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Thread: XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

  1. #691
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I won't tunnel you, just work with me to find scum. What do you think of DP right now?
    He's been active enough to make reading him possible, especially if he keeps it up. I don't have good feelings but I really want to analyze the Jowy commenters.

    Give me minutes to do that and note that school starts for me in about an hour+, so some re-reads will have to wait until post-school and post-nap.

    I will do whatever I need to do before night ends. This is a rare chance to make use of the night phase and I intend to.
    #Winstontoostrong
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  2. #692

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    I needed to see that flip.

    Not what I wanted to see on the other side, but out of any d1 mislynch outcome, that one was definitely the most useful to my ability to solve this, and I still firmly do not think Csargo was a better option.

    If I had to do it over again I wouldn't even move my vote to dp101: If it randed and Jowy lynched, he flips town and it's much more difficult to analyze the end of round and the day leading up to it.
    i agree that csargo and dp were bad lynches

    i posit that jowy was also a bad lynch

    but at that monty is also a bad lynch, given his posts afterwards

    lessons learned

  3. #693

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    He's been active enough to make reading him possible, especially if he keeps it up. I don't have good feelings but I really want to analyze the Jowy commenters.

    Give me minutes to do that and note that school starts for me in about an hour+, so some re-reads will have to wait until post-school and post-nap.

    I will do whatever I need to do before night ends. This is a rare chance to make use of the night phase and I intend to.


    God, you're evil.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  4. #694
    Facilitating Understanding Member Dp101's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Cuthillius View Post
    i agree that csargo and dp were bad lynches

    i posit that jowy was also a bad lynch

    but at that monty is also a bad lynch, given his posts afterwards

    lessons learned
    Was there a good option?

  5. #695
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    Looking back at people who had any opinion at all on Jowy, ctrl+F shows this:

    Page 2:
    Manasi is the first to call Jowy town based on his obviously fake fakepeek.
    Page 3:
    Jowy gives reads but no one called him townie.
    Page 4:
    Barto scumreads Jowy
    Dp reads Jowy slight town.
    Barto insists I take a look at Jowy-crimson
    Page 5
    Cuth puts Jowy as town
    "jowy a nice free-flowing game BUT going in the right directions, has a mildly cocksure aura to him that i like"
    Novice townreads Jowy as a top town read.
    dp backs off his town read of Jowy a bit as a response to my push
    novice gives reason for townreading jowy
    after iso, novice suggests that jowy might have deliberately pocketed him.
    Page 6
    Winston townreads Jowy
    " Jowy because if this is his scum game, it's improved radically since I saw it last. "
    crimson also questions jowy townread.
    novice asks jowy to explain his behavior / process conflict.
    Cuth defends Jowy.
    Page 8
    Csargo votes Jowy after I push the issue.
    Monty doesn't push Jowy.
    dp waffles a bit on Jowy.
    Barto votes Jowy to tie the game 3-3 csargo-jowy
    Champ pushes Jowy to 4
    dp suggests ready to vote Jowy but champ's vote makes him hesitate
    dp again suggests Jowy is scummy.
    Page 9
    Manasi defends Jowy unconvincingly
    I force dp101 to self-pres on Jowy or be lynched, so he does.


    These are my first impressions only, but snap reading this after watching it all unfold from the control-search perspective,

    El Barto's read of Jowy looked genuine, specifically his odd pairing of Jowy-crimson and insistence I look there on page 4, just because it's so specific and audacious. I do not feel El Barto was scum pushing Jowy. That looked like a real tinfoil from him.

    In general, Cuth's read of Jowy is specific and well-formed, and despite his odd vote coloring I have no scum read on Cuth here. I think he arrived at Jowy town based on superior knowledge of Jowy's meta and methods, and this was not a forced or hollow scum reading a townie as town.

    I don't really trust Novice that much, but his process on Jowy matches what I've seen him do as town. He gives a reason or two to back off the town read, and I think he can fake all this as scum, but if he is scum he's not being caught by any of his behavior toward Jowy, I don't think. It all looks on the level, pretty much.

    Winston's townread of Jowy looks probably the most solid of the bunch. It's very firm, doesn't waver, and is based on his experience. I also don't think Winston had a chance to defend Jowy after the latest pushes of him, so he did everything he could to defend Jowy as a town read and none of it looked fake.

    crimson mirrors my thoughts on Jowy but never pushes it at all, and I do not detect a scummy agenda from crimson. He's also town to me.

    Csargo's push of Jowy looks normal, for him, and especially him unvoting Jowy looks great when csargo has 3 votes since his big tinfoil was always dp101 this game. I think he was on Jowy just to lend me a hand, but was willing to die to lynch dp101 who honestly had a bad first half of d1 and looked iffy all round. He can be scum because I've seen him make no effort to save himself as scum before, but this is just very gamble-y.

    Monty took no action which is nai for him, but I didn't see him ever defend Jowy for town credits.

    The least convincing person who commented on Jowy was Manasi.

    Jowy's fakepeek and cop cover was downright terrible and wouldn't have convinced town or scums alike, in my view. Manasi hanging on to that almost 2 full days later and bringing it up as her only comment about Jowy isn't realistic to me as an actual defense.

    If Manasi is scum and got a moderate townread from me, her behavior toward Jowy this game should be looked at.

    Will add a bonus read here: Sooh was present near end of round and I don't believe most of her reads. Suspicion on her is warranted and I want a lot of activity and behavior from her on day 2. She needs to be closely examined. She didn't take a stand for or against the Jowy lynch, and is dead wrong about me being scummy.

    Bad feelings about Sooh-slot can be due to her lack of engagement and being plugged into the game. So I want to see more before I make another hasty decision. Still, as someone who has seen her town and scum-sides, I didn't feel townieness yet.
    #Winstontoostrong
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  6. #696
    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    tl;dr

    FoS: Sooh, and mild FoS Manasi for that round.

    Those are my takeaways from the Jowy lynch. A lot of other people actually had very solid takes on Jowy that did not read scummy at all.
    #Winstontoostrong
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  7. #697

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Dp101 View Post
    Was there a good option?
    yes, a couple

  8. #698
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Missed giving a read on Champ.

    I don't think his vote on Jowy was scummy, and I don't think he really needed to put a 4th vote on Jowy because I don't think Csargo was scum in need of rescuing.

    Still, I can't give out town points for that vote. It can be a scum vote approximately the same frequency I'd say as randing scum in the first place.
    #Winstontoostrong
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  9. #699
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    That's all I can do before school besides just chill out.

    Will be here until then, though.
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

  10. #700

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    That's all I can do before school besides just chill out.

    Will be here until then, though.
    do you really think sooh as scum ever comes into thread and says

    hey lemme challenge pizza and just call him scum straight up

    now noted the only two times i've seen her scum iirc

    were in the games i hosted where she had to sub out and thus are not very represented

    but calling el barto pizza and ?manasi? was

    not something i think she does there as scum

    if so more subdued

    and i wholly disagree with your read on her in general

    please elucidate about what feels contrived about her reads

  11. #701
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Yeah I think she has no problem calling me scum when she's scum.

    There are games when she will try to pocket me, and this wasn't going to be one of those since she had a weak d1.

    Given how light and un-fleshed out all of her reads were, they were not at all dangerous for her to post as scum if she is scum.

    I don't agree with most of her scum reads as being likely to be scum.
    #Winstontoostrong
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  12. #702

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    Yeah I think she has no problem calling me scum when she's scum.

    There are games when she will try to pocket me, and this wasn't going to be one of those since she had a weak d1.

    Given how light and un-fleshed out all of her reads were, they were not at all dangerous for her to post as scum if she is scum.

    I don't agree with most of her scum reads as being likely to be scum.
    interesting

    ok

    thanks for response

  13. #703
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    dp101-Jowy interaction difficult to parse for alignment. I can see it both ways.

    Of everything he's done this game that scum reads to me, the waffley-ness on whether to vote for Jowy or not and his being timid about voting there even while calling him scum-

    It looks worse before the Jowy flip. If Jowy flipped scum there I think dp101 is hard to resolve as town if town.

    After Jowy flips town, the behavior is still questionable but could also just be dp101 town being timid and unsure.

    A better read on dp101 comes from looking at his d1 as a whole, and even better than that is his d2 or d3 and then taking all of that as a whole.

    So I will constantly re-assess on his slot as it gets easier to read with time.
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  14. #704
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Manasi-Sooh interaction looks bad on first glance.

    I don't think Sooh was in serious jeopardy at any point and it's good distancing. Both can be scum or one, and I'm starting to think 1 is way more likely than zero.
    #Winstontoostrong
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  15. #705
    Senior Member Senior Member Yeti Sports 1.5 Champion, Snowboard Slalom Champion, Monkey Jump Champion, Mosquito Kill Champion Csargo's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Cuthillius View Post
    i agree that csargo and dp were bad lynches

    i posit that jowy was also a bad lynch

    but at that monty is also a bad lynch, given his posts afterwards

    lessons learned
    Hey! I know you, you're the guy that tried to lynch me that one time! Shame! Shame! Shame! Shame!
    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.

  16. #706
    Facilitating Understanding Member Dp101's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    I feel like trying to guess the setup based on the flavour for a bit, if you have no patience for that sort of thing, please skip the below spoiler.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Based on the opening post describing the scum as an XCOM team, I'm guessing that the scum's roles are the 4 basic classes in the game. Of those 4, the specialist (healing/hacking focussed class) is probably the easiest to guess, and is almost certainly a doctor of some kind.
    Remote chance of rolecop/watching/tracking abilities due to drones, but I doubt it. Grenadier has 2 strong possibilities. One is that he roleblocks or jails via his suppression ability, as in-game it is an effective way to lock enemies down. The other is that he's a strongman based purely on the size of his gun and explosives. Sharpshooter is more difficult, my guess is maybe tracker because snipers thematically watch everything with their sights, but I'm unsure. Reaper (shotgun/sword user) is the hardest, as they don't do much other than kill. Maybe a vig shot?

  17. #707
    Senior Member Senior Member Yeti Sports 1.5 Champion, Snowboard Slalom Champion, Monkey Jump Champion, Mosquito Kill Champion Csargo's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post

    These are my first impressions only, but snap reading this after watching it all unfold from the control-search perspective,

    El Barto's read of Jowy looked genuine, specifically his odd pairing of Jowy-crimson and insistence I look there on page 4, just because it's so specific and audacious. I do not feel El Barto was scum pushing Jowy. That looked like a real tinfoil from him.

    In general, Cuth's read of Jowy is specific and well-formed, and despite his odd vote coloring I have no scum read on Cuth here. I think he arrived at Jowy town based on superior knowledge of Jowy's meta and methods, and this was not a forced or hollow scum reading a townie as town.

    I don't really trust Novice that much, but his process on Jowy matches what I've seen him do as town. He gives a reason or two to back off the town read, and I think he can fake all this as scum, but if he is scum he's not being caught by any of his behavior toward Jowy, I don't think. It all looks on the level, pretty much.

    Winston's townread of Jowy looks probably the most solid of the bunch. It's very firm, doesn't waver, and is based on his experience. I also don't think Winston had a chance to defend Jowy after the latest pushes of him, so he did everything he could to defend Jowy as a town read and none of it looked fake.

    crimson mirrors my thoughts on Jowy but never pushes it at all, and I do not detect a scummy agenda from crimson. He's also town to me.

    Csargo's push of Jowy looks normal, for him, and especially him unvoting Jowy looks great when csargo has 3 votes since his big tinfoil was always dp101 this game. I think he was on Jowy just to lend me a hand, but was willing to die to lynch dp101 who honestly had a bad first half of d1 and looked iffy all round. He can be scum because I've seen him make no effort to save himself as scum before, but this is just very gamble-y.

    Monty took no action which is nai for him, but I didn't see him ever defend Jowy for town credits.

    The least convincing person who commented on Jowy was Manasi.

    Jowy's fakepeek and cop cover was downright terrible and wouldn't have convinced town or scums alike, in my view. Manasi hanging on to that almost 2 full days later and bringing it up as her only comment about Jowy isn't realistic to me as an actual defense.

    If Manasi is scum and got a moderate townread from me, her behavior toward Jowy this game should be looked at.

    Will add a bonus read here: Sooh was present near end of round and I don't believe most of her reads. Suspicion on her is warranted and I want a lot of activity and behavior from her on day 2. She needs to be closely examined. She didn't take a stand for or against the Jowy lynch, and is dead wrong about me being scummy.

    Bad feelings about Sooh-slot can be due to her lack of engagement and being plugged into the game. So I want to see more before I make another hasty decision. Still, as someone who has seen her town and scum-sides, I didn't feel townieness yet.
    I voted Jowy because you wouldn't vote Dp101, so I figured I'd just sheep you for a bit, because I thought his reaction to the 3rd party Monty thing was kinda scummy. He was pretty much null for me the rest of the day.

    Then Manasi revived my dream, so I had to go ATPG and follow my dreams. In the end I was disappointed though, so I will try again tomorrow.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.

  18. #708
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Everything about Sooh.

    Bsmith votes for Sooh
    Manasi calls Sooh awkward and forced.
    pg2
    Manasi clarifies her first self-wolf read is crimson. Doesn't mention sooh in that post

    Nothing happens for a while.

    pg7 onward
    Cuth asks if Sooh has posted at all.
    Manasi votes Sooh
    Cuth doesn't want to vote sooh yet
    crimson doesn't want to vote sooh yet
    dp hates the sooh vote
    Csargo not confident in sooh
    Csargo doesn't like Manasi's vote for Sooh
    Manasi would rather lynch sooh than monty, doesn't give additional reasons.
    Sooh notes Bsmith voted her and didn't move.
    Sooh thinks about voting Logic, reads Manasi town, El Barto "ehhhhh"
    Sooh reads crimson town
    Cuth reads sooh town
    Sooh puts pizza - logic - barto scum team
    Sooh puts fredwood as townie, not sure why. These reads feel rushed and not well supported, particularly with fredwood. Just seems thrown in there.
    Sooh votes barto and I don't think barto-sooh team is possible.


    _________________

    If Sooh is scum, I don't think Bsmith or El barto are scum with her.
    Manasi interaction with sooh can be distancing. After the first "awkward" comment, there's no follow up and doesn't even mention as the first scum read when she scum reads crimson. Later, her pushes on Sooh are a bit stronger, but not in a way I think anyone would find convincing.
    In fairness, I don't think you could plausibly push Sooh even stronger at that time because there was nothing to push.
    Sooh town can read Manasi as town even if Manasi wants her dead, that's NAI.
    Crimson is consensus town.
    Don't buy Logic as scum at all.
    Barto push had possibility because Barto had been around all day with mixed feelings about his alignment from several people. Barto was always more in danger of the lynch than Sooh.
    Cuth went on a limb to read Sooh town and I continue to have no issue with Cuth's alignment.
    Sooh's read of fredwood looks problematic to me.

    If Sooh town, Manasi looks less and less good. If Sooh is scum, I believe Manasi is still not clear, which I'm sure is irritating but this is how I see it.

    Now I must skip out, last day of school.
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  19. #709
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Csargo View Post
    I voted Jowy because you wouldn't vote Dp101
    I was at 49/51 of switching back to dp101 for his inability to vote a scumread of his, and his timidity surrounding even calling it a scum-read.

    The main reason I did not is you become a lot more likely to be lynched with those vote totals, and I was trying to do a tally and I wasn't sure I had it correct before end of round.

    You were always light years ahead of either candidate and I was not going to risk you.

    It's your head to risk, and what showmanship. But I was not prepared to do that.
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  20. #710
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    I abandoned the tally because I had 2 minutes left when I was making it, and the previous tally was on the other page. If I was going to make a final call between jowy and dp I needed to see the end of round in real time to make sure I met deadline.

    Ok now I really gotta run.
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  21. #711
    Member Member Sooh's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    tl;dr

    FoS: Sooh, and mild FoS Manasi for that round.

    Those are my takeaways from the Jowy lynch. A lot of other people actually had very solid takes on Jowy that did not read scummy at all.
    I'm with Monty here I think. I was going to wait and see for another day, but my takeaway is this:

    Pizza has a D1 full of theatrics. He's obviously starting out excited and ready to go. Throughout the day he does a ton of analysis, which for the time of the game and the state of the game I'd say is redundant at that point. He's giving a weak push on El Barto, but changes direction quickly. During EOD when I'm actually online despite not having been so for most of the game, he doesn't engage me in talk or ask my opinions or why I said I thought he was scum, he just tries to push and derail. I don't actually believe he cares so much who was lynched at all, as long as it wasn't anyone on his team.

    The cautionary tale here, and the reason why I wasn't pushing for his lynch D1, other than the obvious that I was sleepy as hell and wasn't sure I was grasping the game state right from speed reading 500 posts, was that there was, and is, a nagging "but he is capable of all of this as a townie too". So that's where I stand.

    I think he's scum, but probably will want to give him D2 to redeem himself and talk to me if he's interested.

  22. #712
    Member Member novice's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Cuthillius View Post
    ignore that then

    it's mostly been that, you've mentioned a few other people as consideration but apparently are scumreading DP SO highly that you're not even considering anyone else

    look, you quoted those posts, yeah? i don't see how those outweigh the many towny posts he's made

    there are a few posts that are scummy

    they're not even that scummy

    but you are acting like they are, and bringing them up like they're worth more than they are

    it COULD just be that i vastly disagree with you, but that just seems

    wrong or off or something

    but i just see a massive discrepancy between your stated confidence in your reads and the basis you're grounding them on
    Quote Originally Posted by Cuthillius View Post
    unvote: for now
    Quote Originally Posted by Cuthillius View Post
    i agree that csargo and dp were bad lynches
    What turned you off Csargo?

  23. #713

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    I really don't know what flinching is, so not sure how it would be textbook. I was checking in on the thread but there still no interaction with the post and more things that I had no reason to weigh in on, kind of interesting that there was pushback on it once it seemed certain I was not active in the thread. Seems convenient coupled with the fact that there was a number of people who "bugged" off after a period of time. Inconsistent stance. Pocketing the other top poster, focusing down easy mislynches (the new guy, the quiet guy, the inactive guy), using volume as a defense. I'll be inclined to think that I won't be voting for anyone who Pizza is voting for anytime soon, If you aren't scum I have 0 percent faith in your reads especially with them being so flimsy.

    Good feels about: CSargo, novice, and DP because of Barto, Cuth I liked the chunk of time he was active.

    People I want to feel good about: Sooh, reads are mindmelding, but have concerns about buddying (was a recent victim of buddying so I'm still scurred). Winston...if anything for him aggressively going after someone everyone seems to be afraid of. CS belittling him and dismissing him is another good look for Winston in a game where Pizza is scum.

    I've noticed Logic's posts, but I haven't formulated a read yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by El Barto View Post
    Pressure, sir? My vote in these games is always, by definition, a random vote.

    Not even I would go to such ridiculous lengths to justify a belated OMGUS-type vote.
    Lol nice try, I reaction tested you and you failed miserably, wasn't OMGUS. I may be new to this site, but I'm not new. So good job just enforcing my stance on you by trying to misrepresent my argument.

  24. #714

    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Fredwood View Post
    Winston...if anything for him aggressively going after someone everyone seems to be afraid of. CS belittling him and dismissing him is another good look for Winston in a game where Pizza is scum.
    I meant Pizza there not CS.

  25. #715
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [Game Thread]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    I'm with Monty here I think. I was going to wait and see for another day, but my takeaway is this:

    Pizza has a D1 full of theatrics.
    He's obviously starting out excited and ready to go. Throughout the day he does a ton of analysis, which for the time of the game and the state of the game I'd say is redundant at that point. He's giving a weak push on El Barto, but changes direction quickly. During EOD when I'm actually online despite not having been so for most of the game, he doesn't engage me in talk or ask my opinions or why I said I thought he was scum, he just tries to push and derail. I don't actually believe he cares so much who was lynched at all, as long as it wasn't anyone on his team.

    The cautionary tale here, and the reason why I wasn't pushing for his lynch D1, other than the obvious that I was sleepy as hell and wasn't sure I was grasping the game state right from speed reading 500 posts, was that there was, and is, a nagging "but he is capable of all of this as a townie too". So that's where I stand.

    I think he's scum, but probably will want to give him D2 to redeem himself and talk to me if he's interested.

    Here's a big red flag. This is all backwards.

    Now I pretty much know you're lying. You've seen the difference in how I handle day 1 as scum and how I handle it as town.

    One moment, I gotta bury my wife, you guys.

    A sad day for pizza, most certainly.
    #Winstontoostrong
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Previous game on this site. Town pizza. Sooh was in it.

    This is my 6th post of that game, extremely early in the round, in fact, so early that I got some guff for even having a reads list. I don't waste time getting down to business and trying to town-read people based off of anything they can give me as early as possible, mainly because the random vote stage and joke vote stage is utterly useless to an analyst.

    Sooh: "Throughout the day he does a ton of analysis, which for the time of the game and the state of the game I'd say is redundant at that point."

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    I have some time to take a look and here's my look. This is my impression of who is not a royalist and getting voted right now.

    (votecount)
    ^My guess is all these votes are misses

    Not sure what to think about these, I'd guess at least 5 townies being voted in this group.

    I feel roughly about here due to all the posts so far, and the vote count as it stands.

    Askthepizzaguy
    Renata
    Manasi
    BSmith

    NotACop
    atheotes

    Montmorency
    Snerk

    Monstrdude
    Kagemusha

    Zack
    seireikhaan

    Lewwyn
    Csargo
    Logic
    Choxorn


    If I had to place a serious vote, I'd guess there are 3 scums reside inside these 8, with my vote going most likely toward the bottom pile.

    Sooh
    Dp101
    Jabbz
    Fenn


    Arakhor
    autolycus
    Al Sipsclar
    El Barto

    reactions at the time, followed by my justification:
    Quote Originally Posted by Zack View Post
    Is that post supposed to be ironic or something?
    Quote Originally Posted by Manasi View Post
    This is a lot of reads for seemingly a lot of fluff stuff. ATPG idk if we've ever played together, I just remember you yelling at me for an MU game. Are you the goatest?
    Quote Originally Posted by Zack View Post
    That was my thought. Wagon analysis and 11 town reads at this point in the game? Not sure if I buy that's legitimate.
    Quote Originally Posted by Renata View Post
    I see the game has finally started.
    I didn't really want to get into this with an "analyze ATPG" session, but you put it out there when you could have just played silly buggers like me. Without getting too spammy, can you please justify your top three and bottom four reads?
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    I could, but I don't think it would be very persuasive to people. I can say it in general terms, to aid people in understanding that there was thought put into it.

    It's largely experience and instinct, based on paper thin first impressions, understanding of what I'd do if scum in this setup, what most players would do, and my analysis of the people inside my own faction who I don't want to name. I think I have a 70/15/5/5/5/0 read on my group based on their reactions to my opening posts there. The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment, if they were random, and they're not. The mafia's votes aren't random and even though most of ours are semi-random, there will also be biases regarding not necessarily piling votes on one's own faction members this early. Scum would likely be voting outside their own faction here, on a townie. I'd even put the odds of them voting for each other as higher than voting inside their own faction on a townie. That goes against the strategy of manipulating one's seeming faction-mates, it also draws attention and is therefore probably counterproductive.

    I haven't caught anyone, I just haven't found some people to be showing revolutionary colors yet. I'm working from a town-down perspective and including some gut suspicions into the bottom 4.
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    Oh and nobody ever thinks I'm acting like I do as town when I act the way I do as town, no one ever thinks I believe my own gut.

    I could only remind people (ineffectively as always) that I frequently go out on a way limb as early as possible in the game to get reads out.

    Gonna cite my strong opposition to the wagons on the MTGS crossover game on day one that no one believed were authentic but were, and my strong opposition to the current suspects in the hydra game, both games I was lynched day one.

    I know these patterns go against your instincts but my instincts are all backwards from yours.

    Note the bolded.

    How I ended the day 1 of that game: By voting specifically to protect my town read. Which lynched a scum. Then I shot one that night. Why? Because I try to find as many townies as possible as early as possible so that these early rounds aren't all faffing and wasted time.

    That crossover game I cited at the end of the above, btw, not only was I town, but I was a hydra account with Sooh. So not only has her last town-town experiences with me matched this game entirely, but she got to view it from inside my player slot in one of those. I was all business and hunting towns and defending them from death even when the silly nanners tried to lynch me for it. And I pushed a scum case hard there too, and that time I was right. So I have experience trying to make day 1s not a waste, because I know for a fact they don't have to be. Even this mislynch gave me tons of info.

    That's why this particular comment from Sooh triggered me.

    Next: Why it's backwards.

    Sooh: "But he's capable of it as townie too"

    In my view, town-Sooh logic should go like this;

    "This is how pizza behaves on day one as townie, in every game I can recall, he's just capable of it as scum."

    Next:

    "During EOD when I'm actually online despite not having been so for most of the game, he doesn't engage me in talk or ask my opinions or why I said I thought he was scum, he just tries to push and derail."

    Not sure I talk directly to Sooh much at all during the early days of any game. My stance on Sooh is to wait and see what she does, interfering with it as little as possible.

    Sooh, my dear, you aren't right this game.
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

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    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Actually now that I think of it, I might be mixing the hydra and the crossover game. The underlying point I was making doesn't change though.
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Your case on me is that I'm not doing enough.

    Your case is the flimsyest of flimsy. That's ok. Your turn to get me lynched this time. I'll lie down and roll over.

    Seriously, if you're town I'd love to work with you tomorrow, because I'm still feeling my case is on the wobbliest of shaky ground. I'm not going all in for Pizza lynch tomorrow. I'm just showing my hand and where I am with you right now. You can do your thing tomorrow and prove you're a good guy to everyone.

    Pro tip: It helps lynching a scumbag and I ain't one.

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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    That was my town game. Let's look at the 3 games of scum back to back that happened before that.

    Compare to scum game: Visor's Small Game in nov/dec

    I found two townies and tunneled dp101 as soon as possible, and made way fewer posts. And, got away with all of that not-working because scumming is easier than towning.

    Compare to scum game: The one right before that. This one has Sooh in it.

    I began tunneling Scarlett Aria immediately, and made no effort to find townies.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    I can be online for a bit later, I'll give preliminary thoughts on things, but here's the main problem- There's not been flips yet.

    I think we could use some different names as the top wagons, is my initial impression. But who, is something I haven't figured out yet. If someone wants to be a hero and lynch a wolf on the first day, and set us up for a great opening, sell me. My vote is not occupied atm.
    Quote Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
    I'm turning the next person who posts into a double-voter.
    (votes the way the next person voted)


    Look at the blatant excuse I use to not find townies there. Also watch me rely on others to push things, because it's dangerous to push things d1 as scum.

    The differences between how I approach d1 as scum and town are night and day, but I keep getting away with doing zero on day 1 in every scum game because it works, and it's safe.

    Compare to the scum game before that: Futurama.

    How many posts did I make on day one that game?

    I didn't even count, because I'm not even present on most pages of that day phase.

    Now, honest question: Can I change this up?

    Yes, yes I can. I'm capable of utterly blowing your collective socks off as scum on day one if I ever choose to.

    Do you know why I basically never choose to?

    Because it brings scrutiny! Because it brings suspicion!

    Because it hurts my survival chances, every single time I do it!

    I know, because my shitty town record proves it! So, I do the smart thing and let town self-destruct on day 1 as scum.




    [Worf curses in Klingon]

    Town-Worf: "You have always used your knowledge of town's d1 general lack of vigilance to get what you want from me as scum!"

    Scum-Pizza-Picard: "Because it always works, Town-Worf! Your problem is that you really *do* let me get away with the shittiest d1s imaginable, and really *don't* ever punish me for it! Don't blame me for knowing you so well."
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

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    Know the dark side Member Askthepizzaguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sooh View Post
    Your case on me is that I'm not doing enough.

    Your case is the flimsyest of flimsy. That's ok. Your turn to get me lynched this time. I'll lie down and roll over.

    Seriously, if you're town I'd love to work with you tomorrow, because I'm still feeling my case is on the wobbliest of shaky ground. I'm not going all in for Pizza lynch tomorrow. I'm just showing my hand and where I am with you right now. You can do your thing tomorrow and prove you're a good guy to everyone.

    Pro tip: It helps lynching a scumbag and I ain't one.
    If you can't read what I just said, and know how absolutely true it is, you're no townie. Point blank.

    You may not feel confident in reading me in games, but you've watched me play dozens of games and played dozens of games with me.

    You know my main priority as scum is protecting the team. I can't do that if I spew half a dozen people townie by killing it day one and then dying.

    You also know how much I want to kill scums right away, but mostly, find townies. You know this because you saw me start doing it in every town game since we started turbo-ing, where finding townies is key to locking the game away, and I'm hit and miss for finding scums.

    Scums have to mess up for you to find them, townies don't.
    #Winstontoostrong
    #Montytoostronger

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