XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

And DP for deciding the tally more or less, I suppose.

[Montmorency]

I don't think these were all-scum wagons unless we're talking about Csargo-novice-Manasi-?. But that's actually a plausible team right now.

[Sooh]

I'd like a BSmith/Novice thunderdome tomorrow I think. Definitely still suspicious of them both.

[Sooh]

I don't think these were all-scum wagons unless we're talking about Csargo-novice-Manasi-?. But that's actually a plausible team right now.

Why are you excluding BSmith?

[Montmorency]

Why are you excluding BSmith?

That's the No.4, yes.

[Fredwood]

Good work Sooh

[novice]

Good job, novice!

[Fredwood]

I'll give credit for Sooh for scummreading Manasi since day 1, not you. Soz.

[Montmorency]

sup.

Leave me alone, Barto. I got the done and then decided to relax for a second. I thought it'd be better if I let you guys know before because I knew I'd be working for like 20 hours straight.

Still a wagon feelsbadman.


5 PM EOD feelsbadman.


Prolly won't be around, mostly bc I'll probably just be coming home from work.


As for slight catch up...

• Csargo is town.
• I think novice is town. -- Yes, that means I think we had v/v/v wagons. I know that's unreasonable, just a gut read.
• I feel like I'm not gonna be able to be very happy this game until we resolve Sooh, but that might be me just being stubborn.
• El Barto dropping RAPIDLY. Would vote today or tomorrow.
• Should be around for the rest of the day unless my other boss realizes he hasn't seen me in something around a week.

Reason to feel bad about Csargo and novice - as I said, based on Pokemon my suspicion is that Manasi tends to list her partners as her town core. Here, it is Cuth, novice, and Csargo - and Cuth is my town core. As for BSmith, it would look bad regardless, clearing him and voting for self-pres (no CFD?), clearing him clearing him while sacrificing herself. So Bsmith-scum not affected by that in the model.

D3 Csargo here was the worst of PokeCsargo (scum). In a perfect parallel, someone blocks him tonight and we have him dead to rights D4.

Flips, to a greater extent than with Fredwood, will resolve the question IMO.

Welp, just seven hours left in the day?


I meant, were you really that sussed?


It was a crosspost.



Should also include post 1535:


Town:
novice

Not willing to lynch:
Cuthillius
Dp101
Winston Hughes

Don't think so:
Sooh
Fredwood

Willing to lynch:
autolycus
BSmith
Csargo
El Barto
Logic
Manasi
Montmorency

The one wrench to scum-novice here is that novice leans POE on his likely partners (tho high up, giving opportunity to shift), and he did vote Manasi today. As per the all-scum-wagons qualification, the town point turns to a scum point if BSmith is also scum. (Meanwhile, Fredwood returns to high town in that case and Csargo looks somewhat better).

I have to conclude that BSmith-novice dome tomorrow is the best idea, with so many loose ends cleared up by either one.

[Montmorency]

Current leans:

Cuth


Sooh
DP
Fredwood (up or down based on flips)

auto
Barto
Winston

---
Csargo (up or down based on posting and flips)
---

Logic

BSmith
novice

[Montmorency]

Wait, something about novice's scum list that confuses me - so in his original list, he used reverse ordering?

Not so easy. Maybe:

Willing to lynch:
Manasi
Montmorency

More willing to lynch:
Csargo
El Barto

Even more willing to lynch:
autolycus
BSmith
Logic

Willing to lynch:
autolycus
BSmith
Csargo
El Barto
Logic
Manasi
Montmorency

Most willing to lynch Bsmith, auto, Csargo, yet his votes for the day were Montmorency and Manasi?

Why were relative positions of the other leans static, when Logic suddenly leapt from middle-of-the-group to top (?) lynch candidate?

Something is weird here beyond the ordering.

[Sooh]

Odds are I might be dead tomorrow for thunderdoming Manasi, so I must ask you to please move forward with the BSmith and Novice wagon idea.

[novice]

The first list I published was unordered, or rather, in alphabetical order.

[novice]

Also, I didn't vote for you, I voted Logic -> Manasi.

[Montmorency]

Also, I didn't vote for you, I voted Logic -> Manasi.

I apologize, that was DP.

[Fredwood]

I feel so stupid calling Montmorency Montgomery the whole time. I thought it strange people were misspelling his name an awful lot.

[Montmorency]

IMPORTANT READ FIRST

Finally, since Pizza said to look to his Manasi superwall for partner spew in case she flips scum:

Manasi iso superwall:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Kind of like this the best out of her opening posts. Probably NAI though.

Townie tone, probably easy for Manasi to fake.



Snap response to dp101's opening is about the same as mine. Mindmeld.



Can be pocketing.



Manasi-Winston unlikely. Think Sooh-Manasi as a pair unlikely now that time has passed and I've thought about it more.



Manasi-novice possible but this may just be coincidence.



Manasi-crimbo unlikely.



Manasi-Csargo goating it up this game, if it were the case. Csargo moreso than Manasi. Unlikely to me.



Dunno about that Jowy read but I'll keep looking.



Manasi-dp unlikely.



Surprising reaction. Kinda iffy.



Manasi-Csargo possible if Csargo is scum somehow here. Strategy is to deliberately blow townies off the board with WIM?

I dunno I think Manasi'd be posting even more if that were the case.



Manasi-sooh unlikely. Manasi not going to carry it with a d1 bus. Could be high risk distancing of a less active wolf, to get as much equity out of Sooh-slot as possible. I've done that before several times, it's probably the only reason I'm even tinfoiling this a little.



Manasi-Cuth unlikely.



Manasi-crimbo still looks unlikely.



Manasi-winston unlikely.



Not very comfortable with this post.



Manasi-Csargo showboating if scum together.



Manasi-Sooh can't be mutual bussing. Manasi slot was going for the town creds for bussing Sooh if Sooh-Manasi, I don't think you ever push Manasi back in such a situation. It's really bad if you somehow made it happen. You'll never explain how you lived through to final 3.

So, not pushing back on Manasi makes sense even if both are scum.

Don't think the team is Manasi-Sooh-Novice so I don't like this tinfoil. I think one at most between the two.

Sooh scummier between the two? Still need to look over Sooh again.



I think brain is tired, I'm not getting a lean one way or the other here.

Manasi should be a stronger town read from me, and it all feels like how cardboard tastes. Not sure if it's Manasi causing it, or my sucking at reading her.

I thought I completely blew away the Manasi town read last time and it was super pure. Not feeling that here.



This is normal for Manasi. Voting near end of day to explicitly lynch someone is how Manasi towns.



Don't like this post for reasons already stated. Manasi addressed it, just noting it for thoroughness.



Manasi-barto maybe? My reads would be pretty terrible to make this happen.

I think I've now mentioned Manasi's name more than anyone else ever has combined. It's frustrating me that I don't have a stronger lean. I should have one by now.



Feels true enough. I feel like Manasi-scum would be reacting to me by now, like someone swatting at a stinging bee.

I think town Manasi has me town and therefore I'm just invisible to her.



But of course.

Noted.



Hmm. I kind of want to sheep this.


__________________________


Manasi townish with mixed feelings, but I should be doing better at town-reading her. Feels like how I felt toward Zander when he was scum.

Manasi-scum makes a ton of people look amazing though. I think several folks are not scum with Manasi.

Don't feel great about pulling the trigger on that when I have a scummier novice and many more probable options.



Manasi-novice still not discounted.



Manasi-Fredwood unlikely, imo.


I feel like I'd be getting more pushback if Manasi-scum was correct. Maybe she's just good.



Fair.



This is also quite true.



Seems fine.



Sooh can post this thought as town easily.



Best way to find scum-sooh: treat her fairly, give her space to work, take her seriously, encourage her to engage. The more she gives you the more accurate the read. Even if you suspect Sooh, draw her out and see about the depth in her thought. She will not do well with unfair/unjust suspicions as town, and especially not being ignored. Will taint your read of her.



Looks like possible distancing, or novice just scum. I can't clear Manasi based on this even if novice flips scum.



Manasi-winston not likely still.



Not pushing Manasi hard enough to discount distancing.



Manasi-Csargo goatest team of all time probably doesn't let Csargo hang with vote switches to dp and hoping for a miracle.

Too goat if so. It's a nice tinfoil and gg if that's the solve. I'm going to stick with likelier and saner scenarios.

This is me tapping out. I lean town slightly on Manasi. I should be reading her much stronger townie though at this stage... but that might be my too high expectations of myself.

If she happened to be scum, look here for partner analysis. It spews too many people town I think, mafia will lose.

1. Winston-Manasi unlikely (Manasi: "Winston's entrance towny")
2. Manasi-novice possible (waiting for novice to "post himself clear" like Pokemon)
3. Manasi-crimson unlikely ("semi-wolf" read on Csnow)
4. "Manasi-Csargo goating it up this game, if it were the case. Csargo moreso than Manasi. Unlikely to me."
5. Manasi-dp unlikely (DP: "Manasi seems more forced than usual")
6. "Manasi-Csargo possible if Csargo is scum somehow here. Strategy is to deliberately blow townies off the board with WIM? I dunno I think Manasi'd be posting even more if that were the case."
7. "Manasi-sooh unlikely. Manasi not going to carry it with a d1 bus." (Manasi votes Sooh toward EOD1)
8. Manasi-Cuth unlikely. (Cuth rejected Manasi's Sooh-vote above)
9. Manasi-winston unlikely. (Winston shading Manasi for weak ISOs and cheap town credit)
10. Manasi-Csargo showboating if scum together. (Manasi "COMPLETELY not OK with Monty lynch", Csargo replies: "Monty def your scumbuddy huh. I see.")
11. "Manasi-Sooh can't be mutual bussing. Don't think the team is Manasi-Sooh-Novice so I don't like this tinfoil." (Sooh "pushing back" on Manasi's putative bus)
12. "Manasi-barto maybe? My reads would be pretty terrible to make this happen." (Manasi: "Where did Barto disappear")
13. "Manasi-novice still not discounted." (novice: "Yeah I would like to see Manasi's response to this." wrt Pizza evaluating Manasi's reads on Jowy as the least substantive and genuine)
14. Manasi-Fredwood unlikely, imo. (Fredwood: "My plan is to try to get a better read on nulls, primarily Manasi (though I have a feeling that might be a lost cause) and logic, which I think won't be.")
15. "Looks like possible distancing, or novice just scum. I can't clear Manasi based on this even if novice flips scum." (novice criticizes Manasi over Jowy conduct)
16. Manasi-winston not likely still. (Winston feels Manasi and Logic still feel scummy for not responding to his concerns nor showing independent towniness)
17. "[El Barto] Not pushing Manasi hard enough to discount distancing." (Barto: "Manasi is posting too much fluff. See post #858! ... Csargo-Manasi-Champ for trio of mafiosi?")
18. "Manasi-Csargo goatest team of all time probably doesn't let Csargo hang with vote switches to dp and hoping for a miracle. Too goat if so. It's a nice tinfoil and gg if that's the solve. I'm going to stick with likelier and saner scenarios." (re: Manasi and Csargo voting DP at EOD1)

[Montmorency]

So much rides on the question of whether we saw multiple scum wagons D3.

Laziness plus early eod means I've only skimmed the isos, but this is where I'm at:

Cuth



Sooh/Barto



Csargo/Fredwood/Monty

Logic/novice/DP101/autolycus


BSmith



Manasi

Manasi >> Bsmith >>> rest, could be scum hedging on the outcome especially if he expects a Dome between the two, but the center mass here is more revealing since it offers so much space to shift. I hope Winston can clarify his leans tonight.

That wasn't exactly what I was thinking.

My first reaction when I picked it up after the pizza lynch was that it was Manasi setting herself up for a future townread on scumbuddy novice.

On reflection, though, it could just as easily be Manasi setting herself up for a future scumread on townie novice.

(Or, if I must look outside my tunnel for a moment, I suppose it could be a genuine observation made without any nefarious intent.)

So is novice scum or what?

So, you changed your mind on sooh, based on the two things Cuth has had to say on the matter?


Initially, Cuth ponders about your your sooh vote, gives an opinion, to which you disagree. But then Cuth later votes for Bsmith, and now you jumping on Bsmith and are doubting sooh based on Cuth's word?

I'm very tempted to vote for you, Csargo.

A good observation by Logic, but what strikes me is that Csargo relied on Cuth's vote for his own, without reference to Fred's instigating case.

I'll bite. unvote; vote: Csargo

Why?

Looks opportunistic.

Because I am actually here for once and don't feel like being boring. No mistake, I will vote to save myself and go back to Manasi if I need to. I'm fine lynching there too.

I agree. Looks like more distancing or hedging.

[Csargo]

Odds are I might be dead tomorrow for thunderdoming Manasi, so I must ask you to please move forward with the BSmith and Novice wagon idea.

Sorry for doubting you :(

[Sooh]

Lynch BSmith and Novice first. Then look at who's left and be smart.

[Sooh]

Sorry for doubting you :(

Aw.

I don't want to make you cry anymore, Csargo, but I wish you were clearer as town.

[Csargo]

Aw.

I don't want to make you cry anymore, Csargo, but I wish you were clearer as town.

My post count clears me tbh. I'll have more time over the weekend, and you'll see. I've been messing around too much this game, so I'll be more serious going forward. Promise, I'll do ATPG proud.

[El Barto]

Okay anyway.

How the are people reading Auto as town?

All two of his posts were him sheeping (now dead confirmed villagers) and doing ~nothing else to help himself.

He somehow had an independent scum read on DP who is so far down everyone's lists it's insane.


I'm just shocked he only has two relevant posts in the game.

How is this okay?

Vote: Auto

I don't know why.

Manasi - Grenadier

Oh, wait.

Boo-hoo-hoo.

[Sooh]

My post count clears me tbh.

This as a thought scares me, though I have the same sort of tell myself. I just don't usually direct people to look at it. Idk.

[Sooh]

I don't know why.


Oh, wait.

Boo-hoo-hoo.

lol did she just clear Auto? That's genius.

[Montmorency]

@Csargo, what do you think of Fredwood?

lol did she just clear Auto? That's genius.

Also per the multiple scum wagons theory, the voters who look best are the early Manasi voters, namely Barto (first to vote), auto, and more or less Winston (voted shortly after auto).

Of course Sooh is super clear forever as all have agreed.

[Sooh]

@Csargo, what do you think of Fredwood?



Also per the multiple scum wagons theory, the voters who look best are the early Manasi voters, namely Barto (first to vote), auto, and more or less Winston (voted shortly after auto).

Of course Sooh is super clear forever as all have agreed.

*nodnod*

[El Barto]

lol did she just clear Auto? That's genius.

I somehow cannot read the post I quoted as being an attempt at distancing. Manasi was too busy defending herself to defend her companions, and I also do not think she'd that brazenly single out a partner.

So, yes, the spew is probably in Autolycus' favour.

[El Barto]

Also on the spew from that post:

He somehow had an independent scum read on DP who is so far down everyone's lists it's insane.

Why, oh, why, would she cast doubts on the read on Dp101?

[Cuthillius]

nice