SYRIA thread

[Elmetiacos]

Or it could be a happy (well sort of) lucky hit on the rebels stockpile...

Still waiting for the evidences, and we French have good reasons to doubt the CIA/MI5 ones! Remember WMD?

One thing the chemical weapons experts agree on is that this is very unlikely as sarin will degrade if stored in a state where it could be released by a rupture to the case it has been stored in. Unless the rebels somehow have a working chemical weapons plant which works to produce a different formulation from that used by the Syrian government, there's now way this Russian suggestion is possible.

[Gilrandir]

Or it could be a happy (well sort of) lucky hit on the rebels stockpile...

Still waiting for the evidences, and we French have good reasons to doubt the CIA/MI5 ones! Remember WMD?

The airfield is still held by Assad, so only he (and Putin) knows the truth. Do you expect to get any reliable evidence from them (or Russians)?

[Crandar]

The owner of the airfield is called Syria, not Assad. Just like the owner of every public structure in your homeland is called Ukraine and not Poroshenko.

[Gilrandir]

The owner of the airfield is called Syria, not Assad. Just like the owner of every public structure in your homeland is called Ukraine and not Poroshenko.

I accept your correction. But in case of Syria there are different belligerents some of whom are as Syrian as Assad, and I used metonymy to be clear. So it was something like "Moscow claims" or "the White House believes".

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...ussian-forces/

Russia is raising the prospect of war.

[Strike For The South]

A traditional shooting match ends up in a Russian loss
Putin wants to see a return to Russian greatness, a nuclear exchange would snuff that out
hence the information war

[Brenus]

The airfield is still held by Assad, so only he (and Putin) knows the truth. Do you expect to get any reliable evidence from them (or Russians)?

Agree. However the US attacked telling the world the Syrian Air Forces use chemical weapons.
The Syrians are saying they hit a munitions depot and it exploded, so what was in this depot killed the civilians.
And History proved that CIA and other Western Allies can't be trusted either.

[Brenus]

[QUOTE=Elmetiacos;2053744485 Unless the rebels somehow have a working chemical weapons plant which works to produce a different formulation from that used by the Syrian government, there's now way this Russian suggestion is possible.[/QUOTE]
Can buy it, no?

[Gilrandir]

Agree. However the US attacked telling the world the Syrian Air Forces use chemical weapons.
The Syrians are saying they hit a munitions depot and it exploded, so what was in this depot killed the civilians.
And History proved that CIA and other Western Allies can't be trusted either.

Since no side can be trusted what's the use of waiting for reliable evidence from any quarter?

[Elmetiacos]

Can buy it, no?

Realistically, no.

[Elmetiacos]

Since no side can be trusted what's the use of waiting for reliable evidence from any quarter?

Let's wait for an international team of enquiry before we assume that the Americans were behind the American missile attack.

[Brenus]

Realistically, no.

I don't know any weapon which can't bought... Or provided.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I don't know any weapon which can't bought... Or provided.

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

I suppose it's possible the gas was looted from a Syrian Army or Air Force depo at the start of the war and has been kept since then because in order to get rid of it the rebels would have to admit they had it.

However, that the equivalent of rebels in Russia looting nukes - which irrc never actually happened.

[Elmetiacos]

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

I suppose it's possible the gas was looted from a Syrian Army or Air Force depo at the start of the war and has been kept since then because in order to get rid of it the rebels would have to admit they had it.

However, that the equivalent of rebels in Russia looting nukes - which irrc never actually happened.

This is the problem: pre-war Sarin created and stored in this way would have degraded and be useless by now. The only viable way to store it over such a length of time is by separating the chemical reagents into at least two separate parts which don't degrade as quickly. Bombing would therefore not release any lethal gas.

[Fragony]

A traditional shooting match ends up in a Russian loss
Putin wants to see a return to Russian greatness, a nuclear exchange would snuff that out
hence the information war

Ever considered that Russia is much more worried about China and couldn't care less about the west

[AE Bravo]

B-b-but guys, I thought I had voted for the pacifist one, not war-crazy Shillary.
I thought we were gonna invade Saudi Arabia not bomb Syrian pilots. Did the God-Emperor lie t-t-to gain votes? Won't we drain the swamp until we MAGA it to death?!

MAAQA. Make America Al Qaeda's Airforce.

[Elmetiacos]

Ever considered that Russia is much more worried about China and couldn't care less about the west

That's why they invaded Ukraine - to spite the Chinese.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Ever considered that Russia is much more worried about China and couldn't care less about the west

Yes and no Frags.

In the sense that China is a major power and they share a border and China is using illegals to stake claim to territory out there, yes Russian clearly sees China as competition. And I am sure they have mixed feelings regarding Chinese efforts to build relationships with the Central Asian 'stans. On the other hand, Russia has a strategic deterrent that dwarfs China's, and any direct attack would have to go a long way to really cut Russia up. So the threat is muted somewhat.

By contrast, Russian has looked to Europe and steadfastly insisted on being thought of as European at least as far back as Czar Peter, if not before. China may be more of a threat, per se, but it is Europe that looms largest in the Russian psyche.

[Sarmatian]

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

There have been talk of rebels smuggling gas from Iraq and Turkey since 2014. A photographed barrel which was allegedly used for a gas attack in 2014 had the words "Norinco" visible (Chinese arms manufacturer) on it. On its own, doesn't mean much, they may have just made the barrel, but there you have it... A lot of players with a lot of conflicting interests.

In the case of this attack, we basically still don't know anything. The conclusion that it was sarin is based on doctors' identification of the symptoms (although I would assume that shortness of breath and dizziness accompanies pretty much all gas attacks). Doctors also mentioned that victims "smelled of bleach" which would indicate chlorine.

Until OPCW conducts an investigation, all these real and quasi experts in the newspapers are guessing.

It is worth mentioning that all OPCW reports from 2013 onward identify Syrian government as fully cooperative.

[Montmorency]

I noted this a year ago, but it's interesting that there were a fair number of chemical attacks in the first half of 2014, and of 2015, while other than a relatively-big incident in Aleppo in 2016, it seemed to have petered out recently.

[Elmetiacos]

So the Syrian government would never make poison gas, but the Chinese, Iraqi and Turkish governments, they all would, and then they'd sell it to terrorists?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

There have been talk of rebels smuggling gas from Iraq and Turkey since 2014. A photographed barrel which was allegedly used for a gas attack in 2014 had the words "Norinco" visible (Chinese arms manufacturer) on it. On its own, doesn't mean much, they may have just made the barrel, but there you have it... A lot of players with a lot of conflicting interests.

In the case of this attack, we basically still don't know anything. The conclusion that it was sarin is based on doctors' identification of the symptoms (although I would assume that shortness of breath and dizziness accompanies pretty much all gas attacks). Doctors also mentioned that victims "smelled of bleach" which would indicate chlorine.

Until OPCW conducts an investigation, all these real and quasi experts in the newspapers are guessing.

It is worth mentioning that all OPCW reports from 2013 onward identify Syrian government as fully cooperative.

Well, on the one hand you have this:

So the Syrian government would never make poison gas, but the Chinese, Iraqi and Turkish governments, they all would, and then they'd sell it to terrorists?

On the other hand, it seems the majority of attacks, the vast majority, have been directed at non-government forces. There are no records of confirmed Sarin attacks by rebels since 2013 which is consistent with looting supply dumps in the initial madness of the war. Since 2013 most attacks have been with Chlorine.

I suspect that the identification of Sarin in this case has a lot to do the reports immediately after the attack which mention nothing of odour.

In any case, there's no reason to believe it's not the regime.

It's also worth noting the Syrian Air Force continues to bomb the town - suggesting there's a reason they targeted it with gas, possible a high-value target has gone to ground there.

[Brenus]

In any case, there's no reason to believe it's not the regime.

Believe? Double negation and a belief? And you bomb a country?
It was no reason not to believe that Saddam had WMD. Same for it was no reason not to believe that Milosevic was implementing Horse Shoes Operation in Kosovo, and throwing his victims in mines pits...
Yes, they could have done it. They just didn't, did they?
So until solid proof based on more reliable sources that the rebels doctors (by the way, where the white helmets? Did they vanished in the thin air?), we will not know what product was employed, and by whom... Find the munition/container used...

[Fragony]

Better question, how would Assad benefit from using it, pretty big decision to use that stuff. Rogue general perhaps? Assad is no fool he knows he would be internationally cast out by just about everyone. Trump's decision to attack that airport is questionable to say the least whatever what

[AE Bravo]

Better question, how would Assad benefit from using it, pretty big decision to use that stuff. Rogue general perhaps?

Deja vu. Might be like the last time. A dissident until further notice.

[Gilrandir]

Yes and no Frags.

In the sense that China is a major power and they share a border and China is using illegals to stake claim to territory out there, yes Russian clearly sees China as competition. And I am sure they have mixed feelings regarding Chinese efforts to build relationships with the Central Asian 'stans. On the other hand, Russia has a strategic deterrent that dwarfs China's, and any direct attack would have to go a long way to really cut Russia up. So the threat is muted somewhat.

By contrast, Russian has looked to Europe and steadfastly insisted on being thought of as European at least as far back as Czar Peter, if not before. China may be more of a threat, per se, but it is Europe that looms largest in the Russian psyche.

On relations between Russia and China:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33196396
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...d=82969&page=1
When China sees a propitious moment, it will play "oppressed Chinese speakers" card. Or is it purely Russian way?

[Fragony]

Deja vu. Might be like the last time. A dissident until further notice.

Qui bono no? In a money-scam you follow the money, should do the same here but inf.uence as the currency. Assad is an asshole but I would be really surprised if he did this, not because he would never do such a thing but simply because it's absolutily not in his interests to have a pr-nightmare

[Husar]

Qui bono no?

No. Cui bono.

[Fragony]

No. Cui bono.

Don't critisise my Spanish

[Shaka_Khan]

Trump won't overthrow Assad while the Russians are there. Unlike what a lot of the people are thinking, Assad's regime won't fall that easily. The rebels aren't strong enough to overthrow him. The war will go on and on and on.