Military coup in Turkey

[Husar]

Reading about more and more people saying that it may have been orchestrated by Erdogan to emerge even stronger.
Tonight I still dismissed that as a silly conspiracy but somehow today I also wouldn't put it beyond him. I guess one may get clues by looking at how he proceeds now. The coup seems to have failed by now and some say it was badly planned. Erdogan called it a "present from god" that allows him to "clean the military" faster. Even if it wasn't staged, the fact that he won it may do even more terrible things to his ego.....

[Sarmatian]

I rarely support coups against elected officials but in Turkey's case, army is the protector of Ataturk's legacy.

This means Turkey will devolve into a full presidential dictatorship with strong islamist leanings.

[Husar]

There we go, the great Turkish reshuffling has already begun:

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-...ved-from-duty/

Broadcaster NTV, citing a decision by the High Council of Judges and Prosecutors, said 2,745 judges had been removed in total.

The Anadolu news agency reported that five members of Turkey's high judiciary board Hysk had also been removed.

Twitter is already big on the rumor side, have to say it does not seem so outlandish anymore. As I said, we'll see what he does when he wins...
https://twitter.com/search?q=reichstag%20fire&src=typd

[I of the Storm]

Pity. A military coup certainly isn't the best choice to change a government, but in Turkey's case it has always been a sure way to keep the country on (or lead back to) the kemalist path - which is something that should be in the center of Europe's interest when it comes to Turkey.
Reading the events in reverse, the fact that there has been a coup means Turkey is on the verge of leaving said path (or has already done so).

As far as the "staged coup" theories go - I wouldn't put it beyond him either.
The internet has already produced this:

[Greyblades]

The hell did the judges do to deserve dismissal?

[AE Bravo]

So much for that. I hope this prick didn't have 265 people die just to level up.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The hell did the judges do to deserve dismissal?

Probably refused bribes offered to give the coup-members death sentences.

[Fragony]

Rumour, American base surrounded by Turksh troops, power cut off. Could this have anything to do, if true, with the USA refusing to hand over Gülen to the neo-sultan? I thing the supermarketrolltoddler Erdogan would actually do that. That grey-wolf is a rabid dog full of resentment. What is happening in Turkey, it used to be the most beautifull girl in the class in the islamic hemisphere. Sometimes a Godwin is apropiate, won't make it but think it. Suffice to say that I think Erdogan is a really dangerous person.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Rumour, American base surrounded by Turksh troops, power cut off. Could this have anything to do, if true, with the USA refusing to hand over Gülen to the neo-sultan? I thing the supermarketrolltoddler Erdogan would actually do that. That grey-wolf is a rabid dog full of resentment. What is happening in Turkey, it used to be the most beautifull girl in the class in the islamic hemisphere. Sometimes a Godwin is apropiate, won't make it but think it. Suffice to say that I think Erdogan is a really dangerous person.

Gulen is in the US - not Turkey.

You're probably referring to the Incirlik air base, were Coalition Jets fly from - the base commander has been arrested.

This is clearly a purge - the number of top military commanders and judges arrested demonstrate that. The Commanders of the Second and Third Armies have been arrested, which is interesting given that the First Army was apparently the source of most of the rebels - it suggests the President is conducting a complete "deadheading" of the military.

[Fragony]

Gulen is in the US - not Turkey.

You're probably referring to the Incirlik air base, were Coalition Jets fly from - the base commander has been arrested.

This is clearly a purge - the number of top military commanders and judges arrested demonstrate that. The Commanders of the Second and Third Armies have been arrested, which is interesting given that the First Army was apparently the source of most of the rebels - it suggests the President is conducting a complete "deadheading" of the military.

I know that Gulen is in the US, Erdogan has a stick sharpened at two sides for him. It's time to really get worried bout Turkey imho. The Brussels is talking with tbe neo-sultan because about half of aan european-army would be turkish and free visum's on tops, what could go wrong

[Pannonian]

I know that Gulen is in the US, Erdogan has a stick sharpened at two sides for him. It's time to really get worried bout Turkey imho. The Brussels is talking with tbe neo-sultan because about half of aan european-army would be turkish and free visum's on tops, what could go wrong

What does a European army have to deal with that isn't already covered by NATO? A Turkey that has decided not to cooperate with NATO offers zero threat to NATO, especially if Russia decide to settle scores at the same time. The only problems would be diplomatic, but in extremis Europe can always shut down diplomatic channels completely, and Turkey has far more to lose from such a situation. Turkey only has leverage if Europe decide to continue to play nice. Once Europe decide that Turkey can go eff itself, then Turkey can go eff itself and Europe wouldn't even blink an eye.

[I of the Storm]

What does a European army have to deal with that isn't already covered by NATO? A Turkey that has decided not to cooperate with NATO offers zero threat to NATO, especially if Russia decide to settle scores at the same time. The only problems would be diplomatic, but in extremis Europe can always shut down diplomatic channels completely, and Turkey has far more to lose from such a situation. Turkey only has leverage if Europe decide to continue to play nice. Once Europe decide that Turkey can go eff itself, then Turkey can go eff itself and Europe wouldn't even blink an eye.

True, but then the refugee deal would be off too and that would mean that Greece and the Balkans would be even more effed up and the balkan route reopened which is something the EU wants to avoid, because that in turn would strenghten again the autocrats and populists in Hungary, Austria and the rest of Europe.
By supporting Erdogan they are buying some sorely needed stability in the core territories and sensitive regions. The price is high though.

[Pannonian]

True, but then the refugee deal would be off too and that would mean that Greece and the Balkans would be even more effed up and the balkan route reopened which is something the EU wants to avoid, because that in turn would strenghten again the autocrats and populists in Hungary, Austria and the rest of Europe.
By supporting Erdogan they are buying some sorely needed stability in the core territories and sensitive regions. The price is high though.

Up go the fences. There's no need for a refugee deal if no one is allowed to travel from Turkey to the EU. The Turks within the EU won't be happy to be cut off from their families, but the exit door is always open if they feel that strongly about it.

[I of the Storm]

Up go the fences. There's no need for a refugee deal if no one is allowed to travel from Turkey to the EU. The Turks within the EU won't be happy to be cut off from their families, but the exit door is always open if they feel that strongly about it.

That would be the pragmatic solution. But fencing the border in Greece and Bulgaria would mean the EU has to pay for Greece's and Bulgaria's cost (right now they only have to pay a fraction because Erdogan is supposed to do the dirty work) and it would bring the bleeding-heart-people crying about "no fences, you fascists!" back. Both not desireable. But eventually the EU will come to see that prolonged cooperation with Erdogan is becoming more and more impractical.

Edit: besides, fencing the borders would only strenghten the position of the extreme right. We have a problem with them as it is.

[Fragony]

What does a European army have to deal with that isn't already covered by NATO? A Turkey that has decided not to cooperate with NATO offers zero threat to NATO, especially if Russia decide to settle scores at the same time. The only problems would be diplomatic, but in extremis Europe can always shut down diplomatic channels completely, and Turkey has far more to lose from such a situation. Turkey only has leverage if Europe decide to continue to play nice. Once Europe decide that Turkey can go eff itself, then Turkey can go eff itself and Europe wouldn't even blink an eye.

Could you please say EU isnstead of Europe, Europe is just a continent. I see trouble, the EU wants an army and suddenly they are talking with Turkey again. Turkish army in our streets?

[Pannonian]

That would be the pragmatic solution. But fencing the border in Greece and Bulgaria would mean the EU has to pay for Greece's and Bulgaria's cost (right now they only have to pay a fraction because Erdogan is supposed to do the dirty work) and it would bring the bleeding-heart-people crying about "no fences, you fascists!" back. Both not desireable. But eventually the EU will come to see that prolonged cooperation with Erdogan is becoming more and more impractical.

Edit: besides, fencing the borders would only strenghten the position of the extreme right. We have a problem with them as it is.

It's only a problem if you feel ethically unable to cut off the problem at source because of some belief in universal rights. Germany currently has an army that is sizeable but lacking on the heavy side, as do most other non-Anglo-French armed forces. They'd be adequate for border patrols, based on the doctrine that there is a this side and a that side, and anything on that side isn't allowed to come over to this side. They have to be fed and watered anyway, and they're no good for anything else, nor do they want to be deployed anywhere hot.

[Pannonian]

Could you please say EU isnstead of Europe, Europe is just a continent. I see trouble, the EU wants an army and suddenly they are talking with Turkey again. Turkish army in our streets?

Britain has some say in NATO, particularly the European component of NATO. Britain has no say in the EU. Not after we followed your wonderful advice.

[I of the Storm]

It's only a problem if you feel ethically unable to cut off the problem at source because of some belief in universal rights. Germany currently has an army that is sizeable but lacking on the heavy side, as do most other non-Anglo-French armed forces. They'd be adequate for border patrols, based on the doctrine that there is a this side and a that side, and anything on that side isn't allowed to come over to this side. They have to be fed and watered anyway, and they're no good for anything else, nor do they want to be deployed anywhere hot.

Let's not talk about the Bundeswehr, it's a rather embarassing subject.

Besides, a lot of legal obstacles to employ them domestically. Not good for much atm.

[Pannonian]

Let's not talk about the Bundeswehr, it's a rather embarassing subject.

Besides, a lot of legal obstacles to employ them domestically. Not good for much atm.

Can't you re-employ ostie veterans? Surely they have plenty of experience in keeping a border closed.

[Fragony]

Britain has some say in NATO, particularly the European component of NATO. Britain has no say in the EU. Not after we followed your wonderful advice.

Yeah and the EU just lost their most competent army, of couurse it's all a coincence that they are courting Turkey, the EU has only one priority and that is the EU.

[I of the Storm]

Can't you re-employ ostie veterans? Surely they have plenty of experience in keeping a border closed.

Haha, they certainly do. But they are pretty old by now. In their 50's at least. The "good and efficient" ones are convicted and barred from service anyway.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Up go the fences. There's no need for a refugee deal if no one is allowed to travel from Turkey to the EU. The Turks within the EU won't be happy to be cut off from their families, but the exit door is always open if they feel that strongly about it.

So what you're saying is that we should build a wall on Europe's Southern border to keep the economically and socially undesirable out.

Errr...

You've been hammering Greyblades in the UK Referendum thread for saying basically that.

Anyway, I think what Frag is saying is that Turkey would provide about half of a theoretical EU army (because their military is actually funded) and this would mean the EU could have a big army without good French or German boys having to sign up and do work. Of course, with the UK leaving an EU army is more likely.

[Greyblades]

Edit: besides, fencing the borders would only strenghten the position of the extreme right. We have a problem with them as it is.

Actually I think it would weaken the far right as it would steal thier primary selling point out from under them, in a similar way to how the Conservatives stole UKIP's thunder by running on a referendum promise.

[I of the Storm]

Actually I think it would weaken the far right as it would steal thier primary selling point out from under them, in a similar way to how the Conservatives stole UKIP's thunder by running on a referendum promise.

Hm. Depends how you spin it. Might as well be giving them a boost, aka "didn't we tell you?". But the other way 'round is equally possible. Not sure on this point.

[Greyblades]

It's an observation that has been made to me by political commentators a few times: fringe movments only really gain ground when the centerist movements dont address a major problem.

Most people dont want to go to the fascists or the communists, but they will turn to them the longer the more safe/sane centerist parties show themselves incapable of solving a problem that negatively impacts thier lives.

The flood gates really open up when the centerist parties start being seen as not wanting to solve the problem.

[Husar]

Why would an EU army require Turkey?
Funding issues are far easier to deal with than having a despot in charge of (half) your army.
The German army needs more funding either way if it is meant to be capable of anything in the future.
The other thing they need to sort out is procurement, that the NH-90 lacks the necessary ground clearance to land on anything the doesn't resemble a big, flat concrete area for example is hardly a funding issue, it's pure incompetence... I'd also think that the beginning of an EU army would be somewhere between Germany, France and the Netherlands because the Bundeswehr currently cooperates with both of these already, one would think that the partial integration would just be expanded and then other nations are slowly added, unless we are talking about a completely seperate army in addition to the national ones. But who would fund the latter if noone is even willing to fund the national ones.

Would Turkey even cease control of its soldiers and equipment to an EU entity? Thery're very nationalistic after all...
Now France, Netherlands and Germany would be far more likely to attempt that, maybe Belgium and a few others like Italy, Austria and Spain, too. Even with Poland I'm not so sure, though maybe if it meant that suddenly a much stronger army defends their country against Russia.

[Fragony]

ohohoh the left was furious when mr Wilders called the neo-sultan a total freak, but his call to rat on 'Gülen supporters' didn't go unheard, not a good time to be a secular Turk in the Netherlands right now. Or everywhere really. The neo-sultan even threatens the US, not delivering Gülen is supposedly an act of war. The shitlist was supposedly prepared before the failed coup(?). Erdogan is a dangerous man, godwins are apropiate for change I think. Glad our Lefteyenine is heading to Belgium but he has to be careful there as well, especially if the childless mutti gets her way and Turkey gets unlimited visums to travel into Europe. Secular Turks and Kurds are rightfully scared.

[Gilrandir]

I'd also think that the beginning of an EU army would be somewhere between Germany, France and the Netherlands

Why would you need one? You have NATO to cater to such needs.

[Fragony]

Why would you need one? You have NATO to cater to such needs.

Why would the EU need one, better question. The EU is ultra-undemocratic they accept no dissent. They aren't going to station Dutch troops in the Netherlands, no French in France, no Germans in Germany

[Husar]

Why would you need one? You have NATO to cater to such needs.

First of all, I think it was Fragony who brought it up, I don't have access to his secret insider sources that are always right, so I can't know that.
Secondly, I would think because NATO is not always taken so seriously and there are fears that some countries may ignore a call to arms by NATO. Whether the NATO command structure works as well as that of a completely integrated single army would then be another question, but I can't answer it because I'm not sure how NATO works exactly. For example, are all NATO soldiers required to speak a common language or could there be cases where one doesn't understand what the superior wants from him over the radio? And despite all the fuss about NATO, most of its members don't even stick to the rules, especially the one where they should spend 2% of their GDP on defense...

A lot of people say that NATO is just a bunch of countries waiting for the US to come and rescue them, the EU army would seem like an effort of Europe to take its defense into its own hands. With pooled resources and standardized equipment it might even be more efficient than each country having its own army with lots of redundancy between them and smaller order numbers from the manufacturers because they all want different equipment (Eurofighter etc. being the obvious efforts to change that, which are going on already). Economies of scale might be a factor.