i'm going to skim the thread again
later
i'm going to skim the thread again
later
Personally I don't think we should worry about Fred just yet. Clear out BSmith and Novice first. There should be at least one wolf among them.
Sorry, do you mean that you're going to skim the thread sometime later, or are you just warning us that you'll dump a huge textwall right here?
He was highly unlikely to defend himself. Manasi got stuck in the mafia rut. After a few games of landing the same alignment you lose the edge.
Now, here's why I think we should lynch Novice tomorrow at all costs.
Day 2 was scheduled to end at :00.
At :57 the tally was tied at 5-5 between atpg and novice.
5 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice)
5 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo)
4 Manasi (Sooh, novice, Winston Hughes, crimson_snow)
1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)
1 El Barto (Csargo)
1 Sooh (Manasi)
(that's Zack's official tally on post #1353)
At :58, crimson_snow changes his vote.
Which would leave us with
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)
5 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice)
3 Manasi (Sooh, novice, Winston Hughes)
Manasi is always complaining about how she has to cook and work and what-not and is always justified in randomly disappearing from the thread. Her vote this day is a ridiculous OMGUS.
Suddenly, at :58 she pretends to take offence at a post by atpg:
And the day ends less than two minutes later with:
Ding, ding, ding!
Why, oh, why, would a human mafiosa risk break cover if both were town? Atpg is now a proven townie. Manasi is a proven scummo. Hmm-hmm.
To make it even more obvious, crimson_snow was confirmed town by the nightkill.
Out of the remaining players: autolycus - BSmith - Csargo - Cuthillius - Dp101 - El Barto - Fredwood - Logic - Montmorency - novice - Sooh - Winston Hughes
Autolycus is spewed as highly likely town. BSmith I don't like. Csargo might just be having his best D1 town game ever. Cuthillius might live for another day or two. Dp101 is not off the hook (see my comment above on Manasi attacking autolycus' suspicions on him when there was no need). El Barto is always scummy. Fredwood… hmmm, I don't know his meta well enough, I could give him a chance. Novice is dead meat. Sooh is practically cleared by in-thread behaviour. Winston is probably town.
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
Here ya go, Barto.
I am trying to be a helpful townie and solve the game rather than only troll the mafia and blunder into them, so maybe everybody should run for cover.
It feels empowering.
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
I left out Monty and Logic. They both had their votes on novice at :57 and didn't flinch.
If novice is revealed as scum, which I expect, all six of us voting him at EOD2 are town.
If you got the motion…
Everybody in the house do the Bartman!
Everybody if you can do the bartman!
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
Hey, mafiats, you lot are in deep, deep trouble.
If I'm right, then yes, it was me and I did do it. You lot're in trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!
Trouble… deep, deep trouble!
If we have a vig or roleblocker novice is a prime target. Need I even say that?
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
Why you thought Cuth was convinced by Fred's case? He didn't even mention it when he voted.
I thought that's what Cuth was talking about, and it's what I'm talking about. The only reason to assume that is because it came after Fred's post. Unless I'm missing something here.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Why would Dp101 post that? His vote was the second out of 6.
His vote clinched the Jowy lynch on D1.
He voted for atpg against novice (second out of 6 at EoD)
He voted for BSmith against Manasi. BSmith has been scummy enough to be a quality counterwaggon.
Also, as I've pointed out previously, Manasi defended him from a practically absent Autolycus. Her posting has been sloppy all game (nothing personal, lass, I know you'll be reading this).
FfoS: Dp101
My scummafia trio: Manasi (dead) | Novice (to be lynched on D2) | Dp101 as third member.
Now I'm off to read some posts in the last 100 since I logged off last night and I came back in today after the lynch. Manasi reads different once she's confirmed mafia.
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
Re: N1, no kill. Somebody claimed to be bulletproof. Does anybody remember who that was? Links would be helpful.
good lord| if you're telling the truth you're setting new records for scumminess as a townie -Renata on IM, 16/09/2011
Feles deliberatissimae subiugare humanitiati sunt, et res solae quae eas desinunt canes sunt.
I see I've been sigged yet again -Askthepizzaguy, 02/08/2012
Hindsight is 20/20 Askthepizzaguy, 10/07/2013
I'm just not entirely sure what you're trying to argue tbh. Seems convoluted, and isn't very clear. Fredwood made a case that Cuth sheeped then I sheeped Cuth, but I should have sheeped Fredwood because he was the original, ergo I look bad because I sheeped Cuth. When the correct person I should have sheeped was Fredwood, but there's no evidence in the thread that Cuth sheeped Fredwood. Feels like you're just trying to build a narrative that makes me look bad for inane reasons.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Between Csargo and novice, I don't think the two could be partners based on D1 vote distribution (especially given the Jowy wagon looks to have been all town), but it is my impression that the two have tended to avoid each other. Is that wrong?
BSMITH-NOVICE WAGON ALIGNMENT ANALYSIS
I just want to summarize some of the thoughts I've put out tonight for D4. What have my theories been concerned with?
Manasi is scum. Cuth, Sooh, DP, and then Auto/Barto look good and don't fit easily into the potential teams we are looking at.
Of Logic Winston novice BSmith Csargo Fredwood let's say 3 remaining scum. I haven't wanted to think too hard in terms of Logic and Winston specifically, so for now leave them as wildcards. Look at the remaining 4, the wagon-candidates novice and Bsmith, and the two players Csargo & Fredwood, who are linked by the formation of the BSmith counter to Manasi D3 as well as having looked pretty town overall (but Csargo declining D3).
The crucial question has been, were BSmith and novice both scum wagons? Possibilities:
1. Novice is town and BSmith is town
In this case, Fredwood starting the Bsmith wagon and/or Csargo thirding it were meant to dilute the Manasi wagon and get someone other than Manasi lynched. Given the BSmith wagon progression, if either Csargo or Fredwood fli[s scum, the other is more likely to be scum. Not quite a package deal, but a significant factor. Winston could conceivably be a partner here, but Logic is more likely. So, most likely team Fred-Csargo-Logic(-Manasi). I don't really like this scenario among the options, and not just because Logic in turn tried to form a Csargo counterwagon EOD. This scenario then leaves open tinfoil on DP or Barto additionally, making it the most open-ended.
With the following scenarios, a vig on either novice or Bsmith (but especially BSmith) is enormously helpful.
2. Novice is town and BSmith is scum
In this case Fredwood and Csargo are essentially cleared, with over-points for Cuth and Sooh. Logic and I look worst. In this case Logic is almost certainly scum, and the third partner is a tinfoil among auto/DP/Barto/Winston. This scenario is potentially even more dangerous than one in which both wagons are town.
3. Novice is scum and BSmith is town
In this case, the Fredwood-Csargo connection and malicious formation of Bsmith wagon are reprised as considerations. The difference with Scenario 1 is that Fred and Csargo are even more likely to be paired, and Cuth/DP look worse while Logic may fit a bit less well as partner.
4. The centerpiece: Novice is scum and BSmith is scumOriginally Posted by Logic #1500
This is my preferred scenario, because it preserves the people I have liked and makes for the simplest game. Here, Csargo and Fred are genuine townies just making another good case because no way scum compromise a third partner when two are already leading wagons. Assuming after Manasi-novice-BSmith are eliminated that there is one partner left, I would bet on auto just for lack of skin and for taking novice as still likely town D3.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
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