATO will then be forced to work with him to finish off ISIL. Russia will then actually support efforts against ISIL in Syria, but will likely not do much in Iraq, leaving NATO and the Kurds to pay the price for that portion of it.

    I predict that Russia will then quietly support Erdogan's anti-Kurdistan stance (which NATO formally supports in deference to Turkey), leaving the Kurds having bled for privilege of cleaning up Western Iraq.
    "Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude." -- A. de Tocqueville

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  2. #92
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    The Kurds will undoubtedly get shafted again. Hope that the Iraqi government is able to at least give them concessions at the expense of the sunni arabs in terms of oil revenues to the Kurdish government but that will probably never happen.

    "Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
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  3. #93
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Assad's forces and the Russians have never wavered from their objective of breaking the back of the Syrian rebel forces who are NOT closely affiliated with Islamic State.
    Ostensibly, Russian objective was/is destroyng IS.

  4. #94
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Run N Gun Champion, Hook Line & Sinker Champion, Anime BlackJack Champion, Street Racer Champion, Pipe Mania Champion, Spider Jump Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Soap Bubble Champion, Word Up Champion, Burger Time Champion, Shape Game Champion, Quick Shot Champion, Shuriken Challenge Champion, James Bomb Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Crazy Cars Champion, Space Runner Champion, Submarine Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Chicken Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Squirrel Soccer Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Stuart's Xtreme Skateboarding Champion, Jet Pac Stan Champion, Warthog Launch Champion, Candy Tetris Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Frogger Champion, Slack Man Champion, Fishing the Sea Champion, Mission To Mars Champion, Ollie Skates Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Brighton Bounty Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Rotation Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Ninja Turtles 2 Champion, Ice Racer Champion, Its Mine Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, Stick Avalanche Champion, White Van Man Champion, What-A-Shot Champion, Mars Patrol Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, Magic Ball Champion, BlackJack Champion, Sonny Sunshine Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    The Kurds will undoubtedly get shafted again. Hope that the Iraqi government is able to at least give them concessions at the expense of the sunni arabs in terms of oil revenues to the Kurdish government but that will probably never happen.
    Seems likely to me. Shame really, Kurdistan might actually be an ally if it ever came into existence. Instead, we'll sell them south for one useful airbase and keeping Turkey in NATO.
    "Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude." -- A. de Tocqueville

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    "When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun'.” -- J. H. Marx

  5. #95
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Run N Gun Champion, Hook Line & Sinker Champion, Anime BlackJack Champion, Street Racer Champion, Pipe Mania Champion, Spider Jump Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Soap Bubble Champion, Word Up Champion, Burger Time Champion, Shape Game Champion, Quick Shot Champion, Shuriken Challenge Champion, James Bomb Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Crazy Cars Champion, Space Runner Champion, Submarine Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Chicken Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Squirrel Soccer Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Stuart's Xtreme Skateboarding Champion, Jet Pac Stan Champion, Warthog Launch Champion, Candy Tetris Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Frogger Champion, Slack Man Champion, Fishing the Sea Champion, Mission To Mars Champion, Ollie Skates Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Brighton Bounty Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Rotation Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Ninja Turtles 2 Champion, Ice Racer Champion, Its Mine Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, Stick Avalanche Champion, White Van Man Champion, What-A-Shot Champion, Mars Patrol Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, Magic Ball Champion, BlackJack Champion, Sonny Sunshine Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    Ostensibly, Russian objective was/is destroyng IS.
    Which they will...when it suits the purposes of the Assad regime. Assad has no love for IS...he just wants his home-grown rebels neutralized first.
    "Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude." -- A. de Tocqueville

    "Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite." -- J.K. Galbraith

    "When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun'.” -- J. H. Marx

  6. #96
    Member Member Crandar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    I won't complain when he also purges the thugs of Al-Qaeda and child beheaders. BTW, the original plan was to firstly exterminate ISIS. The plan worked, daesh fighters transformed into fertilizers in Palmyra and Kuweires, but then the moderate fascists realized that with ISIS out of the picture, they would soon join them in the afterlife, so they violated the ceasefire. Nothing surprising, they had conquered Idlib, now their de-facto capital, when Syria was busy fending off ISIS attacks against Palmyra.

    Edit-
    http://en.mehrnews.com/news/121968/Aleppo-liberated

    Last edited by Crandar; 12-12-2016 at 23:08. Reason: Aleppo liberated.

  7. #97
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Which they will...when it suits the purposes of the Assad regime. Assad has no love for IS...he just wants his home-grown rebels neutralized first.
    I don't think Putin does what suits others. He has his agenda and if Assad doesn't suit him anymore Putin will opt for the most
    propitious course of actions never minding Assad.

  8. #98
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Run N Gun Champion, Hook Line & Sinker Champion, Anime BlackJack Champion, Street Racer Champion, Pipe Mania Champion, Spider Jump Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Soap Bubble Champion, Word Up Champion, Burger Time Champion, Shape Game Champion, Quick Shot Champion, Shuriken Challenge Champion, James Bomb Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Crazy Cars Champion, Space Runner Champion, Submarine Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Chicken Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Squirrel Soccer Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Stuart's Xtreme Skateboarding Champion, Jet Pac Stan Champion, Warthog Launch Champion, Candy Tetris Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Frogger Champion, Slack Man Champion, Fishing the Sea Champion, Mission To Mars Champion, Ollie Skates Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Brighton Bounty Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Rotation Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Ninja Turtles 2 Champion, Ice Racer Champion, Its Mine Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, Stick Avalanche Champion, White Van Man Champion, What-A-Shot Champion, Mars Patrol Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, Magic Ball Champion, BlackJack Champion, Sonny Sunshine Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    I don't think Putin does what suits others. He has his agenda and if Assad doesn't suit him anymore Putin will opt for the most
    propitious course of actions never minding Assad.
    Concur. However, at this juncture, Putin does nothing except win points when Assad succeeds. The USA and NATO said GO, whereas we (me Putin) said Assad was the more practical choice. He puts egg on the faces of all in the West and gets to use it for his domestic political agenda/scoring points with public opinion. And since he is ALSO working against IS, Putin can be pretty sure that we won't do squat more than complain.

    Even gives him a toehold in the ME if he wants it.
    "Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude." -- A. de Tocqueville

    "Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite." -- J.K. Galbraith

    "When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun'.” -- J. H. Marx

  9. #99
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    However, at this juncture, Putin does nothing except win points when Assad succeeds.
    And loses points when Assad fails? Then the Palmyra debacle is supposed to be a hard hit.

  10. #100
    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    I won't complain when he also purges the thugs of Al-Qaeda and child beheaders. BTW, the original plan was to firstly exterminate ISIS. The plan worked, daesh fighters transformed into fertilizers in Palmyra and Kuweires, but then the moderate fascists realized that with ISIS out of the picture, they would soon join them in the afterlife, so they violated the ceasefire. Nothing surprising, they had conquered Idlib, now their de-facto capital, when Syria was busy fending off ISIS attacks against Palmyra.

    Edit-
    http://en.mehrnews.com/news/121968/Aleppo-liberated

    Years of Civil War tend to make monsters of men, it doesn't mean they're Fascist. Objectively Assad's government is Fascist whilst the rebels have no coherent ideology. If they are Fascist then their supplanting Assad would be unlikely to make much of a difference to the country.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."


  11. #101
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    I won't complain when he also purges the thugs of Al-Qaeda and child beheaders.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7471416.html
    And Crandar isn't complaining. Walk with pride, man.

  12. #102
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    You really should read the articles you link to.

  13. #103
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Run N Gun Champion, Hook Line & Sinker Champion, Anime BlackJack Champion, Street Racer Champion, Pipe Mania Champion, Spider Jump Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Soap Bubble Champion, Word Up Champion, Burger Time Champion, Shape Game Champion, Quick Shot Champion, Shuriken Challenge Champion, James Bomb Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Crazy Cars Champion, Space Runner Champion, Submarine Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Chicken Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Squirrel Soccer Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Stuart's Xtreme Skateboarding Champion, Jet Pac Stan Champion, Warthog Launch Champion, Candy Tetris Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Frogger Champion, Slack Man Champion, Fishing the Sea Champion, Mission To Mars Champion, Ollie Skates Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Brighton Bounty Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Rotation Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Ninja Turtles 2 Champion, Ice Racer Champion, Its Mine Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, Stick Avalanche Champion, White Van Man Champion, What-A-Shot Champion, Mars Patrol Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, Magic Ball Champion, BlackJack Champion, Sonny Sunshine Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Debacle? Assad has traded ruins in the desert back to IS in order to break the largest remaining power center of the non-IS rebels who are the real threat to HIM. IS is a threat, but he ALREADY has uncle sugar helping him with that one, free of charge. He will let the West degrade IS while he consolidates his own position, then make sure he is in at the finish to reassert control over Western Syria and "help" us fight ISIS so that Putin can then fig-leaf Assad as one of the 'good guys' and how this proves that the USA has no real clue about what works in the Middle East.

    Works for Assad, works for Putin, really works for Putin because ISIS is taking all the USA attention away from Crimea etc.


    And if somehow the non-IS opposition turns it around and ousts Assad (which seems less likely by the day), Putin just plays it off as "we felt Assad the better choice to provide stability and oppose IS." Would he lose a few points? Sure, but not a major prestige hit....and the whole time Crimea is just getting ignored and steadily morphing into "Russian" territory in the collective mind of the West.
    "Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude." -- A. de Tocqueville

    "Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite." -- J.K. Galbraith

    "When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun'.” -- J. H. Marx

  14. #104
    Member Member Crandar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Years of Civil War tend to make monsters of men, it doesn't mean they're Fascist. Objectively Assad's government is Fascist whilst the rebels have no coherent ideology. If they are Fascist then their supplanting Assad would be unlikely to make much of a difference to the country.
    Assad works with nationalists, communists, Kurds, Assyrians, Christians, Shias and Sunnis. So, first point is wrong. Second is actually worse, because poor Al-Qaede didn't use to be a beacon of humanity before the war. The islamofascists in Aleppo and Damascus are Salafists, aka Muslim fascist bigots. The rest are political islamists, which usually means bigots with whom we cooperate.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7471416.html
    And Crandar isn't complaining. Walk with pride, man.
    Nice unverified deflection. Might have worked, but it kind of didn't. Better stay on copy-pasting what national televisions report.

  15. #105
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    The lack of any true 'allies' for us in Syria is one of the reasons why the rebels have only gotten mild support. Policy makers in the west are well aware that aside from the Kurds, any training and weapons provided would eventually be used against the US or its allies (Israel). Egypt has shown that even if they were truly pro-democracy that voice of the people would elect individuals quite opposed to western policy.
    Assad is certainly a son of a bitch but so are his opponents. If it weren't for Assads decades long ties to USSR/Russia, meddling in Lebanon, and anti-Israel stance he would have been warmly tolerated much like Mubarak. Ghadaffi's death showed all the rest of the tinpot dictators what you get for support if you work with the West instead of with Russia and has made diplomatic collaboration that much less likely. The winner is hardpower for the region and lipservice to the West.

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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Years of Civil War tend to make monsters of men, it doesn't mean they're Fascist. Objectively Assad's government is Fascist whilst the rebels have no coherent ideology. If they are Fascist then their supplanting Assad would be unlikely to make much of a difference to the country.
    It will make a difference. Assad regime at least is not sectarian and espouses gender equality. Above is just the typical orientalist tone that contributes nothing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7471416.html
    And Crandar isn't complaining. Walk with pride, man.
    So you just linked an article showing Homs in 2013 passing it off as news. Try different outlets, you're letting your issues with Putin interfere with the facts in Syria.

  17. #107
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    The lack of any true 'allies' for us in Syria is one of the reasons why the rebels have only gotten mild support. Policy makers in the west are well aware that aside from the Kurds, any training and weapons provided would eventually be used against the US or its allies (Israel). Egypt has shown that even if they were truly pro-democracy that voice of the people would elect individuals quite opposed to western policy.
    Assad is certainly a son of a bitch but so are his opponents. If it weren't for Assads decades long ties to USSR/Russia, meddling in Lebanon, and anti-Israel stance he would have been warmly tolerated much like Mubarak. Ghadaffi's death showed all the rest of the tinpot dictators what you get for support if you work with the West instead of with Russia and has made diplomatic collaboration that much less likely. The winner is hardpower for the region and lipservice to the West.
    Intervention in Libya and the toppling of Qaddafi was one of the most stupid pieces of statecraft I've seen in my life, surpassing even Iraq as at least Iraq had no previous examples of utter disaster to draw lessons from, and Qaddafi was at least trying to conform to western demands. The French, who AFAIK headed that effort, have no high horse to mount about Iraq.

  18. #108
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Debacle? Assad has traded ruins in the desert back to IS in order to break the largest remaining power center of the non-IS rebels who are the real threat to HIM. IS is a threat, but he ALREADY has uncle sugar helping him with that one, free of charge. He will let the West degrade IS while he consolidates his own position, then make sure he is in at the finish to reassert control over Western Syria and "help" us fight ISIS so that Putin can then fig-leaf Assad as one of the 'good guys' and how this proves that the USA has no real clue about what works in the Middle East.

    Works for Assad, works for Putin, really works for Putin because ISIS is taking all the USA attention away from Crimea etc.


    And if somehow the non-IS opposition turns it around and ousts Assad (which seems less likely by the day), Putin just plays it off as "we felt Assad the better choice to provide stability and oppose IS." Would he lose a few points? Sure, but not a major prestige hit....and the whole time Crimea is just getting ignored and steadily morphing into "Russian" territory in the collective mind of the West.
    We're not going to upset Russia anyway. News gets tired after a while, but there's always a new winter to look forward to. Russian foreign policy doesn't directly affect us, but energy prices are an immediate concern for everyone, and it's not like the Russians don't know that they can influence other countries through their energy market.

  19. #109
    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Showtime View Post
    It will make a difference. Assad regime at least is not sectarian and espouses gender equality. Above is just the typical orientalist tone that contributes nothing.
    Assad is simply the least Sectarian bastard

    The point is that not all his opponents are bastards, some are genuine Democrats and some of the current bastards started out as Good Guys. A couple of years ago everybody was up in arms about the guy who ate his enemy's heart and filmed it, but further investigation showed that the same guy had been offering an olive branch to a tank during the initial protests.

    Now, I'll grant you that if Assad falls he may well be replaced by a worse bastard but you have to recognise that, if that's the case, it's because the Syrian Arabs keep supporting bastards instead of sane men who can conceive of giving up power after a few years. What's more this starting to look, embarrassingly, like a specifically Arab Muslim problem as neither the Kurds or the Lebonese have as much difficulty with establishing a democracy.

    Assad is a bad ruler - a Tyrant - he should be overthrown. If the Syrians cannot come up with something better than Assad they are doomed.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."


  20. #110
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    We're not going to upset Russia anyway. News gets tired after a while, but there's always a new winter to look forward to. Russian foreign policy doesn't directly affect us, but energy prices are an immediate concern for everyone, and it's not like the Russians don't know that they can influence other countries through their energy market.
    Maybe that's why Trump and others have a pro-global-warming-agenda?


    "Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu

  21. #111
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Assad is simply the least Sectarian bastard

    The point is that not all his opponents are bastards, some are genuine Democrats and some of the current bastards started out as Good Guys. A couple of years ago everybody was up in arms about the guy who ate his enemy's heart and filmed it, but further investigation showed that the same guy had been offering an olive branch to a tank during the initial protests.

    Now, I'll grant you that if Assad falls he may well be replaced by a worse bastard but you have to recognise that, if that's the case, it's because the Syrian Arabs keep supporting bastards instead of sane men who can conceive of giving up power after a few years. What's more this starting to look, embarrassingly, like a specifically Arab Muslim problem as neither the Kurds or the Lebonese have as much difficulty with establishing a democracy.

    Assad is a bad ruler - a Tyrant - he should be overthrown. If the Syrians cannot come up with something better than Assad they are doomed.
    List all the (largely) secular tyrants we've overthrown in the region in the last decade or two, and what came after. Why do you expect anything to happen differently?

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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Assad is simply the least Sectarian bastard

    The point is that not all his opponents are bastards, some are genuine Democrats and some of the current bastards started out as Good Guys. A couple of years ago everybody was up in arms about the guy who ate his enemy's heart and filmed it, but further investigation showed that the same guy had been offering an olive branch to a tank during the initial protests.

    Now, I'll grant you that if Assad falls he may well be replaced by a worse bastard but you have to recognise that, if that's the case, it's because the Syrian Arabs keep supporting bastards instead of sane men who can conceive of giving up power after a few years. What's more this starting to look, embarrassingly, like a specifically Arab Muslim problem as neither the Kurds or the Lebonese have as much difficulty with establishing a democracy.

    Assad is a bad ruler - a Tyrant - he should be overthrown. If the Syrians cannot come up with something better than Assad they are doomed.
    The issue here is that the Democrats you are thinking of are more constrained by their non-Syrian (western, Kurdish) side than it is with its homegrown side. This undermines the plurality that Assadists latch onto.

    I can accept that the Arab Muslim problem is mostly true, but it makes no sense here. First, Syria is a secular Arab republic. Second, living in Damascus you would have little to complain about the regime. The reality is that there is no free speech but this is the dynasty that the Syrian people are accustomed to. Any attempts at reform with respect to the constitution would involve a secular Syrian movement, not a western-backed proxy. You should start by questioning who is more in line with the Syrian constitution and what Assad has actually done to warrant being toppled by outsiders.

    Have you ever asked someone in Moscow what they think of Putin? Ask about Assad in Damascus you’ll get the same answer. These people simply do not care for what you have to say, they have their own thing going on.

  23. #113
    Sovereign Oppressor Member TIE Fighter Shooter Champion, Reactor Champion, Starcastle Champion, Turkey Shoot Champion, Juggler Champion Kralizec's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    Ghadaffi's death showed all the rest of the tinpot dictators what you get for support if you work with the West instead of with Russia and has made diplomatic collaboration that much less likely. The winner is hardpower for the region and lipservice to the West.
    I don't think that's a fair point, really. Looking at it from a western perspective, Quadaffi had financed international terrorists for decades. That he decided to play nice with the west was an extremely opportunist move. I remember reading an article at the time that he sometimes "subtly" threatened diplomats or other leaders with reverting to his old ways afterwards, in order to get his way.

    Quite frankly, the man was a whimsical psychopath and it's no surprise that the west decided to bank their money on the rebels - even with the memory of Iraq fresh in memory. I imagine that other tin-pot dictators like Assad (or Mubarak, or the Tunesian guy who was ousted a few years ago) are quite familiar with Quadaffi's crazyness and can understand.

  24. #114
    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Showtime View Post
    The issue here is that the Democrats you are thinking of are more constrained by their non-Syrian (western, Kurdish) side than it is with its homegrown side. This undermines the plurality that Assadists latch onto.

    I can accept that the Arab Muslim problem is mostly true, but it makes no sense here. First, Syria is a secular Arab republic. Second, living in Damascus you would have little to complain about the regime. The reality is that there is no free speech but this is the dynasty that the Syrian people are accustomed to. Any attempts at reform with respect to the constitution would involve a secular Syrian movement, not a western-backed proxy. You should start by questioning who is more in line with the Syrian constitution and what Assad has actually done to warrant being toppled by outsiders.

    Have you ever asked someone in Moscow what they think of Putin? Ask about Assad in Damascus you’ll get the same answer. These people simply do not care for what you have to say, they have their own thing going on.
    Well, first of all Syria is not a Secular Republic, it's a Tyranny where the current ruling Dynasty is not particularly concerned with the religion of its subjects so long as they're quiet. In such a circumstance religion tolerance is more a question of benign neglect that respect for Freedom of Conscience. Such tolerance is dispensed with as soon as it ceases to be expedient.

    Such regimes are also inherently unstable - because there is no democratic way to change the regime economic misfortune usually leads to revolts and the regime responds with slaughter - as in Syria.

    Absent a generally recognised Caliph or democratic states the Arab world will continue to move through circles of war, destruction, recrimination, and recovery dictated by the economic cycle.

    My Uncle believes the Arabs are doomed so long as they continue to follow Islam because they will always look for "strongman" rulers, rejecting democratic reform or pluralism because it is seen as counter to Islam.

    I'm not convinced he's right but on the other hand the only actual Secular Republic in the Middle East is Lebanon, and it's roughly 50% Christian with the largest Christian denomination being almost as large as the Sunni or Shia population.
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  25. #115
    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    List all the (largely) secular tyrants we've overthrown in the region in the last decade or two, and what came after. Why do you expect anything to happen differently?
    They were not remotely Sectarian (Under the Sunni Ba'arthis Sunnis were better off than Shia), they were simply securely in charge and not insane Zealots.

    Don't confuse the two.
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  26. #116
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    They were not remotely Sectarian (Under the Sunni Ba'arthis Sunnis were better off than Shia), they were simply securely in charge and not insane Zealots.

    Don't confuse the two.
    Not by western standards they weren't secular. But then Israel is insanely religion-ruled by western standards, yet is by far the most secular state in the region. If you judge these countries by western standards, they'll always fall short. By the standards of the region though, is different. And experience after experience has shown that, when you topple these relatively secular (yet unsatisfactory to you) tyrants, Salafist nuts take over. However much you may wish for their people to see the sense of liberal democracy. In that region, liberalism is going to be hard pressed anyway. Introduce democracy, or upset the status quo so that the groundswell can decide their own destiny, and liberalism will die off altogether. It's how that region is, and neocons and their descendants should stop wishing otherwise in the face of all evidence.

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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Not by western standards they weren't secular. But then Israel is insanely religion-ruled by western standards, yet is by far the most secular state in the region. If you judge these countries by western standards, they'll always fall short. By the standards of the region though, is different. And experience after experience has shown that, when you topple these relatively secular (yet unsatisfactory to you) tyrants, Salafist nuts take over. However much you may wish for their people to see the sense of liberal democracy. In that region, liberalism is going to be hard pressed anyway. Introduce democracy, or upset the status quo so that the groundswell can decide their own destiny, and liberalism will die off altogether. It's how that region is, and neocons and their descendants should stop wishing otherwise in the face of all evidence.
    Cynic. Next you are going to tell me that 250k troops for security and 100k teachers, physicians, engineers, trainers and management design specialists for a 30-50 year nation building project in order to effect a stable, secular, democratic republic based on gender equality and the rule of law is somehow impractical. What a naysayer.
    "Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude." -- A. de Tocqueville

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  28. #118
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Cynic. Next you are going to tell me that 250k troops for security and 100k teachers, physicians, engineers, trainers and management design specialists for a 30-50 year nation building project in order to effect a stable, secular, democratic republic based on gender equality and the rule of law is somehow impractical. What a naysayer.
    You've forgotten the first step. Flatten the country with ordnance and starve the people into submission so you can carry out your subsequent plans on your terms. If you can't be bothered to do that, then the above won't work. In some ways, the Russian plan for Syria is more conducive to creating a stable, secular, democratic republic based on gender equality and the rule of law, as they're at least doing the first step I describe.

  29. #119
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    Maybe that's why Trump and others have a pro-global-warming-agenda?
    I like to imagine a couple of billionaires were tricked into buying beach side resorts in scotland and the only way to save face they can think of is to turn the hebrides into a tropical archepelago.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 12-15-2016 at 08:00.
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  30. #120
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    Default Re: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    They were not remotely Sectarian (Under the Sunni Ba'arthis Sunnis were better off than Shia), they were simply securely in charge and not insane Zealots.

    Don't confuse the two.
    And Tikritis were better than everyone else. Never underestimate the tribal factor. That's what allowed the US to put down the first insurgency and Baghdad not following the American promises is what led to daesh.

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