French Presidential Election

[Tristuskhan]

Some of you may ignore the tradition of impunity for the Police, here in France, which is a major and legitimate (in my eyes) cause of rioting. Police hierarchy is currently trying hard to have the charge reverted to simple police brutality from the rape charge chosed by the Justice (a charge that is not so easily forgotten).

The cops have, at least, stopped saying the boy impalled himself voluntarily on the truncheon or that the whole affair was just fully accidental (the boy slipped on the floor and came to rest with 10cms of the thing in his bottom, what? that happens!). Such attitudes alone is well enough to create a minor surge of violence in the banlieues.

Police in France has never been renowned for it's subtlety but recruitments those last years was done at an appalingly low level. Many speak and behave with any citizen like the scum they are supposed to confront.

Edit: hell no, they keep on saying it was an accident. Some never learn.

[Greyblades]

Despite the reported damage this doesn't seem to be making the BBC website. That smells a bit fishy.

The BBC has a habit of going 2/3 guardian when it comes to minority matters.

[Brenus]

"Police in France has never been renowned for it's subtlety but recruitments those last years was done at an appalingly low level. Many speak and behave with any citizen like the scum they are supposed to confront." Agree. The destruction of all aspect of the Service Public (from Post to Police de proximité) by Sarkolland and the systematic destruction of all the tool of creation of citizenship on the name of money didn't improve the situation...

[Tristuskhan]

"Police in France has never been renowned for it's subtlety but recruitments those last years was done at an appalingly low level. Many speak and behave with any citizen like the scum they are supposed to confront." Agree. The destruction of all aspect of the Service Public (from Post to Police de proximité) by Sarkolland and the systematic destruction of all the tool of creation of citizenship on the name of money didn't improve the situation...

Take a very good ship, get rid of half the strokers, put twelve captains and two admirals in charge.
Blame the few remaining strokers cos' the ship does not run anymore. I live with that at the ONF (National Forest Office), full of useless managerial clones with absolute despise of the Art.

[Montmorency]

Advertisement for French Revolution game on the Org.

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...sign-up-thread

[Beskar]

Apparently Le Pen is now favourite to win...

So, Geert Wilders for the Netherlands next? Fragony will be happy.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

What are the London betting shops giving for odds in this?

[Greyblades]

Paddy power says Le pen is 2/1.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Paddy power says Le pen is 2/1.

Thanks.

It also shows Fillon at 9-4, so that doesn't seem like a "done deal" yet

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Oh look: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ided-by-police

Le Pen's headquarters raided by Police - well that'll likely improve her odds further.

Now she can claim she's being harassed as well.

Idiots.

[Brenus]

"Le Pen's headquarters raided by Police - well that'll likely improve her odds further.
Now she can claim she's being harassed as well.
Idiots."
So you think that the fact she stole money should be ignored for political reason? She is under investigation...
And her claiming to be harassed is not new, her father used the same technic.
About polls, French journalists infecting foreign journalists. Don't believe them. The result is within the ones who never vote, not on the ones who always vote.

[Tristuskhan]

Apparently Le Pen is now favourite to win...

Where did you read that? She'll likely rank first on 1st round but shall lose on 2nd round, whoever she'll be facing.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

"Le Pen's headquarters raided by Police - well that'll likely improve her odds further.
Now she can claim she's being harassed as well.
Idiots."
So you think that the fact she stole money should be ignored for political reason? She is under investigation...
And her claiming to be harassed is not new, her father used the same technic.
About polls, French journalists infecting foreign journalists. Don't believe them. The result is within the ones who never vote, not on the ones who always vote.

No, I think that raiding her headquarters shortly before the election was a political stunt that will backfire.

Where did you read that? She'll likely rank first on 1st round but shall lose on 2nd round, whoever she'll be facing.

The assumption is that there will be a second round. It is possible, though uncommon, for a candidate to win in the first round. So it comes down to electoral habits.

Specifically - how many people unenthused by the two "mainstream" candidates in contention will assume Le Pen won't win in the first round? If Le Pen can mobilise all her supporters in the first round and the other candidates under-perform due to apathy she could win outright. Assuming she doesn't win outright you still have to account for the recent skew in polling suggesting Le Pen's support might be under-represented.

[Gilrandir]

What are the London betting shops giving for odds in this?

Paddy power says Le pen is 2/1.

I wonder what were the odds on Brexit and Trump.

[Greyblades]

3-1, either the bookies have cottoned on to the trends of the time or le pen is about to lose the hat-trick.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

... About polls, French journalists infecting foreign journalists. Don't believe them. The result is within the ones who never vote, not on the ones who always vote.

That's why I was interested in the guesstimates of the London betting houses -- polls are not always as accurate as they claim [not that the math doesn't work out; the problems are usually with question phrasing and or sample selection].

[Brenus]

"Specifically - how many people unenthused by the two "mainstream" candidates in contention will assume Le Pen won't win in the first round? If Le Pen can mobilise all her supporters in the first round and the other candidates under-perform due to apathy she could win outright. Assuming she doesn't win outright you still have to account for the recent skew in polling suggesting Le Pen's support might be under-represented." Unlikely. We have roughly 4 or 5 potential 2nd turner. Fillon (Conservative) who is having hard time because paying his family on Taxes payers money... Macron, the air balloon full of helium, favourite and champion of the media. He made a political suicide last week about French Colonisation and Crime against Humanity. Hamon, coming from the actual government, hardly socialist, having no programme but a balance sheet near to bankruptcy statement... Le Pen of course, no programme, but banking on the successive failures of previous government to deliver jobs, and blaming the foreigners... Having problem with taxes, but her base doesn't care. Jean Luc Mélenchon, leftist, against austerity, regain the flag and the symbol of the Republic from the Extreme Right. Born in Morocco, from Spanish ascendant... Black sheep for the media, and the only danger for the upper-class.
They are all around 13-15%.
All will be decided by the 60 % who didn't go to vote the last elections, tired to be betrayed by politicians...
The moods in France is the "great sweep", the "dégagisme", Fillon being the last victim of it. Le Pen can count on her basis, but figures show she didn't increase her base, it is the abstentionist as I who will make the difference if we decide to go to vote. We usually do when Le Pen is on. As Tristuskhan said, 25 % or even 30% is nothing if 75 or 70% vote against.
She was 3rd at the last election, and got 2 Representatives at the National Assembly...

[Tristuskhan]

We have roughly 4 or 5 potential 2nd turner. Fillon (Conservative) who is having hard time because paying his family on Taxes payers money... Macron, the air balloon full of helium, favourite and champion of the media. He made a political suicide last week about French Colonisation and Crime against Humanity. Hamon, coming from the actual government, hardly socialist, having no programme but a balance sheet near to bankruptcy statement... Le Pen of course, no programme, but banking on the successive failures of previous government to deliver jobs, and blaming the foreigners... Having problem with taxes, but her base doesn't care. Jean Luc Mélenchon, leftist, against austerity, regain the flag and the symbol of the Republic from the Extreme Right. Born in Morocco, from Spanish ascendant... Black sheep for the media, and the only danger for the upper-class.
They are all around 13-15%.

We'll know this afternoon if we can add Bayrou to the list. Someone educated, at least, but with a whole buch of incompetent friends (actual and potential: treason is coming among the smoothly conservatives).

And the thing about Airship Macron crashing on colonial memories: too bad. What does he think, that everyone has a good knowledge of colonial history? The conquest of Algeria was a huge series of crimes against humanity (awful... but few, few really know about it, In France and in Algeria too) but puting all this stuff on the political scene is pure foolishness.

[Gilrandir]

3-1, either the bookies have cottoned on to the trends of the time or le pen is about to lose the hat-trick.

I'm not good at gambling business. Does it mean that bookmakers "predicted" Trump's victory and Brexit? If it does, it would be a good idea to replace polling services with bookmakers.

[Greyblades]

Eh, it means they didnt think it was as unlikely as the polls but a 3-1 odds isnt what you give to what you think is a dead certain.

They thought the risk of victory was low enough to justify offering 3 for every 1 pound people bet on trump winning. The equivalent of a 25-33% prediction, whereas le pen is more 33-50%

[Tristuskhan]

Alas the last true oracle is dead:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus

I mean, London bookmakers? Why not ask the Guild of Togolese Sorcerers instead?

[Greyblades]

Why not, they have unwittingly become more reliable than the majority of american pollsters after all.

[Brenus]

"The conquest of Algeria was a huge series of crimes against humanity (awful... but few, few really know about it, In France and in Algeria too) but putting all this stuff on the political scene is pure foolishness." Hmmm, I am not sure. "Les colonnes sanglantes" in Senegal and even the conquest of Algeria were brutal and bloody. Might qualify as war crimes, but as it was not a policy, these were not genocides. A genocide is a notion invented in 1945 to named the impossible to name, the industrial scale and planning of the final solution. To equal the "colonised" to the "genocided" is stupid.
The problem, imo, is every one wants to be victim of a genocide, and some were.
More stupid from him was the "je vous ai compris"... Every French knowing a bit of his history just cringed at this... The biggest ever betrayal in recent history... Necessary, but still...

[Brenus]

"[B]
More stupid from him was the "je vous ai compris"... Every French knowing a bit of his history just cringed at this... The biggest ever betrayal in recent history...

Err, excepted perhaps the refusal to implement the NO vote to the European Constitution...

[Tristuskhan]

"The conquest of Algeria was a huge series of crimes against humanity (awful... but few, few really know about it, In France and in Algeria too) but putting all this stuff on the political scene is pure foolishness." Hmmm, I am not sure. "Les colonnes sanglantes" in Senegal and even the conquest of Algeria were brutal and bloody. Might qualify as war crimes, but as it was not a policy, these were not genocides. A genocide is a notion invented in 1945 to named the impossible to name, the industrial scale and planning of the final solution. To equal the "colonised" to the "genocided" is stupid.
The problem, imo, is every one wants to be victim of a genocide, and some were.
More stupid from him was the "je vous ai compris"... Every French knowing a bit of his history just cringed at this... The biggest ever betrayal in recent history... Necessary, but still...

Genocide? Who said that? Macron?

The first military reports about deep Algeria noted a school in every village and a quite high litteracy rate among adult males (not so different from the litteracy rates in western europe at that time). One of the first policies applied by the Kingdom of France was to have the schools closed. Nasty.
But I never heard anyone talking about genocide.

[Fragony]

Apparently Le Pen is now favourite to win...

So, Geert Wilders for the Netherlands next? Fragony will be happy.

No I'm not.

Figured I kinda missed you lot too much so I'm in again

[Brenus]

"Genocide? Who said that? Macron?" Might be wrong but "Crimes against Humanity" was coined to describe in Judicial Term the Extermination campaign of the entire Jews (and Tziganes) communities, so a genocide.

"The first military reports about deep Algeria noted a school in every village and a quite high litteracy rate among adult males" This is interesting: Do you have a reference for this (book not internet)?

[Gilrandir]

No I'm not.

Figured I kinda missed you lot too much so I'm in again

Err, excepted perhaps the refusal to implement the NO vote to the European Constitution...

First the UK exited the EU, then Trump won elections in America. Now Fragony is back and Brenus learnt to use the Reply button. Where is the world going? What's next? Putin will stop being a fascist?

"Genocide? Who said that? Macron?" Might be wrong but "Crimes against Humanity" was coined to describe in Judicial Term the Extermination campaign of the entire Jews (and Tziganes) communities, so a genocide.

"The first military reports about deep Algeria noted a school in every village and a quite high litteracy rate among adult males" This is interesting: Do you have a reference for this (book not internet)?

Oh, thank God. I was too hasty. Some things do remain the same.

[Tristuskhan]

"Genocide? Who said that? Macron?" Might be wrong but "Crimes against Humanity" was coined to describe in Judicial Term the Extermination campaign of the entire Jews (and Tziganes) communities, so a genocide.

And what? Since the term was not coined at that times, does it mean there was no Armenian or Herero genocide?

We can debate about the quasi-genocidal aspects of french conquest of Algeria, but it's a matter for historians, not a topic to be thrown on today's french electoral arena. Uselessly poisonous in the sad ignorance everyone likes to keep on that issue.

"The first military reports about deep Algeria noted a school in every village and a quite high litteracy rate among adult males" This is interesting: Do you have a reference for this (book not internet)?

Benjamin Stora ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Stora ) on France Culture one year ago, can't say better. I trust the man enough on the matter. May be able to find about it in my collection of the review "L'Histoire". But it spans 15 years.

[Beskar]

No I'm not.

Figured I kinda missed you lot too much so I'm in again

I thought you was a Geert Wilders fan, my mistake then.

Welcome back.