A quick note about WW theory and how I will play this game. Note that the arguments and facts presented here are indisputable, and that I will not engage in arguments about them, because those arguments are you wasting everyone else's time about meta that is well and comprehensively established. Go make reads so we can read you.
I've reflected on my role and realized that there is a GTO play for me in this game, and therefore I am compelled to pursue it. I am going to brute force my clearness immediately upon the opening of the thread.
I am hard-claiming, and I will never be rescinding. I am the seer. When it becomes prudent I will provide my peek.
Benefits:
1. I will survive tonight: I do not believe the wolves are able to kill me tonight, because it is so objectively unlikely that I would ever do this as the seer. I believe that this decision reduces the importance of the seer cover to be provided by all of you to the point of it being negligible. The wolves have already been outplayed, as it were.
2. I'm lock clear: All of you already know I'm lock clear, because it is so objectively unlikely that I would do this as a wolf. You know this for at least two reasons. First, this is the easiest, lowest-stress, lowest-demand game to wolf in that I've ever played in (except for turbos). I have no need to complicate my life, as a wolf, by open-claiming on thread open, when all Ihave to do is provide like a C-level wolf game to probably win. This is the rare instance where you literally [i]know[i] that I have a billion other options as a wolf, AND that I would pursue probably ALL of
them before pursuing this. Second, I engage in FPS exceedingly rarely, which necessarily means that I *know* that this will look WEIRD and SHOCKING to you. There is no merit to a wolf play that instantly generates WEIRD and SHOCKED responses that I would be obligated to finesse and manage for the remainder of the game. As a villager, which I am, the burden is totally on you to not **** up and lynch me. Makes my life super awesome.
3. There are only 11 players you need to try to read, rather than 12: I have already provided a "free" peek of me in a game with a mere 13 players. Our win equity is dramatically improved by my being entirely off the table for the entire game.
Conclusion:
The burden of sound reasoning is now entirely upon you. I am the seer, and thus a villager, and thus lock clear. The game is immediately simpler than it would otherwise have been, because of my decision. Now, let us enjoy that benefit and win the game.
Also, to preempt a lengthy and pointless discussion.
It is NOT dumb to ponder this post and convince yourself of its wisdom. That is your obligation as a villager, and I encourage you to think it over for as long as it takes to quell your (initially valid but ultimately unnecessary) concerns.
It IS dumb to, AFTER doing that pondering, conclude that I'm "neutral" or "wolfy." That is legitimately stupid, and I won't entertain it. ONE of the reasons it is a stupid conclusion is that the upside of this play as a wolf is absolutely DWARFED by the upside of this play as a villager. There is no equivalency between the EV gain for wolf-me in this position and villager-me in this position. They're universes apart. That means I wouldn't DO the poorer option of the two (by extension, wolf-me also wouldn't BELIEVE that I could convince the entire game of the truth of these assertions for the entire game, which as an end-game wolf I would have to believe if this strategem were to be worth pursuing). A SECOND reason that conclusion is stupid is that the EV bonus of oding this as a wolf is COMPLETELY DWARFED by me baseline wolf EV anyway. Anything that complicates my wolfing life is RIDICULOUSLY stupid for me to do, given that my wolfing life is ALREADY one of the smoothest, highest expectation wolfing lives in WW history anyway. A THIRD reason that conclusion is stupid is that you would probably have to worry about being EXPLOITED by this gambit in order to get there. However, I have NEVER engaged in this, or any similar, gambit in my entire career, meaning that if there IS exploitation to be had with this play, it is in FUTURE GAMES, not this game. For these reasons, pressuring me is extremely wolfy and should not be engaged in by any villager, ever, in this game. There will be no less productive pursuit than that in this game.
Sucks for the wolves when meta is wielded this brutally, but my allegiance is plain and my strategy perfect. Get #rekt.
Originally Posted by El Barto
Re: IKEA mafia
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks