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Thread: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

  1. #31
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    I would vote that we close this thread and move efforts to the exit thread.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  2. #32
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    The UK is not threatening war - the UK is merely making it clear that it will not compromise on Gibraltar and sell its people out, even in the face of military action. It shouldn't need to be said, it should be taken as read, but better to say it now than in 18 months time.
    agreed.

    many feel the falklands conflict was at its heart a failure of communication; in that our gov't by both military commitment/capability and diplomatic prevarication lead Argentina to [believe] that taking the falklands was a gamble it could win.

    they could not win that gamble, as history proved, but the failure was ours in letting them believe in that foolish possibility.

    let there be no such miscommunication in future, eh. ;)
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  3. #33
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    Here is one issue, that have not yet gained much attention:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-weber-brexit

    It would seem that EU is not going to leave Euro Clearing to London after Brexit, which is going to hit the British financial sector pretty hard. Maybe it will move to Amsterdam, interesting to see what Frag´s says if it does.
    the EU wants the euro to become a reserve currency, but doesn't want it to be traded 'overseas'...

    i don't buy it!
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  4. #34
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    what do i think:

    1. We'll make permanent the status of EU migrants in respective countries.
    > Something equivalent to an automatic declaration of permanent residency for eu citizens who've been in-country for more than five years.
    > The automatic right to stay in-country and achieve the five year permanent residency under the old regime if you arrived prior to Art50.
    > The qualified right to achieve five year permanent residency under the stricter non-eu regime as per the RoW if you arrived after Art50.

    2. The Brexit bill will end up being counted in the single figure billions once debts and assets are divvied up.
    > I doubt there will even be a payment for the balance as such, it will simply be massaged into long term transfers and interest payments.
    > We'll not pull out our 'investment' in the EIB.
    > We'll pay our dues, because that is what we do. Simply that the dues agreed won't be as apocalyptic as some imagine.

    3. The EU:Ukraine DCFTA will be the template upon which the free-trade agreement is built.
    > It is purpose designed for an 'association' state, not an accession state. Which is exactly what we'll be.
    > The Services section (chapter 6) will be arbitrated under a joint panel, not the ECJ as is the case with Ukraine.
    > There will be fewer exceptions in the negative list of reserved areas than is the case with Ukraine.

    4. The UK will remain outside the EEA (obviously, given the above), and thus removed from the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ.
    > There is no way the UK is being a rule-taker across broad swathes of its economy. The model will be equivalence.
    > That said, I've little doubt there will be areas where equivalence is not available, and a limited sector based passport is agreed.
    > Further, that there will remain some limited areas of legislation where it is sensible to remain under EU regulation (and thus the ECJ). Fine.

    5. That we will remain outside [the] customs union and free to conclude our own trade agreements.
    > Having said that specific integrated supply chains will be included in the envelope of [a] customs union.
    > We will quickly pickup existing eu trade agreements, because we are willing to provide better terms (fewer protected areas).
    > Individual FTA's with Canada, Oz and Nz will eventually become a CANZUK trade zone.

    6. Security cooperation will be maintained, and in fact deepen in some areas.
    > We will have a formal agreement for participation in the nordic defense union, as well as the Visegrad group.
    > We'll keep on providing a security guarentee to europe, as well as supplying intelligence, and europe will continue being grateful.
    > NATO will weaken, rather than fail, and that will make us more important as a bridge to those for whom defence matters.

    It will probably require a transition period beyond Art50 to set in place the passports, equivalence regime, and arbitration.
    Broadly, i think this benign view of events will come about due to mutual self-interest:
    When 80% of FDI arrives through london, hard-brexit is calamitous stupidity to nations with negative interest rates, 10% unemployment, and weak growth.The next cyclical downturn is coming, u ready yet?
    Whatever the UK gets will be 'inferior' to EU membership. But that's fine, because it will mainly involve the EU keeping things we don't value very much, and the UK gaining things that the EU doesn't rate very highly. This is after all why we are leaving, because there was a mismatch between the perceived benefits and tradeoffs.
    Oh, and security for trade is definitely a thing.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 04-04-2017 at 18:09.
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  5. #35
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    Here is one issue, that have not yet gained much attention:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-weber-brexit

    It would seem that EU is not going to leave Euro Clearing to London after Brexit, which is going to hit the British financial sector pretty hard. Maybe it will move to Amsterdam, interesting to see what Frag´s says if it does.
    Goes both ways http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...obs-to-london/

  6. #36
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Ref what I was talking about before - Spain invaded Gibraltar's water yesterday: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...braltar-waters

    Honestly, this really could sink everything.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  7. #37
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Insanity, time to freeze Spanish accounts, if they insist on this put on the hurt, hello Spain, you got billions in The City the UK can play hardball as well and better because they are Brittish, and you are, well Spanish

  8. #38
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Ref what I was talking about before - Spain invaded Gibraltar's water yesterday: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...braltar-waters

    Honestly, this really could sink everything.
    These incidents are more common than one thinks and they rarely lead to anything substantial unless they're blown out of proportions (usually by the media).

  9. #39
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
    These incidents are more common than one thinks and they rarely lead to anything substantial unless they're blown out of proportions (usually by the media).
    You are right about that of course but Spain is actually being an asshole and fully knows what you said as well, if you look at it in the context of the EU trying to screw the UK any way they can, well..
    Last edited by Fragony; 04-05-2017 at 11:57.

  10. #40
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
    These incidents are more common than one thinks and they rarely lead to anything substantial unless they're blown out of proportions (usually by the media).
    They're very common - we put up with them. The point is that this is how the Spanish have been pursuing this, with illegal incursions and onerous border checks.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  11. #41
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    They're very common - we put up with them. The point is that this is how the Spanish have been pursuing this, with illegal incursions and onerous border checks.
    Conquering it 300 years ago was not an illegal incursion?
    From a nationalist perspective, one the UK should be very familiar with, it only makes sense that they want to reunite their nation's territory.


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  12. #42
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    Conquering it 300 years ago was not an illegal incursion?
    From a nationalist perspective, one the UK should be very familiar with, it only makes sense that they want to reunite their nation's territory.
    Under the laws of war, no.

    We are not legally at war with Spain.

    Also - times have changed and Gibraltar has been British throughout living memory. There is no one alive now who remembers it being Spanish. Furthermore, the citizens of Gibraltar want to remain British, and they were born there.

    Support for the Spanish position is untenable - morally speaking - because Gibraltar does no harm to Spain as a British territory but handing it over to Spain would do great harm to Gibraltarians.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  13. #43
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    handing it over to Spain would do great harm to Gibraltarians.
    Probably not, but people tend to prefer status quo if there are no obvious and/or immediate benefits.

  14. #44
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Under the laws of war, no.

    We are not legally at war with Spain.

    Also - times have changed and Gibraltar has been British throughout living memory. There is no one alive now who remembers it being Spanish. Furthermore, the citizens of Gibraltar want to remain British, and they were born there.

    Support for the Spanish position is untenable - morally speaking - because Gibraltar does no harm to Spain as a British territory but handing it over to Spain would do great harm to Gibraltarians.
    Would you prefer if they declared war on you?

    And how many people were still alive who remembered the actual state of Israel when you gave it back to them?
    Times may have changed, but that is not really an argument you can win a conflict with.

    Gibraltar harms the Spanish national spirit as it is like a mark of defeat, a stain on the integrity of their national territory.
    They also reconquered their land from the Caliphate(s) long after anyone who remembered it being Spanish land was still alive.
    As a historian you should know that the national memory lasts far longer than the personal one.

    As Sarmatian says, the Spanish wouldn't harm Gibraltarians most likely, but the Spanish are harmed by this stain on their territory every day.
    Last edited by Husar; 04-05-2017 at 18:00.


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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    As a historian you should know that the national memory lasts far longer than the personal one.
    If Mexico and Canada can federalize with the United States, I'm fine with Germany reclaiming Pomerania and Silesia.

    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  16. #46
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    If Mexico and Canada can federalize with the United States, I'm fine with Germany reclaiming Pomerania and Silesia.
    Well, due to the EU, the entire HRE/Frankish Empire and a few others are reunited anyway.
    The Spanish would have stopped this sillyness anyway by the time they'd all been Europeans instead of UKzians and Spaniards.
    The EU Navy cannot violate its own territory in the future, but it can violate UK territory.


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  17. #47
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    Would you prefer if they declared war on you?

    And how many people were still alive who remembered the actual state of Israel when you gave it back to them?
    Times may have changed, but that is not really an argument you can win a conflict with.

    Gibraltar harms the Spanish national spirit as it is like a mark of defeat, a stain on the integrity of their national territory.
    They also reconquered their land from the Caliphate(s) long after anyone who remembered it being Spanish land was still alive.
    As a historian you should know that the national memory lasts far longer than the personal one.

    As Sarmatian says, the Spanish wouldn't harm Gibraltarians most likely, but the Spanish are harmed by this stain on their territory every day.
    We tolerate the existence of the independent United States. Why shouldn't the Spanish tolerate the existence of a British Gibraltar. Both are marks of defeat. Should the Spanish get the Netherlands back as well, to soothe their easily upset historical sensibilities?

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    We tolerate the existence of the independent United States. Why shouldn't the Spanish tolerate the existence of a British Gibraltar. Both are marks of defeat. Should the Spanish get the Netherlands back as well, to soothe their easily upset historical sensibilities?
    or, we could have calais back.

    self determination either means something, or it does not. spain needs to figure out which way to fall on the issue.
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  19. #49
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    or, we could have calais back.

    self determination either means something, or it does not. spain needs to figure out which way to fall on the issue.
    Britain holds Gibraltar by right of conquest (right wing argument, went out of fashion after Napoleon), right of treaty (right wing argument, has never gone out of fashion), and right of self determination (left wing argument, became primary method of determination during WW1 and has been ever since). Husar's support of Spain over Gibraltar is based on wanting to screw Britain over, nothing more.

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  20. #50
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Oh come now, Gents, let's be reasonable and just agree that the Kingdom of Belgium has no right to exist. It should be partitioned and given back to the Dutch and French respectively.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  21. #51
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    People should accept the past and look forward. Hell Finland lost Karelia and Petsamo to Soviet Union during WW2, with them the second largest city at the time in Finland, Viborg, with half a million refugees from those areas relocating to areas that remained. We also still have people wanting to get those areas back after 73 years. What is in the past is in the past. There are always excuses for war, but is that shit worth it?
    Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.

  22. #52
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Oh come now, Gents, let's be reasonable and just agree that the Kingdom of Belgium has no right to exist. It should be partitioned and given back to the Dutch and French respectively.
    As Husar wants to turn back the clock to before Gibraltar became English, things were better back in the 17th century when holidaymakers from all over Europe were touring Germany for thirty years at a time. The native German delicacies were much enjoyed by these European tourists.

  23. #53
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
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  24. #54
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    We tolerate the existence of the independent United States. Why shouldn't the Spanish tolerate the existence of a British Gibraltar. Both are marks of defeat. Should the Spanish get the Netherlands back as well, to soothe their easily upset historical sensibilities?
    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    or, we could have calais back.

    self determination either means something, or it does not. spain needs to figure out which way to fall on the issue.
    None of those are in the immediate national territory of the nations, Spain still has a core on Gibraltar.
    Calais is the worst example since you conquered that from France in the first place.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Husar's support of Spain over Gibraltar is based on wanting to screw Britain over, nothing more.
    It's 90% pulling British legs, one of my favourite pastimes given how easy it is. The other 10% are revenge for the Brexit vote and generally being island whiners.
    Last edited by Husar; 04-05-2017 at 22:17.


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  25. #55
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Judging by the amount of dissatisfaction from the EU, to put it nicely, with the way the negotiations have went so far - and even the idea of Brexit - UK will have a sinuous road for the next two years.

    Free trade deal is the most important one and if it doesn't get negotiated fast, London will lose a ton of banks (first) and then a lot of businesses (second).
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  26. #56
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Britain holds Gibraltar by right of conquest (right wing argument, went out of fashion after Napoleon), right of treaty (right wing argument, has never gone out of fashion), and right of self determination (left wing argument, became primary method of determination during WW1 and has been ever since). Husar's support of Spain over Gibraltar is based on wanting to screw Britain over, nothing more.
    I think you have the basic flow of things correctly assessed here.

    However, I am not as sanguine with your ascription of self determination as the dominant theme for decision to the "left." I will note that I am reacting to that labeling as a yank, however, so it may be a translation issue.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  27. #57
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    Judging by the amount of dissatisfaction from the EU, to put it nicely, with the way the negotiations have went so far - and even the idea of Brexit - UK will have a sinuous road for the next two years.

    Free trade deal is the most important one and if it doesn't get negotiated fast, London will lose a ton of banks (first) and then a lot of businesses (second).
    And the EU's financial system will seize up, causing Eurozone Crash Two
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  28. #58
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    ...There are always excuses for war, but is that shit worth it?
    Sadly, I think it is an Emperor Mong thing. Wars truly "work" only seldomly, but it happens JUST often enough where people are tempted by it and won't give it up.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

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  29. #59
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    And the EU's financial system will seize up, causing Eurozone Crash Two
    Well, at least it would not be USA derivatives dealers causing the crash this time....probably....
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  30. #60
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    None of those are in the immediate national territory of the nations, Spain still has a core on Gibraltar.
    Calais is the worst example since you conquered that from France in the first place.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    It's 90% pulling British legs, one of my favourite pastimes given how easy it is. The other 10% are revenge for the Brexit vote and generally being island whiners.
    This is pretty much the definition of "being a jerk".

    Let's hope the EU negotiators are not also motivated by pique, although it seems they may well be.

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    I think you have the basic flow of things correctly assessed here.

    However, I am not as sanguine with your ascription of self determination as the dominant theme for decision to the "left." I will note that I am reacting to that labeling as a yank, however, so it may be a translation issue.
    Self-Determination is THE argument for sovereignty in the UK, there isn't really any other. The tenacity with which the UK holds to that argument has its roots in the Falklands War, a war we did not want to fight and which was very costly relative to the number of citizens and the territory at risk. This is why the UK can sometimes sound very bellicose, it's not a desire for war in the slightest, it's a fear that our resolve will be underestimated and we'll have to fight another war we can ill afford to protect our Overseas Territories. The view is then further informed by the bitter taste we have from freely handing Hong Kong back to China largely against the desires of the Hong Kong Chinese. A lot of Brits, myself included, feel at least partly responsible for what has happened since despite recognising that we couldn't keep Hong Kong without the New Territories and would not have been able to negotiate a new lease with the PRC.

    So, you'd beter bloody believe we'll defend Gibraltar, Bermuda etc. to the hilt
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

    [IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]

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