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Thread: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

  1. #31

    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    If the actual American experience (as opposed to Trump's bugbear in the closet) is anything to go by, immigrants are responsible for less crime/capita than natural born citizens.
    Problems with the data aside, this would suggest a viable way to reduce the crime rate is increased immigration

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/illegal...by-immigrants/
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  2. #32
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by HopAlongBunny View Post
    If the actual American experience (as opposed to Trump's bugbear in the closet) is anything to go by, immigrants are responsible for less crime/capita than natural born citizens.
    Problems with the data aside, this would suggest a viable way to reduce the crime rate is increased immigration

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/illegal...by-immigrants/
    This is wonderfully ironic, in that the non-diploma'd male population who bothered to vote at all voted overwhelmingly for Trump. And the study suggests that, setting aside illegal entry to the USA as moot, the non-diploma'd male subset is 8 times more likely to engage in criminal behaviors than male illegals of a similar age.
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  3. #33
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Damage has already been done and there is no alternative except the AfD who has become shady, that doesn't mean the Gernans are appy with her, big dispite
    Come on Fragony, admit it: however critical you might have been about her ability to handle the situation, sie hat das geschaffen.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
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  4. #34
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    Come on Fragony, admit it: however critical you might have been about her ability to handle the situation, sie hat das geschaffen.
    She hasn't. She might schaff das but there are major problems. All succes-stories come from the first arivals, 3% of German's new neighbours. The rest are horny young single males who get a bit confused when they see these lovely frauleins. If it doesn't look that bad it is because it's kept out of the statistics, artificial succes, or better, a lie. Germans have to be figurants in a play, it will go the same as in Sweden if it doesn't already
    Last edited by Fragony; 09-24-2017 at 08:50.

  5. #35
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    She hasn't. She might schaff das but there are major problems. All succes-stories come from the first arivals, 3% of German's new neighbours. The rest are horny young single males who get a bit confused when they see these lovely frauleins. If it doesn't look that bad it is because it's kept out of the statistics, artificial succes, or better, a lie. Germans have to be figurants in a play, it will go the same as in Sweden if it doesn't already
    I have an impression that she has. The influx of immigrants (on such a scale as it used to be) has ceased, I don't hear any news of major troubles with those who are already there. Ultimately, the German voters will decide whether she hat das geschaffen or not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
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  6. #36
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    I have an impression that she has. The influx of immigrants (on such a scale as it used to be) has ceased, I don't hear any news of major troubles with those who are already there. Ultimately, the German voters will decide whether she hat das geschaffen or not.
    Hungary has closed the Balkan-route, and Austria the meditenarian, only bebause of the Visegrad-zone Merkel can relax a bit. She knows she screwed up as she says that it must never happen again. What she got she wants the European community to fix for her but they aren't very eager to schaff das for her. Especially the visegrad-countries tell her to schaff das herself, they don't want them. The Childless mutti is stuck witb a million horny young males of which many are hobby genealogists

  7. #37
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Hungary has closed the Balkan-route, and Austria the meditenarian, only bebause of the Visegrad-zone Merkel can relax a bit. She knows she screwed up as she says that it must never happen again. What she got she wants the European community to fix for her but they aren't very eager to schaff das for her. Especially the visegrad-countries tell her to schaff das herself, they don't want them. The Childless mutti is stuck witb a million horny young males of which many are hobby genealogists
    Funny how that works, they didn't build any fences when their workers came here to undercut our wages, pay no taxes and rob our cars and homes. But God forbid there's an EU system that they think they don't only benefit from. Then the fences go up within days. How about we build a wall and throw all the eastern euro workers out who "stole our jobs"? If they want to play that game, we should do it, too.


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  8. #38
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Funny how it works works indeed. And when you crave for a problem on top of that it should be even funnier It isn't sadly

    edit, how surprising, ex'-stasi and queen of the flood Merkel wins, I wish this was only bad for Germany but Germany is basicly boss of the EU
    Last edited by Fragony; 09-24-2017 at 17:35.

  9. #39
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    Funny how that works, they didn't build any fences when their workers came here to undercut our wages, pay no taxes and rob our cars and homes. But God forbid there's an EU system that they think they don't only benefit from. Then the fences go up within days. How about we build a wall and throw all the eastern euro workers out who "stole our jobs"? If they want to play that game, we should do it, too.
    That would probably have gone over well in the mid-90s after the initial 'high' of the Mauerfall passed. Fact is though that East Europeans are culturally more similar to Germans and less likely to end up of forming cultural enclave ghettos due to easier transition into the overall society to include upward mobility. I know I've seen enough sketch comedy from Britain about all the Polish and Hungarian workers that took British jobs.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8oX5NJt84

    While open borders sounds good there always needs to be a limit, if the whole of Afghanistan or Nigeria wanted to move to Germany would that be okay? Just because someone wants to move to country X doesn't mean they have a right to. Closed borders and purely ethnic criteria are equally wrong, no need to go back to the Nazi or Communist periods. It is possible to restrict the immigration of non-EU migrants without being racists. The refugee crisis does need fixing but allowing all to enter and forcing the member states to accommodate a quota of refugees isn't the answer.
    Unfortunately the solution would require Germany/EU to engage in a active foreign policy in Libya and Syria which includes the possibility of military occupation/peacekeeping until security is well enough established for local governance to be effective and responsive. Leaving the security and stability of Europe's periphery to the US and Russia is obviously not working for the EU which is directly impacted.

    As for the election, it will be interesting to see the SPD and AfD as the 'opposition' seeing as the SPD opted out of a Grand Coalition. I don't envision them working together much if at all but seeing German politics with less consensus and more debate will be interesting to say the least.
    Last edited by spmetla; 09-24-2017 at 20:23. Reason: grammar and spelling

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  10. #40
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    nice and balanced

  11. #41
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    That would probably have gone over well in the mid-90s after the initial 'high' of the Mauerfall passed. Fact is though that East Europeans are culturally more similar to Germans and less likely to end up of forming cultural enclave ghettos due to easier transition into the overall society to include upward mobility. I know I've seen enough sketch comedy from Britain about all the Polish and Hungarian workers that took British jobs.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8oX5NJt84

    While open borders sounds good there always needs to be a limit, if the whole of Afghanistan or Nigeria wanted to move to Germany would that be okay? Just because someone wants to move to country X doesn't mean they have a right to. Closed borders and purely ethnic criteria are equally wrong, no need to go back to the Nazi or Communist periods. It is possible to restrict the immigration of non-EU migrants without being racists. The refugee crisis does need fixing but allowing all to enter and forcing the member states to accommodate a quota of refugees isn't the answer.
    Unfortunately the solution would require Germany/EU to engage in a active foreign policy in Libya and Syria which includes the possibility of military occupation/peacekeeping until security is well enough established for local governance to be effective and responsive. Leaving the security and stability of Europe's periphery to the US and Russia is obviously not working for the EU which is directly impacted.

    As for the election, it will be interesting to see the SPD and AfD as the 'opposition' seeing as the SPD opted out of a Grand Coalition. I don't envision them working together much if at all but seeing German politics with less consensus and more debate will be interesting to say the least.
    It's not just about accommodating them all, it's also about helping Italy and Greece who get "flooded" with refugees regardless of fences.
    I get that we can't just invite all of Africa and the ME to come here, the problem is that if the refugees get processedby a few countries which are overwhelmed. The fence option also came a bit late once a huge number of people were already there. They had to be helped and processed by someone. And of course the xenophobic approach always "works", the more you openly hate foreigners, the easier it becomes to claim they hate you back.

    It's all just more "Me, me, me, me!"

    Spain also gets overrun sometimes and they resort toillegally sending people back sometimes. What would we do if we did set up refugee centers in the affected regions? Would Poland let Italy, Greece and Spain do it alone again or would they also send money and personnel? Why are they not doing it now already if they have so much better ideas?

    Also the forecasts show the CDU did lose quite a few percent, AfD is third strongest.
    The SPD already excluded another "big coalition" with the CDU. That leaves the so-called Jamaica-coalition of CDU, FDP and Greens as the most likely new government. If they can't reach an agreement it might get even more interesting.

    https://twitter.com/tagesschau/statu...469570/photo/1

    edit: slightly different forecast plus article in English: http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1169587.html
    Last edited by Husar; 09-24-2017 at 21:20.


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  12. #42
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    The processing bit is the problem, they should be sent back right to the country they departed from. If they tried to crossed over from Libya to Italy send them right back to Libya, don't even let them step foot in Italy. This would dump them in the lap of the 'smugglers' that profit from the current arrangement and kill that business line for them. The current system where they are 'rescued' just off the Libyan coast and then brought into Italy is a farce. Same goes for Morocco which tolerates the 'invasion' of the Spanish enclaves for political reasons. You don't see this problem happening in Algeria because Algeria does not tolerate it.

    The bigger problem is how to stabilize Libya which needs the EU to probably invade, occupy, and then transition to self government again with all the problems of war, neo-colonialism, and violence that would entail.

    The little countries are being selfish, yes, but that is their right too. Italy, Greece, and Spain shouldn't have to deal with it alone and those little countries should be contributing to a much larger and more effective FRONTEX which sends these illegal migrants right back to Turkey, Libya, and Morocco. The current solution of allowing them all in and then 'processing' them is essentially an open door because the 'processed' migrants are already let in and if deportation is determined for the individual one can only hope that they don't just go to another EU country to try again. Remember this is THE issue that essentially caused the Brexit. No migrant open door by Merkel and the Brits would more likely have elected to remain within. Understandably that's why Germany and France seek to punish the UK to discourage their recent EU joinees from leaving thereby draining it of it's cheaper Eastern Bloc labor pool.

    The xenophobic approach is a reaction to poor policy. At least the political system in Germany allows a party like the AfD to do its thing. It'd be far worse if those elements high-jacked an existing party and changed it like the tea party faction did to the Republicans in the US giving us a President Trump.

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  13. #43
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Even if she persuades Greens and FDP, Merkel is looking at a very fragile government.

  14. #44

    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    The processing bit is the problem, they should be sent back right to the country they departed from. If they tried to crossed over from Libya to Italy send them right back to Libya, don't even let them step foot in Italy. This would dump them in the lap of the 'smugglers' that profit from the current arrangement and kill that business line for them. The current system where they are 'rescued' just off the Libyan coast and then brought into Italy is a farce. Same goes for Morocco which tolerates the 'invasion' of the Spanish enclaves for political reasons. You don't see this problem happening in Algeria because Algeria does not tolerate it.

    The bigger problem is how to stabilize Libya which needs the EU to probably invade, occupy, and then transition to self government again with all the problems of war, neo-colonialism, and violence that would entail.

    The little countries are being selfish, yes, but that is their right too. Italy, Greece, and Spain shouldn't have to deal with it alone and those little countries should be contributing to a much larger and more effective FRONTEX which sends these illegal migrants right back to Turkey, Libya, and Morocco. The current solution of allowing them all in and then 'processing' them is essentially an open door because the 'processed' migrants are already let in and if deportation is determined for the individual one can only hope that they don't just go to another EU country to try again. Remember this is THE issue that essentially caused the Brexit. No migrant open door by Merkel and the Brits would more likely have elected to remain within. Understandably that's why Germany and France seek to punish the UK to discourage their recent EU joinees from leaving thereby draining it of it's cheaper Eastern Bloc labor pool.

    The xenophobic approach is a reaction to poor policy. At least the political system in Germany allows a party like the AfD to do its thing. It'd be far worse if those elements high-jacked an existing party and changed it like the tea party faction did to the Republicans in the US giving us a President Trump.
    Under the Refugee conventions I believe processing is obligated if they are found within the territory of the country. I think if they implemented your disposition, it would only remove a few thousand from the pool, since most migrant seacraft do not experience distress or land without being intercepted.

    One of the problems of occupying Libya now - besides all the other ones - is that you would seem to need a UN-sponsored mission that backs one of the factions, presumably the already UN-sponsored GNA. Also, both factions are currently being played off each other by Putin's Russia. Or if you don't have one side, even no sides, then how do you secure the Libyan coasts and ports?

    I think a coordinated EU response in the Mediterranean and the North Med coast is more approachable than investing heavily into a Libyan occupation, which doesn't even get at the source of most refugees down that channel.

    It is wrong to assume that the EU leadership wants to "punish" Britain in order to prevent members from leaving. Those members currently don't want to leave; the point is to prevent those members from trying to leverage special treatment and exemptions the way the UK did.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
    Even if she persuades Greens and FDP, Merkel is looking at a very fragile government.
    This DW tool for the election results is handy. There doesn't seem to be any possible coalition to eject the CSU/CDU if AfD don't participate, unless it's a coalition of all 'not-CSU/CDU', which won't happen. So doesn't Merkel have the upper hand in forming a minority government if she chooses to?

    Aside from AfD the clear winner is the FDP. Default conservative fallback?
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  15. #45
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Under the Refugee conventions I believe processing is obligated if they are found within the territory of the country. I think if they implemented your disposition, it would only remove a few thousand from the pool, since most migrant seacraft do not experience distress or land without being intercepted.
    Most migrants are not refugees as defined by the UN but migrating for economic purposes, I believe the number that came out in the summer was 70% of the migrants crossing the med are not definition refugees fleeing war or violence.

    I will stay out of this thread regarding this topic after this so I don't completely derail this when there's already a thread for migrants/refugees.

    I was using the same DW tool for the results, it is a good tool. I also liked their guide on the different 'color options' for coalitions. It will be a very trying time for Merkel, she's said she doesn't want to form a minority government so she'll have to give some strong concessions I imagine like happened in Britain.

    German election: Can the Greens and FDP join Angela Merkel in a coalition?
    The Greens and the Free Democrats have traditionally been bitter rivals in Germany. But will these two smaller parties put aside their differences for a chance at a coalition with the conservatives and a share in power?

    http://www.dw.com/en/german-election...ion/a-40507075

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  16. #46
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    FDP and the Greens? That would be a laugh. Only constant so far is that nobody wants to work with AFD, which is understandable, too many questionabe folks, too unstable internally. Minority government an option in Germany? That's how christian-democrats and liberals could form a government with support from the PVV as long as they didn't piss Wilders of too much (didn't work)
    Last edited by Fragony; 09-25-2017 at 12:13.

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    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    I wonder why Brenus says nothing about 94 parliamentary seats taken by neo nazis.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
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    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    FDP and the Greens? That would be a laugh. Only constant so far is that nobody wants to work with AFD, which is understandable, too many questionabe folks, too unstable internally. Minority government an option in Germany? That's how christian-democrats and liberals could form a government with support from the PVV as long as they didn't piss Wilders of too much (didn't work)
    Well, the Greens are pretty much "bored rich kids" as you would call them I think. Their voters are mostly from the upper income strata and don't adhere to the change they advocate. Going by how the Green government in Baden-Württemberg handled the Diesel scandal, even the environmental protection can be debated with them...

    A minority government without CDU and AfD would have to include both FDP and Greens as well, except then you'd have to somehow get The Left and the FDP to agree on anything.


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  19. #49
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    I got bord rich kids reserved for leftist activists

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    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post

    This DW tool for the election results is handy. There doesn't seem to be any possible coalition to eject the CSU/CDU if AfD don't participate, unless it's a coalition of all 'not-CSU/CDU', which won't happen. So doesn't Merkel have the upper hand in forming a minority government if she chooses to?

    Aside from AfD the clear winner is the FDP. Default conservative fallback?
    She does, but FDP and Greens together is going to be weird.

    With such a weird electoral system, I'm not sure who "owns" the seat in the end, party or the individual member. If it is the latter, having just over 50% can be a bit of a problem when pushing legislation.

  21. #51
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
    She does, but FDP and Greens together is going to be weird.

    With such a weird electoral system, I'm not sure who "owns" the seat in the end, party or the individual member. If it is the latter, having just over 50% can be a bit of a problem when pushing legislation.
    Depends on what you mean by own. Technically the members of the parliament cannot be forced to vote along party lines, but in most cases they do. The party also cannot take away their mandate once it is given (so I guess you would say the members "own the seat"). It does not seem to matter whether they were directly elected or placed by being on a party list. I just found cases where parliamentarians switched party affiliation but kept their seat. That's a loss for their former party and a gain for their new party. Alternatively they can become independent. Of course such an action may make it less likely for them to get another mandate in the next election.

    The cases I found were mostly on state level though, I'd think a coalition between the three parties could work. As I told Fragony, the Greens can be flexible with their morals and neither the CDU nor the FDP are strictly against environmental protection. I'm pretty sure they all believe in man-made global warming etc. The biggest debate topics I would expect around how far the FDP can go with corporate cronyism, how high the student loans can be that the FDP cronies can give to poorer families to suck them dry even more and how many more public services and infrastructure we should privatize...


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  22. #52

    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Can we fold other elections and electoral events going on right now into this thread?

    Iraqi Kurdistan seems set to choose independence in a vote rejected by pretty much the whole world, and Spain is going jackboots on Catalonia over the impending referendum.
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  23. #53
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Can we fold other elections and electoral events going on right now into this thread?

    Iraqi Kurdistan seems set to choose independence in a vote rejected by pretty much the whole world, and Spain is going jackboots on Catalonia over the impending referendum.
    https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...-(Please-Read)

    After some discussion, staff believes that large catch-all threads aren't the most conducive to open discussion. For example, rather than putting all posts relating to anything about President Trump in one thread, more targeted threads about the individual issues should make for easier reading and discussion.


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    Master of Few Words Senior Member KukriKhan's Avatar
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    Cool Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Be well. Do good. Keep in touch.

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  25. #55
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    The childless Mutti can't form a government it seems, Germany has never been this unstable (and yeah I know but that was then we can't hold that against them, talking post WW2 Germany). Will she das Schulzen or not, interesting.

  26. #56
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    I think unstable is a bit of a dramatization. I fully understand why the SPD does not want a coalition with Merkel again, they can only lose in the end. The same people who now pressure them to do it may not vote for them later if they do...
    A new election would be interesting. Make Politics Exciting Again!


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  27. #57
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Just saw that the SPD wants to negotiate now (because the president begged them to find a solution without a new election), but if they come to any agreement, they want their members to vote on it. Perhaps they have a very strong position now for the negotiations, but last time they got a lot of their ideas done but somehow Merkel got a lot of the credit and the SPD still lost votes, so it's a strange situation IMO.


    "Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu

  28. #58
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Schultz is going to be schafted by his own party I t think, maybe it's waterloo for the childless mutti as well. For German voters it makes sense that there will be a government with the christian-democrats and social-democrats but these two ego's will have to go Lord of the Flies on eachother somewhere else I reckon. Because it's Germany it's going to be boring but effective

    Schultz is a pretty nice guy by the way, shared a coffee with him and his wife, they just decided they could share a table with us. Gave her some fruit and cheese I bought at bio-market, I hope he disliked it
    Last edited by Fragony; 11-24-2017 at 15:35.

  29. #59
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    A new election would be interesting. Make Politics Exciting Again!
    What if the new one yields the same (or almost the same) results?
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  30. #60
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    What if the new one yields the same (or almost the same) results?
    Then its 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss."
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

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