Gameroom Rock/Paper/Scissors Tournament IV

[GeneralHankerchief]

I want to bet 20 on 3 or more rocks thrown in the first round. Anyone take it?

Initial throws only, or factoring in rethrows?

[edse]

Initial throws only, or factoring in rethrows?

With rethrows. I misscalculated though, I meant the double (the probability is very high and no one should take it). The correct bet is 20 gold on a total of 6 or more rocks thrown in the first round.

[Zack]

I'll take the bet against.

[Al Sipsclar]

6 or more in 24 throws is still like 86% chance. I want a share in your profits, so I'll also bet 20 with you and hedge my chances with 2 gold against.

[edse]

6 or more in 24 throws is still like 86% chance. I want a share in your profits, so I'll also bet 20 with you and hedge my chances with 2 gold against.

It's only 12 throws + possible rethrows. Should be around 16 throws in total.

[Zack]

I withdraw my bet.

[edse]

I think the bet is quite fair. I quickly calculated that the expected number of rocks is 5,33 but I haven't calculated the probability.

[Al Sipsclar]

For 16 it's only 45%, so come back, Zack, we play fair here.

[Zack]

You're assuming random, but 2 people are betting on it...

[GeneralHankerchief]

So, just to ensure I've got it right:

edse is betting 20 gold that at least six Rocks are shown.
Al Sipsclar is betting the same.
Al Sipsclar is also hedging by betting 2 gold that less than six Rocks are shown.

So, assuming no further betting on this issue, if we have 6+ rocks then edse is up 2 and Al Sips is down 2.
And if we have >6 rocks then edse is down 20 and Al Sips is up 20.
If someone else was to get in on the bet then edse's share would not move but Al Sips would receive less than 20 if we had >6 rocks shown (-edit- but he'd also be down 20 from losing the other side of his hedge)

Correct?

Told you this would be ad hoc

[Al Sipsclar]

replace ">6" with "<6", then yeah.
and I'll receive part of my 20 proportional to my 2

[seireikhaan]

You will note that this tournament has 13 entrants instead of 12. The top four seeds will still receive first-round byes in the knockout round, but last place, the #13 seed, will miss out on the knockout round entirely. This is done to patch out an exploit that a certain person WHO WILL REMAIN NAMELESS used in order to go into the knockout round while purposely not scoring a single point in the round robin.

You give me too little credit. You aint seen nothin' yet.

[Myrddraal]

The mind boggles... I probably should know more about how this betting thing actually works before throwing myself into it.

Can I bet with skewed odds?

i.e. I'll take 10 if fewer than 6 rocks are shown, but give away 5 if 6 or more show?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Yes, but you have to get someone to agree to those stakes.

[Al Sipsclar]

The mind boggles... I probably should know more about how this betting thing actually works before throwing myself into it.

Can I bet with skewed odds?

i.e. I'll take 10 if fewer than 6 rocks are shown, but give away 5 if 6 or more show?

There are 42 gold currently wagered. If you bet 5 against 6+ rocks showing up, the pot will become 47 gold, and if <6 rocks are thrown, you and I will split it according to our wagers, 5:2. That is you get 34 gold, and I get 13 gold. If 6 or more are thrown, you lose your 5 gold bet.

[Winston Hughes]

I'd like to wager 10 gold that fresh-faced rookie Myrddraal will defeat Old Man Sigurd (aka The Grey Bridesmaid) in the D1 match up.

Any takers?

[Zack]

I'll take that winston. 10 gold on sigurd.

[Winston Hughes]

That gold's as good as mine.

[Al Sipsclar]

I'll side with Winston and bet 10 on Myrddraal.

[edse]

I'll side with Winston and bet 10 on Myrddraal.

Al Sipsclar, I don't think this betting system works very well in this case (your bet made Winston's possible profit to drop from 10 to 5 without him confirming it). The bets work better if they are made between only between two people.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Al Sipsclar, I don't think this betting system works very well in this case (your bet made Winston's possible profit to drop from 10 to 5 without him confirming it). The bets work better if they are made between only between two people.

I think starting with next round people could say that they'll match all bets or something to that effect in order to get around this.

-edit- Alternatively, I could look up "how to be a bookie" once I'm able to do so on a computer where I won't get fired for adding it to my search history.

[Winston Hughes]

I assumed any offered bet on an outcome would need to be met with a bet from somebody else on the opposing outcome.

Thus, Zack and I have already set our stakes against one another, and Al needs someone else to step up and bet against his 10 on Myrddraal for his wager to be activated, with GH needing only to act as bank (and referee in case of dispute).

[Zack]

One thing we can reasonably conclude from all this: gambling is not one of GeneralHankerchief's vices.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Anyway, waiting on @Visorslash, @atheotes, and @El Barto.

[Al Sipsclar]

Al Sipsclar, I don't think this betting system works very well in this case (your bet made Winston's possible profit to drop from 10 to 5 without him confirming it). The bets work better if they are made between only between two people.

Ok, I probably misunderstood (or didn't even try to understand) the betting system that was offered. But the shared pot and changing outcomes is what makes the betting interesting. If it's only the private bets between two people then meh.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I might be overthinking. Maybe it would be easier if I split it into two categories:

- General bets, where bettors only have to say how much they're wagering that a certain outcome will happen, and then they get what they get out of it depending on how many people are involved. Bets that don't get taken obviously go back to the initial person regardless of the outcome.

- Specific side bets between two people of course.

[Zack]

Maybe GH can introduce prop bets (e.g. something like edse's bet, x number of draws this round, y number of upsets, that sort of thing) that everyone can bet on, creating a prize pool that gets distributed out to the winners.

[edse]

I might be overthinking. Maybe it would be easier if I split it into two categories:

- General bets, where bettors only have to say how much they're wagering that a certain outcome will happen, and then they get what they get out of it depending on how many people are involved. Bets that don't get taken obviously go back to the initial person regardless of the outcome.

- Specific side bets between two people of course.

This sounds like a good compromise.

I'm still waiting for someone to take my bet for 20 gold on a total of more than 6 rocks thrown in the first round. It's a somewhat fair bet I can assure you! The probability for more than 6 rocks in only the initial throws is only 0,17.

In the meantime I can pool 10 gold on sigurd winning on day 1

[El Barto]

I be throwin' a proposition bet, if it be allowed, on there bein' three ties in th' first roun' at least. Ten gold pieces on that, arrr.

Zackbeard, what say ye?

[Myrddraal]

@El Barto, I'll take you up if you'll accept my two gold pieces to your ten.