XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Cuthillius]

i'm going to skim the thread again

later

[Csargo]

@Csargo, what do you think of Fredwood?



Also per the multiple scum wagons theory, the voters who look best are the early Manasi voters, namely Barto (first to vote), auto, and more or less Winston (voted shortly after auto).

Of course Sooh is super clear forever as all have agreed.

I'm not positive, but I still haven't seen enough to clear him in my eyes. Need to iso him though, because I've been skimming the thread the last day phase.

[Sooh]

I somehow cannot read the post I quoted as being an attempt at distancing. Manasi was too busy defending herself to defend her companions, and I also do not think she'd that brazenly single out a partner.

So, yes, the spew is probably in Autolycus' favour.

Yeah, I think she was desperately trying to get someone else to swing at that point, and he was just the easiest one to go after.

[Sooh]

Personally I don't think we should worry about Fred just yet. Clear out BSmith and Novice first. There should be at least one wolf among them.

[Montmorency]

I'm not positive, but I still haven't seen enough to clear him in my eyes. Need to iso him though, because I've been skimming the thread the last day phase.

It's just interesting that you voted BSmith following "Cuth", but Cuth voted because he was convinced by Fred's case on Bsmith.

[Csargo]

This as a thought scares me, though I have the same sort of tell myself. I just don't usually direct people to look at it. Idk.

Well, I have no qualms about doing things that can be perceived as bad when I'm town, because I don't care. In order to survive you can't be too pure, or you'll end up like C_S. That's why my style is very abrasive as town. This is all pointless though, because WIFOM.

[Csargo]

It's just interesting that you voted BSmith following "Cuth", but Cuth voted because he was convinced by Fred's case on Bsmith.

I was at work on my phone, I didn't see Fred's case. I don't even need to see it, because the sum total of BSmith's posts and vote D2 already make him look awful.

[Csargo]

And I'm assuming it was some form of what I just said, because it's not that difficult to surmise.

[El Barto]

i'm going to skim the thread again

later

Sorry, do you mean that you're going to skim the thread sometime later, or are you just warning us that you'll dump a huge textwall right here?

Yeah, I think she was desperately trying to get someone else to swing at that point, and he was just the easiest one to go after.

He was highly unlikely to defend himself. Manasi got stuck in the mafia rut. After a few games of landing the same alignment you lose the edge.

Now, here's why I think we should lynch Novice tomorrow at all costs.

Personally I don't think we should worry about Fred just yet. Clear out BSmith and Novice first. There should be at least one wolf among them.

Day 2 was scheduled to end at :00.

At :57 the tally was tied at 5-5 between atpg and novice.

5 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice)
5 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo)

4 Manasi (Sooh, novice, Winston Hughes, crimson_snow)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)
1 El Barto (Csargo)
1 Sooh (Manasi)

(that's Zack's official tally on post #1353)

At :58, crimson_snow changes his vote.

Ugh.

Vote: Novice

This is mostly a protest mechanical vote because I am not wasting a lynch on a town read who could possibly die in the night from poison.

Which would leave us with

6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)
5 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice)
3 Manasi (Sooh, novice, Winston Hughes)

Manasi is always complaining about how she has to cook and work and what-not and is always justified in randomly disappearing from the thread. Her vote this day is a ridiculous OMGUS.
Suddenly, at :58 she pretends to take offence at a post by atpg:

Sorry I'm a baller and you're not.

LOL wtf

vote: pizza

And the day ends less than two minutes later with:

Official Tally as of #1362

----

Day 2 ends in:

----

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

3 Manasi (Sooh, novice, Winston Hughes)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)
1 El Barto (Csargo)

----

Not Voting: n/a

Not Posting: autolycus

Ding, ding, ding!

Why, oh, why, would a human mafiosa risk break cover if both were town? Atpg is now a proven townie. Manasi is a proven scummo. Hmm-hmm.
To make it even more obvious, crimson_snow was confirmed town by the nightkill.

Out of the remaining players: autolycus - BSmith - Csargo - Cuthillius - Dp101 - El Barto - Fredwood - Logic - Montmorency - novice - Sooh - Winston Hughes

Autolycus is spewed as highly likely town. BSmith I don't like. Csargo might just be having his best D1 town game ever. Cuthillius might live for another day or two. Dp101 is not off the hook (see my comment above on Manasi attacking autolycus' suspicions on him when there was no need). El Barto is always scummy. Fredwood… hmmm, I don't know his meta well enough, I could give him a chance. Novice is dead meat. Sooh is practically cleared by in-thread behaviour. Winston is probably town.

[Sooh]

Here ya go, Barto.

[El Barto]

I am trying to be a helpful townie and solve the game rather than only troll the mafia and blunder into them, so maybe everybody should run for cover.

It feels empowering.

[Csargo]

Sorry, do you mean that you're going to skim the thread sometime later, or are you just warning us that you'll dump a huge textwall right here?

He was highly unlikely to defend himself. Manasi got stuck in the mafia rut. After a few games of landing the same alignment you lose the edge.

Now, here's why I think we should lynch Novice tomorrow at all costs.

Day 2 was scheduled to end at :00.

At :57 the tally was tied at 5-5 between atpg and novice.

5 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice)
5 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo)

4 Manasi (Sooh, novice, Winston Hughes, crimson_snow)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)
1 El Barto (Csargo)
1 Sooh (Manasi)

(that's Zack's official tally on post #1353)

At :58, crimson_snow changes his vote.

Which would leave us with

6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)
5 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice)
3 Manasi (Sooh, novice, Winston Hughes)

Manasi is always complaining about how she has to cook and work and what-not and is always justified in randomly disappearing from the thread. Her vote this day is a ridiculous OMGUS.
Suddenly, at :58 she pretends to take offence at a post by atpg:



And the day ends less than two minutes later with:


Ding, ding, ding!

Why, oh, why, would a human mafiosa risk break cover if both were town? Atpg is now a proven townie. Manasi is a proven scummo. Hmm-hmm.
To make it even more obvious, crimson_snow was confirmed town by the nightkill.

Out of the remaining players: autolycus - BSmith - Csargo - Cuthillius - Dp101 - El Barto - Fredwood - Logic - Montmorency - novice - Sooh - Winston Hughes

Autolycus is spewed as highly likely town. BSmith I don't like. Csargo might just be having his best D1 town game ever. Cuthillius might live for another day or two. Dp101 is not off the hook (see my comment above on Manasi attacking autolycus' suspicions on him when there was no need). El Barto is always scummy. Fredwood… hmmm, I don't know his meta well enough, I could give him a chance. Novice is dead meat. Sooh is practically cleared by in-thread behaviour. Winston is probably town.

What did I do? Why don't you hate me like everyone else?

[El Barto]

What did I do? Why don't you hate me like everyone else?

Follow the same analysis you're quoting. At :57 you were voting for novice and kept it there even after crimson_snow and Manasi did their shenanigans.

I am on a roll. Everybody with me!

[El Barto]

I left out Monty and Logic. They both had their votes on novice at :57 and didn't flinch.

If novice is revealed as scum, which I expect, all six of us voting him at EOD2 are town.

If you got the motion…

Everybody in the house do the Bartman!
Everybody if you can do the bartman!

[Fredwood]

What did I do? Why don't you hate me like everyone else?

I think you're A-OK

[Cuthillius]

It's just interesting that you voted BSmith following "Cuth", but Cuth voted because he was convinced by Fred's case on Bsmith.

where do you get that impression

[Csargo]

where do you get that impression

I was wondering the same thing. Monty trying to shade me hard. Interesting.

[El Barto]

Hey, mafiats, you lot are in deep, deep trouble.



If I'm right, then yes, it was me and I did do it. You lot're in trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!

If we have a vig or roleblocker novice is a prime target. Need I even say that?

[Montmorency]

where do you get that impression

Here

It's garbage the day ends in 3 hours. this

I don't feel great about novice, manasi, Sooh, or Bsmith. Maybe in the night I'll be able to catch up. Of those options Bsmith is the least helpful, so I'm going to go with Cuth here.

Vote:BSmith

...but you were previously voting for sooh...

What changed your mind there?

Cuth.

I was wondering the same thing. Monty trying to shade me hard. Interesting.

You were wondering? But you answered that question just now, so what were you wondering about?

I was at work on my phone, I didn't see Fred's case. I don't even need to see it, because the sum total of BSmith's posts and vote D2 already make him look awful.

[Montmorency]

Hey, mafiats, you lot are in deep, deep trouble.



If I'm right, then yes, it was me and I did do it. You lot're in trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!

If we have a vig or roleblocker novice is a prime target. Need I even say that?

I think BSmith may be the best vig at this point.

[El Barto]

I think BSmith may be the best vig at this point.

And clear the way for more spew from novice? Could be.

[Csargo]

Here











You were wondering? But you answered that question just now, so what were you wondering about?

Why you thought Cuth was convinced by Fred's case? He didn't even mention it when he voted.

vote: bsmith

i feel like manasi/sooh could have one and novice could be one

but at the same time

i think smith's vote and subsequent explanation look worse

i

i really dunno right now

I thought that's what Cuth was talking about, and it's what I'm talking about. The only reason to assume that is because it came after Fred's post. Unless I'm missing something here.

[Montmorency]

Why you thought Cuth was convinced by Fred's case? He didn't even mention it when he voted.



I thought that's what Cuth was talking about, and it's what I'm talking about. The only reason to assume that is because it came after Fred's post. Unless I'm missing something here.

That is what I assumed, but OK. I think it's a pretty reasonable assumption though, more reasonable than scum clandestine coordination, which is itself more reasonable than outright crossposting IMO.

But you can never lose sight of Coincidence, I guess.

[El Barto]

The intensity of that EoD makes me think that scum was on the line.

Why would Dp101 post that? His vote was the second out of 6.

His vote clinched the Jowy lynch on D1.
He voted for atpg against novice (second out of 6 at EoD)
He voted for BSmith against Manasi. BSmith has been scummy enough to be a quality counterwaggon.

Also, as I've pointed out previously, Manasi defended him from a practically absent Autolycus. Her posting has been sloppy all game (nothing personal, lass, I know you'll be reading this).

FfoS: Dp101

My scummafia trio: Manasi (dead) | Novice (to be lynched on D2) | Dp101 as third member.

Now I'm off to read some posts in the last 100 since I logged off last night and I came back in today after the lynch. Manasi reads different once she's confirmed mafia.

[El Barto]

Re: N1, no kill. Somebody claimed to be bulletproof. Does anybody remember who that was? Links would be helpful.

[Csargo]

That is what I assumed, but OK. I think it's a pretty reasonable assumption though, more reasonable than scum clandestine coordination, which is itself more reasonable than outright crossposting IMO.

But you can never lose sight of Coincidence, I guess.

I'm just not entirely sure what you're trying to argue tbh. Seems convoluted, and isn't very clear. Fredwood made a case that Cuth sheeped then I sheeped Cuth, but I should have sheeped Fredwood because he was the original, ergo I look bad because I sheeped Cuth. When the correct person I should have sheeped was Fredwood, but there's no evidence in the thread that Cuth sheeped Fredwood. Feels like you're just trying to build a narrative that makes me look bad for inane reasons.

[Csargo]

Re: N1, no kill. Somebody claimed to be bulletproof. Does anybody remember who that was? Links would be helpful.

The guy who died N2, crimson_snow. I don't have links.

[Montmorency]

Why would Dp101 post that? His vote was the second out of 6.

His vote clinched the Jowy lynch on D1.
He voted for atpg against novice (second out of 6 at EoD)
He voted for BSmith against Manasi. BSmith has been scummy enough to be a quality counterwaggon.

Also, as I've pointed out previously, Manasi defended him from a practically absent Autolycus. Her posting has been sloppy all game (nothing personal, lass, I know you'll be reading this).

FfoS: Dp101

My scummafia trio: Manasi (dead) | Novice (to be lynched on D2) | Dp101 as third member.

Now I'm off to read some posts in the last 100 since I logged off last night and I came back in today after the lynch. Manasi reads different once she's confirmed mafia.

Jowy was a self-pres vote to be fair, and recall Pizza's comment on Manasi-Csargo crazy GOAT team for EOD1 DP votes.

I'm just not entirely sure what you're trying to argue tbh. Seems convoluted, and isn't very clear. Fredwood made a case that Cuth sheeped then I sheeped Cuth, but I should have sheeped Fredwood because he was the original, ergo I look bad because I sheeped Cuth. When the correct person I should have sheeped was Fredwood, but there's no evidence in the thread that Cuth sheeped Fredwood. Feels like you're just trying to build a narrative that makes me look bad for inane reasons.

Because it looks like distancing from Fred's case, when in some scenarios you and Fred could be scum partners.

[Montmorency]

Between Csargo and novice, I don't think the two could be partners based on D1 vote distribution (especially given the Jowy wagon looks to have been all town), but it is my impression that the two have tended to avoid each other. Is that wrong?

BSMITH-NOVICE WAGON ALIGNMENT ANALYSIS

I just want to summarize some of the thoughts I've put out tonight for D4. What have my theories been concerned with?

Manasi is scum. Cuth, Sooh, DP, and then Auto/Barto look good and don't fit easily into the potential teams we are looking at.

Of Logic Winston novice BSmith Csargo Fredwood let's say 3 remaining scum. I haven't wanted to think too hard in terms of Logic and Winston specifically, so for now leave them as wildcards. Look at the remaining 4, the wagon-candidates novice and Bsmith, and the two players Csargo & Fredwood, who are linked by the formation of the BSmith counter to Manasi D3 as well as having looked pretty town overall (but Csargo declining D3).

The crucial question has been, were BSmith and novice both scum wagons? Possibilities:

1. Novice is town and BSmith is town

In this case, Fredwood starting the Bsmith wagon and/or Csargo thirding it were meant to dilute the Manasi wagon and get someone other than Manasi lynched. Given the BSmith wagon progression, if either Csargo or Fredwood fli[s scum, the other is more likely to be scum. Not quite a package deal, but a significant factor. Winston could conceivably be a partner here, but Logic is more likely. So, most likely team Fred-Csargo-Logic(-Manasi). I don't really like this scenario among the options, and not just because Logic in turn tried to form a Csargo counterwagon EOD. This scenario then leaves open tinfoil on DP or Barto additionally, making it the most open-ended.

With the following scenarios, a vig on either novice or Bsmith (but especially BSmith) is enormously helpful.

2. Novice is town and BSmith is scum

In this case Fredwood and Csargo are essentially cleared, with over-points for Cuth and Sooh. Logic and I look worst. In this case Logic is almost certainly scum, and the third partner is a tinfoil among auto/DP/Barto/Winston. This scenario is potentially even more dangerous than one in which both wagons are town.

3. Novice is scum and BSmith is town

In this case, the Fredwood-Csargo connection and malicious formation of Bsmith wagon are reprised as considerations. The difference with Scenario 1 is that Fred and Csargo are even more likely to be paired, and Cuth/DP look worse while Logic may fit a bit less well as partner.

Overall, I give Bsmith a null, with a slight wolf lean. I don't think his little bit implicates anyone else, but I find it unlikely that he would talk to his teammates with only 5 posts, so if Bsmith is a wolf, I give Cuth and Csargo slightly better town leans.

4. The centerpiece: Novice is scum and BSmith is scum

This is my preferred scenario, because it preserves the people I have liked and makes for the simplest game. Here, Csargo and Fred are genuine townies just making another good case because no way scum compromise a third partner when two are already leading wagons. Assuming after Manasi-novice-BSmith are eliminated that there is one partner left, I would bet on auto just for lack of skin and for taking novice as still likely town D3.

[Csargo]

Jowy was a self-pres vote to be fair, and recall Pizza's comment on Manasi-Csargo crazy GOAT team for EOD1 DP votes.



Because it looks like distancing from Fred's case, when in some scenarios you and Fred could be scum partners.

How does it make sense for me to vote Dp101 D1 in that situation?

Why would I distance from Fred's case, but vote with him? When I could have voted novice or just left my vote on Sooh. Are you saying my scum team is novice and Fred? How does that make sense?