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Thread: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

  1. #61

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    The South, having suffered so much would at the very least want to push the DMZ 100 miles further North to protect themselves - and as before why stop there? Would China just hope that they establish a smaller North Korea under UN oversight or would they preemptively secure this themselves just as the Russians did?
    It comes down to who reaches Pyongyang first. China can't get infantry to the DMZ within a day obviously, and the South Koreans will be crossing in force with their American allies. The circumstances of the outbreak of war, and who occupies what by the cessation of Northern resistance, will determine the terms of reunification or joint governance.

    China can't really hope to grab the whole thing for itself, which is why kicking the can continues to be the best option. The best case for China is Chinese-militarized Changbai Mts, and US troops leaving the peninsula within 5/10 years.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-17-2017 at 15:21.
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  2. #62
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    I think you are all underestimating North Korean army and resilience of the civilian population.

    The civilian population of North Korea is used to food shortages and the primary purpose of civilian society is to support the army. Even though eventual winner is not in doubt (bar direct Chinese intervention), it wouldn't be easy or fast, and I wouldn't be so certain that NK wouldn't be pushing over DMZ first.

    China's primary concern is keeping the buffer zone between China and American bases in Korea. They did try to push for a deal with USA, in which North Korea stops developing nukes and ICBM's in return for a gradual withdrawal of US troops from South Korea but Americans refused.

  3. #63

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    The civilian population of North Korea is used to food shortages and the primary purpose of civilian society is to support the army. Even though eventual winner is not in doubt (bar direct Chinese intervention), it wouldn't be easy or fast, and I wouldn't be so certain that NK wouldn't be pushing over DMZ first.
    Well, unless the North Korean leadership decides to roll over before the fighting starts then strategically they would have to begin by storming the border with ground forces. I'm not sure there is reason to believe the offensive wouldn't collapse quickly, in which case there would be relatively-little resistance for Allied troops in enemy country other than the fastnesses.

    In fact, one approach in Chinese interests would be to have North Korea attack pre-emptively and with little warning (i.e. prior to publicized American buildup) , which would be the most disruptive to the Allied efforts before the machine can get going, and would allow China the most time to occupy the North. On the other hand, such naked aggression from the North would put the Allies in the best diplomatic, though not military, position to take a maximalist stance on Korean sovereignty, and it would lead to US-Chinese tensions beating anything since the 1950s. Also, it would bring the worst favor for North Korean government officials should they ever be caught for international trial.

    Civilian resistance - maybe, but to what extent? These aren't fanatics, even if they haven't been bombed to dust before the enemy appears.
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  4. #64
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    I'm having trouble believing that a state that has a military first policy, to an extent of starving its own citizens if need be, a state that is 100% focused on the conflict we're talking about is just going to roll over and die quickly in the even of that conflict.

    They've spent more than half a century preparing for it. They will put up a huge fight.

  5. #65

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    The people will before the state.

    Why do you think they will resist? If you think of touted Japanese civilian readiness, that (sentiment at least) was borne on the back of a healthy imperial economy and largely successful military ventures abroad, over two generations. North Korea doesn't have that experience. The fear and hatred without the success and power. More likely that once the armed forces are in rout, not causing anyone any trouble will be a more common priority than Operation Werewolf.
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  6. #66
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    I agree that the populace probably has a very limited "will to combat," though the long propaganda preparation and limited foodstuffs -- which is a classic way to cow the populace -- probably means that the NK populace would do little or nothing to aid an aggressor against their own government. They would all emulate the turtle and hunker down and wait it out.

    Nor is it likely that the NK army would collapse quickly. The terrain of NK in general features lots of mountains/hilly areas that they have had a half century to stock with defensive positions, emergency magazines etc. Projecting a quick collapse is overly optimistic at best barring a profligate use of tactical nuclear weapons. NK favors defense in terms of terrain.

    Add in the fact that China has a propensity to counterpunch armed forces that are trending towards its border and you are upping the difficulty further. Heck, even if you beat the odds and GOT China to agree to temporarily ignore events south of the Yalu while NK was clobbered they would NOT cope with the use of nuclear devices that close to their border -- so there is no quick option to toppling NK.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  7. #67

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    When we say quick victory, we mean in the field. Holdouts in bunkers have limited ability, decreasing over time, to project over surrounding territory. This only works in the advantage of the Allies, since it justifies and permits a solidified military occupation in the face of the Chinese response. When time is on our side, there is no need to resort to nuclear weapons - or, as the alternative may be, fuel-air bombs.
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  8. #68
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    I'm not talking about population (but I will come back to that) but the 6,000,000 people in the army. 6 million people strong army that spent the last 70 years figuring out how to inflict maximum to damage to SK and US troops. For reference, Soviet had about 6 million men in the western theater in 1945. Even if they were equipped to WW2 standards, that's still 6 million men, with enough reserves to operate at peak efficiency for several months. Every person in that army has had 5-10 years of military training. They're dangerous with sharp sticks, not to mention modernized AK copies. Again, for reference, Iraqi army in 2003 had barely half a million men. And it's not gonna be mostly desert. Most importantly, they won't underestimate "decadent westerners".

    Now, the civilian population. All had also 5-10 years of military training, including women. While some parallels could be drawn with WW2 Japan, most obviously that the Dear Leader is for all intents and purposes a god Emperor, there are many more differences.

    1) Japanese population was told that it was Japan's destiny to rule Asia and that Europeans and Americans were decadent people who wouldn't be able to stand the might of Japanese. They never expected a defensive war, which it had become already in 1942. NK civilian population is expecting and preparing for a long defensive war if need be.

    2) Also, the very fact that Home Islands were under threat made people question the narrative. They felt they were lied to and doubts started to appear. In case of North Korea, they aren't believing they're gonna walk into Washington and dictate terms, they're preparing to beat SK and US troops or inflict maximum casualties if they fail.

    3) Japanese morale was slowly dwindling as casualties started increasing and supplies became scarcer and scarcer. North Koreans are expecting high casualties and scarcity. It wouldn't be the first time the population felt a lack of food.

    4) Japanese morale didn't collapse instantly. It took 3 years of heavy bombing, that only got stronger with each passing day.

    5) Standards are different today - you can't just bomb civilians centers into submission without mass international outcry. You can't drop napalm on Pyongyang and kill 100,000 civilians to sap their will to fight.

    This won't be Iraq, if it happens. It will probably resemble Vietnam.
    Last edited by Sarmatian; 04-17-2017 at 22:48.

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  9. #69
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
    I'm not talking about population (but I will come back to that) but the 6,000,000 people in the army. 6 million people strong army that spent the last 70 years figuring out how to inflict maximum to damage to SK and US troops. For reference, Soviet had about 6 million men in the western theater in 1945. Even if they were equipped to WW2 standards, that's still 6 million men, with enough reserves to operate at peak efficiency for several months. Every person in that army has had 5-10 years of military training. They're dangerous with sharp sticks, not to mention modernized AK copies. Again, for reference, Iraqi army in 2003 had barely half a million men. And it's not gonna be mostly desert. Most importantly, they won't underestimate "decadent westerners".

    Now, the civilian population. All had also 5-10 years of military training, including women. While some parallels could be drawn with WW2 Japan, most obviously that the Dear Leader is for all intents and purposes a god Emperor, there are many more differences.

    1) Japanese population was told that it was Japan's destiny to rule Asia and that Europeans and Americans were decadent people who wouldn't be able to stand the might of Japanese. They never expected a defensive war, which it had become already in 1942. NK civilian population is expecting and preparing for a long defensive war if need be.

    2) Also, the very fact that Home Islands were under threat made people question the narrative. They felt they were lied to and doubts started to appear. In case of North Korea, they aren't believing they're gonna walk into Washington and dictate terms, they're preparing to beat SK and US troops or inflict maximum casualties if they fail.

    3) Japanese morale was slowly dwindling as casualties started increasing and supplies became scarcer and scarcer. North Koreans are expecting high casualties and scarcity. It wouldn't be the first time the population felt a lack of food.

    4) Japanese morale didn't collapse instantly. It took 3 years of heavy bombing, that only got stronger with each passing day.

    5) Standards are different today - you can't just bomb civilians centers into submission without mass international outcry. You can't drop napalm on Pyongyang and kill 100,000 civilians to sap their will to fight.

    This won't be Iraq, if it happens. It will probably resemble Vietnam.

    Somewhere between the two would be my estimate.

    The NK civilian population has too many elements that are functionally coerced into support of the government. On the other hand, if invaded there is always some tendency to resist the invaders and the local rule enforcers will still be plying their trade. Thus my estimate is that they would do as told until their area was captured, but that civil resistance would be limited once those enforcers could no longer force compliance. Thinking that the invading troops would be treated as liberators is silly. On the other hand, Vietnam had the vestiges of colonial exploitation to play upon, as well as rampant corruption in the SV government. SK has corruption problems, but actually takes some action against them. NK may not be able to generate guerilla efforts on a VC-like level.

    The NK army is numerous, decently equipped, and not without training. Combine that with NK's terrain and you are looking at a formidable defense. They are very likely professional enough to use their fixed defenses as positions from which to launch 'spoiling' strikes or counterattacks. While they have a degree of control over any area, they will also command the support of the local populace, allowing logistics efforts to continue even if facing SK/USA air superiority. Certainly not unbeatable, but it would take time, treasure, and thousands of lives to effect a victory there.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  10. #70

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    The Vietnamese had been actively fighting guerrilla and large-scale war for a full generation, and went in against America at the peak of their fighting and financial strength. The Vietcong, moreover, had North Vietnam for supply and reinforcement. North Korea has little depth, little help, and less time.

    Where we disagree, Sarmatian, is on the point that pure time and focus will translate into effectiveness and will, and then into organized resistance in the absence of bureaucracy.
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  11. #71
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    What if it isn't you bringing the fight to them, but they go all Normandy on you, the US has no answer to that, most troops will make it and than what. Unlike North-Korea the US has a wealth of easy accesable beaches, and NK has enough men and firepower to really dig in. That scenario has been simulated multiple times and the US eventually wins every time, but it's not pretty. I tried to find the link but couldn't find it sorry for that but it's not so hard to imagine that it would be a major problem taking a lot of time. If I remember right it's expected that about 60% of the clone-army will make it to the shores, how fast the US can respond I can't recall but it takes a while but the US is wide-open in every simulation. As teh Serb said (or at least hinted at) NK expects to have massive losses, they won't care about massive losses. What can you do, you can't intimidate with bombing urban centres anymore that's so WW2
    Last edited by Fragony; 04-18-2017 at 09:16.

  12. #72

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    I tried to find the link but couldn't find it sorry for that but it's not so hard to imagine that it would be a major problem taking a lot of time. If I remember right it's expected that about 60% of the clone-army will make it to the shores,
    On seacraft? How would they even make it past Japan?

    Better off trying to infiltrate Latin America with cartel aid and hop the border wall into Texas.
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  13. #73
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    The one thing I keep wondering about is how he can have studied for years in Switzerland and then go back and think his country is fine. Even from an egoistical point of view he is the ruler of a polished mud hole to some extent.
    Who cares what you rule as long as you are a RULER.

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    It comes down to who reaches Pyongyang first. China can't get infantry to the DMZ within a day obviously, and the South Koreans will be crossing in force with their American allies.
    In all talk about racing towards DMZ/Pyongyang you forget about airborne/seaborne opearations. Any side (I mean either China or US/SK) may land its troops anywhere where such landings can be performed. Of course it is a question how long those expeditional troops will have to/will be able to hold out until reinforcements arrive.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
    I'm having trouble believing that a state that has a military first policy, to an extent of starving its own citizens if need be, a state that is 100% focused on the conflict we're talking about is just going to roll over and die quickly in the even of that conflict.

    They've spent more than half a century preparing for it. They will put up a huge fight.
    I read an article of a guy who lived in Vladivostok and there he often encountered NK workers brought to toil it on Russian factories and plants. This guy says that in any conflict if their opponents showed enough gut Koreans were likely to leg it after initial 3-5 minutes of a fight even if they were numerically superior. So he assumes they won't put up any serious resistance if a war were to start. Perhaps the example isn't symptomatic, but the morale of North Koreans may be questionable if they realize there is nothing/nobody to fight for.
    Last edited by Gilrandir; 04-18-2017 at 11:11.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  14. #74
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    On seacraft? How would they even make it past Japan?

    Better off trying to infiltrate Latin America with cartel aid and hop the border wall into Texas.
    Not my simulation I don't know how, do know that's it a scenario that is taken serious, it's like shooting 10 rockets of which only one is actually dangerous I guess, that principle. Expected in simulations is that a lot of ships will never make it but a majority will, but would you honestly be surprised if that would be an affordable risk if it really comes to war with a country like NK, they don't give a shit about their people. The US expected Normandy to be much worse than it really was in the end, and the US actually does give a shit about it's people. If defence-experts are worried about that particular scenario than we should assume that they take it seriously

  15. #75

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    The one thing I keep wondering about is how he can have studied for years in Switzerland and then go back and think his country is fine. Even from an egoistical point of view he is the ruler of a polished mud hole to some extent.
    There's a Japanese cook who worked for the current North Korean leader's father. This cook had a good relationship with the son and sometimes he was his babysitter. The cook wrote in his book that the son asked him if North Korea was poor. This was when the son went back to North Korea during a vacation from the Swiss university. The son looked very concerned. He didn't see the poverty level of the North Koreans outside Pyongyang when he was a kid. This made the cook think that the son might try to improve the living standards of the North Koreans. However, the cook also said that his first impression of the son when he was younger wasn't good. The son just glared at the cook when he was introduced to him for the first time. The cook's books about North Korea was published in Japan and South Korea.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenji_Fujimoto

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    It comes down to who reaches Pyongyang first. China can't get infantry to the DMZ within a day obviously, and the South Koreans will be crossing in force with their American allies. The circumstances of the outbreak of war, and who occupies what by the cessation of Northern resistance, will determine the terms of reunification or joint governance.

    China can't really hope to grab the whole thing for itself, which is why kicking the can continues to be the best option. The best case for China is Chinese-militarized Changbai Mts, and US troops leaving the peninsula within 5/10 years.
    Also, China at this moment didn't deploy enough soldiers at the border to reach Pyongyang. I think the current deployment is mainly defensive. The South Koreans and the Americans will have a hard time trying to get to Pyongyang also because more of North Korea's army is deployed near the DMZ than near the Chinese border. And the South Koreans and the Americans would be the ones doing the defending before they could advance to Pyongyang. The North Korean military outnumbers both the South Korean and the American ones in Korea altogether. It would take some time for the American reinforcements from outside Korea to arrive. And take into account that the DMZ has the most mines in the world.
    Last edited by Shaka_Khan; 04-18-2017 at 11:47.
    Wooooo!!!

  16. #76
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Read the wiki but that doesn't sound any different from the usual kid with autism or asperger, says nothing to me really. Just personal memoires (likely with $$$$ in mind)
    Last edited by Fragony; 04-18-2017 at 12:03.

  17. #77

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    (likely with $$$$ in mind)
    You're not alone on that. Many people have said the same about him. However, he did provide a lot of valuable information about the dark side of the Kim family. This was at a time when very little was known about them. This dark side is Kim Jong-un's weak spot in his rule over the North Koreans. Only the South Koreans had hints from the high ranking North Koreans who defected. Knowing the psychology of Kim Jong-un (no matter how irrational) gives the other side an advantage.
    Last edited by Shaka_Khan; 04-19-2017 at 05:30.
    Wooooo!!!

  18. #78
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    The decadence is certainly striking considering how poor the North-Koreans are, going to get that book, nice to have an insiders view no matter his motivations
    Last edited by Fragony; 04-19-2017 at 06:07.

  19. #79

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Shane talks about his Vice documentary on the North Korean slaves in Siberia. He also talks about the parts that are not in the documentary.

    Wooooo!!!

  20. #80

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Here's the documentary:





    Wooooo!!!

  21. #81

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?


    Wooooo!!!

  22. #82
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Only had the stomach to watch the first but I promise I'll watch them all. Unreal that they don't even know they are not in North-Korea. They can't be that dumb -1

    edit, watched all, I insist others do as well. Totally new for me at least

    Thx for sharing SK that was really interesting
    Last edited by Fragony; 04-20-2017 at 19:10.

  23. #83

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Re: Vice Documentary

    "Peculiarities of the National Hunt"
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  24. #84

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Vice went to North Korea in these videos:



    Wooooo!!!

  25. #85
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Seen them before, but let's assume that nobody acts irrationaly just for the heck of it and that they know exactly what they are doing, and know exactly what they would lose, and have already accepted that. If so that's scary. And not irrational at all, that makes it even worse
    Last edited by Fragony; 04-27-2017 at 10:36.

  26. #86
    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    N Korea claims CIA plot to kill Kim Jong-un
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39815561
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  27. #87
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    N Korea claims CIA plot to kill Kim Jong-un
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39815561
    Probably a Baptist mission trip. Pretty sure KJU can take 'em down.
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  28. #88
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Kinda funny, North-Korea is now also threatening China with 'serious consequences', wtf do they think they can do against China, messing with China is going to be quik easy and painless. Well maybe not painless but you get it

  29. #89

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/w...rump.html?_r=0

    Moon and Ahn are the main candidates, both have somewhat of an equal shot at winning. Conservatives at a big disadvantage because of the Park Geun-hye scandal.

    Thought this was pretty interesting as well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy4oFVuNPkg

    SK really dances to its own tune.

  30. #90

    Default Re: Is North Korea's Leader losing it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Showtime View Post
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/w...rump.html?_r=0

    Moon and Ahn are the main candidates, both have somewhat of an equal shot at winning. Conservatives at a big disadvantage because of the Park Geun-hye scandal.


    I get the feeling that the relationship between South Korea and the United States might sour down compared to now if Moon becomes the president. Moon and Trump have interests that contradict each other when it comes to North Korea.

    Quote Originally Posted by Showtime View Post
    Thought this was pretty interesting as well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy4oFVuNPkg

    SK really dances to its own tune.
    I wouldn't trust a news media fully. I've been to a lot of countries. I know of a lot of OECD cities that are more dangerous than the entire country of South Korea.




    Last edited by Shaka_Khan; 05-06-2017 at 04:40.
    Wooooo!!!

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