So...Scenario 2. Nothing but the single market
The EU gives up on trying to resolve divisive issues such as "migration, security or defence" and co-operation on key issues becomes more bilateral than EU based. Radically, the EU also shrinks the regulatory burden by dropping two pieces of legislation for every one it passes.
By 2025 this will mean the functioning of the Single Market becomes the "raison d'etre" of the EU, strengthening the free movement of goods and capital, but making it tougher in other areas, like free movement of people.
Pros and cons: The EU's "re-centred priorities" focusing on the core single market issue, makes decision-making "simpler" but it also restricts the ability of the EU to deliver to its citizens. "This may widen the gap between expectations and delivery at all levels."
The has the UK preparing to leave has actually triggered a real discussion of change?