"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Doesn't seem likely.There isn't one, that's the point.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
There's a bright point I suppose. Immigration from the EU is down in some areas, and existing EU immigrants are wanting out.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2...e-brexit-vote/Nurses from Europe are turning their backs on Britain, according to new figures showing the number registering to work here since the Brexit referendum has fallen by 90 per cent.
Just 101 nurses and midwives from other European nations joined the register to work here last month - a drop from 1,304 in July, the month immediately after the referendum, official figures show.
The statistics from the Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) also show a rise in the number of EU nurses who have decided to stop working in the UK.
Last month, 318 decided to leave the NMC’s register - almost twice the 177 who did so in June, the month of the referendum.
The number of overseas nurses asking for an application pack to register to work in Britain also fell dramatically, with just 453 enquiries in December - compared with 697 in July. An even sharper drop was seen last February, after rules were changed to allow regulators to carry out language tests.
Last January, almost 3,700 nurses and midwives from the Continent asked for an application pack - but after the clampdown, the figure fell to just 861 the following month, since when it has dropped.
The NHS is heavily reliant on overseas workers, and the number of nurses coming to Britain from elsewhere in Europe has tripled in the last four years.
...
Racist attacks on NHS staff have more than doubled in a year, with Brexit blamed for inflaming tensions in hospitals. Assaults on health service employees involving religious or racial factors rose from 225 in 2014-15 to 496 in 2015/16, with a continued rise in recent months, official statistics show.
Earlier this month, it emerged that almost every hospital in the UK has a shortage of nurses.
Staff said patients were being left unwashed, unmonitored and without crucial medications, amid a worsening crisis in the country’s hospitals.
Last week it emerged that more than 7,000 nurse posts could be axed from NHS hospitals across the country despite a mounting Accident & Emergency crisis.
Every area has been ordered to draw up measures to save £22 billion and reorganise health services in order to meet rising demand from an ageing population.
But the documents suggest that the proposals could result in the loss of more than 17,000 staff by 2020 – including 7,300 nurses and midwives.
Well, just claiming it is overcrowded doesn't tell me anything useful either because I have no idea what the statement is based on or why he thinks so.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pulation-panicIn the end, perhaps only two things can be said for certain about population trends. Sooner or later, they make fools of those who offer dramatic forecasts. But people will keep making them. In 1960, in the US journal Science, a paper by the distinguished physicist and philosopher Heinz von Foerster and two colleagues declared, “Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve to death. They will be squeezed to death.” The paper was titled Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, AD 2026. See you in the northern ticket hall then?
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
We are the 50-most populous in the world, and many of the most populous above us are either horribly overcrowded and suffer socially as a result (Japan, Hong Kong), Micro-Stare or Enclaves (Monaco, Gibraltar, the Vatican), or tiny Island nations (Bermuda, Malta).
At the same time there are ~30 fewer people per square kilometre in Germany and ~120 fewer in France.
Let me give you a concrete example. I live in the City of Exeter, I have friends living in the village of Pinhoe, it's about an hour's walk between the two but over the last four years that walk has gone from about 50% fields to 25% fields and dropping. In another five years Exeter will effectively swallow Pinhoe whole.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@50.74.../data=!3m1!1e3
Google Earth actually shows you the bit under development, you can actually see the boundaries between village and city being blurred.
Londoners don't appreciate how horribly smelly and cramped London appears to oursiders, they are immune to the sensation of being "squashed" because they are already so closely packed.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
Things like that happen in Germany just as well, the entire Ruhrgebiet is slowly growing together. A lot of that is probably due to urbanization and less so due to immigration. When you zoom out from your google maps view, you see fields everywhere. Pinhoe and Exeter probably started to grow together somewhere around the middle ages. What's funny is that the Brexit also causes Britain to compete against its neighbors, and a larger population is a competitive advantage. So we'll see about that.
I would actually agree in general that the planet has far too much population given the goals of consumption everyone has. But Britain being overcrowded sounds a bit off given that Israel, Japan and so on are even more densely populated and seem to make it work. To just claim that they have problems from overpopulation does not convince me really, you'd have to show a bit more than that. I mean surely they have problems, but I'm not sure they're caused by overpopulation in a significant way. Tokyo's crowded subway system can be attributed to urbanization, centralization and the height of buildings just the same. If they spread the population more evenly around the country, that problem could be gone.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Pinhoe was mostly fields until a few decades ago, the bit that currently connects it to Exeter is an Industrial estate built, irrc, in the early 90's, so during my lifetime. Those fields are for sheep and cows, so as Exeter expands it destroys its own local food supply. Who's buying these houses though? Some are locals, true, but that's because people commute from Exeter to London and Bristol - that's threee hours to London. Rather puts London's quality of life into perspective. Urbanisation is part of a function of over-crowding. As more and more people are born the jobs dry up in rural areas, so people move to the cities, which therefore expand, swallowing the surrounding rural areas and destroying the basis for the rural economy (land). This results in rural over-population which causes people to move to cities and... you get the picture.
In Britain we're reaching a tipping point similar to the one after WWII where we had our last population explosion. the difference is that this time the population explosion is caused by immigration, without immigration the population would be slowly falling and might stabilise, alleviating the need for so much new housing.
As a result many people are resentful of immigration they see as uncontrolled (because it's enshrined in EU treaty and not a policy they can vote a government out for). This feeling of lack of control is a big part of why many people voted Out and the key theme my father returns to (you may recall he's Swedish, so he can't vote himself). Lack of control over agricultural policy is another reason people voted Out and probably a bigger one where I grew up than immigration.
Now, frankly, I think Pannonion et al bear a significant amount of the responsibility for the rise in racist attacks. It was Remain who said that those who voted Leave were racists and Xenophobes, so when Leave won the racists and Xenophobes felt empowered. That's why I'm annoyed people KEEP going on about it. If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.
I want the same thing for Europe everyone else here does - peace, prosperity and happiness for everyone - I just happen to believe the EU can't deliver those things.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
I think you got it wrong again. As I understand you, you don't like urban life for yourself, so you see everything through that lens.
I can't seem to find anything that suggests overpopulation were the cause of urbanization. As you say yourself, your population is shrinking without immigration, and immigrants tend to go to cities right away. Job in the countryside are drying up because people are leaving and because the jobs there are increasing automated. Cities also offer other bonuses such as better access to modern technology, economies of scale for the ones offering it and so on. The impact of cities destroying the surrounding economy may exist but it has to be incredibly small compared to every other factor. One might as well claim that more smaller villages mean more road connections, power lines and other infrastructure and pollution from all the driving around that destroys just as much or even more land than expanding cities.
People began to move to cities in the Middle Ages already, the additional housing there is needed anyway. Technically the empty houses in the countryside could be razed though to let the area be reclaimed by nature.
We will see whether curbing immigration will actually help. a shrinking population is a terrible economic prospect if one can't increase exports. Not only does the relation of pensioners to paying workers increase (in addition to medical reasons), it also means the markets shrink whereas businesses want to grow. Of course one business can still grow by cannibalizing another, but if the new business is less labor intensive, you end up with more unemployed people again. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm sceptical for now and need to sleep.
Have a good night.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Trying to find logical reasons for Leave is wrong as the referendum was really about giving people a way to say **** YOU to the system. They took the opportunity provided and that's it. Very little logic, more about baser emotions.
It seems to me at the current stage it doesn't matter what reasons made people vote Out. Just like it doesn't matter why people voted for Trump. Both categories can justify their choice by the most benevolent intentions, but both nations now have to face the consequences which are (to my mind) are not what they had wanted to see. And I'd venture to presume the worst is yet to come.
All the doom and gloom prediction were about what happens when Britain leaves EU. Britain is still in EU.
You can't disbelieve negative consequences of the Brexit by cherry picking worst predictions and stating they didn't materialize. The sun will rise again the day after article 50 is triggered, and againt after UK actually leaves.
Godzilla won't appear but negative consequences will be felt by most people. The real cost, though, will be in opportunities lost, both economically and politically.
EDIT: On the other hand, there is still a chance, however small, that EU crumbles under its own weight, in which case the general consensus will be that UK made an excellent choice.
Last edited by Sarmatian; 02-07-2017 at 19:07.
The damage of brexit is entirely dependant on access to the single market, access that I find reason to believe will be granted without the immigration requirements.
I say this because for all their bluster the EU is not stupid enough to believe the brexit damage will be one way only, as a leaked report indicates
Bother, I believe you caught me falling into the EU = Europe trap.
I meant the European nations arent stupid enough to believe the damage will be one sided. The EU being one more nation leaving away from collapse has two choices let britain keep the single market or be the scapegoat for the local european politicians when the local deficit balloons.
Rock and hard place, perhaps, but at the tail end of an age where can kicking became an artform it is obvious what the favourable choice will be.
It would almost be that most European countries want free trade and put up with the rest as an unfortunate side effect - and we can't have that! Many countries would fragment (Scotland would cede, perhaps Belgium would fall apart, Spain, perhaps Italy) if they had the security from NATO and borderless trade there would be much less need to be in a larger country.
And then what would all the bureaucrats do? Try and climb the new greasy poles? No - best keep things they are.
An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
"If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill
Oh, I'm not saying there will be no pain, I'm just saying that the pre-Brexit predictions were all worst-case scenario and ONE prediction was that as soon as the result came through our economy would start to collapse as international trade and investment dried up.
Clearly, that hasn't happened and now looks unlikely, after an initial wobble international business has generally decided it still wants to trade with Britain and in Britain. At the same time our international partners are rapidly coming to the realisation that an independent Britain will be much easier to do a trade deal with than Europe.
Now, when we do leave there will be a period of painful adjustment but it's entirely unclear how long that period will be, how painful, and what we will be adjusting to. The same voices as before are predicting Armageddon, but they now ring hollow.
So, time to admit we don't know what the future holds, and by the by we can't command the sea to retreat either.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
I know for certain that the Norway model that you thought was the most likely result is definitely off the cards, as the PM has ruled out one of the preconditions. So we won't have the same access to the single market, which accounts for 50% of our exports. We'll need to renegotiate a trade deal to have some kind of access, which has been confirmed won't be as privileged as before (again, this isn't guesswork, but quotes from the powers that be). There are any number of areas where we are uncertain, but we are certain of the above.
Something else that has been predicted, that is coming to pass bit by bit, is increased costs leading to companies passing on the costs to their customers. For some things we can just do without. However, Labour recently mooted a proposal to cap energy costs. Which suggests there is at least some realistic possibility that energy will be one of the things that will increase in cost in the coming future. Should we do without heating in the future, as one of the necessary belt tightening costs that political Brexit (such as you've trumpeted) will require?
We trade with China, America, India without a trade agreement. Somehow we manage.
With the EU it'll be interesting to see whether the pragmatists or ideologues win out.
An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
"If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill
It's easy to cry about bureaucrats. The governments of the member states agreed to freedom of movement. That was a long time ago, with fewer member states, but when Cameron tried to get restrictions on it the other countries didn't jump on the bandwagon with him.
The Dutch PVV tried to score points with the public a couple of years ago by agitating against eastern Europeans. It only earned them a modest popularity boost at best, and you rarely hear about it from them nowadays. They've returned to their usual tropes of bashing Islam and the European Union on more general subjects. Freedom of movement isn't controversial over here, even if the EU itself is lacking in popularity.
That there's going to be some sort of compromise between the UK and the EU almost goes without saying, but it's not going to give the UK the same kind of market acces it has today. Even if only for legalistic reasons - you simply can't be part of a trade bloc and retain the ability to negotiate trade deals with third parties, which is one of the government's stated goals.
Whenever I bring up the issue of racist attacks, both the Leave supporters and the Trump supporters ignore the topic because they think it's a waste of their time. They ridicule people like us for bringing it up. Can't people solve problems without having people suffer? I know a British national whose mother is from the Philippines. He was punched in the face in England at a sidewalk. Racist attacks are really happening more ever since the Brexit. I'm not saying that this is the case with you: I noticed that a lot of the Brexit supporters have a problem with cultures that are different from theirs. I came from a city where I myself was in the minority, so it doesn't bother me whether I'm in the majority or minority. Hearing different languages in my home city didn't bother me. This is why I couldn't relate to some of the people who felt uncomfortable with the other cultures.If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.
This is an issue that interests me very much. I wonder how the Leave supporters feel about it now, and whether they feel any benefits. Is it worth it? The people who opposed Leave are still against it now. If the Brexit is any indication, it seems like a lot of the Trump supporters will continue to support him for a long time. I'm anxious to know when the general population will come to the same conclusion.
Last edited by Shaka_Khan; 02-18-2017 at 08:15.
Wooooo!!!
-double post-
Last edited by Shaka_Khan; 02-18-2017 at 08:07.
Wooooo!!!
While the large majority of Brexit supporters and Trump supporters are decent folk, most of whom are simply concerned with "taking care of our own first," the stupid racists (sorry, that's redundant) are fellow travelers on these issues even if their motivations are far more sinister. Sadly, this means that some of them will be emboldened in their racist agenda. I hope it gets slapped down hard on both sides of the pond.
And yes, Pannonian, I am fully aware that you believe -- quite possibly correctly -- that those operating from a "take care of our own first" motivation are actually enacting a process that will take care of themselves less effectively than the current system.
I do get tired of the racist fringe groups being used (purposefully?) to tar the characterization of the Trump supporters (and apparently the pro brexiters as well).
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
One of the ironies about the Leave campaign is that one of the most effective scare stories was the spectre of Turkey joining the EU with subsequent freedom of movement into Britain (even though the UK has been the strongest advocate for Turkish membership throughout the years, and even though accession wouldn't be possible without all current members agreeing). We don't want these Muslims here, right? Now that we've realised that trade negotiations with the post-UK EU won't be as smooth as Brexiteers anticipated, we're scratching around for trade deals with whoever may be interested. One of the trumpeted proposed deals is with Turkey, which, of course, won't come without reciprocal freedom of movement.
Bloody myopic idiots.
And Blair has entered the arena. I wonder if pro-EU Labour supporters will automatically turn pro-hard Brexit simply to support Corbyn and oppose Blair. The comments on online newspaper articles indicate they will.
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